What will HowardCohodas's month on month return be for March?

[HowardCohodas]

All the posts are frustrating on both sides of the divide....i'll give you a clue, we/they/us/me/you/them and wotsisface don't seem to be getting anywhere do we ?

Page after page after page of tripe (i'm being kind here) and to what end? A slight lull for a while, then resumption and more of the same.

I think from here on that if I don't detect a sea shift in attitude from all sides then i'll be left with no alternative but to close this and other threads down.

And here I thought I had tempered my tone of late to cause you less heartburn. Again, perhaps I flatter myself.

And here I am desperately seeking some criticism that actually is responsive to the details of my strategy. I have found none so far in the threads that criticize my strategy. In spite of my pleas, noone has offered any candidates for me to consider. And none of the new posts come close to qualifying, although AR has one that has the glimmer of hope. It would be nice to have some fair and balanced commentary in my restricted thread, even if it is so rare in the open ones that noone has suggested a candidate.

 

[DashRiprock]

All the posts are frustrating on both sides of the divide....i'll give you a clue, we/they/us/me/you/them and wotsisface don't seem to be getting anywhere do we ?

Page after page after page of tripe (i'm being kind here) and to what end? A slight lull for a while, then resumption and more of the same.

I think from here on that if I don't detect a sea shift in attitude from all sides then i'll be left with no alternative but to close this and other threads down.

look CV you can't legitimatly close down my "complaint" thread and let this shorsesh!t continue. Fact of the matter is that only a bakers dozen people understand what he's doing and the rest are 1.5 holes deep.

Do the decent thing and close them all.

 

[DashRiprock]

All the posts are frustrating on both sides of the divide....i'll give you a clue, we/they/us/me/you/them and wotsisface don't seem to be getting anywhere do we ?

Page after page after page of tripe (i'm being kind here) and to what end? A slight lull for a while, then resumption and more of the same.

I think from here on that if I don't detect a sea shift in attitude from all sides then i'll be left with no alternative but to close this and other threads down.

Specifically, I did try to explain to howard the flaws in his strategy. And when you read the thread in its entirety you can see that I was only one of a dozen or so that said pretty much the same thing.

But the reality is that it has been covered a hundred times why what he's doing is pointless so stop the whole bloody thing. the people that havent cottoned on by now (including howard) should be considered collateral damage. Better off without them.

 

[Depth Trade]

tbh depth trade I support your overall argument but you shouldn't really brag about punting on silver to the upside with a risk reversal. It doesn't exactly make you sound all serious and professional like me.

...only if you're in 100% of balance. Howard was clueless on his risk.

The position I have was perfectly placed.

 

[HowardCohodas]

Specifically, I did try to explain to howard the flaws in his strategy. And when you read the thread in its entirety you can see that I was only one of a dozen or so that said pretty much the same thing.

But the reality is that it has been covered a hundred times why what he's doing is pointless so stop the whole bloody thing. the people that havent cottoned on by now (including howard) should be considered collateral damage. Better off without them.

If you were the contributor that you purport to be, then please nominate one of your posts for my restricted thread that analyzes any element of my strategy and shows how it is faulty.

Saying that only a handful of people can understand this stuff is prima facie risible. When the premises are suspect or clearly false, it is beyond reason to expect anyone to believe the conclusion, whether true or false.

 

[counter_violent]

And here I thought I had tempered my tone of late to cause you less heartburn. Again, perhaps I flatter myself.

And here I am desperately seeking some criticism that actually is responsive to the details of my strategy. I have found none so far in the threads that criticize my strategy. In spite of my pleas, noone has offered any candidates for me to consider. And none of the new posts come close to qualifying, although AR has one that has the glimmer of hope. It would be nice to have some fair and balanced commentary in my restricted thread, even if it is so rare in the open ones that noone has suggested a candidate.

Well H, you don't need to seek any criticism from members here. Your strat gave you all the criticism you needed with a big fat smack in the nether regions.

Some things cannot be patched or plugged up if in fact they are fundamentally unsound !

 

[HowardCohodas]

Some things cannot be patched or plugged up if in fact they are fundamentally unsound !

Well then, you must have some sound and reasoned criticism for me to add to my restricted thread. Submit your own or point me to one from another poster that addresses some specific element of my strategy that can be analyzed and found faulty. Please don't disappoint me and offer nothing specific to support your conclusion.

 

[megamuel]

I know bugger all about options but I'd be pretty damn worried if the likes of Arabian, Dash, Martinghoul, the hare, and amit1986 were criticizing my strategy. In fact, I'd scrap it and start again. Actually Howard, I think you a pretty damn lucky to be getting some help from these guys, I wish they would help me!

Anyway, CV is right, this whole thing is becoming pretty tiresome now. HoCo isn't getting anywhere, the critics aren't getting anywhere, the mods aren't getting anywhere... And it's not even funny anymore!! Shut this sh1t down CV!!!

 

[HowardCohodas]

megamuel, you remind me of those who stop at an accident and hold your nose and shake your head with disgust. If you are uncomfortable and cannot help, then don't stop. Those of us who are first responders have a word for people like you, but I'll not press my luck here and share it in the clear.

 

[megamuel]

Howard, I hope that is just an analogy and not something you think I would actually do in real life. If so, it is a pretty low blow to suggest I'd stand and watch when there is an accident and not help, just because I criticized this thread. In fact, that is a pretty horrible thing to say. I understand why you are being defensive but there is no need to get personal with me. But yes I see why you liken this thread to an accident.

