Why is everyone long on vodafone?

[UKtradergirl]

Whilst looking at different spreadbetting firms i came across The home of Financial Spread Betting

Interestingly, they publish on their page the percentage of people going long/short on their accounts for various positions.

The site says that 98% of their customers are long on the Vodafone rolling daily contract (as of 15 minutes ago). Am i missing something here? From my looking at the chart it doesn't appear that Vodafone is on the rise, especially not TODAY (daily contract).

Try as i may i can not find any evidence that vodafone may rise in price. Am i going crazy and seeing something different to everyone else? Through every time frame i just looked at the trend is very clearly DOWN. It makes me want to go out and short this stock, even though i never normally trade Vodafone (despite the fact everyone else thinks otherwise?!)

Opinions, anyone?

UKTraderGirl

p.s. This is interesting information anyway- does anyone know of any other spreadbetting firms that publish information like this??

 

[shadowninja]

Would they benefit from more people (like you) going long?

 

[arabianights]

Lots of clients use spread betting to effectively have a geared, tax free position in a share - they're not really traders as such, more investors.

So you'll get a lot of this kind of thing.

ETA: Seems to me in every market the clients are doing the opposite of what I would do! I might pay more attention to this and use it as a reverse indicator...

 

[options]

Ah, but if you look under that box it says, "Selection of open trades at 14:45 on 1/10/2008. This does not constitute financial advice."


So not everyone on the books are long vod. In essence then a useless bit of info.


It is a good idea though. Now if they could get a screen like that one showing ALL clients positions you could clean up by doing the reverse, assuming 95% get it wrong.

 

[tar]

they dont have many clients , it is not a popular SB firm

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Just for fun I have entered play trades based on doing the complete opposite of popular opinion on their list ... and I'm already down

 

[shadowninja]

I am surprised everyone is shorting EUR/USD. Surely, 95% should be bottom picking right about now?

 

[tar]

yah strange 99% short on Euro !!

 

[fibonelli]

There is a rationale for a long position in Vodaphone

It is not a bank
It is not an investment bank
It is not a hedge fund
It does not hold weapons of mass destruction aka derivatives

It is a global mobile telecommunication company with activities throughout the world :innocent:
It is making profits
It pays a dividend
It doesn't have high debts

:clover:

 

[UKtradergirl]

I'm really surprised people are bottom picking in such high numbers,especially on daily contracts- surely it would be better if you wanted to bottom pick, to do it on a dec 08 contract?! Do they really think a long term trend in this climate will just turn immediately?

Interesting to see the experiment on the trades- would have been very funny if the opposite of popular opinion made profit. . Perhaps if we could get some truely representational figures for what people were betting on we would have the basis for a strategy?! On second thoughts, better off sticking to the actual market.

I'm really fed up at the moment. I went short on the Dow, then got out at 20 point profit because i got scared and thought i was going to lose it- then the market promptly went down another 100 plus points!! ?Why do i always do this?! At least i made some profit i suppose.

UKTradergirl

 

[UKtradergirl]

Fibonelli- yes very good points- for a longer term trade. But a one day position?! Still crazy if you ask me...

 

[shadowninja]

I'm really fed up at the moment. I went short on the Dow, then got out at 20 point profit because i got scared and thought i was going to lose it- then the market promptly went down another 100 plus points!! ?Why do i always do this?! At least i made some profit i suppose.

**** me. I'm getting deja vu.

Why did you get scared? Are you betting sizes you can't deal with?

 

[MrGecko]

There is a rationale for a long position in Vodaphone


It does not hold weapons of mass destruction aka derivatives

Sorry to divert, but I reckon telecommunication derivatives are going to be the next big thing - forwards etc.. on fibre-optic bandwidth, for example, at peak hours when everyone downloads the next episode of eastenders, and so on...

you heard it here first!

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Sorry to divert, but I reckon telecommunication derivatives are going to be the next big thing - forwards etc.. on fibre-optic bandwidth, for example, at peak hours when everyone downloads the next episode of eastenders, and so on...

you heard it here first!

Yo mate,

How much money have you got where your mouth is??

 

[UKtradergirl]

No actually i was only betting £1 a point! I think i was a little scared because i entered the trade without as much checking of the setup and risk:reward ratio that i normally do, then when the market started forming a range at around 3:50pm i waited but chickened out for fear that it would break quick and fast in the 'wrong' direction. I had a stop but it was quite large to account for the whipsawing and to avoid being stopped out on a price spike which has happened a lot lately.

If only i had waited a bit longer... i just cant hold back, when i see my position in profit i always want to close it out- and quickly as possible.

Earlier i had to go out- and risked leaving a short trade on gold- by being away from the chart i came back to a nice profit and closed the position. I think with more time and experience i will build up more confidence in my decisions and be able to hold out a bit.

Anyway, nice to know i'm not the only one who does this!


p.s wall st tumbling further as i type- oh pooo!!

 

[MrGecko]

who's asking... you know a firm that provides such a service?

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Early days yet but I think it may be best to run with popular opinion.

 

[MrGecko]

Early days yet but I think it may be best to run with popular opinion.

Absolutely

 

[UKtradergirl]

hmmm... after all, isn't the popular opinion (trades) by definition the one most people are trading? ~(and hence which way the market will move) Saying this at risk of offending the contrarians out there- whose ideas work because 'popular opinion' usually does change when a price reaches a big support/resistance level- so saying the market is going to change direction, is actually no longer a contrary view.

Not sure if any of this makes sense, ah well.

 

[options]

I only mentioned it because of the 95% that don't make it in this trade.
Therefore by doing the opposite of the 95% you would supposedly make money.

LMQ's dow long should be looking better about now. Haven't checked the others.


Update at the close please Mr m'Q