robster970
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,567
- Likes
- 1,390
As long as I'm ahead of Pete, I don't feel so bad!
Pat494
Legendary member
- Messages
- 14,614
- Likes
- 1,588
FINANCIALS: THE ACHILLES' HEEL
Financials, worth more than 13 percent of the S&P 500 and the second-most influential group behind technology stocks, have been subjected to drastic cuts in earnings estimates.
"That's obviously the Achilles' heel of the market," said Robbert Van Batenburg, head of equity research at Louis Capital in New York. "Investment banking is probably going to be very moribund, bank lending is still not existing, and there are no gains to be booked at all."
Banks (Euronext: SBK.NX - news) are also suffering from worries about possible write-downs of euro-zone debt and less profitable lending due to the U.S. Federal Reserve's new measures to lower longer-term interest rates.
Financial institutions (NasdaqGS: FISI - news) ' shares have been dragged lower in recent days on renewed fears of exposure to European debt. Credit-default swaps, a measure of the cost of insurance against default on long-term debt, have been climbing.
"The wild card here is really the banks. That's really where the earnings for the S&P have been kind of jerked around in the last couple years," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., in San Francisco.
Insurers are also very susceptible to a lower-rate environment, while energy and consumer discretionary sectors are vulnerable to see-sawing commodity prices and damaged confidence.
For the country's biggest insurers, the Fed's "Operation Twist," designed to stimulate credit for consumers and businesses, could threaten earnings for years to come. The problem is returns on insurers' investment portfolios can't keep pace with the obligations they have accumulated from torrid sales of annuities and life policies.
Financials, worth more than 13 percent of the S&P 500 and the second-most influential group behind technology stocks, have been subjected to drastic cuts in earnings estimates.
"That's obviously the Achilles' heel of the market," said Robbert Van Batenburg, head of equity research at Louis Capital in New York. "Investment banking is probably going to be very moribund, bank lending is still not existing, and there are no gains to be booked at all."
Banks (Euronext: SBK.NX - news) are also suffering from worries about possible write-downs of euro-zone debt and less profitable lending due to the U.S. Federal Reserve's new measures to lower longer-term interest rates.
Financial institutions (NasdaqGS: FISI - news) ' shares have been dragged lower in recent days on renewed fears of exposure to European debt. Credit-default swaps, a measure of the cost of insurance against default on long-term debt, have been climbing.
"The wild card here is really the banks. That's really where the earnings for the S&P have been kind of jerked around in the last couple years," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., in San Francisco.
Insurers are also very susceptible to a lower-rate environment, while energy and consumer discretionary sectors are vulnerable to see-sawing commodity prices and damaged confidence.
For the country's biggest insurers, the Fed's "Operation Twist," designed to stimulate credit for consumers and businesses, could threaten earnings for years to come. The problem is returns on insurers' investment portfolios can't keep pace with the obligations they have accumulated from torrid sales of annuities and life policies.
Atilla
Legendary member
- Messages
- 20,781
- Likes
- 3,983
For Week Ending Friday 23rd Sept 2011
Name.............Call.........Direction.......Podi um .........sub Total……………Total
Gaffs1964………..1180…………..1……………...….0…………….……..1……… … … … .…..15
Pat494……………..1166……..…..1…………….…….2…………………….3…………… .… . ....15
wackypete2.…….1226………….…0……….…….……0……….………..…0…………. … … …….13
robster970……….1252……………0………….….……0…………………….0………….. … …. ....12
Atilla………………..1204…………..0……………….….0…………………….0…………… … … … ..11
dpinpon...........1170..........1................1 .. ..............2....................11
Isatrader…………..1250.….…….0……………….….0…………………….0………… … …. … ….7
Av…………………….1204…….…….0…………………...0…………………….0………… . .. …. ….6
Rathcoole exile..0000..........0................0........... . . ..0.....................5
dc2000............1121...........1.................3.................4...................5
debrox............1247..........1.................0. ................1....................5
Wt av………….....1206.………...0…….…….……….0………………..….0…… … .… … …… .4
Tim3..............0000..........0................. 0 . ...............0..... .............3
tomekinv.........0000..………...0…………………..0……………………..0 … ………… ….…..1
DonStar..........1222.5..........0................. 0. . ............0....................0
Great pick to dc2000. Started late but racing up the board ! I think DonStar may have his charts upside down ? Would have had a perfect score otherwise !
