What is your forecast for EUR/USD three months from now?

[darktone]

This is nowhere near the predictions of @darktone or @counter_violent.

Prediction?

 

[hhiusa]

Wow! The EUR/USD is in the $1.07 range and a low of $1.0675. The American banks and firms like Goldman Sachs are likely to be proven right concerning their prediction that the euro will reach parity with the dollar. :clap::clap::clap:

This is a 6 month low. Plunge, baby, plunge!!!

 

[counter_violent]

Wow! The EUR/USD is in the $1.07 range and a low of $1.0675. The American banks and firms like Goldman Sachs are likely to be proven right concerning their prediction that the euro will reach parity with the dollar. :clap::clap::clap:

This is a 6 month low. Plunge, baby, plunge!!!

And the 3% range 1.16-1.18 was hit within days of your first post....so what's your point ?

Do you imagine that these American banks were sitting on drawdown from 1.10 while EU took it's little deviation !

 

[hhiusa]

And the 3% range 1.16-1.18 was hit within days of your first post....so what's your point ?

Do you imagine that these American banks were sitting on drawdown from 1.10 while EU took it's little deviation !

My first post was 3 months ago. The thread was about where the EUR/USD will be in three months from that time. It was not about where it would be in a few days. It doesn't matter where it was, it matters where it is and where it is going. From $1.16 to $1.07 is a 7.7% drop in 3 months. That is pretty bad. I said it will fall and the banking institutions said it would fall precipitously, which it has and I believe it will continue to do so.

Come on baby, reach parity with the dollar.

 

[metrader]

Probably some kind of rangy price action brought up by never ending manipulations

PS It's irrelevant what the people believe imo

.

 

[hhiusa]

.

@counter_violent said the EUR/USD reached $1.16 within a few days of my first post, but your picture seems to contradict that. The EUR/USD is a sinking ship. It has been limping on ever since. In spite of its brief rally recently, I foresee it dropping even more.

Come on baby, reach parity with the dollar.

 

[Fugazsy]

EU 30M

Faded the previous 20 bar high, risked little (3.4), covered half @ +8 and now SL to BE, not sure what will happen next, I do not have any control over that.

 

[metrader]

@counter_violent said the EUR/USD reached $1.16 within a few days of my first post, but your picture seems to contradict that. The EUR/USD is a sinking ship. It has been limping on ever since. In spite of its brief rally recently, I foresee it dropping even more.

Come on baby, reach parity with the dollar.

I'm afraid you missed my point hhusa. In my original post I wanted to warn about relying on various polls and what the masses believe.

This thread is an excellent example – you mentioned about most of the people believing that the euro will fall...Look at the eurusd daily chart I posted covering 3 months after – most of them would have lost the money if they shorted it! As I rightly guessed in my original post – the price was stuck in a range (kind of a range where shorts would have lost) and ended 33.3 points higher after 3 months (almost the same)
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/att...forecast-eur-usd-three-months-now-33-pips.jpg

So just ignore other people's opinion and do you own analysis if you want to be a successful trader. Especially if there is a majority of them believing what ever they want to (some traders tend to observe the masses and do the opposite)

 

[hhiusa]

I'm afraid you missed my point hhusa. In my original post I wanted to warn about relying on various polls and what the masses believe.

This thread is an excellent example – you mentioned about most of the people believing that the euro will fall...Look at the eurusd daily chart I posted covering 3 months after – most of them would have lost the money if they shorted it! As I rightly guessed in my original post – the price was stuck in a range (kind of a range where shorts would have lost) and ended 33.3 points higher after 3 months (almost the same)
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/att...forecast-eur-usd-three-months-now-33-pips.jpg

So just ignore other people's opinion and do you own analysis if you want to be a successful trader. Especially if there is a majority of them believing what ever they want to (some traders tend to observe the masses and do the opposite)

Just because it was slightly higher exactly 3 months to the day from the first post, the EUR/USD is not doing well. Look at the bigger picture of the graphs I posted.

