Why do people not use Betfair more?

[apples10]

lol eh up Joules, long time no chat...

not going too well over in Faisalabad at the mo, but well done on knocking off the 78 to beat the Windies..

you have to laugh at Hayden though lol

anyway, as another example of value on the exchanges...

just put a £20 bet at 2.43 for the FTSE to finish up...


its at the bottom of the channel established since the low last wednesday, and also there is approx a 70% chance of the day finishing up after the early spike..

lets see how it pans out..

fc

The day up on Binexx is presently at 33 offered, which is better than your price, guess its a timing difference.

On my model this has an implied of only 7% (whereas last week they were at 10% and 12%), sooo cheap


rgds

 

[nutter punter]

The day up on Binexx is presently at 33 offered, which is better than your price, guess its a timing difference.

On my model this has an implied of only 7% (whereas last week they were at 10% and 12%), sooo cheap


rgds

Why bother with Binexx? There commsion is higher than anywhere else. There spreads are wider and they pull all markets in a 'fast market'.

 

[FetteredChinos]

on another note, anyone fancy england for the test match @ 12.0 ???

i might just lay pakistan at this price (2.20) still a long way to go, and because of the light, its unlikely that we would get a result from only 75 overs a day....

 

[apples10]

Why bother with Binexx? There commsion is higher than anywhere else. There spreads are wider and they pull all markets in a 'fast market'.

Unfortunately I'm forced to. In our office the firewall is daft, the IG/Binary/Finspreads dealscreens don't work and all sites with any mention of 'bet' have a web blocker!!

Think I'm Binexx's only user !!

In the evening I use IG/Binary.

Rgds

 

[nutter punter]

Ah I see the problem now. What about Betfair? I assume that is off the menu to?

As for being there only user I bet you are not far off the truth

 

[FetteredChinos]

ok, another £10 on at 2.62...

3 peak positive divergance on the 5 min chart..

strong chance of a rise between now and the close.

may lay this off later in the day to lock in a profit, depending on how the market moves..

fc

 

[FetteredChinos]

ok, nearly time for the Dow to open.. futures indicating the cash index up approx 20pts at the open...

betdaq quoting approx 1.50..

chances of an up day are >75% according to my calculations....

another value bet..... £40 going on at 1.50...

 

[FetteredChinos]

looking good so far on all bets...

Dow currently priced at 1.37 to close up... (versus a near 90% chance according to history when >30pts hit at any point in the day..)

tempted to add a bit more if it pulls back to the lower BB again..

 

[stevespray]

FC - What type of data are you using to calculate your historical close statistics? I mean are you just using what happens on a day to day basis or are you using an Implied Volatility calculation?

I managed to grab some 'FTSE to finish up' on Betfair. Someone was offering 1.95 when FTSE was up 10.5 (on futs) with 45 mins to run. Seemed too good to me.

Steve.

PS Data question is based on your comments on Dow.

 

[stevespray]

Is it me or has Betfair gone down?

Steve.

 

[FetteredChinos]

steve, been using it on daily and intraday data on the dow, to include opening gaps..

you would be surprised how poorly priced a medium-ish gap-up (20-50ts) usually is on the exchanges..

most people appear to be expecting the gap to close that day, which is only really a 50/50 chance.

hmm, getting a bit close for comfort on the FTSE today :s

 

[Bigbusiness]

looking good so far on all bets...

Dow currently priced at 1.37 to close up... (versus a near 90% chance according to history when >30pts hit at any point in the day..)

tempted to add a bit more if it pulls back to the lower BB again..

I find it hard to believe that the Dow closes up 90% of the time after hitting +30. Something I will have to look at. Will go through some data tomorrow. Hope I can confirm your stats, as that would be very useful.

 

[stevespray]

FC...

Yes - Looks like its going to close down 1.0

Never mind, in the longer run its about spotting value - Just because you spot value doesnt mean you win every bet.

Steve.

PS Do you have an email address or MSN - I have something that you may be interested in.

 

[Bigbusiness]

Ok, I couldn't wait. From my data for the Dow, of the last 1193 trading days, 767 days reached +30. 560 of those days closed up. I make that 73%. Probably pressed the wrong buttons but that seems more reasonable to me that 90%. Will have a proper look when I get some time.

 

[FetteredChinos]

knackers... 1pt out...pain in the **** and £(35)

BB, try re-doing your calcs based on volatility, rather than a hard value...

0.3-0.4 of a recent average range...

might make a bit more of a difference

and either way, based on 73% , that still makes the odds in the region of 1.25 or so.. can easily get 1.35-1.40 at least...

 

[trendie]

FC,

Good to see you post after so long.
Are you still trading with an eye to the 3-day cycle, Taylor method ?
Or just pure historically-derived statistics ?
Do you trade FX via betfair ?
thanks

 

[FetteredChinos]

hi trendie.. decided to take a break from on here as it was winding me up no end..

the 3 day cycle does still feature in my plans, gives a bit more reassurance to my statistical findings..

i use both betdaq and betfair at the mo.. but betfair doesnt work at work (then again nor do i lol) whereas the former does.. i dont dare question it with the IT department...

also, on a side note, just checked my account, and betdaq have actually credited my account as a win!!

may have to lump the winnings on something else before they take it away again lol...

fc

 

[Bigbusiness]

knackers... 1pt out...pain in the **** and £(35)

BB, try re-doing your calcs based on volatility, rather than a hard value...

0.3-0.4 of a recent average range...

might make a bit more of a difference

and either way, based on 73% , that still makes the odds in the region of 1.25 or so.. can easily get 1.35-1.40 at least...

Unlucky FC. Looks like they moved the markets just for you. I know that feeling

While the odds still look good, I am wondering how many of those days hit the + or - 30 late in the day? The odds of the Dow hitting + 30 early in the day and finishing up should be a lot less than when the Dow hits + 30 later in the day. The only way to find a true value would be to go through the data on intra-day charts. Anyone want to do this for us

 

[FetteredChinos]

BB, thats what i tried to do for 2 whole days.. i dont have my sheet handy at the moment, but i based it on prices in the first hour and half.. (ie up to 4pm GMT)

the % didnt seem to drop too much from the overall numbers based on daily data..which is what makes me think this is a viable alternative..

obviously dodgy data notwithstanding...

 

[FetteredChinos]

another £20 on @ 1.53 on the DOW to finish up

feels like a free bet anyway because of the apparent balls-up