9 Net winning trades, the road to being a Pro Trader?

[forker]

oh boy

oh girl

 

[Pipstream]

Right lads I have an interesting twist to this saga and perhaps might dabble in it on this theme. So I started playing with options and have found it to be an interesting alternative.

So say you deposit 10 into an account. Different instruments have different payouts so say eurusd pays out 80%. You place a trade on a direction (put or call) and you set an expiry could be a few minutes, hours, week or month. Once you place your trade it's a matter of time and direction. You can close the trade in profit but its at a lower percentage. If you leave until maturity then you get the % return back of the instrument. So while it isn't operating on a 2/1 rr basis it is removing the need for a stop. The other element to this is you don't use any leverage so you can have 10 pounds in the account and bet all of it and only lose the 10

My plan is to start with 50 pounds every week and to do 10 successful trades each at full whack. On an average return of 85 percent return per successful trade i should have about 23k. I am not sure how this will function in return percentage when trading news but let's see

I can afford 50 a week and do get strings of winners that can make this possible. If I can do 5 weeks out of a year that's 100k and if I don't I lose 2600 over a year. Before I start I plan on fine tuning how I am going to run this in terms of expiry. Should be interesting

Hi Forker,

As I said earlier, I am new to this forum, but like you I have been a trader for many years. I thought this was a very original approach to this project and as you said, "Should be interesting". I really agreed with that.

But I am really surprised that your original post has been followed by little more than negative comment concerning only the structural nature of binary options and its remuneration and nothing that contributes to the concept itself.

Chalky-trader also said right at the start of this thread, "Like i've said before there's so much negativity in these forums".

I also completed my third level on EU today (and will continue with the project) but I am quitting the forum here. It is not a very constructive place to be. So I wish you all well and apologies to you for having stuck my nose in here.

Good luck to everyone for the rest of 2017!

 

[forker]

It's definitely full of negativity

 

[Oscar Reed]

 

[Chalky_trader]

Hi Forker,

As I said earlier, I am new to this forum, but like you I have been a trader for many years. I thought this was a very original approach to this project and as you said, "Should be interesting". I really agreed with that.

But I am really surprised that your original post has been followed by little more than negative comment concerning only the structural nature of binary options and its remuneration and nothing that contributes to the concept itself.

Chalky-trader also said right at the start of this thread, "Like i've said before there's so much negativity in these forums".

I also completed my third level on EU today (and will continue with the project) but I am quitting the forum here. It is not a very constructive place to be. So I wish you all well and apologies to you for having stuck my nose in here.

Good luck to everyone for the rest of 2017!

Be a shame to loose you Pipstream

Keep us posted as to how you get on, even if its by PM

Good luck with it, i hope you make it to level 9

 

[seekingTruth16]

To say that there is this 30% commission is smoke and mirrors. A commission is something that is taken into account over and above a value. So if there was a commission it would be 100% + 30% which isn't the case. When you win you don't win 100% minus 30% commission because the profit is coming directly out of the broker which holds the other side of the trade. Now if you are stating this is a theoretical commission then that's not the same thing. The nature of this binary business from what i can see is they limit their exposure by reducing the payout. It's nothing more than a bet of direction and time. They make their money because so many don't know what they are doing yet, you can apply the same analysis principles to the instruments and trade them successfully.

The strategy is definitely not a 2:1 like the thread is geared towards but you can still gain a good deal of profit along the similar principles. whatever the outcome i am going to have a whirl starting with 10 pounds and the strategy i will adopt is news trading with an expiry at the end of the day. Like i do in my normal news trading routine except targets and stops.

I am not sure how the system will operate during news so i am keeping an open mind

I think the point is that it's a transaction cost. Whether it's spread, commission, slippage, all combined become the transaction cost.

Given no knowledge of trading, you will be right 50% of the time, so even a spread of 49.5/50.5 would be quite a large transaction cost. If they are charging 45/55 or whatever, that's huge isn't it?

Forker have you considered the difference between
a) £1 binary bet with bid ask spread 45/55 you win you get £45, if you lose, you lose £55
b) £1 bet on eurusd with bid ask spread of 1 pip, target 45 pips, stop loss 55 pips? (or £x bet on whatever, target 45/x, stop loss 55/x if you are worried about neither being hit in the same time as a binary option would)

Which is the better value for money, all things being equal?

Good luck with your attempt, but I feel you have to give yourself the best opportunity/odds for success.

 

[forker]

I think the point is that it's a transaction cost. Whether it's spread, commission, slippage, all combined become the transaction cost.

Given no knowledge of trading, you will be right 50% of the time, so even a spread of 49.5/50.5 would be quite a large transaction cost. If they are charging 45/55 or whatever, that's huge isn't it?

Forker have you considered the difference between
a) £1 binary bet with bid ask spread 45/55 you win you get £45, if you lose, you lose £55
b) £1 bet on eurusd with bid ask spread of 1 pip, target 45 pips, stop loss 55 pips? (or £x bet on whatever, target 45/x, stop loss 55/x if you are worried about neither being hit in the same time as a binary option would)

Which is the better value for money, all things being equal?

