Weekly forecast for S&P 500 cash 2011

[Pat494]

For Week Ending Friday 2nd September at 1174

Name.............Call.........Direction.......Podi um .........sub Total……………Total

Pat494……………..1211……..…..0…………….…….0…………………….0…………… .… . ...12
Gaffs1964………..1229…………..0……………...….0…………….……..0……… … … … .…..11
robster970……….0000……………0………….….……0…………………….0………….. … …. ..11
wackypete2.…….1205……………0……….…….……0……….………..…0…………. … … …….9
Atilla………………..1210………….0……………….…..0…………………….0…………… … … … 8
Isatrader………….1230.….………0……………….….0…………………….0…………… …. … ….7
dpinpon..........1190..........0.................0 .. ...............0..................5
Av…………………….1214…….…….0…………………...0…………………….0…………. .. …. …5
Rathcoole exile..0000.........0.................0........... . . ..0...................5
Wt av………….....1214.………..0…….…….………..0………………..….0……… .… … …… ..3
Tim3..............0000.........0.................0 . ................0..... ..............2
debrox............1247.........0................0. ................0....................1
DonStar..........1193.........0................0. . ...............0....................0
Icchong76………..0000………….0…………………..0……………………..0…………… …………..0

This performance guys leaves a lot to be desired - as my headmaster might have said. But we were all right up until the last 3 minutes.

 

[isatrader]

Hi Pat, I think you've made a mistake as everyone had the direction as up and the market closed down? So there was no winner this week and everyone should have got no points?

 

[tim3]

I think we gonna re-test the lows first then later in the year a big rally.

We are due a rally and when things settle down a little and people start to look at yields of some of the big caps vod,sse and gsk for example all yielding around 5% or more this compares well with whats available elsewhere and they are relitivley safe companys.

1120 this week please Pat,

 

[Pat494]

Hi Pat, I think you've made a mistake as everyone had the direction as up and the market closed down? So there was no winner this week and everyone should have got no points?

Yes you are quite right - I seem to have thought 1200 was Friday's close

Nil points everyone !!

Better analysis next week hopefully

 

[dpinpon]

Pat, I had the closest guess entry, but did count no points as I got the direction wrong then.
Im asking due to be the first time ever happening this "everybody got the direction wrong".

 

[Pat494]

Pat, I had the closest guess entry, but did count no points as I got the direction wrong then.
Im asking due to be the first time ever happening this "everybody got the direction wrong".

It happened again about 3 months ago.
Well done in being closest tho, but wrong direction so no points this week.

 

[Pat494]

I am relying on Bertie to pick the direction this week and he says up, so 1199 for me

 

[dpinpon]

It happened again about 3 months ago.
Well done in being closest tho, but wrong direction so no points this week.

Ok, hope to have better luck next time. Seems week will start off awfully plummeting, hopefully fed beiges book on wednesday reverse these scenario. Im picking 1155.

 

[debrox]

The recent decline was bogus. I'm thinking 1247.

 

[Atilla]

On the weeklies pinochios nose (candle sticks) shows the 1200+ break out was a lie

Last week we tested resistance 1200+ and failed.

I reckon this week will be testing 1100 support.

1150 for me please Pat...

 

[robster970]

1115 for me this week.

 

[DonStar]

Learning as I go along. Not easy to predict a weekly close.

Pat: Thank you for your time and effort to provide this learning experience.

1175 this week.

Don

 

[isatrader]

Volatility stills rules at the moment as seen by the quick reversal at the long term 61.8% Fibonacci level around 1230 last week. That, and the ominous large pin bar on the weekly chart is giving me some cause for concern that we might move lower again. However, there are still some positives, for example on the daily chart an uptrend channel has developed since the August low forming a higher low and higher high and the price is still in the middle of the range so that channel will offer some support. Also the long term point and figure uptrend line is still holding out and would need a break below 1140 to change it but last weeks reversal did give a high pole warning which means prices retraced more than 50% of the breakout from the triangle pattern and invalidates the breakout.

I still think we're carving out a bottom here as there's big resistance at 1090-1130 according to the Price by Volume on my P&F chart, so I'm going stay with the fledgling channel for now and think the price will move down to 1150 area and hopefully bounce back up towards the middle of the channel around 1200 this week.

