28th February 2019 - GBPUSD is still able to maintain gains close to 1.33

Walid Salah Eldin

Active member
GBPUSD is still capable of trading close to 1.33, after it had become concluded that there will be delaying of Brexit, as long as there is no reached deal yet.

Meanwhile, The Common House is expected to vote on next Mar. 14 on prolonging the Brexit negotiations beyond Mar. 29 "the predetermined date of executing Article 50", After widely expected refusing of May's amended plan on Mar. 12 and rejecting the proposal of leaving with no Brexit deal on Mar. 13.

This extension is not a solution but it expresses about the will and the probability of finding a solution and that was enough to boost demand for the British pound.

In the same time, the UK Labor party leader Jeremy Corbyn is looking to lead the demand for new referendum, after he had failed previously to drive the government down by confidence voting on May who gained it marginally by 21 votes, despite the historical massive disapproval of her reached deal with EU by 230 margin votes on last Jan. 15!

From his side, BOE Chief Mark Carney warned again about the threat of disorder leaving is not the main scenario of BOE.

Carney has mentioned previously that the hard Brexit can lead to 7.7% GDP fall and up to 25% Sterling depreciation, shrinking of the housing market, dampening of the business sentiment and the economic outlook.

However The European Council President Donald Tusk who praised the demand for delaying Brexit this week from Egypt is still confirming on that the Irish backstop is a part of the withdrawal deal and it is not up for renegotiations.

His praising came, after PM May had been answered in Brussels by European demand for securing the changes she wants on the Irish backstop in the House of Common, before asking EU to pass these changes.

From the other side of the Atlantic, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer

capped the risk appetite by his testify before the house committee yesterday, as he said that the deal with China is still too early to be reached.

Lighthizer's comment came this time following strain between him and Trump not between him and the Chinese representatives!

In the same time, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's 2 days testifying gave a little to the markets about the interest rate outlook, while the equities were waiting for more dovish words.

After the FOMC recent meeting minutes reopened last week market talking about the Fed's Balance sheet, he said yesterday that he will soon clarify a plan to halt the shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet which includes what's close but below $4trn of assets value.

The minutes said that It would be appropriate to adjust details of the balance sheet normalization on the current economic and financial developments to reach the Committee's macroeconomic objectives.

The speculation of watching Fed's ending of QT shrinking later this year rose following the minutes release, but this is in need for communication paving and what the Fed started.

Anyway, it was considered a dovish unexpected message from the Fed and the greenback reacted negatively to it.

GBPUSD-Daily-28-02-2019 12-01-33 م.png

After forming a higher low at 1.2968, GBPUSD extended its rising to1.3349, before retreating for trading close to 1.33 unable to drop down its previous formed resistance on Jul. 9 at 1.3362.
GBPUSD which gained higher momentum this week is now in its eighth day of consecutive being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.2918.
GBPUSD is still also underpinned by being well above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and also its daily SMA200 became below the pair, after bouncing up from 1.2968 by the end of last week to form a higher low above its formed bottom on Feb. 14 at 1.2772.
GBPUSD daily RSI-14 is now referring to existence inside the overbought area above 70 reading 70.639.
GBPUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line inside its overbought territory above 80 at 88.978 leading to the upside its signal line which is lower inside this same region reading 87.442, After positive crossover on forming 1.2968 bottom.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.2895, Daily SMA100 @ 1.2932 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.3259
Experienced S&R:
S1: 1.2968
S2: 1.2772
S3: 1.2668
R1: 1.3362
R2: 1.3472
R3: 1.3617

Kind Regards

Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends

Walid Salah El Din
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