I have nothing against you, you have made me chuckle here and there and you are clearly intelligent. Much more so than me. But the guys I mentioned are also very intelligent and some have been involved in this kind of trading professionally for much longer than you. So, personally, I'd be very concerned if they were picking holes in my strategy. My main point however is that you don't seem to be getting anything from their criticism, they seem to be getting tired/fed up of it and the mods have almost had enough. Its going around in circles and nobody is getting anywhere. Surely enough is enough?

Again, this is not a criticism of you, only the current situation on this thread so please don't come back with any more "We have a word for people like you..." type personal attacks.

Sam.

 

[HowardCohodas]

megamuel, you remind me of those who stop at an accident and hold your nose and shake your head with disgust. If you are uncomfortable and cannot help, then don't stop. Those of us who are first responders have a word for people like you, but I'll not press my luck here and share it in the clear.

I should have used the word "that" instead of the word "you" in that paragraph. It was careless of me. I apologize for causing you discomfort because of my carelessness.

The point was nonetheless important. If the thread bothers you and you don't know how to help, don't stop, don't comment.

 

[HowardCohodas]

Well H, you don't need to seek any criticism from members here. Your strat gave you all the criticism you needed with a big fat smack in the nether regions.

Some things cannot be patched or plugged up if in fact they are fundamentally unsound !

It's hard to win a case against someone who is witness, judge, jury and executioner all wrapped up in one person. But you take the hand you are dealt and carry on.

 

[megamuel]

Apology accepted. But I think just because I am not intelligent enough to help doesn't mean I shouldn't be allowed to comment and give my opinion. At least my post wasn't lulzy or mocking anyone, I just gave my unbiased view - I don't care who's right and who's wrong I was just saying nobody seems to be getting anywhere. And the thread doesn't bother me as much as it is clearly bothering some people.

So, I think I'll leave it to the mods to decide when I shouldn't comment but as for not stopping here again, now that is a good suggestion. Good luck HoCo.

Sam.

 

[rosehound]

Howard,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

Picking up pennies in front of steam rollers. That is the specific criticism of your strategy.

You are systematically selling options, without systematically viewing them as overpriced. The premium you receive from your short options by definition will not cover your losses in the long run, once bid/offer spread, slippage, risk of market gaps and commission etc. is factored in your strategy is guaranteed to lose.

Now, as the steamroller analogy is meant to show, people employing these strategies often have good results, they make money - for a time. Then comes the day that they lose all they have made and more - that is not a dramatized statement, it is a statement of fact.

As I understand it the main tenets of your strategy are some form of money management - this is irrelevant, you cannot money manage away the risks you are exposing yourself to. And, mainly I think, a "probability of touching" measure that is supposed to ensure you set the condor wide enough that you hardly ever get into trouble. Well, and this is fact based, the problem is that the market already has "probability of touching" factored in by way of lower premiums for further OTM options. This means that you are at best (at the very best) merely playing a 'fair' game - you widen the condor, you receive less premium, a smaller future loser wipes that profit out. You tighten the strikes, get more premium but have more losers.

You have said that you don't think 9 months of results is enough data, but then you bandy your account balance around as if that is proof it is a good strategy! The conflict present in that behaviour is staggering. You could carry on like this for several years before you really blew out. I don't care if you do all your money, I kind of hope you do as maybe then you'll realise what is going on - my only motivation for posting this is intellectual, as in I have some kind of need to step in and correct blatant and dangerous errors, as I think people like MG and Arab do as well.

That is all. Cheers.

 

[robster970]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

'Know thyself' Howard (and I mean in an Aristophanic sense)

 

[the hare]

I thought this passage from Taleb's "The Black Swan" was a reasonable analogy to why Howard believes he has an edge.

Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race "looking out for its best interests," as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.

The turkey problem can be generalized to any situation where the same hand that feeds you can be the one that wrings your neck.

 

[robster970]

+1

I thought this passage from Taleb's "The Black Swan" was a reasonable analogy to why Howard believes he has an edge.

Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race "looking out for its best interests," as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.

The turkey problem can be generalized to any situation where the same hand that feeds you can be the one that wrings your neck.

 

[Mr. Charts]

Hey HoCo,
You describe yourself as a sharpshooter and also a first responder.
Is that some sort of hedging strategy or do you make money from both sides?
Richard

 

[TheBramble]

Hey HoCo,
You describe yourself as a sharpshooter and also a first responder.
Is that some sort of hedging strategy or do you make money from both sides?
Richard

(Bollox Richard, I vowed not to inflate this clown's traffic and you've gone and made me break it....)

No Richard, I'm sure if it was a hedging strategy, Mr. H would apply the same logic as he does to his Iron Albatrosses –he’d place the hedge, see if that flew, then if it didn’t, make the main trade.

As for the complementarity of his skillset – it makes sense if you have a gun, and frequently intend to shoot yourself in the foot, to have someone on hand to attend to the wound inflicted.

 

[Mr. Charts]

Multiple self-inflicted gunshot wounds to his feet will prevent him getting anywhere with his planned travel agency, and his customers and hoped-for trading students, should they take up the challenge, will get as far as HoCo himself in this video starring the man himself.

HoCo, I admire your persistence and have nothing against you, you make me smile, but do consider where persistence morphs into foolhardiness.