Walid Salah Eldin's Market Analysis

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The markets are waiting for clues from the Fed and BOJ

The oil prices could extend their rally which has been prompted by the end of last week by rising speculations of watching harsher winter in US, after the snow storms hit its east coast.

The oil rebound could prop up again the risk appetite which has been extended also into the first Asian session of this week sending the Japanese yen down across the broad.

From another side, the greenback has been exposed to selling pressure on the speculations of watching US economic slowdown in the first quarter of this year because of the bad weather to delay the next tightening step of the Fed which will by closely watched this week to show the markets how concerned is it about the global economy, after the turmoil in the beginning weeks of this year because of the Chinese economic slowdown and the oil prices slide.

While BOJ chief Kuroda said during the weekend from Davos that BOJ is not so much concerned about the real economy because of the financial market turmoil, however we need to be careful.

Kuroda indicated that if the underlining inflation is to be seriously affected capping reaching the 2% inflation target, there will be expanding of the QE by many ways.

The markets will be closely watching this week, the Japanese inflation data of December and BOJ's meeting outcome to know more about the impact of the Japanese yen strength in the recent weeks with the oil prices slide which can place the Japanese economy under deflation pressure again.


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

USDJPY could extend its rally from 115.96 with the risk appetite improving

USDJPY could extend its rebound from 115.96 to be traded currently near 118.70, after breaking 118.36 which could cap its previous rebound from 116.67.

USDJPY daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is reading now 116.01 in its second day of being below the trading rate, after rebound extension to 118.86 last Friday.

While USDJPY daily RSI is referring now to existence in the neutral region reading now 47.879, while its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the overbought area above 80 reading now 87.048 leading its signal line which is still in the neutral region reading now 71.339.


Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 120.69, Daily SMA100 @ 120.65 and Daily SMA200 @ 121.48

S&R:

S1: 116.45
S2: 115.96
S3: 115.55
R1: 119.68
R2: 120.64
R3: 121.49


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The harsh winter in US could drive the oil prices higher

After Brent Mar. 16 could shrug off higher than expected rising of US crude inventories containing last Wednesday falling to $27.10 by rising to $29.83 last Thursday, it could extend this rebound to reach $32.48 in the beginning session of the new week touching its Hourly SMA100 currently and getting closer to its Daily SMA20
The oil prices have been negatively impacted by implying the Iranian nuclear deal but it could now contain most of last week falling which reached $27.10.
Brent Mar. 16 daily RSI is now well into the neutral region reading 44.591 while its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in into 90.327 leading its signal line which is still in the neutral region reading now 62.406, after continued existence in the oversold area below 20 since Jan. 8.
Brent Mar. 16 daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is referring today to $27.20 in its second day of being below the trading rate, after rising extension last Friday to $32.29.

Important levels: Daily SMA20 @ $32.89, Daily SMA50 @ $38.09, Daily SMA100 @ $43.47 and Daily SMA200 @ $51.27
S&R:
S1: $29.28
S2: $27.10
S3: $25.51
R1: $32.66
R2: $35.25
R3: $38.97

Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

SP-MAR16 could be boosted by the trust in sending the oil prices higher

SP-MAR16 could prolong its rising from last Wednesday low at 1804.25 to reach 1904 in the beginning of the new week.
SP-Mar16 daily RSI is reading now 40.139 in its neutral region coming from its oversold area below 30 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line into the neutral region reading 76.493 to have a closer place to the overbought area above 80, after coming from the oversold region below 20 and also its signal line is in the neutral territory but lagging behind the main line reading now 57.494
SP-Mar. 16 daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is referring today to 1806.20 in its second day of being below the trading rate, after rising extension last Friday too reached 1902.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 2011.06, Daily SMA100 @ 2004.47 and Daily SMA200 @ 2041.44
S&R:
S1: 1836.25
S2: 1804.25
S3: 1802.63
R1: 1907.25
R2: 1927.25
R3: 1946.25

Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

Oil prices continue to keep collapsing all around the world causing various social problems. The price of oil has jumped back over $30 per barrel again. The world is filled with oil stockpiles as Saudi Arabia keeps pumping out oil in an attempt to negate high-cost oil producers.
According to research by the IEA, though, oil prices should climb higher as 2016 goes on and it should soar higher at year end.
I think I am going to go with a monthly put on oil this time. It should head lower this time temporarily.

buying oil is in need for trust in watching continued expansion in US specially in the manumitting sector!, tension in Mideast and specially between Iran and Saudi Arabia!, Chinese economic soft landing after heating, higher growth pace in EU, otherwise it is to go closer to the producing cost by God's will by these floods of offers.

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

EUR/USD will test 1.07 soon as easing concerns will swill after Draghi dovish comments. Small long-term trades should be made on EUR/ pairs as it will tumble against its peers.

Yes, EURUSD is still vulnerable to the downside but we need to watch how concerned is Fed about the financial market turmoil and the global economic slowdown.

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The oil benchmarks retreating drove the risk appetite down

With the oil benchmarks retreating to $30 per barrel, The major equities indexes have been exposed to increasing downside pressure by the end of the US session to affect negatively on the Asian session which watched sell-off in the beginning of it.
WTI and Brent have been halted in the beginning of yesterday European session by facing resistance area at $32.80 whereas they have started to recede again.
The market focusing is expected to be next on the Fed which is expected to send dovish messages about the global economic slowdown to hint holding rate with no hike in the first quarter of this year, after the financial market turmoil, while the worries about the US manufacturing ability to expand further are rising in this harsh winter
From another side, The Japanese economy Minister Amari refrained from giving answers about the next BOJ's step indicating that Kuroda will do the appropriate step in the suitable time adding that he does not think that BOJ will follow the ECB by sending hinting messages, before taking new step.
While PBOC is looking caring meanwhile of the capital outflows which are threatening the Chinese decelerating economy. So, it is not expected soon to take new easing steps can lower the value of the Yuan further, while it is supporting its offshore exchange rate currently.

Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The cable shy try to fix its its oversold stance has been limited by 1.4361

After rebounding from 1.4078 to 1.4361, The cable came again under pressure to retreat for trading currently near 1.4225.

The cable rebound made its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) below the trading rate for the third consecutive day reading today 1.4084.

The cable daily RSI-14 is still into its oversold area below 30 reading now 25.911, while its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in neutral region reading 59.320 and also its signal line which is reading now 51.600, after a shy try to fix its oversold stance has been limited by reaching 1.4361.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.4814, Daily SMA100 @ 1.5065 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.5285

S&R:

S1: 1.4078
S2: 1.40
S3: 1.3844
R1: 1.4338
R2: 1.4474
R3: 1.4643


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

CL Mar. 16 came back below $30 per barrel

CL Mar. 16 started to retreat again, after reaching $32.73 yesterday following the first considerable try to fix its oversold stance which placed the mixture daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) below the trading rate yesterday before reading today 27.65 in its second day of being below the trading rate.

CL Mar 16 daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in its neutral area reading now 36.254 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having its main line now in the neutral region reading 59.736 close to its signal line which is referring to 59.046, after the rebound abated without having a chance to get over its Daily SMA20 forming yesterday long dark day to contain last Friday long white day.

Important levels: Daily SMA20 @ $32.89, Daily SMA50 @ $36.78, Daily SMA100 @ $41.23 and Daily SMA200 @ $47.40.

S&R:

S1: $27.55
S2: $26.93
S3: $25.25
R1: $32.73
R2: $33.35
R3: $35.57

Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The gold is finally well above its daily SMA100

The risk-off sentiment could add attractiveness to the gold today to surpass $1112.75 which has been its highest reached level since last Nov. 4.

The gold which is boosted too by the odds of delaying the next Fed's tightening step is now well above its daily SMA100.

The demand for safe haven could drive the gold up previously in the beginning week of the year to reach $1112.75 but it failed to maintain a place above its daily SMA100 to retreat to $1071.22 which supported the gold again keeping the existence above its daily SMA50 and also above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) for 17 consecutive days reading today $1087.65.

XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in its neutral area reading now 62.072, while its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line barely in the overbought area above 80 reading now 80.619 and leading to the upside its signal line which is reading now 75.037.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1077.62, Daily SMA100 @ $1105.57 and Daily SMA200 @ $1132.61

S&R:

S1: $1071.22
S2: $1057.98
S3: $1046.08
R1: $1123
R2: $1138.05
R3: $1149.84


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The gold could be boosted by lower interest rate outlook in US

The gold could be underpinned for another day ahead of the FOMC meeting outcome today which is expected show increasing worries about the global economic slowdown to hint holding of the interest rate with no hike in the first quarter of this year, while the doubts about the US manufacturing sector ability to expand this harsh winter are rising.

Yesterday auction of UST 2YR issuance could highlight this current lower prospects of watching higher interest rate in US, as it ended to 0.86% yield, after ending the previous auction on it on 1.056% yield on last Dec. 28 following last FOMC meeting when the Fed decided to raise its funds rate by 0.25% expecting reaching 1.375% at the end of 2016.

The gold could keep its bullish tone this week to be traded now above $1120 for the first time since last Nov. 4, despite the improving of US equities market amid oil prices rebound, upbeating Q4 earning reports and higher than expected US consumer confidence in January reached 98.1, while the consensus was referring to 96.6 after 96.3 in December.


The gold could find more demand, after getting over its daily SMA100 following surpassing $1112.75 which has been its highest reached level since last Nov. 4.

The gold could gather momentum, after holding above $1071.22 which could help the gold to bounce up again above its daily SMA50 forming a floor above $1057.98 which drove the gold to start being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) for 18 consecutive days reading today $1091.15.

XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in its neutral area reading now 65.141, while its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility could have now its main line in the overbought area above 80 reading 92.548 leading to the upside its signal line which is now also in the overbought area reading 82.631.


Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1078.54, Daily SMA100 @ $1105.67 and Daily SMA200 @ $1132.27

S&R:

S1: $1071.22
S2: $1057.98
S3: $1046.08
R1: $1123
R2: $1138.05
R3: $1149.84


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The Aussie rebound could be fueled by higher inflation rate in last year Q4

AUD could be boosted during the Asian session, after the release of higher than expected inflation figures in the fourth quarter of last year. CPI Q4 rose yearly by 1.7%, while the market was waiting for 1.6%, after 1.5% in the third quarter showing lower probability of having further stimulating measurements by RBA which has kept the interest rate unchanged at 2% since last May. 5.

AUDUSD is now trading near 0.7030, after rebounding from 0.6916 whereas it has formed higher low above its bottom of this Jan. 15 at 0.6825.

AUDUSD is still facing difficulty to get over 0.7046 which set it back twice this month

AUDUSD daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is now its fifth day of being below the trading rate reading today 0.6851.

AUDUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in its neutral area reading now 48.390 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having its main line now in the neutral region but close to the overbought area above 80 reading now 75.755 and also its signal line which is referring to 74.834

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 0.7148, Daily SMA100 @ 0.7146 and Daily SMA200 @ 0.7349

S&R:

S1: 0.6916
S2: 0.6825
S3: 0.6769
R1: 0.7046
R2: 0.7084
R3: 0.7120

Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

USDCAD formed a lower high at 1.4323 by tracking the oil prices

The oil benchmarks could lead the movement of USDCAD to watch it forming lower high at 1.4323 with WTI having higher low near $29.25.

CAD has been exposed to massive selling across the broad in the beginning weeks of this year tracking the oil prices slide which can erode the Canadian exports value causing financial pressure on the Canadian economy.