Since it would be idiotic to buy to cover on a short sell at a loss, if you had hung in there those pollsters would be vindicated. 5 days after the 3 months, it was below the start point. Look at the EUR/USD now. I believe it closed around $1.07745. The price prediction chart from Dukascopy Bank definitely shows a downtrend. While it did not drop in the exact time, a downturn was predicted and here we are around a 2.5% loss from the starting price.

 

[metrader]

Just because it was slightly higher exactly 3 months to the day from the first post, the EUR/USD is not doing well. Look at the bigger picture of the graphs I posted.

Since it would be idiotic to buy to cover on a short sell at a loss, if you had hung in there those pollsters would be vindicated. 5 days after the 3 months, it was below the start point. Look at the EUR/USD now. I believe it closed around $1.07745. The price prediction chart from Dukascopy Bank definitely shows a downtrend. While it did not drop in the exact time, a downturn was predicted and here we are around a 2.5% loss from the starting price.

That was my guess in July – oscillating and reverting to the mean. I wouldn't be surprised if the next deviation (south one) is smaller than previous (north) and if the price ends in three months' time where it is today - central banks won't allow any big deviations imo.

There are opportunities there for traders to make money, but I don't think it helps to make your trading decisions based on polls organized by brokers. Most of that kind of traders who shorted in July either took losses or waited for three months and closed for break even after being in a losing position most of the time. I don't think there are many of them who would happily wait 3 more months after all that pain.

 

[hhiusa]

That was my guess in July – oscillating and reverting to the mean. I wouldn't be surprised if the next deviation (south one) is smaller than previous (north) and if the price ends in three months' time where it is today - central banks won't allow any big deviations imo.

There are opportunities there for traders to make money, but I don't think it helps to make your trading decisions based on polls organized by brokers. Most of that kind of traders who shorted in July either took losses or waited for three months and closed for break even after being in a losing position most of the time. I don't think there are many of them who would happily wait 3 more months after all that pain.

I created the poll here as a thought experiment because I got the idea from Dukascopy Bank's existing poll. I do not base my investment strategies based upon polls, it was debate only.

Additionally, I would never hold a currency position for that long anyway. Shorting the EUR/USD is the same as betting the dollar will strengthen. If I thought the USD would strengthen I would prefer to just buy more US equities. By contracting to sell one currency, an investor is, by implication, also contracting to purchase another currency, as currencies always trade in pairs. By way of example, if an investor entered into a contract to purchase euros (EUR) by selling U.S. dollars (USD), this transaction in itself would create a net short USD position and a net long EUR position. Conversely, if I were to enter into a contract to purchase USD by selling EUR, this transaction itself would create a net long USD position and a net short EUR position. Being in America, I am at a long USD position if I have not purchased the EUR/USD pair.

 

[hhiusa]

The EUR/USD is now trading in the $1.06. :clap:

 

[Fugazsy]

1.01

 

[tar]

Banks own all currencies , if their euros go up - in value - their $$$ will be down and vice versa , up and down in currencies are relative ...

 

[prok]

Eur/Usd is falling, both recent news and history show it.

 

[NVP]

not much evidence persuading me to buy EU at present .........

Green usd is one way bull traffic and blue Euros recent 2015 bull phase stalled in the summer and now has been well and truly hammered :smart:

N

 

[hhiusa]

EUR/USD is now trading in the $1.05 range. YTD return -12.44%.

 

[Forexmospherian]

EUR/USD is now trading in the $1.05 range. YTD return -12.44%.

So negative return and that's before the Banksters decided to try back up to 0900 ?

Two words of the day - Banksters and suckers !!!

Fortune telling is for magicians

 

[hhiusa]

So negative return and that's before the Banksters decided to try back up to 0900 ?

Two words of the day - Banksters and suckers !!!

Fortune telling is for magicians

There is no need for fortune telling. The writing is on the wall for the euro. Hopefully, the Brexit is passed, the UK secedes the EU and maybe, hopefully, Germany follows suit.

Germany and the UK should stop propping up the eurozone.

 

[metrader]

That was my guess in July – oscillating and reverting to the mean. I wouldn't be surprised if the next deviation (south one) is smaller than previous (north) and if the price ends in three months' time where it is today - central banks won't allow any big deviations imo.

There you go: