yellowlion
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2 lots both closed + 10 pips off .5227. Reason for 2 lot exit: 3 min 21 sma below.
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Yellowlion's EURUSD Trading Journal
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yellowlion
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02/29/08 10:45 Price is King
Took a 1 lot long on some bank activity looking for 10 pips. Had to coax myself into taking it. Acting heavy and not as expected. Had a stop in but took +2 pips just to get out. Did hit target. Happens more than I like I close on the bar right before it goes. Stop was too tight to bail like that. Just one tick below that little bar at .5201
Update:
Yup, it was heavy. Interesting to note that the short term indicators were nicely positive but price was indicating something else. It smelled like a trap. Those who traded off the indicators got caught. No excuse for my bailing out early, the trade hit my target. Excellent lesson on how price is king.
Took a 1 lot long on some bank activity looking for 10 pips. Had to coax myself into taking it. Acting heavy and not as expected. Had a stop in but took +2 pips just to get out. Did hit target. Happens more than I like I close on the bar right before it goes. Stop was too tight to bail like that. Just one tick below that little bar at .5201
Update:
Yup, it was heavy. Interesting to note that the short term indicators were nicely positive but price was indicating something else. It smelled like a trap. Those who traded off the indicators got caught. No excuse for my bailing out early, the trade hit my target. Excellent lesson on how price is king.
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yellowlion
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02/29/08 18:16
Put my head down for a nap after the PCE data and slept for 4 hours. sweeeet.
EURUSD right where I left it but a couple nice swings in between. Gonna make a coffee and see if I can find one more before the week ends.
Update: A little impulse while I was making coffee. No follow through either way. A couple missed opportunities through the session and a great nap. 2 trades 2 wins 22 1 lot pips. Good enough.
Have a terrific weekend everyone.
All the best,
Yellowlion
Put my head down for a nap after the PCE data and slept for 4 hours. sweeeet.
EURUSD right where I left it but a couple nice swings in between. Gonna make a coffee and see if I can find one more before the week ends.
Update: A little impulse while I was making coffee. No follow through either way. A couple missed opportunities through the session and a great nap. 2 trades 2 wins 22 1 lot pips. Good enough.
Have a terrific weekend everyone.
All the best,
Yellowlion
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yellowlion
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03/03/08 06:00
Good morning all. Hope everyone had a splendid weekend.
Reconfigured some hardware on the trading desk this weekend which took the time I usually spend getting something ready for the week ahead. Newsletter analysis is by request only this week. No real change for my outlook here. DX to 73.00. EURUSD to 1.5375 - 95. Watching treasuries.
A bit of resistance just above at .5260 - 70.
Support at daily PP .5187 and the low at .5144.
For the session:
Primary focus is on proper entry technique.
Acceptable risk per trade 1% = 38 1 lot pips.
Defined and discretionary setups all in play.
Goal for the day: Spotless technique.
Trade well,
Yellowlion
Good morning all. Hope everyone had a splendid weekend.
Reconfigured some hardware on the trading desk this weekend which took the time I usually spend getting something ready for the week ahead. Newsletter analysis is by request only this week. No real change for my outlook here. DX to 73.00. EURUSD to 1.5375 - 95. Watching treasuries.
A bit of resistance just above at .5260 - 70.
Support at daily PP .5187 and the low at .5144.
For the session:
Primary focus is on proper entry technique.
Acceptable risk per trade 1% = 38 1 lot pips.
Defined and discretionary setups all in play.
Goal for the day: Spotless technique.
Trade well,
Yellowlion
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yellowlion
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03/03/08 12:20
Mid session. Just closed a long trade on an hourly setup. Multiple entries with multiple exits for this particular trade idea. Made a size error on the initial entry, wanted 1 lot, entered 2, and held onto it instead of getting rid of the extra lot immediately. Probably cost the trade. No room at the lower entries because of the extra weight. Trade worked, extra lot killed it. Had to exit on risk parameter. Have to review this one. -40 1 lot pips on a good setup. -19 from that extra lot.
No charts.
YL
Mid session. Just closed a long trade on an hourly setup. Multiple entries with multiple exits for this particular trade idea. Made a size error on the initial entry, wanted 1 lot, entered 2, and held onto it instead of getting rid of the extra lot immediately. Probably cost the trade. No room at the lower entries because of the extra weight. Trade worked, extra lot killed it. Had to exit on risk parameter. Have to review this one. -40 1 lot pips on a good setup. -19 from that extra lot.
No charts.
YL
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yellowlion
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03/04/08 06:40
Good morning all.
After that trade last session I packed up for the day. Although a re-entry was possible, my psychology was thrown off and I wasn't interested in chasing the trade. No big deal. Tonight I'm going to pick it apart and try to develop a solid strategy for that particular pattern. It was the first time I traded it.
