Who would you vote for?

[Trader333]

I don't buy Alistair Darlings growth figures which he has used to pretend to the public that the
level of debt he has given us is justifiable and manageable.

I completely agree with this and anyone who has studied markets knows that they go down much faster than they go up. The 3.5% decline (which the IMF has said will be over 4%) cannot bounce back up by the same percentage in my view. It is much more likely that any rise would be very small ie in the 1% range.


Paul

 

[Mr. Charts]

I see Gordon Brown has read this thread.
25 votes
1 for Labour..........

 

[poborsky]

I completely agree with this and anyone who has studied markets knows that they go down much faster than they go up. The 3.5% decline (which the IMF has said will be over 4%) cannot bounce back up by the same percentage in my view. It is much more likely that any rise would be very small ie in the 1% range.


Paul

-1.9% for the first quarter. Already over half way to the -3.5% forecast. Even in the good years of growth since the election of this govt quarterly gdp has rarely exceeded 1%. He is asking the world to believe that next year gdp is going to return to this type of figure. +3.5% for 2010!!! Even the IMF figures are already looking comical. If darling had stood up and told the truth during the budget speech then sterling and the gilts market would have collapsed. True annual inflation figures are already into double digits. What are the real unemployment figures, taking into account groups not included, people moved to other types of benefit so that they dont show up in the statistics etc? I doubt that this govt will be able to borrow its way out of the mess it has created without a visit to the IMF, because its all unraveling very rapidly. The UK gilts market is being propped up by the BOE printing money for the govt to buy back its own bonds. What a farce.

 

[Pat494]

I am voting for any party that promises free sweets for the under 10s AND
free booze for OAPs.
The latter would save the NHS and pensions billions

 

[Atilla]

-1.9% for the first quarter. Already over half way to the -3.5% forecast. Even in the good years of growth since the election of this govt quarterly gdp has rarely exceeded 1%. He is asking the world to believe that next year gdp is going to return to this type of figure. +3.5% for 2010!!! Even the IMF figures are already looking comical. If darling had stood up and told the truth during the budget speech then sterling and the gilts market would have collapsed. True annual inflation figures are already into double digits. What are the real unemployment figures, taking into account groups not included, people moved to other types of benefit so that they dont show up in the statistics etc? I doubt that this govt will be able to borrow its way out of the mess it has created without a visit to the IMF, because its all unraveling very rapidly. The UK gilts market is being propped up by the BOE printing money for the govt to buy back its own bonds. What a farce.

Very potent point here and this one hits it on the head.

To finance the debt government must sell bonds. But at these low interest rates no one will buy.

As stated only other option is to print money to finance debt.

Inflation will rise and interest rates will follow and the pound will sink. We will then have what we had through out lates 70s and 80s where private investment will be crowded out by government borrowing competing for savings.

In inflationary environments savers lose so back to buying farms and houses again...

Then the government will hit us all with capital gains & inheritance tax.

No way out guys but to leave the UK imo. Like bailing out of a sinking ship...

If the city's reputation also sinks - those companies requiring finance will go else where for raising their capital. Then with no manufacturing and no finance industries the only thing left is global warming to make the UK a tourist destination with the low value of the pound.

The worst is yet to come.

 

[Trader333]

I am curious as to why France is expected to have positive growth in 2010 ?


Paul

 

[Atilla]

I am curious as to why France is expected to have positive growth in 2010 ?


Paul

Interesting observation Paul, I'm not sure my self.

BBC NEWS | Business | 'Deeper' recession ahead says IMF got the chart from here...

I'm guessing here - it may have something to do with possibly % of government debt and perhaps France is more of an agricultural based economy still and food prices may compensate. Will post if/when I find out the reason behind IMFs stats.

 

[Pat494]

Let's NOT get too depressed boys, after all we haven't had a half decent government in living memory.
This is one of the few "professions" which takes upturns, downturns and backflips in its stride and still makes money.
So roll the dice and lets get it on

 

[Joey25]

Vince Cable, Ken Clarke and Frank Field.

Sadly, Field was one of many Brown victims.

 

[Pat494]

Imho we need
1.someone with good ideas not bad ideas that bankrupt the country.
2.someone with foresight not the usual party hack
3.someone with some bite not the usual political spineless jelly.
etc.

