I keep on seeing different systems being peddled on the net with the guarantee of X amount of winning trades..........does that mean a minimum number of points (e.g 10 pt) per trade is guarranteed or once the trade has a profit of at least 1 point, it counts as a winning trade?..............I'm just curious.
From my vast experiences of trading super methods I can tell you that authors will claim a win even if its one point.
To make a thousand a day is really simple..you just do 1000 per point !!!
If you want to follow something for gratis them look at the IK website
Jane
To make a thousand a day is really simple..you just do 1000 per point !!!
If you want to follow something for gratis them look at the IK website
Jane
china white
Established member
- Messages
- 979
- Likes
- 12
imho a winning trade is the one where U did YR best and can be proud of.
sometimes u lose money but u know both entry and exit were the best under circumstances. in that case i call it a winning trade as well.
and quite recently e.g. my luvly broker forgot abt my order and kept 10 SP futs running overnight. next morning when i discovered that I was up 5 pts - but this is a losing trade by any standard imho.
sometimes u lose money but u know both entry and exit were the best under circumstances. in that case i call it a winning trade as well.
and quite recently e.g. my luvly broker forgot abt my order and kept 10 SP futs running overnight. next morning when i discovered that I was up 5 pts - but this is a losing trade by any standard imho.
i think they mean it to be a trade that shows a profit on closure of position, some may allow for commissions and slippage, you could always ask them details on risk to reward stats, %Drawdowns to help show a clearer? picture in their ADVERTISEMENT. and take it from there.
jd
jd
CityTrader
Established member
- Messages
- 666
- Likes
- 26
Only one type of winnign trade- one in which you make a profit. simple. As in the old adage "never let a winnign trade, turn into a losing one"
Hey, China - I hear the bonus rounds are pretty crappy this year- down on last year - a few walk outs at UBS, Goldmans pretty pissed off. Glad you're out? I certainly am!!
Hey, China - I hear the bonus rounds are pretty crappy this year- down on last year - a few walk outs at UBS, Goldmans pretty pissed off. Glad you're out? I certainly am!!
cassiopeia
Active member
- Messages
- 155
- Likes
- 4
Beware of systems which claim a high % of winners, although they may be telling the truth this is irrelevant if the amount you win per trade is far less than the amount you lose per trade.
Only winning systems are important, this is where the overall amount of money you win is consistently greater than the overall amount of money you lose.
Some systems have a 30% success rate and are profitable others could have a 70% success rate and lose.
Only winning systems are important, this is where the overall amount of money you win is consistently greater than the overall amount of money you lose.
Some systems have a 30% success rate and are profitable others could have a 70% success rate and lose.
Agreed cassiopa
Vendors peddle systems with a reported high win rate to make the system more marketable. A high win rate system is psychologically easier to trade - ie stick with through a losing streak. Many vendors will optimise a system to make it have the highest win rate possible over a certain period of time to make it look good. However, get it in to the real world and the win rate may not be so high and unless the total wins outstrip the total losses, the system will slowly (or quickly) lose a load of cash.
% winning trades is useless info unless you also know the average win/loss, drawdown info v total return etc. ie the full picture.
Vendors peddle systems with a reported high win rate to make the system more marketable. A high win rate system is psychologically easier to trade - ie stick with through a losing streak. Many vendors will optimise a system to make it have the highest win rate possible over a certain period of time to make it look good. However, get it in to the real world and the win rate may not be so high and unless the total wins outstrip the total losses, the system will slowly (or quickly) lose a load of cash.
% winning trades is useless info unless you also know the average win/loss, drawdown info v total return etc. ie the full picture.
Grubs if you enetered a trade and its showing a point, it is winning, its an UNREALISED profit(well unrealised winner, commisions and all that, but dont hang on hoping it will move to cover costs), Just as a losing trade down a point would be an UNREALISED loser.
Traders need? to REALISE and act either way, but a loss or winner are what they are even if you havent closed out the position. Realise this and if your method is to close out at whatever point you planned for based on whatever method you employ ie price action or point stops then close them out. Realise the winner or loss, whatever time frame you trade.
Again systems simple ones do work but its " Humans who do not realise the unrealised"
Therefore the flaw lies in the individual, back to ego, being right not wanting to be wrong.
As for systems you have the ultimate one sitting between your ears, we just need to program that, then when you come to trade your method, hang your ego up before you sit down.
Jd
Traders need? to REALISE and act either way, but a loss or winner are what they are even if you havent closed out the position. Realise this and if your method is to close out at whatever point you planned for based on whatever method you employ ie price action or point stops then close them out. Realise the winner or loss, whatever time frame you trade.
Again systems simple ones do work but its " Humans who do not realise the unrealised"
Therefore the flaw lies in the individual, back to ego, being right not wanting to be wrong.
As for systems you have the ultimate one sitting between your ears, we just need to program that, then when you come to trade your method, hang your ego up before you sit down.
Jd
hmmm i think the time will come when the system developers slot in Artificial Intelligence Units or AIU or perhaps even better AITU Artificial Intelligent Trading Unit into the black boxes to trade on their masters behalf, but sadly as is the world going the machines will be the ones living the experience and humans will be popping Prozac a plenty, and trying to tell the AITU "I dont care if the prices are going up and you have intiated optimum Long based on account status to date, bloody go short I'm Tired of this life"
Hmmmm
JD
Oh naturally the ad men would have to gloss up or leave out the word Artificial eventually because they'll be marketing these high cost chips at sophisticated people who know the word Artificial means False so maybe it will become a "Pentium Intelligence Trading Unit" or PITU for short.... hmmm Get Spielberg on the blower..... The machines taking over ? never happen ? science fiction? probably end up science fact.