The setup did work well for those who traded it correctly taking EURUSD to the .5260-70 resistance level posted last night. Tonight finds price where we were last night in the same type of environment.
Trichet comments may lend an air of caution to the mood but if EZ data suggests a stronger Euro, I don't expect any ECB comments to stop it. My 1.5375 - 95 target remains in place.
Levels for the day:
Resistance: Daily PP at .5210 , .5238, and the high at .5275
Good support at .5144
For the session:
Trading a full session tonight.
Primary focus is on proper entry technique.
Acceptable risk per trade 1% = 38 1 lot pips.
Defined and discretionary setups all in play.
Goal for the day: Spotless technique.
Trade Well,
Yellowlion
Good morning all.
After that trade last session I packed up for the day. Although a re-entry was possible, my psychology was thrown off and I wasn't interested in chasing the trade. No big deal. Tonight I'm going to pick it apart and try to develop a solid strategy for that particular pattern. It was the first time I traded it.
The setup did work well for those who traded it correctly taking EURUSD to the .5260-70 resistance level posted last night. Tonight finds price where we were last night in the same type of environment.
Trichet comments may lend an air of caution to the mood but if EZ data suggests a stronger Euro, I don't expect any ECB comments to stop it. My 1.5375 - 95 target remains in place.
Levels for the day:
Resistance: Daily PP at .5210 , .5238, and the high at .5275
Good support at .5144
For the session:
Trading a full session tonight.
Primary focus is on proper entry technique.
Acceptable risk per trade 1% = 38 1 lot pips.
Defined and discretionary setups all in play.
Goal for the day: Spotless technique.
Trade Well,
Yellowlion
yellowlion
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03/04/08 Mid session
Mid Session. Broke out of the chop nicely here. Still some overhead to get through. first at 30 - 40.
Finished the trade analysis from last session. Anyone interested can view it here.
it's a bit lengthy but may be helpful. I would appreciate any constructive comments or ideas.
YL
Mid Session. Broke out of the chop nicely here. Still some overhead to get through. first at 30 - 40.
Finished the trade analysis from last session. Anyone interested can view it here.
it's a bit lengthy but may be helpful. I would appreciate any constructive comments or ideas.
YL
yellowlion
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03/05/08 Session Open
Good Morning All,
Just got in from a social function this evening. Haven't decided if I'm trading the London morning session or not.
High was .5248 in yesterday's afternoon session.
Trading right in the middle of the range .5143 - .5238. I'd favor a test of the lower bound if I had to choose a direction.
Trade well,
Yellowlion
Good Morning All,
Just got in from a social function this evening. Haven't decided if I'm trading the London morning session or not.
High was .5248 in yesterday's afternoon session.
Trading right in the middle of the range .5143 - .5238. I'd favor a test of the lower bound if I had to choose a direction.
Trade well,
Yellowlion
yellowlion
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03/06/08 Session Open
Good morning all,
Not much trading so far this week. Kinda maxed out with work and social occasions. Had another one tonight.
The lower bound for the range mentioned last post was tested and .5145 served as the launch pad to fresh highs. I haven't done any analysis for this pair over the past couple sessions but at a glance I see no reason to alter my .5375-95 target.
Support present at the old high of .5275 and at the range upper bound at .5250-40
Daily PP at .5241
I doubt I'm trading this session. Should probably take the rest of the week off. I've been tired since last week and don't feel fit to trade effectively.
Have a good session,
Yellowlion
Good morning all,
Not much trading so far this week. Kinda maxed out with work and social occasions. Had another one tonight.
The lower bound for the range mentioned last post was tested and .5145 served as the launch pad to fresh highs. I haven't done any analysis for this pair over the past couple sessions but at a glance I see no reason to alter my .5375-95 target.
Support present at the old high of .5275 and at the range upper bound at .5250-40
Daily PP at .5241
I doubt I'm trading this session. Should probably take the rest of the week off. I've been tired since last week and don't feel fit to trade effectively.
Have a good session,
Yellowlion
yellowlion
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03/07/08 Session Open
Good morning and Happy Friday all,
Actually feeling rested tonight and may put on a trade or two.
Dollar index is at a completion target as is EURUSD. My attention is on the weekly Fibonacci fan which has been so reliable for the past 18 months. Instinct tells me capitulation is going to blast right through the upper bound in a explosion of emotion. Could payrolls provide the needed spark or am I just getting a bit dramatic here?
Anyway, I'm looking to nibble very lightly on the short side because my analysis tells me to do so.
Capitulation target 1.5520 or emotional rescue (oh the drama!)