 

[Glenn]

Having been born into austerity in 1946 and then through rationing until 1952, I can say that world was a calmer sweeter place to live despite our family having nothing.
We made our own toys, there was no TV, home telephone, fridge, washing machine, central heating or car, the loo was outside in the back yard as was the tin bath for Friday night baths in the kitchen, we had meat on the table one day a week and played outside most of the time.
Parents were making-do-and-mending, putting buttons in a jar, and string in a bag, and growing veg in the garden. The country owed £1billion (1945 exchange rates) to the USA - only fully paid back in 2006.
The main difference then was that there were more jobs to be had and we brought in people from the 'Empire' to drive the buses, work in Foundries etc.
For my money the world could have stayed like that forever - no need for 'growth', hi tech gadgets, 'keeping up with the Joneses'. We were all healthy and happy apart from GP advice that smoking was ok !

So as regards the current prospects, as we used to say in the cinema after watching the programme, "This is where I came in".
If you want to accelerate some kind of return to 'growth and prosperity', bring back Maggie Thatcher in her prime to sort out the mess, kill off the waste and get us all lean and mean quickly again.

Glenn

 

[rathcoole_exile]

bring back Maggie Thatcher in her prime to sort out the mess,

too true !

if only this were possible.

perhaps the only "hi tech growth" we should have had was the ability to clone Maggie so we could have perpetual leadership of the quality required

 

[Atilla]

Having been born into austerity in 1946 and then through rationing until 1952, I can say that world was a calmer sweeter place to live despite our family having nothing.
We made our own toys, there was no TV, home telephone, fridge, washing machine, central heating or car, the loo was outside in the back yard as was the tin bath for Friday night baths in the kitchen, we had meat on the table one day a week and played outside most of the time.
Parents were making-do-and-mending, putting buttons in a jar, and string in a bag, and growing veg in the garden. The country owed £1billion (1945 exchange rates) to the USA - only fully paid back in 2006.
The main difference then was that there were more jobs to be had and we brought in people from the 'Empire' to drive the buses, work in Foundries etc.
For my money the world could have stayed like that forever - no need for 'growth', hi tech gadgets, 'keeping up with the Joneses'. We were all healthy and happy apart from GP advice that smoking was ok !

So as regards the current prospects, as we used to say in the cinema after watching the programme, "This is where I came in".
If you want to accelerate some kind of return to 'growth and prosperity', bring back Maggie Thatcher in her prime to sort out the mess, kill off the waste and get us all lean and mean quickly again.

Glenn

I have no idea where this misplaced loyalty comes from...

1. Maggie disclipined the trade unions - which was good. Arthur Scargill was a fruit cake imo.

2. She decimated manufacturing - not made it lean and mean and put it back on it's feet again. UK has no manufacturing left anymore...

3. She took unemployment upto 3m +++. It's just a little above 2m now.

4. She sold off nationalised industries to pay for Public Sector Borrowing Requirement topping $45-50bn.

5. As a consequence North Sea oil was pretty much squandered - contributing 2-3% to GDP alone at one stage.

6. We lost $7bn in fighting the Argies...

7. We lost another approximately £7bn of reserves on the Mr Lamont v Germans view on value of the £1.95=DM.

8. She closed down every freaking hospital and school and public service where there was a spare bed or seat and then had to spend money rebuilding and opening them up again.

9. She pretty well messed up British Rail and most experts agree current situ is an operational nightmare.

10. She introduced financial deregulation...

11. She handbagged Europe and got some money back

12. She introduced councils tax which is one of the most unfair - inefficient and difficult forms of taxation to calculate or collect. Business rates went up causing nightmare for startups.

All these periods were during my years of being a student of economics with no political agenda other than to exist.

Just because the global economy hyped between 1980-2000 doesn't reflect on the fantastic leadership skills of Maggie. Just pure chance and opportunitism.

You know they also say Ragean ran a collosal budget defecit and bankrupted the USSR regime. Perhaps so but look who is having the last laugh now with oil and gold as parts of its natural reserves.

I'm not sure the US is likely to recover from their twin defecits for another couple of decades to come and we will be right by their heels.