On the oil prices slide, BOC has revised down its 2016 GDP forecast to only 1.4% from 2% last week but it decided to disappoint the odds of watching another interest rate cutting by keeping the interest rate unchanged at 0.5% driving USDCAD down below 1.45 to start having its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) above the trading rate and today is the day number 5 of continued being above the trading rate reading 1.4606.

USDCAD daily RSI-14 is in the middle of the neutral territory reading 50.359, while its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the oversold area below 20 area reading 19.320 and also its signal line which is reading now 15.811.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.3837, Daily SMA100 @ 1.3506 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.3074

S&R:

S1: 1.4042
S2: 1.3895
S3: 1.3811
R1: 1.4323
R2: 1.4687
R3: 1.4946


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

As expected, The Fed highlighted the global economic slowdown risks

As expected, the Fed has kept the target for the its funds rate unchanged at 0.25% to 0.5% showing its worries about the economic outlook because of global economic slowdown and the financial development saying that "it is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook".

As expected also, The Fed's clarified waiting and see stance for assessment lowered the chance of watching interest rate hiking this quarter, while the market is waiting by the end of the week to see preliminary annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year by only 0.8%, after growth by 2% in the third quarter.

The US equities shrugged off the robust rising of US new homes sales in December by 0.544m yearly to react negatively to the Fed's dovish tone, while the US treasuries prices were rising driving their yields down but this stance has been reversed during today Asian session with risk appetite improving again sending the gold to be traded near $1120 during the Asian session, after spiking to $1127.80 following the Fed's outcome.

USDJPY could rise up above 119 during the Asian session, while EURUSD kept its trading stance close to 1.088 waiting for the preliminary release of Germany Jan CPI which is expected to show today yearly rising by 0.55 after increasing in December by 0.3%.


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

1.4365 is still caping the cable

After rising to 1.4365, the cable came again under pressure yesterday following the release of Dec UK BBA Mortgage Approvals which retreated to 43.975k, while the consensus was referring to rising to 45.500, after 44.533k in November.

The British pound has been also disappointed by Nationwide Housing Prices s.a rising this month by only 0.3%, while the forecast was pointing to increasing by 0.6% monthly, after soaring by 0.8% in December.

The cable which is waiting today for the preliminary release of UK Q4 GDP is having now its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) below the trading rate for the fifth day in a row reading today 1.4106.

The cable daily RSI-14 is now in the neutral territory barely above its oversold area below 30 reading now 32.436, while its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in neutral region reading 64.461 and also its signal line is reading now 68.965, after failing to enter the overbought area above 80 by facing repeated resistance near 1.4365 area.

The cable drawdown is now meeting its hourly SMA200 at 1.4242 below its hourly SMA50 and hourly SMA100 in a relatively deep place below its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA200

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.4777, Daily SMA100 @ 1.5043 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.5278

S&R:

S1: 1.4171
S2: 1.4078
S3: 1.40
R1: 1.4365
R2: 1.4474
R3: 1.4643


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

EURUSD resided again for trading near 1.088

EURUSD returned to keep trading near 1.088 after dipping to 1.0776 on the ECB president Draghi's hint that "The ECB may reconsider its policy stance in March amid a deteriorating economic outlook and turmoil in global markets". After turning back to 1.088 area, The pair parameters are referring now to balanced situation having its daily RSI-14 nearly in the middle of neutral region reading now 51.178 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the neutral region reading 65.057 leading to the upside its signal line which is reading now 49.208.

The pair is still below the trendline resistance extension from 1.3992 to 1.1712, after failing to rise above its daily SMA100 by facing experienced resistance at 1.0991. however it is still trying to keep existence above its daily SMA50.

The pair is now in its day number 10 of continued existence above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.0754.


Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.0841, Daily SMA100 @ 1.0976 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.1054

S&R:

S1: 1.0776
S2: 1.0709
S3: 1.0519
R1: 1.0991
R2: 1.1058
R3: 1.1098


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The oil prices resumed the correction shrugging off the US stockpile rising

Brent Mar. 16 could keep rising from its formed higher low last Monday at $29.26 to reach $33.49 yesterday unfazed of US EIA Oil stockpile growing in the week ending on Jan. 22 to 494,920m by gaining 8.383m barrels, while the market was waiting for adding 3.277m, after increasing by only 3.979m in the week ending on Jan. 15.

