wackypete2
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I have just 1 word to say about the euro: @#$#%#)^&!!
Hi Pete,
Does this mean you lost money?
Don't worry mate, many people were caught out.
I had a short sniper trade on the Kiwi the other day and it was meant to go down but it decided to turn around and follow the Euro.
It took off and never looked back.
Stipid Kiwi, I'll never touch it again.
wackypete2
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Lost money on the overnight trade I had, but recovered all but 1.7 pips via my normal daytrading. That was a lot of work to recover the loss though
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gen...ading-general-chat-lounge-55.html#post1775382
This choppy action trading is for the birds!
Peter
wackypete2
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I'll be looking to get short the eurusd again overnight.
Peter
Peter
Pete
Me too, but I'm scared to leave a trade unattended.
Under normal circumstances the EUR would go down but this market is unpredictable.
It looks like large sums of $ are moving around and the large swings are likely to hit our SL's.
wackypete2
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I was in for a while but I saw it turning around and got out.
The market was too unpredictable
N Rothschild
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just sold eur's for the sunday evening greek bailout gap up/down Russian roulette! lets hope there isnt rounds in every chamber!!
N Rothschild
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wimped out and covered..obviously dont have the stones i used to!
rogue8
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Euro's taking the pi*s - it just kept going up. Still short though with wide stops. Record net short interest in the COT... that's my confirmation bias for now (confirmation of useless hope and greed, that is). Dubious Greece (non-)deal will make it 'interesting'.
Masquerade
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Haven't done much myself, been a bit trigger shy since earlier in the week. Don't really want to buy, no point selling (although did a little of that). Maybe i'll find the courage for some buys next week depending. Obviously you know about the FOMC / bond stuff that happened?
pff....cmon! You gave it 17 mins before you pussed out?!? At least let it go offside a few hundred pts before deciding to close.
MoonRocket
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Given the behaviour of the Euro lately, I'd say there are some massive shorts being unwound.
Turtle Forex
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Well here is the long and short of it (pun intended)...
The EUR/USD is sitting 10 pips below the 38.2% Fib on the daily chart. Now before all you EUR shorts get too excited, lets take a look at the underlying move.
I mentioned earlier that the EUR/USD is down more on USD weakness than EUR strength..Sans the USD and JPY, the EUR is really on up on the CAD and slightly up on the GBP. The USD on the other hand is down against everything and showing no sign of letting up. The EUR is even showing a bit of strength on its own..Everything looks "toppy"...but we've all been on the wrong side of that interpretation at one time or another.
Personally here is how I see things playing out; I think we are going to see a 50-60 pip gap down Sunday. What that's going to do is sucker some of the retail shorts into "averaging" their positions. Then real money is going to jump in and push the EUR/USD up through 1.3250 and squeeze the shorts out, pushing the market towards the 50% Fib @ 1.3425. From there who knows..
The EUR will pull back...eventually...but at what level and how much is anyone's guess...
Have a great weekend!
The EUR/USD is sitting 10 pips below the 38.2% Fib on the daily chart. Now before all you EUR shorts get too excited, lets take a look at the underlying move.
I mentioned earlier that the EUR/USD is down more on USD weakness than EUR strength..Sans the USD and JPY, the EUR is really on up on the CAD and slightly up on the GBP. The USD on the other hand is down against everything and showing no sign of letting up. The EUR is even showing a bit of strength on its own..Everything looks "toppy"...but we've all been on the wrong side of that interpretation at one time or another.
Personally here is how I see things playing out; I think we are going to see a 50-60 pip gap down Sunday. What that's going to do is sucker some of the retail shorts into "averaging" their positions. Then real money is going to jump in and push the EUR/USD up through 1.3250 and squeeze the shorts out, pushing the market towards the 50% Fib @ 1.3425. From there who knows..
The EUR will pull back...eventually...but at what level and how much is anyone's guess...
Have a great weekend!
Attachments
Hi Joe
You could be right there.
And hopefully there will be a big correction on Monday which will allow me to close some of my positions because I have a bad feeling about all this.
Yes but can we afford to wait?
What if the USD doesn't get back to its previous low level this year?
What if Bernanke's comments the other day were intentional and signaling a change in US policy?
What if he wants to lower the value of the $ and boost US competitiveness and help reduce US unemployment?
I think I should now put a 1 year short on the USD
Bernanke says Fed pondering further stimulus | Reuters
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Very possible or there are some massive shorts placed on USD.
Either way, those of us who have a permanent short on EUR should read this
The coming resolution of the Eurozone crisis | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
Turtle Forex
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For those that are interested here is another read on EUR/USD and AUD/USD:
SSI: Traders Heavily Long USD, Contrarian Signal to buy EURUSD, AUDUSD | DailyFX
FXCM's Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) is a measure of FXCM clients positions. As of the above article published on Jan 26, 63% of FXCM's retail clients were short EUR/USD. Yesterday that percentage increased to almost 70%. What could this mean? It could mean large hedge funds, the ones that can actually move the market in one direction or another have quietly been building their long EUR/USD positions the last couple weeks and are licking their chops and preparing to deliver the final blow that squeezes out the remaining shorts.
The increase of EUR/USD shorts yesterday were either (retail) traders on the sideline picking a top or current EUR/USD shorts averaging down and praying the 38.2 fib holds as resistance. Big money knows that. It's a pattern that repeats itself with more reliability than any indicator that us little guys can throw on a chart! The little guy see's his overbought RSI, the little guy plays economist and determines the market "has" to come down...but it keeps going up...Big money does not care about indicators, fib lines, elliot waves or economic data. What they care about is where the little guys are positioned because the little guy is a seller when they are a buyer and a buyer when they are a seller. Sure fundamentals will ultimately determine long-term market direction, but the swings that big money will generate on the way there are the reason that 90% or so of retail traders are not profitable.
Us little guys can't move the market, that's why with almost 70% of retail traders short EUR/USD the market keeps going up. And that's why in this game the rich get richer...
SSI: Traders Heavily Long USD, Contrarian Signal to buy EURUSD, AUDUSD | DailyFX
FXCM's Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) is a measure of FXCM clients positions. As of the above article published on Jan 26, 63% of FXCM's retail clients were short EUR/USD. Yesterday that percentage increased to almost 70%. What could this mean? It could mean large hedge funds, the ones that can actually move the market in one direction or another have quietly been building their long EUR/USD positions the last couple weeks and are licking their chops and preparing to deliver the final blow that squeezes out the remaining shorts.
The increase of EUR/USD shorts yesterday were either (retail) traders on the sideline picking a top or current EUR/USD shorts averaging down and praying the 38.2 fib holds as resistance. Big money knows that. It's a pattern that repeats itself with more reliability than any indicator that us little guys can throw on a chart! The little guy see's his overbought RSI, the little guy plays economist and determines the market "has" to come down...but it keeps going up...Big money does not care about indicators, fib lines, elliot waves or economic data. What they care about is where the little guys are positioned because the little guy is a seller when they are a buyer and a buyer when they are a seller. Sure fundamentals will ultimately determine long-term market direction, but the swings that big money will generate on the way there are the reason that 90% or so of retail traders are not profitable.
Us little guys can't move the market, that's why with almost 70% of retail traders short EUR/USD the market keeps going up. And that's why in this game the rich get richer...
wackypete2
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I'm short from earlier today @ 1.3160, targeting 1.3100, stop 1.3200
Only entered with a 1/2 position since most of the the eur pairs have been volatile lately.
Peter
Only entered with a 1/2 position since most of the the eur pairs have been volatile lately.
Peter