 

[Glenn]

The loyalty comes perhaps from having been around longer and seen more. No government is perfect - it's a question of the lesser of evils.
I agree with you that the swings from Red to Blue and back can become extreme, and that a middle (Liberal ?) road would be preferred, but we need tough commercial medicine right now. Many will suffer whoever is in power and it's a poisoned chalice for any election winner.

Other responses embedded below.
Glenn

I have no idea where this misplaced loyalty comes from...

1. Maggie disclipined the trade unions - which was good. Arthur Scargill was a fruit cake imo.
Agreed
2. She decimated manufacturing - not made it lean and mean and put it back on it's feet again. UK has no manufacturing left anymore...
Our manufacturing industry was inefficient uncompetitive rubbish, which is why it coiuld never stand up to aompetition from Japan and the like. Lazy greedy management and workers got what they deserved, not what they wanted.

3. She took unemployment upto 3m +++. It's just a little above 2m now.
Yup - lean and mean and the incompetent and complacent deservedly out of work.

4. She sold off nationalised industries to pay for Public Sector Borrowing Requirement topping $45-50bn.
In order to recover the mess created by Labour and the Unions, and give Joe Public the chance to own shares

5. As a consequence North Sea oil was pretty much squandered - contributing 2-3% to GDP alone at one stage.
??? It was Labour in 2006 who were accused of squandered it

6. We lost $7bn in fighting the Argies...
Who'se side were you on then ?

7. We lost another approximately £7bn of reserves on the Mr Lamont v Germans view on value of the £1.95=DM.
And our ejection from the ERM ushered in a decade and a half boom.

8. She closed down every freaking hospital and school and public service where there was a spare bed or seat and then had to spend money rebuilding and opening them up again.
Tough medicine to sort the wheat from the chaff.

9. She pretty well messed up British Rail and most experts agree current situ is an operational nightmare.
Agreed
10. She introduced financial deregulation...
But she didn't allow it to run riot as Labour have done.

11. She handbagged Europe and got some money back
Agreed

12. She introduced councils tax which is one of the most unfair - inefficient and difficult forms of taxation to calculate or collect. Business rates went up causing nightmare for startups.
Labour have kept the Council tax running and since 2000 have allowed the Coucils to screw us in order to bolster their pensions and to create non-jobs as a vote catcher.
"nightmare for startups" as in Loadsamoney ?

All these periods were during my years of being a student of economics with no political agenda other than to exist.

Just because the global economy hyped between 1980-2000 doesn't reflect on the fantastic leadership skills of Maggie. Just pure chance and opportunitism.
Don't agree. It was the difference betwenn a meritocracy and virtual communism.

You know they also say Ragean ran a collosal budget defecit and bankrupted the USSR regime. Perhaps so but look who is having the last laugh now with oil and gold as parts of its natural reserves.
Russia is just a bit player. A current laugh maybe, but the last ? I don't think so.

I'm not sure the US is likely to recover from their twin defecits for another couple of decades to come and we will be right by their heels.
Agreed

 

[N Rothschild]

Having been born into austerity in 1946 and then through rationing until 1952, I can say that world was a calmer sweeter place to live despite our family having nothing.
We made our own toys, there was no TV, home telephone, fridge, washing machine, central heating or car, the loo was outside in the back yard as was the tin bath for Friday night baths in the kitchen, we had meat on the table one day a week and played outside most of the time.
Parents were making-do-and-mending, putting buttons in a jar, and string in a bag, and growing veg in the garden. The country owed £1billion (1945 exchange rates) to the USA - only fully paid back in 2006.
The main difference then was that there were more jobs to be had and we brought in people from the 'Empire' to drive the buses, work in Foundries etc.
For my money the world could have stayed like that forever - no need for 'growth', hi tech gadgets, 'keeping up with the Joneses'. We were all healthy and happy apart from GP advice that smoking was ok !

So as regards the current prospects, as we used to say in the cinema after watching the programme, "This is where I came in".
If you want to accelerate some kind of return to 'growth and prosperity', bring back Maggie Thatcher in her prime to sort out the mess, kill off the waste and get us all lean and mean quickly again.

Glenn

WW2 really did finish this once great country off...

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Vince Cable, Ken Clarke and Frank Field.

I read that as Frank Ifield ("I remember you-hoooooo....")

