Noconas hourly RSI system

mr_cassandra · Sep 6, 2005

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7584913

THis guy makes a lot of sense and freely posts what he's doing and how, including results that you can verifiy for yourself.

mr_cassandra · Sep 7, 2005

The system explanation

Posted by: nocona
In reply to: kenwong who wrote msg# 2687 Date:9/5/2005 8:34:39 PM
Post #of 2903

Kenwong:

QQQQ / RSI 5 Hourly System informatiom:

When the RSI 5 of an Hourly bar closes below 26 BUY QQQQ
When the RSI 5 of an Hourly bar closes above 70 SELL QQQQ

When the RSI 5 of an Hourly bar closes above 74 SHORT QQQQ
When the RSI 5 of an Hourly bar closes below 30 COVER QQQQ

Make your trade at the end of an Hourly bar

Use a 2% stop loss. Set the stop loss when you make your trade
and use it where ever it occurs even if it occurs in mid hour.

Use a Live Chart where the 1st bar is a full hour (9:30 ET to 10:30 ET)

Since 5-24-05 there have been 29 trades with 25 gains, 3 losses and 1 even for a collective gain of + 20.77% w/o margin and a cummulative gain of +50.61% with max margin

Since I have used Rydex 2X funds a lot, I feel perfectly comfortable using max margin.

If you use options, invest only 10% of allocated money in options and invest 90% in QQQQ

Use slightly in the money near term options

Minder · Sep 28, 2005

I was looking for a system when I came across this thread, it looked simple enough so I thought I would look at the performance given in the original post.

Only problem is that I have access to data from IGIndex on the daily QQQQ.

Should the data give the same result ? A close match ? Or nothing similar ?

mr_cassandra · Sep 28, 2005

re noconas hourly system rsi 5

Most of us following it are using www.prophet.net silver subscription for real-time to replicate his results.

Minder said:
I was looking for a system when I came across this thread, it looked simple enough so I thought I would look at the performance given in the original post.

Only problem is that I have access to data from IGIndex on the daily QQQQ.

Should the data give the same result ? A close match ? Or nothing similar ?

Minder · Sep 29, 2005

mr_cassandra said:
Most of us following it are using www.prophet.net silver subscription for real-time to replicate his results.

Thanks for the info, but that doesn't answer my question.

A quick scan through the hourly chart available from IGIndex using the RSI 5 indicator seems to indicate a much less consistant result.

Admittedly I don't know much about this, and I am not trying to knock Noconas system, just trying to understand how it works. But I have two conclusions, either the data I am looking at is inappropriate or the system does not work.

If the data I have is wrong, I want to know why it is wrong.

jmreeve · Sep 29, 2005

Admittedly I don't know much about this, and I am not trying to knock Noconas system, just trying to understand how it works. But I have two conclusions, either the data I am looking at is inappropriate or the system does not work.

The system does not work.

mr_cassandra · Sep 30, 2005

Morning

I don't have and can't speak for you data. I can only vouch for my own trades where I saw, followed and made money using trades on qqqq with charts from www.prophet.net. Its a free system and not mine so no offense taken. If you want to dieligence it, there is extensinve discussion at www.investorshub.com cs members free board member nocona.

Minder said:
Thanks for the info, but that doesn't answer my question.

A quick scan through the hourly chart available from IGIndex using the RSI 5 indicator seems to indicate a much less consistant result.

Admittedly I don't know much about this, and I am not trying to knock Noconas system, just trying to understand how it works. But I have two conclusions, either the data I am looking at is inappropriate or the system does not work.

If the data I have is wrong, I want to know why it is wrong.

mr_cassandra · Sep 30, 2005

Morning jm

Most of the time when I see a response like this its from an armchair system quarterback who hasn't checked much, if at all on the system in question. bearing in mind I have my own succesful program and am only a fan of noconas system, I'd be interested in what work you have done to check it out so I can go verify what you saw. Noconas system is free and no sales of anything are incvolved here.

jmreeve said:
The system does not work.

jiacopel · Oct 11, 2005

mr_cassandra said:
Most of the time when I see a response like this its from an armchair system quarterback who hasn't checked much, if at all on the system in question. bearing in mind I have my own succesful program and am only a fan of noconas system, I'd be interested in what work you have done to check it out so I can go verify what you saw. Noconas system is free and no sales of anything are incvolved here.

I'd have to agree with him. What happens when you go short and it takes off? You'd lose your ass if you don't have a stop obviously. But even with a stop, you'd end up with several small losses when the market is trending. It doesn't look very profitable at all. Perhaps it could work if more filters were added.

mr_cassandra · Oct 12, 2005

More diligence needed

jiacopel said:
I'd have to agree with him. What happens when you go short and it takes off? You'd lose your ass if you don't have a stop obviously. But even with a stop, you'd end up with several small losses when the market is trending. It doesn't look very profitable at all. Perhaps it could work if more filters were added.

I suspect the prior response did not go and read the overview of what to when with the system. He has a 2% stop and does not try it again when a given signal has been stopped out.

What I run into a lot on these boards is people who don't go check and then issue a standardized opinion without having done the diligence.

So I think the prior posters response mistalenly led you to think there was no stop system and that nocona would enter that bad trade again and again. Not true.

Its a free, public system and well worth checking the original source of it, whose link I posted, before taking casual, undiligenced opinions here.