Good luck with your attempt, but I feel you have to give yourself the best opportunity/odds for success.

I see your point and it relates to everyone else's standpoint on this. I don't trade like anyone here (well 99.9% of you at least). You look at that scenario and you see a risk that is greater than the reward, and in relevance to the way 99.9% of you trade, it stands out as a problem. In this regard i 100% agree however, getting back to how i do things which is why i don't see it that way. As a technical trader you really have no way of knowing if a trade is going to work or not so you take them all and rely on strict risk management. This is why it is generally advised to focus on gaining greater rewards than you risk so that you can absorb the inevitable cost of trading probability.

I don't operate under these guidelines because i don't trade probability and instead trade the pricing-in of data that has yet to be accounted for. To make it even more clear, i don't even look at charts in my trading process. Instead i focus my efforts on studying economies and central banks. So as a trade example, every morning i revise a list of the strongest to weakest currencies which i do using previous research and current sentiment. I plan my day according to economic releases and i only act when there is a deviation. Before a news event is released i already know which pair to trade matching strongest and weakest. When the news is released, if it is a deviation then i will be in a trade using the average daily range for targets and an absolute risk of 2%. Unlike trading probability i am trading the repricing triggered by something all participants can see.

So getting back to your examples, they don't mean anything to me in the way i do things, technical traders just can't seem to get their heads around this difference and can only relate to what i am saying in context to how they do things.My last genuine losing trade was 2016-10-10 where there was an oversight on my research. I had one more recent mistake where i failed to pair currencies correctly on 2016-12-07 and closed it for 2 pips loss. I never have losing trades that can be attributed to a probability method that requires greater rewards to pay for the losses. I am happy to take an opportunity that pays out less than i risk.

 

[NickBk]

I see your point and it relates to everyone else's standpoint on this. I don't trade like anyone here (well 99.9% of you at least). You look at that scenario and you see a risk that is greater than the reward, and in relevance to the way 99.9% of you trade, it stands out as a problem. In this regard i 100% agree however, getting back to how i do things which is why i don't see it that way. As a technical trader you really have no way of knowing if a trade is going to work or not so you take them all and rely on strict risk management. This is why it is generally advised to focus on gaining greater rewards than you risk so that you can absorb the inevitable cost of trading probability.

I don't operate under these guidelines because i don't trade probability and instead trade the pricing-in of data that has yet to be accounted for. To make it even more clear, i don't even look at charts in my trading process. Instead i focus my efforts on studying economies and central banks. So as a trade example, every morning i revise a list of the strongest to weakest currencies which i do using previous research and current sentiment. I plan my day according to economic releases and i only act when there is a deviation. Before a news event is released i already know which pair to trade matching strongest and weakest. When the news is released, if it is a deviation then i will be in a trade using the average daily range for targets and an absolute risk of 2%. Unlike trading probability i am trading the repricing triggered by something all participants can see.

So getting back to your examples, they don't mean anything to me in the way i do things, technical traders just can't seem to get their heads around this difference and can only relate to what i am saying in context to how they do things.My last genuine losing trade was 2016-10-10 where there was an oversight on my research. I had one more recent mistake where i failed to pair currencies correctly on 2016-12-07 and closed it for 2 pips loss. I never have losing trades that can be attributed to a probability method that requires greater rewards to pay for the losses. I am happy to take an opportunity that pays out less than i risk.

Good to note your two losing trades were only your error so can be remedied.

Will you start typing in green caps soon?

If only your moniker started with a P........from one of the 99.9%

 

[forker]

Good to note your two losing trades were only your error so can be remedied.

Will you start typing in green caps soon?

If only your moniker started with a P........from one of the 99.9%

I'll start writing in pink to keep in tune with your b!tching like a little girl.

 

[forker]

Good to note your two losing trades were only your error so can be remedied.

Will you start typing in green caps soon?

If only your moniker started with a P........from one of the 99.9%

Might I suggest you replace the N in your name to D

 

[NickBk]

I'll start writing in pink to keep in tune with your b!tching like a little girl.

LOL yes you are super, a guy points out that making 50/50 binary bets and paying 30% comms and you lose the plot, nice, I can see you are suited to this.

 

[forker]

LOL yes you are super, a guy points out that making 50/50 binary bets and paying 30% comms and you lose the plot, nice, I can see you are suited to this.

you really are a stupid moron. Sick to death of people like you who. Done with this place it's full of retards

 

[Chalky_trader]

you really are a stupid moron. Sick to death of people like you who. Done with this place it's full of retards

so another poster is thinking of leaving the thread, i can see now why my thoughts of getting a few traders willing to join in were doomed

its hard enough trading without having to justify what you are doing to people that probably cant trade their way out of a paper bag.

i say ignore them Forker, if you have a plan go with it, who cares what views others have. Id only take notice of them if they had shown some positive contribution or were doing the challenge, and were one step ahead of me!

 

[tar]

so another poster is thinking of leaving the thread, i can see now why my thoughts of getting a few traders willing to join in were doomed

its hard enough trading without having to justify what you are doing to people that probably cant trade their way out of a paper bag.

i say ignore them Forker, if you have a plan go with it, who cares what views others have. Id only take notice of them if they had shown some positive contribution or were doing the challenge, and were one step ahead of me!

