12th March 2019 - The optimistic news about Brexit could boost demand for GBP

Walid Salah Eldin

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The British Pound extended its gains across the broad during the Asian session reaching 1.3288 versus the greenback close, after it had been trading earlier in the beginning of the week close to 1.2960.

The pound has been boosted by news telling about Brexit negations progress between May and Junker in Strasbourg, before tomorrow meeting to reach last minute deal ahead of The House of Common voting on May's plan update which was widely expected to be rejected on continued discrepancies over the Irish boarders backstops between UK and EU.
The pound started to rise across the broad, after Theresa May’s deputy David Lidington had announced that she could secure legally binding changes to her Brexit deal.

In case of refusing these new changes today, The Common House is expected to vote tomorrow on prolonging the Brexit negotiations beyond Mar. 29 "the predetermined date of executing Article 50"



The optimistic news about Brexit could send the US equities indexes future rates up further, following yesterday gains which supported the risk appetite in the beginning of today Asian session, despite the woes of Boeing shares over dovish news about its 737 Max airplane.

The US equities could show solidarity to rise yesterday, after US retails sales have shown unexpected rising in January by 0.2% month on month, while the consensus was referring to no monthly change, after collapse by 1.2% in December has been revised to be by 1.6%.

The underling retails sales figure excluding auto sales was more upbeating by 0.9% monthly rising, while the market was waiting for increasing by only 0.3%, after falling in December by 1.8% has been revised too to be by 2.1%.

After forming hammer reversing sign, S&P 500 could have a place back above its daily SMA200 containing most of last week losses trading now close to 2792.

While the market will be waiting today for new comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who indicated during the weekend that the Fed is not in rush nor under pressure to raise rates further. Powell assured in the same time on that the US economy is not threatened by recession this year.



The markets are well-priced now on no Fed's will to raise rates further this year, while the US economic data are tilting to the downside illustrating losing momentum, amid dominating worries about global economic slowdown can hold the major central banks back from raising rates.

The precious metals like gold could have higher demand in this situation which can be struck by higher inflation rates like what we have seen last Friday.

When US non-farm payrolls have shown in February adding of 20k, While the average earning per hour rose yearly by 3.4% recording the highest rate of yearly rising since April 2009 showing higher wage inflationary pressure.

We have seen also a day earlier Q4 US Unit Labor Cost surging to 2.0% year on year following 0.9% in the third quarter.

In the same period, US non-farm productivity increased by 1.9% yearly beating the consensus which was pointing to increasing by only 1.6%, showing leeway for further higher salaries to be paid by employers.

From another side, the new Fed's adopted patience stance can boost demand for commodities and energy sending their prices higher further driving the inflation up and the interest in gold and TIPS as hedges against inflation.

GBPUSD Daily Chart:

GBPUSD-Daily-12-03-2019 01-12-38 ص.jpg


GBPUSD extended its rebounding to 1.3288 in the Asian session, After it could form a higher low at 1.2959 on meeting with its daily SMA50 and also its daily SMA200 in the beginning of this week, while the pair is still keeping its existence above its daily SMA100.
GBPUSD could gather momentum, after easing of the selling pressure which pressed it down to 1.2959, but it still undermined by continued being below its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.3307.
GBPUSD daily RSI-14 is now referring to higher existence inside the neutral area reading 60.458.
GBPUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line inside its neutral territory at 64.336 leading to the upside its signal line which is lower inside this same region reading only 38.532.
This relatively big discrepancy between the leading main line and the signal line expresses about the higher momentum the pair could gain recently, After positive crossover inside the neural region on forming higher bottom at 1.2959 above its formed bottom on Feb. 14 at 1.2772.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.2984, Daily SMA100 @ 1.2887 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.2987
Experienced S&R:
S1: 1.2959
S2: 1.2772
S3: 1.2668
R1: 1.3362
R2: 1.3472
R3: 1.3617

Kind Regards

Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends

Walid Salah El Din