Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[kriesau]

Rumour has it that the Chinese will revalue their currency peg soon. That should send the Dow way up !!

Believe that and you must also take the premise that "the moon is made of green cheese" seriously

 

[kriesau]

Incidentally I had a short on the NAS 100 from end Dec.. I didn't actually look at it much at all.. just sort of followed the NasC.. when I did look I thought, wow, that is a big % drop and I closed it.. should have not looked! LOL, cos it fell further...

Well done, you must have made 200 points there !

 

[kriesau]

Think I will have to just walk away and leave it to get on with it... got those figures tomorrow which should be the decider

Me too - I'm keeping my 10447 short open.

 

[kriesau]

130 has gone. at last..!!

will we get a decent follow through?

Yeah it took 4 hours and 6 attempts to get out of that range. Key level is now resistance at 10150 - if it can really breach that then you'll get your 10180

 

[roguetrader]

Yeah it took 4 hours and 6 attempts to get out of that range. Key level is now resistance at 10150 - if it can really breach that then you'll get your 10180

Quick question mate, whats key about 150?

 

[Racer]

The S&P is not getting through the 1154 level.

A very interesting chart pattern is developing today... if.. it fully develops then the Dow will close around 10080

S&P 1147

 

[kriesau]

Quick question mate, whats key about 150?

Resistance level. It's had 3 attempts to breach it and has now fallen back.

 

[kriesau]

It has the potential to go to 9000 but, it depends on the next few days really, I haven't got any completely fixed ideas because you never know what is going to happen.
I nearly closed part of my shorts today but the way it behaved didn't give me the impression it was convincing enough for me to do that. I have got a lot of profit and the temptation is to take it, but letting the profit run is often more difficult!

Racer - at what level are your shorts ?

 

[trendie]

I think the bear-flag that I see ( others may view it differently ) has started to lag.

speculative SHORT to trigger at 10,120, if it falls there.

problem is, I have set my mind on seeing the Dow fall, so I am "looking" for reasons to short!!!
(if I was bullish, what pattern would I make myself see?)

EDIT: couldnt wait!! SHORT at 10,128. Stop-Loss: 11,496. (secret Fib-number)

 

[tradesmart]

This ‘bounce’ is part of a developing continuation pattern imho, and has backed off of the 38.2% fib retracement level now at around 10160, but could still reserve the right to test 50%/61.8%…..

Interesting how the 161.8% fib extension level coincides with the former upper consolidation resistance level at 580….

I note that current developments are happening at just above the 50% mark between 10360 and 9700, which may prove to be significant…(4hr chart)..........

 

[Racer]

Chart pattern too choppy in the end for that confirmation of pattern

kriesau.. my shorts... uh, several positions 10850 and downwards, lowest originally was 10600 but in effect rolled them by taking the profit and putting them back on again. I have added further to them around 10540 and 10250.

Looks like I might close some judging from after hours!

 

[ducati998]

Market Internals
Issues..................................................... NYSE ..................................................Nasdaq
Advancing ...............................................2,458..................................................... 2,077
Declining.................................................... 814........................................................ 980
Unchanged ................................................143 ........................................................131
Total......................................................... 3,415.................................................... 3,188

Ratio
Advancers to Decliners .........................3.02.......................................................... 2.12

Volume
Advancing.......................................... 1,178,321,000 ..................................1,343,534,000
Declining............................................... 394,170,000 .....................................429,625,000
Unchanged .............................................36,881,000 ........................................22,044,000
Total................................................... 1,609,372,000 ...................................1,795,203,000

Looks bullish for tomorrow at least, if you ascribe any importance to issues advancing on volume.............was a disconnect today, with not much on a range bound day, could trend tomorrow.

cheers d998

 

[tradesmart]

Yeh – Intel, a Dow30 component of course, appears to have done ‘the business’……!......futs up to and a bit beyond 160 former resistance......

Intel Corp. (INTC) reported a higher first-quarter profit of $2.2 billion, or 34 cents a share, compared with the year-ago profit of $1.7 billion, or 26 cents a share. Sales climbed 17% to $9.4 billion. The results beat Wall Street's expectations of 31 cents a share on revenue of $9.3 billion. Ahead of the report, Intel shares closed up 42 cents, or 1.9%, at $22.63.

 

[kriesau]

Intel profits up 25% over the same quarter last year. Stock up 3% after hours.

 

[Racer]

Wonder how much that was currency trading?! Will have to have a look

 

[Racer]

Hmm, will see.. might close the whole lot tomorrow...
Always another day to get back in! And cash in the bank is cash in the bank! And I have got quite a few £K sitting waiting for me to close

Keeping an open mind here

 

[tradesmart]

I mentioned earlier that the current geometry could be a developing continuation pattern….

The other possibility is that it could morph into a reversal pattern to form the lower resistance line of a falling wedge triangle – the objective/ target would then be a test of the upper trendline linking the 11000ish (futs) high with the recent 540 reversal high, which would mean a test of former 360 support from the underside as resistance, pending a possible breakout on the third test of the falling top trendline…..(theoretical details attached..)

A speculative scenario of course, but one to watch for imho if the bulls get the upper hand………

 

[ducati998]

Racer,
What does your trading plan tell you to do?

You are not falling victim to indecision, listening to gossip, market noise, news reports, bullish sentiment, are you?

That is the point of having a trading plan, it should remove to as large an extent as possible, the emotional component of your trading decisions.
Sentiment fluctuates, Prices fluctuate, news bias fluctuates..........the trading plan is the constant in a sea of change.

cheers d998

 

[Racer]

That's it.. am out apart from a small position which I can't close right now... need to assess from the sidelines and pocketed quite a lot whilst I am waiting

 

[Racer]

Racer,
What does your trading plan tell you to do?

I go by what the market is saying.. I don't know what it is saying at the moment so I need to sit on the sidelines. I can't do that with the big position I had, it will cloud my judgement.