Recent content by fatowl

Thanks! I'm confused what you mean by "arbitraging the opportunities that used to take a few days to resolve." Do you mean that when a stock is oversold, there were not many high-frequency traders to bring the price back down a little bit? How are you ascertaining this by reading the tape? You...

My end-of-day (EOD) stock trading system simulates very well over the past 50 years or so. I have listed and delisted equities data going back to 1950, and my system's performance evolves over the years in simulation: 1. 1960 - 1974: High trade expectancy and minimal drawdown. 2. 1974 - 1984...

I don't exactly know what order-flow stop-hunting is, but I imagine it is very much like what market makers do. These strategies tend to be mean-reverting. Mean-reverting systems typically have very smooth equity curves until (boom) you get a massive drawdown. The good news is that usually the...

Mr. Crabs, micro-cap investing seems SOOOOO exciting to me.I would LOVE to try this someday when I have 10 hours a week to devote to researching companies. I have always wanted to be an angel investor, which I view as someone with an eye for future success. Being right (profitable) on a...

thenoob, I don't speculate anymore. Also, congrats on your recent run of profitable trades. I figured out a long time ago that asking people on a forum to validate your own opinions on the market usually leads to disappointment. Do you hope to feel better if we all agree that the market will be...

Stock aficionados, we all know that not every trend plays out the same way. Some trends proceed quietly and some proceed with high volatility. The trends with high volatility can be played by trend-followers but the danger is getting stopped by a whipsaw. These types of trends are more...

I'm confused. Did you start this fund or are you thinking of investing in it? Just glancing at the stats you gave throw off red flags. TThere is no indication of whether or not this fund will be long-term profitable. A 94% success ratio is great, but only over about 100 trades and only over the...

Amibroker can plot volume just like ZaBu showed. I had to create my own separate "symbol" within Amibroker named #NYSEDV, which has the total monthly dollar-volume of stocks on the NYSE as the closing value within Amibroker.

I have been backtesting and optimizing trading systems in Amibroker for 4 years now. One system is trading live and is profitable. One thing that I have always needed, but could never get easily, was information on how active a stock was over time. My trading system needs strong volume to trade...

It is useful to know when participants in a particular stock's market is going somewhere in unison. Why? It usually never lasts, and you can bet on opposing behavior in the near future. Contrarian trading/investing is based on this principle. With that in mind, here are some ways I can think of...

Very complex systems that involve signal processing techniques and neural networks or other really intense analysis will typically expire in certain market situations. It's the really simple systems that last for long periods of time. Hypothetical: Will there be a trending stock that makes a...

Sweet! Those guys look like cute little ninjas to me. :-) Must be gorgeous out there in Western Michigan. This makes me happy. You are forcing yourself to be disciplined through using hard rules backed by numbers. It's not just "buy if you have a strong feeling" or "buy when price moves too...

Yup. This is the phenomenon I call "curve-fitting". It is where you have some rules and tweak them to fit a particular historical price series for maximum profit. Of course, history doesn't repeat itself exactly the same as before. The way to get a system that will continue to work in the future...

Intel, this rocks. I'm a big fan of neural networks and have had exposure to them in engineering applications outside of trading. I want to play around with some low-level neural networks for price prediction, but can never find the time to really delve into it. Kudos for getting a system...

Agreed 100%. Check out that link. It is more comprehensive than the Ed Seykota page I linked you earlier. However, Ed has a nice way of explaining things. Both are good in my opinion.