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Having been born into austerity in 1946 and then through rationing until 1952, I can say that world was a calmer sweeter place to live despite our family having nothing.
We made our own toys, there was no TV, home telephone, fridge, washing machine, central heating or car, the loo was outside in the back yard as was the tin bath for Friday night baths in the kitchen, we had meat on the table one day a week and played outside most of the time.
Parents were making-do-and-mending, putting buttons in a jar, and string in a bag, and growing veg in the garden. The country owed £1billion (1945 exchange rates) to the USA - only fully paid back in 2006.
The main difference then was that there were more jobs to be had and we brought in people from the 'Empire' to drive the buses, work in Foundries etc.
For my money the world could have stayed like that forever - no need for 'growth', hi tech gadgets, 'keeping up with the Joneses'. We were all healthy and happy apart from GP advice that smoking was ok !

So as regards the current prospects, as we used to say in the cinema after watching the programme, "This is where I came in".

I'm slightly younger, but not much, and I remember exactly the kind of world you describe (it didn't begin to change until the early sixties really), including the zinc bath & "the doings" out the back.

If you want to accelerate some kind of return to 'growth and prosperity', bring back Maggie Thatcher in her prime to sort out the mess, kill off the waste and get us all lean and mean quickly again.

Glenn

*oof*, now I wouldn't go that far squire .....

 

[Atilla]

2. She decimated manufacturing - not made it lean and mean and put it back on it's feet again. UK has no manufacturing left anymore...

Our manufacturing industry was inefficient uncompetitive rubbish, which is why it coiuld never stand up to aompetition from Japan and the like. Lazy greedy management and workers got what they deserved, not what they wanted.

Now we have no base to recover from. Skills lost forever. Just like a parent can't dismiss their children for being naughty Government can not treat its people with contempt you prescribe. It's the typical old stiff upper lip snobbish British attitude. Whipping is too good for some people. Shoot em in the head and have done with it. So how would you describe the bail out of the fat cats. Is it what they deserve? I strongly disagree with your attitude. Pretty much same creed as Mrs Thatcher.

3. She took unemployment upto 3m +++. It's just a little above 2m now.
Yup - lean and mean and the incompetent and complacent deservedly out of work.

Same ilk as your reply in 2. Bankers were pretty incompentent lot. Lets cut them out and have a lean and mean finance industry governed by Frankfurt perhaps. I mean we don't have British Leyland anymore what's the difference in having our banks abroad too. We've sold Rowntree to the Nestles I think it was. Just wondering what will be left based on your attitude.

4. She sold off nationalised industries to pay for Public Sector Borrowing Requirement topping $45-50bn.

In order to recover the mess created by Labour and the Unions, and give Joe Public the chance to own shares

I'm all for capitalism and having ownership in shares and so forth but your Joe public and average Sid were restricted on how much shares they could have. Majority of the shares were placed with big corporations majority of which was US and international based.

Moreover, to make it a success these public owned companies were sold tuppance. Why not sell it to the public as much as they wanted to buy?

Gross redistribution of national wealth for eye candy... People were mugged and likes of you were fooled. imo...

5. As a consequence North Sea oil was pretty much squandered - contributing 2-3% to GDP alone at one stage.

??? It was Labour in 2006 who were accused of squandered it

Not true. By 90s it was running out.

6. We lost $7bn in fighting the Argies...

Who'se side were you on then ?

I would question the cost of war over gains. The war isn't over imo. Argies still have a claim. International peaceful channels for negotiations could have been attempted. People always too ready to rush in to war. She was pretty unpopullar with the up-coming elections and the war saved here seat. Typical sabre rattling to get elected. Not out of merit just per chance...

7. We lost another approximately £7bn of reserves on the Mr Lamont v Germans view on value of the £1.95=DM.

And our ejection from the ERM ushered in a decade and a half boom.

Incorrect assessment imo. France/Germany - Spain - Italy - Portugal - Greece all pretty much surpassed us in Europe. EMS was a good system. You only have to look at the value of the pound against DM or the Euro to determine strength of economies... Parity with Euro not far away. This is purely because the ability of the Europeans to earn their way surpasses our work effort.

As for the boom we just simply caught up with global boom. Not our doing.

8. She closed down every freaking hospital and school and public service where there was a spare bed or seat and then had to spend money rebuilding and opening them up again.

