Who's looking to Short GOLD???

Tiger21Invest said:
Point of concern for gold from a demand point of view: Indian imports, the world’s biggest buyer, probably fell for the fifth month in a row during September as the price of gold is keeping jewelers from buying. India has imported less since April and imports last month were 21.8 tons compared with 98 tons a year earlier. In spite of this, I don’t believe gold is trading based on supply / demand, but more technicals and fear.
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...And the Tiger's analysis is my reasoning. There may be a run up in Gold but when everyone expects it to go to $2000, that's a worry.

The situation with gold is the same as oil last year and oil now. Oil is teetering on the brink and has struggled for months to break $75 and the 200 sma because the supply and demand doesn't back it up.

Oil is moving in lock-step with the anti-dollar trade and a firmer dollar would bring it back down. This trade is also pro-growth, but cracks are appearing in this analysis and
the market is ignoring it. Money supply falling, credit falling, Japan in worst ever deflation print despite their recent history.

The ONLY reason for the 'crisis over' calls are trillions of stimulus propping up the numbers. It's fed a stock rally, which in turn fed consumer and business confidence. Both of which will turn on a dime at the first sign of trouble. There is nothing I see to support a sustainable economy after the stimulus stops.


Last year, I said that oil above 100 and especially in the 120-147 was pure speculation and frenzy, yet I was told that there were too many people who would buy pullbacks and it would never get below $100. Well it did and this one-way bet in gold is looking almost identical.

Technically, the weekly double-top on gold is a thing of beauty and I have struggled to see a similar setup (2 years d.t. in the making) on any chart that has formed a continuation upwards.

Another reason for the one-way gold call is going to a gold-backed currency and I don't buy it. An IMF sdr basket or something is more likely.

On another outlook, the market has changed dramatically over the last few years and financial wars are the new scud. Don't count out a bear-raid and don't imagine that Bernanke and co don't know what they are doing with the economy. Also, during the great depression the U.S. confiscated all gold. Thinking laterally here.

The only threat I see to my bear call, is more fake GDP-creating stimulus but that won't last.
 
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its funny though, the only thing that could take gold higher is continues weakening of the dollar..so you ride gold to 2000$ sell it all then find the dollars are worth have the value anyway lol...gold adjusted for inflation and priced in FX is going nowhere..infact it is extremely cheap!
 
N Rothschild said:
dunno what your laughing at you are clueless when it comes to fundamentals! :cheesy:
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I dunno - $650 seems a little bit far fetched to me but like you said, I don't know too much about the fundamentals. I'm not really a huge Gold bull - I don't really have a long term outlook for it. I just think that it's going to take out $1032. Whether that's by 1 cent or another $1,000 I don't know and don't care really as I will go with the side that's winning - bull or bear. But I just don't see that we are going down without exploring above $1032.
 
when people wake up and realise delfation is the problem not inflation, gold will tank faster than a stock market crash lol..
 
Friday’s weekly CFTC update:
Speculative long positions outnumbered short positions by 231,386 contracts, down 5,363.
Miners, producers, jewelers and other commercial users were net short 275,234, down 12,376 contracts.
No huge change, so I interpret it to reflect no change in the expectation of the price of gold.
 
barryb said:
Ahh, you must be a 10p spreadbetter as well then
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I'm certainly a spreadbetter. As for my bet per pip, I bet what I think I and my various accounts can afford at the time. As my signature says I'm here to learn. I'm quite up front about that. What are you here for? If not to learn, then to teach? Not seen you do much of that here.
 
N Rothschild said:
its funny though, the only thing that could take gold higher is continues weakening of the dollar..so you ride gold to 2000$ sell it all then find the dollars are worth have the value anyway lol...gold adjusted for inflation and priced in FX is going nowhere..infact it is extremely cheap!
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You have a point, but, and I don't know about you squire but my accounts are denominated in pounds not dollars. I bet pounds per pip (or pence if Barry Sourgrapes is correct), so what gets returned to me doesn't depend on the value of the dollar. Mind you the pound is going to slide like a bobsleigh and be worth naff all before too long, so perhaps ultimately you are right again, darn it.

We're all dooomed!
 
Was reading that Deutsche Bank's Macro Strategy Group recommended emerging-market assets, high-yield bonds and gold as likely to benefit from a "global sweet spot" of economic recovery and central-bank liquidity, which it called "the perfect mix for a range of risky assets." The group sees gold going to $1,100 an ounce.
 
N Rothschild said:
sorry i was meaning real traders who buy futures contracts :p or actual gold
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OK Your Worship, sorry to have intruded into your palace. I will withdraw from Your Richness's presence to my humble cellar where I will count the grubby sackloads of tens of thousands of pennies that I somehow seem to have won today, purely by fluke obviously.

yahoo-hidden-smileys-28.gif
notworthy.gif
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I know I am supposed to avert my eyes in the presence of The Great (Unrumpled) One, but looking up just now, I happened to notice that Gold had had quite a good day :p

tiphat2.gif
 
barryb said:
To be derisory and negative, and to fade your trades in the real market. :LOL:
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Well the first two are self-evident. As for "the real market", For one who has been so derisory about "10p spread betters", I see that only last November you were regularly using SB firms yourself:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gen...t-shop-if-ive-ever-seen-one-2.html#post577072

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gen...irect-access-annual-revisit-8.html#post548078

Oh and here you were in June 2005, asking for advice:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-career-advice/15742-prop-firm-decision.html#post186342

A bit more humble in those days. And less negative, derisory, and rather more likeable apparently. I wonder what happened. Success (if that's what it was) does not seem to have been good for you. Look, we all have to start somewhere, so if you'll take some advice from someone who's a less experienced trader, but a bit more experienced in life, don't be so offhand about newer traders. In quite a few of your older posts (when you were actually trying to be helpful - I can see that) you talk about humility. Yes, I agree, but it's something you seem to have forgotten.

You may not like TD's trading style or whatever, but what people like about TD is, not just that he has been incredibly generous and open with his time over a long period, but that by and large he acts like a gentleman, treats people with respect (except those who make it obvious that they don't warrant it) and has been particularly helpful and patient with newbies.

Think on lad.
 
Citi: No Obvious Relationship Between Gold And Inflation

"Thus the current price of gold may already price-in very high inflation (or very weak dollar) expectations, which if not met could lead to a sharp reversal for the metal. In this fashion, many gold bulls could end up correct in their inflation (or weak dollar) predictions, yet wrong in terms of the price they paid for gold relative to their prediction."
 
Blah blah blah. Get a backbone, miss lunch and start being a Gecko, that's your only hope in avoiding being just another wannabe trader on T2W.

Think on grandad.
 
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