Hmmmm
JD
Oh naturally the ad men would have to gloss up or leave out the word Artificial eventually because they'll be marketing these high cost chips at sophisticated people who know the word Artificial means False so maybe it will become a "Pentium Intelligence Trading Unit" or PITU for short.... hmmm Get Spielberg on the blower..... The machines taking over ? never happen ? science fiction? probably end up science fact.
I am not saying that all systems that claim a high win rate are a con. It is perfectly feasible for a system to have a win rate of say 70 to 80% and be a winning system as long as the average win is not so small that 1 or 2 losing trades out of 10 turns it into a loser. You would also want to try and ensure that if the success rate fell, that you would still be breaking even or turning a small profit.
ie. if the average winning trade has a risk reward of 1:1, then the success rate could fall to 50% and still break even.
Therefore, a system that has a win rate of 80% with average r:r of 1:1 has quite a bit of leeway before it turns into a losing system.
One that has a reward:risk of 0.33:1 only needs to drop to 70% win rate to be a losing system.
A low win rate system can also be good as long as the average r:r is high enough to make it profitable. ie 30% win rate with r:r of 5:1 is better than 80% with 1:1.
Get the whole picture is what I would say and also try to ensure you are confident a system would work across a range of market conditions, not just a period that it has been conveniently tested and possibly optimised on.
One other thing I would say is that purchased systems can be psychologically very difficult to follow. ie if it is not the traders own system, they have no real confidence in it and end up not taking trades that could have been winners etc which can also lead to poor performance that is not the fault of the system, but the individual trading it.
ie. if the average winning trade has a risk reward of 1:1, then the success rate could fall to 50% and still break even.
Therefore, a system that has a win rate of 80% with average r:r of 1:1 has quite a bit of leeway before it turns into a losing system.
One that has a reward:risk of 0.33:1 only needs to drop to 70% win rate to be a losing system.
A low win rate system can also be good as long as the average r:r is high enough to make it profitable. ie 30% win rate with r:r of 5:1 is better than 80% with 1:1.
Get the whole picture is what I would say and also try to ensure you are confident a system would work across a range of market conditions, not just a period that it has been conveniently tested and possibly optimised on.
One other thing I would say is that purchased systems can be psychologically very difficult to follow. ie if it is not the traders own system, they have no real confidence in it and end up not taking trades that could have been winners etc which can also lead to poor performance that is not the fault of the system, but the individual trading it.
This one takes the biscuit!
Hi Grubs50
I just came across a trading system being plugged on the Internet. The claims are amazing to say the least. Made me think...if this guy is right then we are all wasting our time here, even the experienced traders - if only life was that simple
I'll stick around here me finks!
Hi Grubs50
I just came across a trading system being plugged on the Internet. The claims are amazing to say the least. Made me think...if this guy is right then we are all wasting our time here, even the experienced traders - if only life was that simple
I'll stick around here me finks!
The system may be a good one, but the promoter probably discovered and then decided it's far easier to sell a system rather than to trade it, requires far less stellar confidence and nerves of steel no doubt...and better odds attached. At almost £1,777 don't have to sell many to make a living :cheesy:
He just has to get people in a buy...buy...buy and buy NOW frame of mind and he's done!
Like you said, it is so easy for us newbie's to be lured. I'm glad I came here, as I have now put up my shields - think before I sink
RESISTANCE is futile, but there's plenty of SUPPORT in here - as I have found
He just has to get people in a buy...buy...buy and buy NOW frame of mind and he's done!
Like you said, it is so easy for us newbie's to be lured. I'm glad I came here, as I have now put up my shields - think before I sink
RESISTANCE is futile, but there's plenty of SUPPORT in here - as I have found
CatBounce, u have made a good decision IMHO..........u get to improve ur knowledge by reading thru the various threads and other trading literature u can lay ur hands on .......from my personal experience, u r ultimately gonna get to learn from ur mistakes when u r trading for real and that is what is going to improve ur trading in d long run cos what works for someone else may not neccesarilly work 4 u...........
Hi Grubs50
Yes, you are so right. Since coming here I realise that trading is a very individualistic/personal thing and one man's meat is another man's poision. The only way to find out what suits you is to get in the trenches and give it a go to find your grove. Providing of course you don't dive in head first without a working plan and knowing what type of trader you want to be. This site has helps me decide that and at present, I am just gathering, researching and trying to absorbe the knowledge I need to get started.
I do intend to paper trade first of course, but I know a lot have said there is no substitute to trading for real, as you said...that is when you really learn! I'm a long way of that yet, but hopefully, I will get to that point one day when i feel confidence with my trading system
I have been considering doing the 1-2-1 day training with NAZ to give me a head start, as I am finding the charting stuff a bit hard at the moment and to have someone explain it to you first hand, I am sure, would benefit me and help accelerate my learning process.
Otherwise, I'll have to plod on...it's always hard at the beginning whatever you desire to learn!
Yes, you are so right. Since coming here I realise that trading is a very individualistic/personal thing and one man's meat is another man's poision. The only way to find out what suits you is to get in the trenches and give it a go to find your grove. Providing of course you don't dive in head first without a working plan and knowing what type of trader you want to be. This site has helps me decide that and at present, I am just gathering, researching and trying to absorbe the knowledge I need to get started.
I do intend to paper trade first of course, but I know a lot have said there is no substitute to trading for real, as you said...that is when you really learn! I'm a long way of that yet, but hopefully, I will get to that point one day when i feel confidence with my trading system
I have been considering doing the 1-2-1 day training with NAZ to give me a head start, as I am finding the charting stuff a bit hard at the moment and to have someone explain it to you first hand, I am sure, would benefit me and help accelerate my learning process.
Otherwise, I'll have to plod on...it's always hard at the beginning whatever you desire to learn!