All the Best,
Yellowlion
Good morning and Happy Friday all,
Actually feeling rested tonight and may put on a trade or two.
Dollar index is at a completion target as is EURUSD. My attention is on the weekly Fibonacci fan which has been so reliable for the past 18 months. Instinct tells me capitulation is going to blast right through the upper bound in a explosion of emotion. Could payrolls provide the needed spark or am I just getting a bit dramatic here?
Anyway, I'm looking to nibble very lightly on the short side because my analysis tells me to do so.
Capitulation target 1.5520 or emotional rescue (oh the drama!)
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Weekly
Monthly
All the Best,
Yellowlion
yellowlion
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03/18/08 Session Open
Good morning all,
Took a much needed break from trading to rest body, mind, and spirit, and also to reconfigure my trading desk with a couple new goodies. Limited trading resumes tonight with a ramp up to full operations throughout the week.
Just wanted to touch on my last post of 03/07/08.
The drama continues. My attention was on the weekly Fib Fan with a capitulation target of .5520 or emotional rescue. Not surprisingly, it looks like the rescue target is the correct one. With the Fed meeting ahead, I hesitate to call anything specific and will just wait for what looks like the correct opportunity. There are certainly some tasty looking offerings in the stock market.
At these levels and in this environment, my EURUSD is only for daytrading.
Here's the untouched weekly chart from the last post.
Oh the drama!
All the Best,
Yellowlion
Good morning all,
Took a much needed break from trading to rest body, mind, and spirit, and also to reconfigure my trading desk with a couple new goodies. Limited trading resumes tonight with a ramp up to full operations throughout the week.
Just wanted to touch on my last post of 03/07/08.
The drama continues. My attention was on the weekly Fib Fan with a capitulation target of .5520 or emotional rescue. Not surprisingly, it looks like the rescue target is the correct one. With the Fed meeting ahead, I hesitate to call anything specific and will just wait for what looks like the correct opportunity. There are certainly some tasty looking offerings in the stock market.
At these levels and in this environment, my EURUSD is only for daytrading.
Here's the untouched weekly chart from the last post.
Oh the drama!
All the Best,
Yellowlion
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yellowlion
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4/2/2008 06:00 GMT Back in business
Hi all,
Well I have learned that taking time off leads to more time off. Spent the last few weeks upgrading the trading desk and building a sweet real-time Excel dashboard application. Now it's back to business.
Took 10 pips during a phone conversation at the hourly .618 fib, the 3 hour trendline and the 1 minute 2.618. 1 lot trade so exit 1 lot always at 10 pips.
Hi all,
Well I have learned that taking time off leads to more time off. Spent the last few weeks upgrading the trading desk and building a sweet real-time Excel dashboard application. Now it's back to business.
Took 10 pips during a phone conversation at the hourly .618 fib, the 3 hour trendline and the 1 minute 2.618. 1 lot trade so exit 1 lot always at 10 pips.
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yellowlion
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04/02/08 09:00 Another convergence fade
Working on fading convergence levels, trying to enter manually into these strong trending moves is not easy. The convergence fade earlier went 100+ pips. I was in at .5540 and the current top off that entry was .5658.
I'm just working on taking 10 pips on single lots at these high probability/ low risk zones and seeing how the dynamics play. This one was into the 100 pip move. Several different time frames provided several entry levels. Here I just present the 3 minute and the 1 minute into the daily and weekly pivot convergence with a 2.618 extension level for good measure. The 1 hour 200 sma is a bit lower at .4640. Other time levels were converging here also.
Tough trade. The trend is strong and there aren't a lot of sellers around. Squeaked out 6 pips on two different entries (the first one went 9 pips so I held into the pp entry) and bailed as the shorter period ma's were coming in to provide a lift.
If these trades can consistently call reversals and can prove to be worth 30 pips on average, then they are good multiple lot / multiple exit candidates.
Here's this last trade tryin' to stop the train.
All the Best,
Yellowlion
Working on fading convergence levels, trying to enter manually into these strong trending moves is not easy. The convergence fade earlier went 100+ pips. I was in at .5540 and the current top off that entry was .5658.
I'm just working on taking 10 pips on single lots at these high probability/ low risk zones and seeing how the dynamics play. This one was into the 100 pip move. Several different time frames provided several entry levels. Here I just present the 3 minute and the 1 minute into the daily and weekly pivot convergence with a 2.618 extension level for good measure. The 1 hour 200 sma is a bit lower at .4640. Other time levels were converging here also.
Tough trade. The trend is strong and there aren't a lot of sellers around. Squeaked out 6 pips on two different entries (the first one went 9 pips so I held into the pp entry) and bailed as the shorter period ma's were coming in to provide a lift.