Brent Mar. 16 daily RSI is now well into the neutral region reading 47.744, while its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in into 81.908 leading its signal line which is still in the neutral region reading now 75.591.

Brent Mar. 16 daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is referring today to $27.99 in its fifth consecutive day of being below the trading rate.

Brent Mar. 16 could also improve its look over the short term by having a place above its Daily SMA20 for the second time this year, after being above it in the beginning trading day of the year on growing tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia.


Important levels: Daily SMA20 @ $32.08, Daily SMA50 @ $37.32, Daily SMA100 @ $42.94 and Daily SMA200 @ $50.74

S&R:

S1: $29.26
S2: $27.10
S3: $25.51
R1: $35.25
R2: $39.68
R3: $41.56


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[fxstrategist]

Gbpusd

The GBPUSD rallies to the 1.4400 level, the zone is acting as a resistance, price may try to bounce to the downside and go back to its bearish longer-term trend.

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

BOJ could surprise the markets by applying negative interest rate

USDJPY could spike to 121.40 following BOJ's decision to lower the interest rate to -0.1%, after it has kept it unchanged at 0.1% since Dec. 19, 2008.

BOJ said that the negative interest rate will work with the unchanged monetary base expansion pace by 80 trillion yen annually for achieving the price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time. enhance

BOJ said that it will introduce a multiple-tier system which some central banks in Europe have put in place adopting a three-tier system divided into a positive interest rate, a zero interest rate and a negative interest rate, respectively.

BOJ could surprise the markets by today decision to apply negative interest rate driving USDJPY to extend its rebound from 115.96 to 121.40 which is the highest reached level since last Dec. 12, before retreating again to 119.30 area in a normal volatile reaction to the decision.

The decision came after the release of Japan National CPI ex fresh foods which is the favorite gauge of inflation to BOJ. This figure came as expected and as the same as November rising by only 0.1% in December but Jan Tokyo CPI ex fresh foods which can be a clue to the next figure of Japan declined yearly by 0.1%, after rising by 0.6% in December.

USDJPY daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is reading now 116.36 in its sixth day of being below the trading rate, after rebound extension to 118.86 last Friday.

USDJPY daily RSI is referring now to existence in the neutral region reading now 60.123, while its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the neutral region but close to the overbought area above 80 reading 77.361, while its signal line is actually now in the overbought area reading now 81.524.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 120.34, Daily SMA100 @ 120.59 and Daily SMA200 @ 121.46

S&R:

S1: 117.64
S2: 116.45
S3: 115.96
R1: 121.40
R2: 123.74
R3: 124.61


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24

 

[Walid Salah Eldin]

The gold set back to $1115 per ounce on the risk appetite improving

With the risk appetite improving, The gold pared more gains to be traded now near $1115 per ounce, after reaching $1127.80 following the Fed's outcome which has been the highest reached level since last Nov. 3.

The gold could gather momentum, before the FOMC meeting, after getting over its daily SMA100 following surpassing $1112.75 which capped it on last Nov. 4.

$1071.22 could help the gold previously to bounce up again above its daily SMA50 forming a floor at $1057.98 which drove the gold to start being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) for 20 consecutive days reading today $1099.42.

XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in its neutral area reading 60.237, while its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the neutral region reading 70.549, while its signal line is still in the overbought area above 80 reading 81.315.


Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1080.41, Daily SMA100 @ $1105.73 and Daily SMA200 @ $1131.49

S&R:

S1: $1071.22
S2: $1057.98
S3: $1046.08
R1: $1127.80
R2: $1138.05
R3: $1149.84


Have a good day

Walid Salah El din
Chief Tech Analyst of Trade-24