So 1200 for me this week please Pat

 

[Pat494]

Nice charts Isatrader as always

Encourages me to add one of mine

 

[Pat494]

22:58, Friday 2 September 2011

NEW YORK (Xetra: A0DKRK - news) , Sept 2 (Reuters) - Friday's jobs report that showed hiring in the United States unexpectedly ground to a halt in August is increasing speculation the U.S. Federal (SES: E1:F20.SI - news) Reserve will move to stimulate the economy. But will it help stocks?

Fed action -- if it happens -- is no longer viewed as the elixir for the stock market it once was.

Wall Street tumbled over 2 percent on Friday as investors fretted more about the economic outlook rather than looking ahead to another round of Fed bond buying.

Next (Xetra: 779551 - news) week, the question of whether the Fed will step up to the plate with another round of quantitative easing will take center stage with a highly anticipated speech from President Barack Obama. That could make for another volatile week.

This time last year, anticipation of a second round of quantitative easing, or QE2, sparked an almost uninterrupted rally that lifted the S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC - news) around 30 percent from August to May.

What a difference a year makes. Confidence (BSE: ZCONFIDE.BO - news) in policy makers is sapping away as the economy languishes, the United States grapples with the loss of its top-notch credit rating, and the European Union seems to be coming undone at the seams.

Wall Street sees an 80 percent chance the Federal Reserve will intervene in the bond market to lower long-term interest rates, according to a Reuters poll on Friday.

But Friday's action in the stock market signaled that equity investors do not see that prospect as silver bullet for their woes. The broad-based S&P 500 index fell 2.5 percent on the day.

"This downdraft is based on sentiment and that has to be turned around," said Brian Battle, vice president of trading at Performance Trust Capital Partners in Chicago. "I think we're in for a longer trend of either malaise or just a down channel."

That means traders and investors who were hoping for a return to normalcy after extreme volatility in August may have to wait a little longer.

Obama is due to address a joint session of Congress on Thursday to lay out plans to create jobs, boost economic growth and lower the deficit.

He faces an uphill struggle when it come to reassuring investors, who fault the lack of consensus in Washington. Heading into an election year, the disharmony is not likely to get better any time soon.

Nonfarm payrolls were unchanged last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, and figures for previous months were also revised down to show employers created a combined 58,000 fewer jobs than had been thought in June and July.

The U.S. Treasury market rallied after the data as Goldman Sachs and other U.S. primary dealers -- big Wall Street firms that do business directly with the Fed -- said they expect the U.S. central bank to start buying longer-dated bonds after its Sept. 20-21 meeting.

Seasoned traders say that August's extreme volatility was one of the most trying periods in living memory, outstripping the 2008-2009 meltdown and the 1987 stock market crash on Black Monday.

"I've been doing this for 20 years and it's never been more exhausting," said the chief executive of a New York-based proprietary trading firm, who said many of his traders closed out their positions in August, reducing the firm's inventories to just 15 to 20 percent of what they could be.

At least some of that volatility looks set to spill over into September until there is more clarity over the economy and what the Fed is likely to do at its Sept. 20-21 meeting.

But some fund managers who take a more long-term view are using pullbacks to cut back positions that have done less well while increasing positions in their preferred stocks.

Many fund managers are still convinced the U.S. economy will avoid a recession and stocks will rally into the end of the year.

One of them, Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia, does not expect the Fed to act this month. He is not expecting a recession, but admits he has become more defensive.

"We used some of the volatility to swap out lower yields for higher yields, believing that a combination of income with capital growth potential will help us weather days like today," he said. "Equity values should still hold their own if not appreciate given the still-good corporate profit picture."

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Sunday. Questions or comments on this column can be e-mailed to: edward.krudy(at)thomsonreuters.com) (Reporting by Edward Krudy; Additional reporting by Ryan Vlastelica; Editing by Leslie Adler)

 

[Gaffs1964]

oh dear, I'm going to disagre with Bertie - 1140 for me please

 

[wackypete2]

The recent decline was bogus. I'm thinking 1247.

I agree.
1205 again for me.

If I feed the parrot a few extra crackers maybe I'll get a better number :whistling

Peter

 

[tomekinv]

1122 for me.

 

[Pat494]

average = 1169
wt average = 1170

up = 5
down = 7

highest = 1247
lowest = 1115

sorry a bit late this week - had computer probs

:clover:

 

[debrox]

Germany just announced it will back the poopoo countries. Hence, 1247.