$50,000 Challange

Latest Update on $50,000 Forex Challenge

Another week of trading ahead volatility expected to continue. I will publish tuesday's positions on Monday around 11 p.m GMT.

Balance:
$61,199


Equity:
$59,393


Current Performance
+6.0%


Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
28% (Yes), 59% (No), 13% (Not sure)
 
Latest Update on $50,000 Forex Challenge

60% of last weeks gains lost as markets return back from holiday indecisive. A lesson to learn perhaps skip long weekend holiday trading an obvious disconnect for the model.

Balance:
$50,974


Equity:
$50,974


Current Performance
-13.9%

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
30% (Yes), 57.5% (No), 12.5% (Not sure)
 
Latest Consensus

Tuesdays positions have now been published

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
29% (Yes), 59% (No), 12% (Not sure)
 
Latest Update on $50,000 Forex Challenge

Today the model is still suffering from the Easter holiday, however some gains were made by additional hedging. Those that took up position would have made little profits and likely losses. However this is obviously having great impact on the bottom line and my moral. It's proving to be challenging but I remain confident.

* Note: for those that do not know I am trading 7 pairs simultaneously one day in advance using price only.

Balance:
$55,053


Equity:
$48,974


Current Performance
-9.6%

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
30% (Yes), 58% (No), 12% (Not sure)
 
Hey, Goldtip,

I am sorry to hear that you are facing some issues in this challenge...Keep Patience don't loose hope..
I have one little question if I may...I have observed you MM and I was Gobsmacked to see that you could loosed up to 10% in one day....but if you strategy is aggressive I guess it could be valid...
Take care
Happy Trading
Rav
 
Learn from the $50,000 Forex Challenge

rav700 said:
Hey, Goldtip,

I am sorry to hear that you are facing some issues in this challenge...Keep Patience don't loose hope..
I have one little question if I may...I have observed you MM and I was Gobsmacked to see that you could loosed up to 10% in one day....but if you strategy is aggressive I guess it could be valid...
Take care
Happy Trading
Rav
Click to expand...

Thanks for your support Rav most appreciated,

1. I was quite gutted myself however as you rightfully said its being challenged under aggressive terms. One heavy restriction is the model (in this challenge) runs without stop/losses (* not recommended under any circumstances for inexperienced traders) to truly test its worth in terms of hedging (* profit taking will have to be automated in the near future and stop/losses considered and tailored to suit trader)
2. The 10% was over a period of 2 days, Friday, Monday with low participants until US opened w/ indecisive market behavior, however still bad enough !

* Don't think its a good idea to trade the model over a long weekend as it creates a structural break in the data. A lesson to learn and I guess that's the whole purpose of this challenge to reveal weaknesses as well as strengths.

Your comments have been received respectfully.
 
Latest Update on $50,000 Forex Challenge

The model still riddled with losses however there were a few profit taking moments. The model has its work cut out I almost feel I have to pull a rabbit out of a hat.

Balance:
$42,265


Equity:
$41,003


Current Performance
-32.7%

* Please keep voting and leave some words of encouragement.

Journal of a $50000 FOREX Challenge
 
Hi Goldtip ,

I think you need to consider 2 things....the challenge is still on take a break matey..
Revise and re plan your trades this is hard earned money buddy..
Take this week off ...Start again from monday with a fresh head...The markets will be there no matter what....waiting for you too profit from them....

Good luck don't loose hope ..Take these 4 Days to remodel if necessary..at the end of the day you know your strategy better than anyone else.

Take it easy

Rav
 
Learn from the $50,000 Forex Challenge

rav700 said:
Hi Goldtip ,

I think you need to consider 2 things....the challenge is still on take a break matey..
Revise and re plan your trades this is hard earned money buddy..
Take this week off ...Start again from monday with a fresh head...The markets will be there no matter what....waiting for you too profit from them....

Good luck don't loose hope ..Take these 4 Days to remodel if necessary..at the end of the day you know your strategy better than anyone else.

Take it easy

Rav
Click to expand...

- Rav -

Thanks mate, wise words, in terms of the model it needs a better defined system to compliment it and a bit of automation to close positions once the desired p/l has been reached as it often loses out on profits overnight, furthermore there appears to be excessive market manipulation at the moment because the model can NOT get a grip on the relative trends they are not making price sense at all. Perhaps its the effect of all this printing of money signaling of hyper-inflation to come and further uncertainty.

As always your comments and advice is respectfully received.

* If you can get your hand on an MT4 script to close all positions once the overall p/l has reached a certain percentage of balance or margin that would be appreciated.

Cheers.
 
Latest Consensus

Will the challenge be won the public consensus at this point is:
31% (Yes), 58% (No), 11% (Not sure)
 
Latest Update on $50,000 Forex Challenge

Again the markets were volatile and proven to be under distress as the general consensus drives the market sideways and likely the reason why the model has been having trouble trying to trend the relative prices. This could be a result of massive amounts of money being printed and pumped into the system while each economic boundary competes for competitive (goods & services) prices.

Balance:
$45,402


Equity:
$40,566


Current Performance
-29.2%

* Please continue to vote at Journal of a $50000 FOREX Challenge
 
Review

After 14 days of trading, the model had performed beyond expectations returning a profit of 22% within 10 days. However based on the strong criteria to return 100% in 30 days with low risk the model began to stress and failed to produce continuous results with a loss of 20% for a number of reasons as follows;


1. Market prices appear to be extremely unfounded perhaps due to the massive printing of money in the trillions of dollars, economic uncertainty and financial chaos.

2. A system needs to be developed to compliment the hedge recommended by the model which is current done on a per trader basis to suit their own risk criteria.

However in terms of the challenge all positions were opened together and closed together, profit taking opportunities were lost and stop losses could have been better prevented while unsupervised, so automation will be required.

3. Additional tools are required to measure price distortion perhaps against other basket of assets and on a more granular level i.e. intraday as forecasts are currently predicted on a daily basis.

On this basis the challenge will end here and a more detailed analysis will be published in the near future. New tools will be developed and tested to compliment the model at such time a new challenge will be waged.


* Of course this challenge was designed to put the model through extreme stress it did well and will do better with automation.

** I am currently developing a web system that will assist traders of all abilities which will be launched latest 30th of April 2009 at

Welcome to Jenario - FOREX Expert System

Thank you for all your support.
 
Update on the $50,000 Forex Challenge

Hi Guys,

Just an update for those interested. I have been working very hard ;) on establishing a technical system and improved risk management for my forex model. I am likely to begin the new challenge on the 27th of April '09.

If there are any question you would like to ask or additional statistics that I can provide during the course of the challenge let me know.

Respectfully

Goldtip
 
Update on the $50,000 Forex Challenge

Hi Guys,

For those that don't already know a new challenge will begin this Sunday 26th April '09.

I have been re-assessing my risk management strategy to support the model and which now forms a major part of the ongoing development of the system, especially to maintain profitability against leverage as the account begins to grow.

Use this challenge as a way to get to know how my model performs, a measure against other systems and to learn from.

For a more detailed blog checkout Journal of a $50000 FOREX Challenge: Announcement of a $50,000 Forex Challenge Part 2 and of course remember to vote.

Respectfully

- Goldtip -
 
Less than 5 hours to go...

This week is expecting to be another volatile one. However I shall be giving out my daily positions every now and again as usual for those interested.
 
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