Tough medicine to sort the wheat from the chaff.

Nonsense. Absolute rubbish. She gave tax discounts and concessions to privat hospitals and insurance companies. Two solution system. Undermined the NHS. Redistribution of wealth away from the public sector to private.

Same as building roads and giving tax efficient company cars to every tom dick and harry. It was only later realised the NHS was starved of funds and road network could not keep up with the private car and public transport wa the future. Policy change... 180 turn. Moreover, when the private sector runs up alloted health insurance, patients switched over to NHS again. Whole setup was a scam.

People are mis-informed and dellusional imo.

9. She pretty well messed up British Rail and most experts agree current situ is an operational nightmare.
Agreed

10. She introduced financial deregulation...

But she didn't allow it to run riot as Labour have done.

Not fan of Labour either. Not fan of anyone as common sense and nationalism / patriotism long lost to pure greed and corruption. Doesn't make it right though - Tory or Labour bunch of self interested public school boy ******s just like the bankers. Totally out of touch...

11. She handbagged Europe and got some money back
Agreed

12. She introduced councils tax which is one of the most unfair - inefficient and difficult forms of taxation to calculate or collect. Business rates went up causing nightmare for startups.

Labour have kept the Council tax running and since 2000 have allowed the Coucils to screw us in order to bolster their pensions and to create non-jobs as a vote catcher.
"nightmare for startups" as in Loadsamoney ?

Cost of replacement as well ability to raise money and keep council workers in employment I'm sure is high on their list. Coupled with criticism of what ever they replace it with.

Just because the global economy hyped between 1980-2000 doesn't reflect on the fantastic leadership skills of Maggie. Just pure chance and opportunitism.

Don't agree. It was the difference betwenn a meritocracy and virtual communism.

Communism would have died either way. Because it is a worse system than democracy.

You know they also say Ragean ran a collosal budget defecit and bankrupted the USSR regime. Perhaps so but look who is having the last laugh now with oil and gold as parts of its natural reserves.

Russia is just a bit player. A current laugh maybe, but the last ? I don't think so.

I think Balance of Power has shifted to BRIC countries without a doubt. Next 20-50 years will show this to be...

I'm not sure the US is likely to recover from their twin defecits for another couple of decades to come and we will be right by their heels.
Agreed

Interesting reflecting on the past. I do feel sincerely that 80s have contributed to our pains today.

I feel anxious trepidation at the thought of seeing the young generation of today screw up the next 20-30 years. I hope not but certainly don't feel optimistic about their abilities.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Russian oil: from what I read, the reserves are not as much as was once thought and probably past their peak. The post-communist period was followed by a mafia-type rape of the country's resources. Average life expectancy fell to something staggering like 45 or something.
Last laugh? For the few bazillionaires perhaps. For the majority, it sounds like a living hell, i.e. not much different to before.

 

[Glenn]

OK we disagree on various points. "Never get into an argument about politics or religion"
No need to make it personal though.

The trick is to make the best of whoever is in power because you only get one vote, and to stay one step ahead of the game, as in trading.

Glenn

2. She decimated manufacturing - not made it lean and mean and put it back on it's feet again. UK has no manufacturing left anymore...

Our manufacturing industry was inefficient uncompetitive rubbish, which is why it coiuld never stand up to aompetition from Japan and the like. Lazy greedy management and workers got what they deserved, not what they wanted.

Now we have no base to recover from. Skills lost forever. Just like a parent can't dismiss their children for being naughty Government can not treat its people with contempt you prescribe. It's the typical old stiff upper lip snobbish British attitude. Whipping is too good for some people. Shoot em in the head and have done with it. So how would you describe the bail out of the fat cats. Is it what they deserve? I strongly disagree with your attitude. Pretty much same creed as Mrs Thatcher.

3. She took unemployment upto 3m +++. It's just a little above 2m now.
Yup - lean and mean and the incompetent and complacent deservedly out of work.

Same ilk as your reply in 2. Bankers were pretty incompentent lot. Lets cut them out and have a lean and mean finance industry governed by Frankfurt perhaps. I mean we don't have British Leyland anymore what's the difference in having our banks abroad too. We've sold Rowntree to the Nestles I think it was. Just wondering what will be left based on your attitude.