If these trades can consistently call reversals and can prove to be worth 30 pips on average, then they are good multiple lot / multiple exit candidates.
Here's this last trade tryin' to stop the train.
All the Best,
Yellowlion
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yellowlion
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10:53 End of Session
Hi All,
Gotta be up in 5 for work. 2 trades +16 pips.
Have a great day,
Yellowlion
Hi All,
Gotta be up in 5 for work. 2 trades +16 pips.
Have a great day,
Yellowlion
yellowlion
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04/03/08 06:00 GMT Session Open
Good morning all,
Dollar has firmed 80 pips through Asia and is now giving the daily 21 SMA at .5621 it's second test in 10 days. Should price get firmly under this key support, the 3 hour trendlines could break with Euro to .5455
3 Hour
Trade Well,
Yellowlion
Good morning all,
Dollar has firmed 80 pips through Asia and is now giving the daily 21 SMA at .5621 it's second test in 10 days. Should price get firmly under this key support, the 3 hour trendlines could break with Euro to .5455
Daily
3 Hour
Trade Well,
Yellowlion
yellowlion
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04/03/08 10:19 GMT Best In Breed
Kind of an off night for me. Had 4 ideas and blimey they all worked but the setups never really completed.The market just seemed to be in front of me all session long. To be fair my demons were active but my patience was good and I just looked for the next one. This last one was the fifth and truly the best of breed. With a 1 lot entry I ended the night +11 pips (my 10 pip standard 1 lot exit.)
Other setups gave much more but when it don't feel right, I try not to do it.
Anyway for those that use my analysis the trendlines have broke and .5533 may bounce.
.5509 is the three hour 200 sma
.5455 should find good support.
Trade Well,
Yellowlion
3 hour
Kind of an off night for me. Had 4 ideas and blimey they all worked but the setups never really completed.The market just seemed to be in front of me all session long. To be fair my demons were active but my patience was good and I just looked for the next one. This last one was the fifth and truly the best of breed. With a 1 lot entry I ended the night +11 pips (my 10 pip standard 1 lot exit.)
Other setups gave much more but when it don't feel right, I try not to do it.
Anyway for those that use my analysis the trendlines have broke and .5533 may bounce.
.5509 is the three hour 200 sma
.5455 should find good support.
Trade Well,
Yellowlion
3 hour
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yellowlion
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04/04/08 06:30 GMT Session Open
Good Morning All,
Wow quite a bounce off the 3 hr 200 sma. Looks bullish going forward.
Resistance at: .5690 .5725 - 50.
Support at .5630
Price failure has been a key focus here lately and I'm interested to see if another one materializes.
Trade Well,
Yellowlion
Good Morning All,
Wow quite a bounce off the 3 hr 200 sma. Looks bullish going forward.
Resistance at: .5690 .5725 - 50.
Support at .5630
Price failure has been a key focus here lately and I'm interested to see if another one materializes.
Trade Well,
Yellowlion
3 hour
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yellowlion
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08:15 Convergence Fade
Good volume setup at the floor of this rally but I still have psychology issues on some setups.
1 hr 21 sma and daily 21 sma at .5719
Fib completion targets at 22-32
Daily R1 at .5726
1 lot entry at .5717 standard exit + 10 pips
Good volume setup at the floor of this rally but I still have psychology issues on some setups.
1 hr 21 sma and daily 21 sma at .5719
Fib completion targets at 22-32
Daily R1 at .5726
1 lot entry at .5717 standard exit + 10 pips
3, 13 and 55 minute at time of entry
1 minute trade screen
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yellowlion
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13:00 Thanks Hubert!
1 lot + 10 pips on one of Hubert Senters' favorite setups.
1 lot + 10 pips on one of Hubert Senters' favorite setups.
Gotcha!
yellowlion
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04/04/08 16:00 End of Session and Week
For the 3 day week 4/2 - 4/4:
Six 1 lot entries
Six Wins
4 completed 10 pip target exits
2 early exits
+46 pips
5 convergence setups and one gotcha setup.
Entries and exits were good. Confidence good. Patience good.
Fear with setups not involving convergence zones.
Several obvious opportunities missed. Unable to accept risk.
Need to start documenting these viable untaken trades.
Overall an acceptable week
Have a terrific weekend everyone,
Yellowlion
For the 3 day week 4/2 - 4/4:
Six 1 lot entries
Six Wins
4 completed 10 pip target exits
2 early exits
+46 pips
5 convergence setups and one gotcha setup.
Entries and exits were good. Confidence good. Patience good.
Fear with setups not involving convergence zones.
Several obvious opportunities missed. Unable to accept risk.
Need to start documenting these viable untaken trades.
Overall an acceptable week
Have a terrific weekend everyone,
Yellowlion
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