But why the sensitivity , these are trading forums so it is well expected to have discussions and arguments about trading , i say no harm as long as respect is mutual .

 

[NickBk]

so another poster is thinking of leaving the thread, i can see now why my thoughts of getting a few traders willing to join in were doomed

its hard enough trading without having to justify what you are doing to people that probably cant trade their way out of a paper bag.

i say ignore them Forker, if you have a plan go with it, who cares what views others have. Id only take notice of them if they had shown some positive contribution or were doing the challenge, and were one step ahead of me!

If someone is leaving for me pointing out that they are thinking of trading an instrument that 1. Is not an option at all 2. Has enormous costs 3. It may not be suitable for any kind of investing. It was a comment, not personal or with sarcasm and because he went of on one trying to justify it and took it wrongly and then got narky with me.

Let them leave if they are want and go justify this to others. It is a forum and not a nursery, people post with an intention of dialogue and not a sermon, particularly when they are misguided. Others are entitled to comment and share a view if not wanted then make a private thread or a trading journal but spare us from expecting experienced traders to swallow that rubbish.

 

[tar]

Looking at forker's profile :

Trading Biography
done with this forum - signing out for good

__________

I say thats a bit excessive , nothing happened here , just a couple of members pointed out how traders lose alot of edge in binary options , so other members in the future will come here and read and take note .

 

[Fugazsy]

You are losing it Tar.

 

[Chalky_trader]

If someone is leaving for me pointing out that they are thinking of trading an instrument that 1. Is not an option at all 2. Has enormous costs 3. It may not be suitable for any kind of investing. It was a comment, not personal or with sarcasm and because he went of on one trying to justify it and took it wrongly and then got narky with me.

Let them leave if they are want and go justify this to others. It is a forum and not a nursery, people post with an intention of dialogue and not a sermon, particularly when they are misguided. Others are entitled to comment and share a view if not wanted then make a private thread or a trading journal but spare us from expecting experienced traders to swallow that rubbish.

Fair comment i suppose

maybe i'm getting a bit sensitive too :-0

 

[Signalcalc]

Bloody hell, I was looking forward to this thread staying on topic and not turning into a personal attack fest. Surely there are enough adults on this forum that are capable of understanding the myriad of different trading styles and approaches to allow one another some leeway.

This is an experimental trading thread why have a go?

Of course I might be missing some history between the parties involved that have fallen out previously.

I've been interested in Forkers approach to trading for a while and I'm capable of filtering billsh1t.

Can't you guys live and let live or is it all too much for your egos [emoji38]

 

[timsk]

. . . I am quitting the forum here. It is not a very constructive place to be. . .

. . .Done with this place it's full of retards

Hi @Pipstream and @forker,
I'm very sorry to see you both go - if that's what you decide to do. I urge you to consider the following points and, having done so, I hope you'll decide to stay and continue posting as you'd originally intended. . .

1. Keep in mind that for every member who you perceive to be negative or, even, a 'moron', there are two or three others (maybe many more) who enjoy your posts and benefit from reading them. In a forum this size - that's free to join - it's almost inevitable that there will be a handful of members you find unreasonable and/or offensive. To allow yourselves to be hounded out because of them is to place a burden of expectation on T2W that is pretty much impossible to fulfil.

2. It's for this very reason (1. above) that we have the 'Ignore' feature along with the red flag 'Report Post' feature. If you take umbrage at what others post, simply bypass the problem by putting the member(s) concerned on ignore. Spare a thought for me while you're about it because, as a member of staff, this facility is not available to me! If a post breaches our Community Constitution, please report it and the Moderators will take appropriate action.

3. It's up to each of us to decide whether or not we take offense and get upset at what others say in response to our posts. The other day I re-read part of an old thread that - at the time - I was very wound up by and felt pretty pi$$ed off at the comments aimed at me. I thought the member(s) concerned were being totally unreasonable and rude. Now, a few years on, I wondered why I'd had a such a strong reaction. Their comments didn't strike me as being nearly as bad as they had at the time. I suspect you both may feel the same way about this thread once the dust has settled.

4. Some members aren't at all diplomatic and their posting style is naturally abrasive and confrontational. This is unfortunate, but one has to make allowances. Besides, molly coddling everyone's ego is surprisingly difficult and time consuming. I know because, as a member of staff, I have to do it all the time. So, try to focus on the point being made, as opposed to the language being used to make it, as often as not it's reasonable enough and may even have some validity. If, as is so easy to do, one focuses instead on the way the post is worded and you take offense - it then becomes very hard to appraise the points made fairly and objectively.

5. Lastly, people who resort to using inflammatory language are nearly always on the wrong side of the argument and, even if they're not, it says a lot more about them than it does about the person said language is aimed at. Needless to say, it's not good!

To conclude, take a step back, ignore the people you feel are attacking you and continue posting, safe in the knowledge that others enjoy your contributions and benefit from your insights.

Tim.