Last week this week of the quarter, so dwell on it a bit folks
Anyway good luck for next week !!
Pat you short changing me?
Should I not get une puan for getting direction right?
dc2000
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,766
- Likes
- 129
as long as I get head I dont feel so bad!
Pat494
Legendary member
- Messages
- 14,614
- Likes
- 1,588
Pat you short changing me?
Should I not get une puan for getting direction right?
Um certainly looks like it - sorry usual ****-up this end
( gotta win somehow but)
hopefully right now
Last edited:
robster970
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,567
- Likes
- 1,390
1190 - I'm with Gaffs on the long side this week.
Fully out of the market, locked some pretty good bucks in.
Pat494
Legendary member
- Messages
- 14,614
- Likes
- 1,588
You still alive Pete ?
wackypete2
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,211
- Likes
- 2,058
Yes, still here! I got involved with something last night and forgot to make a call
1155 for me.
Since it's late it'll only count if I'm wrong :whistling
Peter
Sorry for the on and off comments, went long again and hope for a short squeeze, who the duck cares if my bet on the board is utterly wrong, the thing is to make dough here.
Good afternoon all.
wackypete2
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,211
- Likes
- 2,058
Most of us aren't actually making the week-long trades. It's just for some fun. Congrats on the profits
Peter
Pat494
Legendary member
- Messages
- 14,614
- Likes
- 1,588
For Week Ending Friday 30th Sept 2011 at 1131.4
Name........Call.........Points.......Direction.......Podi um ........sub Total……………Total
Atilla………..1089…………..12............1……………….….3…………………….4…………… … … ….16
Gaffs1964..1188…………..15............0……………...….0…………….……...0……… … … .…..15
Pat494……..1180……..…..15..............0……………….0…………………....0…………… .… .....15
wackypete2.1155………….13..............0………….……0……….………..….0………… . … … ….13
dpinpon......1075..........11...............1.............1 ..................2..................13
robster970….1190……………12............0………….….….0…………………….0……... … …. ....12
Isatrader…….1076.….…....7.............1……………….….2…………………….3………… … … ….10
Av……………….1134…….…...7.............0………………...0……………………0………..… . .. … ….7
Wt av…….....1142………......5...........0…….…….……..0………………..…..0…… … .….…… ..5
dc2000.........1143...........5............0............... 0.................0..................5
Rathcoole exile..0000.........5............0................0................0..................5
debrox............0000.........4............ 0. ..............0................0..................4
Tim3..............0000..........2............0................ 0 . .............0... .............2
tomekinv.........0000..……...1..............0…………………..0……………….. 0 … ……… ….…..1
So the grand winner of the 3rd quarter is.........(drum roll) Atilla. A very well done to you sir
:clap:
Name........Call.........Points.......Direction.......Podi um ........sub Total……………Total
Atilla………..1089…………..12............1……………….….3…………………….4…………… … … ….16
Gaffs1964..1188…………..15............0……………...….0…………….……...0……… … … .…..15
Pat494……..1180……..…..15..............0……………….0…………………....0…………… .… .....15
wackypete2.1155………….13..............0………….……0……….………..….0………… . … … ….13
dpinpon......1075..........11...............1.............1 ..................2..................13
robster970….1190……………12............0………….….….0…………………….0……... … …. ....12
Isatrader…….1076.….…....7.............1……………….….2…………………….3………… … … ….10
Av……………….1134…….…...7.............0………………...0……………………0………..… . .. … ….7
Wt av…….....1142………......5...........0…….…….……..0………………..…..0…… … .….…… ..5
dc2000.........1143...........5............0............... 0.................0..................5
Rathcoole exile..0000.........5............0................0................0..................5
debrox............0000.........4............ 0. ..............0................0..................4
Tim3..............0000..........2............0................ 0 . .............0... .............2
tomekinv.........0000..……...1..............0…………………..0……………….. 0 … ……… ….…..1
So the grand winner of the 3rd quarter is.........(drum roll) Atilla. A very well done to you sir
:clap:
robster970
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,567
- Likes
- 1,390
Relatively close quarter for the old hands looking at the scores