Regards, Steve

mr_cassandra · Oct 12, 2005

54% including stop-outs since May-25-2005

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7970303

Posted by: nocona In reply to: cyclist
who wrote msg# 6343 Date:10/3/2005 10:22:52 AMPost # of 7616

cyclist:Stopped out at $39.58 (2%) (4% with margin)
Since 5-24-05 There have been 36 trades with 6 losses for a cummulative gain of 54.8% with margin.

Nocona

Worth a look but imo don't take casual posts who say it doesn't work without checking.
Imo way too many armchair system quarterbacks abound on the internet.

momo · Oct 12, 2005

mr cassandra, you sound really keen for all of us to go and check this website out. and i found this post from you just over a year ago. i smell a vendor.

16-06-2004, 12:30 AM #1
mr_cassandra
Senior Member

Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: cape cod, mass, usa
Posts: 132 Fyi on my own system

I am considering offering this as a paid e-mail advisory service after completing one year of publicly posted signals at Clearstation. If you have any interest in this please e-mail me at [email protected]. You will not receives ANY spam emails from doing so and I will remove you from my list at any time you say.

the blades · Oct 12, 2005

momo said:
mr cassandra, you sound really keen for all of us to go and check this website out. and i found this post from you just over a year ago. i smell a vendor.

16-06-2004, 12:30 AM #1
mr_cassandra
Senior Member

Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: cape cod, mass, usa
Posts: 132 Fyi on my own system

I am considering offering this as a paid e-mail advisory service after completing one year of publicly posted signals at Clearstation. If you have any interest in this please e-mail me at [email protected]. You will not receives ANY spam emails from doing so and I will remove you from my list at any time you say.

In fairness to Mr Cassandra, he does openly operate his own system and I suspect it is this he's referring to in the clearstation post. His system is nothiong like the VTO system.

The VTO system, and it's subsequent modified version, is very simple, free for all to see and operate should they so wish. It's not clear (to me, anyway) what Mr Cassandra would gain from this?

Cheers,
UTB

mr_cassandra · Oct 12, 2005

mom on diligence

Afternoon Momo, you’re pretty far behind on the diligence curve but here’s a quick descrip. (everything I'm about to say can be verified with due diligence)

1.I did market my program via collective dot com then withdrew it after some successful signals. The liability risks far outweigh the $30 per good trade I was collecting.

I market nothing to no one, but do comment on my own program and those of others I admire like Nocona, whose is free and public.

I’m frequently challenged by folks who have dligenced very little but doubt everything. I long ago realized they don’;t affect my bank account at all.

ps have a look at www.vtoreport.com - 5 day rsi system ( free) and compare it to your own broker statements!

I agree with you this is a world full of tricks and scams but don't be too cynical lest you miss the occasional real thing (not me, but nocona looks good, mine is not for sale)

I recommend to anyone reading this post don't take my word for this or momo's, check and see if you think nocona is selling anything whatsoever with his free, public idea.

momo said:
mr cassandra, you sound really keen for all of us to go and check this website out. and i found this post from you just over a year ago. i smell a vendor.

16-06-2004, 12:30 AM #1
mr_cassandra
Senior Member

Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: cape cod, mass, usa
Posts: 132 Fyi on my own system

I am considering offering this as a paid e-mail advisory service after completing one year of publicly posted signals at Clearstation. If you have any interest in this please e-mail me at [email protected]. You will not receives ANY spam emails from doing so and I will remove you from my list at any time you say.

momo · Oct 13, 2005

mr_cassandra said:
ps have a look at www.vtoreport.com - 5 day rsi system ( free) and compare it to your own broker statements!

QUOTE]

ok maybe i was wrong, but please, dont insult me with this crappy system based on a lagging indicator. heres my PnL from yesterday.

mr_cassandra · Oct 13, 2005

Thank you

I know the straight vto system has a lot of areas which could be improved but still do contend that if many investors here compared their own broker statements to its results, they might get a surprise. On the other hand noconas results I think are awesome and if others have a better system, they are not saying so. I have no ties to either except being a mechanical system fan.

Can you point me to a mechical trading system with clearly defined rules which does better than noconas?

momo said:
mr_cassandra said:

ps have a look at www.vtoreport.com - 5 day rsi system ( free) and compare it to your own broker statements!

QUOTE]

ok maybe i was wrong, but please, dont insult me with this crappy system based on a lagging indicator. heres my PnL from yesterday.

Click to expand...

momo · Oct 14, 2005

i dont know of any 'websites' that have clearly defined rules for a good system, and i dont think there are any out there. the best system is the one you develop, because then it will be tailored to your tastes and you will have the confidence to stick to it through drawdowns because you designed it. and also do not rely on a sample size of '29' trades, you want at least 100, prefably more to have a realiable sample size for a true reading of a particular system. looking at this system if you did a multi-market, multi-timeframe, multi-parameter test you would find that whats been presented is a curvefit.

Minder · Oct 14, 2005

mr cassandra,

Do you have any figures for the largest gain from the sample 29 trades, and how does this compare to the 2% stoploss position re risk/reward ?

Thanks

JonnyT · Oct 15, 2005

If someone can decrible the rules correctly, I will back test this.

Its not clear whether it only uses normal market hours data or not.

JonnyT

wwatson1 · Oct 15, 2005

in 5 years I have never found a free system that works well no matter how you alter it and how many filters you add. Just my experience.

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