4. She sold off nationalised industries to pay for Public Sector Borrowing Requirement topping $45-50bn.

In order to recover the mess created by Labour and the Unions, and give Joe Public the chance to own shares

I'm all for capitalism and having ownership in shares and so forth but your Joe public and average Sid were restricted on how much shares they could have. Majority of the shares were placed with big corporations majority of which was US and international based.

Moreover, to make it a success these public owned companies were sold tuppance. Why not sell it to the public as much as they wanted to buy?

Gross redistribution of national wealth for eye candy... People were mugged and likes of you were fooled. imo...

5. As a consequence North Sea oil was pretty much squandered - contributing 2-3% to GDP alone at one stage.

??? It was Labour in 2006 who were accused of squandered it

Not true. By 90s it was running out.

6. We lost $7bn in fighting the Argies...

Who'se side were you on then ?

I would question the cost of war over gains. The war isn't over imo. Argies still have a claim. International peaceful channels for negotiations could have been attempted. People always too ready to rush in to war. She was pretty unpopullar with the up-coming elections and the war saved here seat. Typical sabre rattling to get elected. Not out of merit just per chance...

7. We lost another approximately £7bn of reserves on the Mr Lamont v Germans view on value of the £1.95=DM.

And our ejection from the ERM ushered in a decade and a half boom.

Incorrect assessment imo. France/Germany - Spain - Italy - Portugal - Greece all pretty much surpassed us in Europe. EMS was a good system. You only have to look at the value of the pound against DM or the Euro to determine strength of economies... Parity with Euro not far away. This is purely because the ability of the Europeans to earn their way surpasses our work effort.

As for the boom we just simply caught up with global boom. Not our doing.

8. She closed down every freaking hospital and school and public service where there was a spare bed or seat and then had to spend money rebuilding and opening them up again.

Tough medicine to sort the wheat from the chaff.

Nonsense. Absolute rubbish. She gave tax discounts and concessions to privat hospitals and insurance companies. Two solution system. Undermined the NHS. Redistribution of wealth away from the public sector to private.

Same as building roads and giving tax efficient company cars to every tom dick and harry. It was only later realised the NHS was starved of funds and road network could not keep up with the private car and public transport wa the future. Policy change... 180 turn. Moreover, when the private sector runs up alloted health insurance, patients switched over to NHS again. Whole setup was a scam.

People are mis-informed and dellusional imo.

9. She pretty well messed up British Rail and most experts agree current situ is an operational nightmare.
Agreed

10. She introduced financial deregulation...

But she didn't allow it to run riot as Labour have done.

Not fan of Labour either. Not fan of anyone as common sense and nationalism / patriotism long lost to pure greed and corruption. Doesn't make it right though - Tory or Labour bunch of self interested public school boy ******s just like the bankers. Totally out of touch...

11. She handbagged Europe and got some money back
Agreed

12. She introduced councils tax which is one of the most unfair - inefficient and difficult forms of taxation to calculate or collect. Business rates went up causing nightmare for startups.

Labour have kept the Council tax running and since 2000 have allowed the Coucils to screw us in order to bolster their pensions and to create non-jobs as a vote catcher.
"nightmare for startups" as in Loadsamoney ?

Cost of replacement as well ability to raise money and keep council workers in employment I'm sure is high on their list. Coupled with criticism of what ever they replace it with.

Just because the global economy hyped between 1980-2000 doesn't reflect on the fantastic leadership skills of Maggie. Just pure chance and opportunitism.

Don't agree. It was the difference betwenn a meritocracy and virtual communism.

Communism would have died either way. Because it is a worse system than democracy.

You know they also say Ragean ran a collosal budget defecit and bankrupted the USSR regime. Perhaps so but look who is having the last laugh now with oil and gold as parts of its natural reserves.

Russia is just a bit player. A current laugh maybe, but the last ? I don't think so.

I think Balance of Power has shifted to BRIC countries without a doubt. Next 20-50 years will show this to be...

I'm not sure the US is likely to recover from their twin defecits for another couple of decades to come and we will be right by their heels.
Agreed

Interesting reflecting on the past. I do feel sincerely that 80s have contributed to our pains today.

I feel anxious trepidation at the thought of seeing the young generation of today screw up the next 20-30 years. I hope not but certainly don't feel optimistic about their abilities.