Virtuoso, a question, the mad as a bag of badgers spike on EUR/CHF...

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Pob,
I know the ways of folks in the big banks, I've been in a few,

So have Butch Cassidy and the Sun Dance Kid. It hardly makes them experts on inter-market analysis.

Of course I'm not in the SNB and perhaps the 200MA is their real big thing. But I'd bet against it.

"If there's one thing you can be certain of, it's that the SNB and BIS could not care less about the 200DMA."

So its not such a certainty then, maybe there is a gnome sat behind a desk staring at the moving averages.
 
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Pob,
I'm a bit 2 sheets to the wind right now but I'l ltry my best, basically, them, I know the ways of folks in the big banks, I've been in a few, and in my experience they could nt care less about MA's or many other tech indicators either. They barely know about them from one week to the next. (yes they may know the theory but they dont' care about it and it don't influence their reasoning, they've probably forgotten it exists).
Levels (horizontals) against the euro, gold and $ are what I suspect concern them.
But still whatever's on their minds, it don't affect my trading.
But actual price levels, yes. I think they pay attention to that. Because they are numbers. And those make sense to their way of thinking.
Just my experience.
I'd never really paid that much attn to this its just stuff inmy head, just back of my mind type stuff, cos it don't matter at all to my trading, but when I read Virt0's post, this all clicked in my head and made me try to imagine the board of a big bank or a central bank eg the SNB;s head of currency manipulation dept scrutinising the 200MA as if there is a holy grail within that will save their currency, like if they just try to buck the 200MA they will have fooled and beaten the market and strengthened their currency.mission fulfilled.
That picture just don't convince me.
Thats why I gave the rep.
Of course I'm not in the SNB and perhaps the 200MA is their real big thing. But I'd bet against it.

Just one final point. The SNB are attempting to weaken the swiss franc NOT strengthen it. Another of the protagonists of this thread seems to be under the same impression.
 
Basically the timing of the intervention is not linked to any indicator or even necessarily an exact level, but it is done when liquidity providing ECB LTRO's (longer term refinancing operations) are alloted. The next LTRO is on 16 December. So if everyone wants to put 16 December in their diaries feel free ;)

If you want to learn how and why central banks intervene you will need a book on the subject! This one is a real humdinger Amazon.co.uk: central banks

I find this interesting but your link throws up a list of books - can you tell me which one is the one you think most relevant ?
 
Just one final point. The SNB are attempting to weaken the swiss franc NOT strengthen it. Another of the protagonists of this thread seems to be under the same impression.

Thanks, I really don't have any thoughts on what they're trying to do. If I gave that impression it was for illustration only.
 
Okay, I will try posting the link again;

Ashraf Laidi - Incisive Global Markets Analysis

Also a link to a book by Ashraf Laidi:

Amazon.com: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis: How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets (Wiley Trading) (9780470226230): Ashraf Laïdi: Books

Its well worth the price.

"The intended readership comprises those requiring a comprehensive breakdown of the inter-market forces driving foreign exchange rates. Anyone wishing to learn how to anticipate changes in central bank policies and their market consequences will find value in the chapters about yield curves and the federal Reserve. In addition to those trading currencies for themselves, a bank, or a corporate treasury, traders of interest rate and equity indexes may also benefit from the unified approach in the book. Economists, students, and market reporters seeking a comprehensive analysis of the real-life inter-relationships between currencies, equities, interest rates and commodities will find here a unique analysis of tried and tested market patterns."

For anyone new to this site and serious about trading I would recommend starting with threads by TraderDante and The Bramble. There you will find plenty of basic information about support/resistance, net order flow etc. After reading and understanding that and the above it is much easier to pick out the drivel written on this forum and it will save you time and money in the process. Of course there are more excellent posters who share quality info on this site as you will then see.
 
I find this interesting but your link throws up a list of books - can you tell me which one is the one you think most relevant ?
Sorry, didn't realise it brought up a list, I meant the first one. As far as a definitive text on the operations of central banks, I'm not aware there is one, the literature is quite thin on the ground.
 
Thanks, I really don't have any thoughts on what they're trying to do. If I gave that impression it was for illustration only.

LOL, in that case do you mind me asking why you saw fit to criticize one of my posts on the subject?
 
LOL, in that case do you mind me asking why you saw fit to criticize one of my posts on the subject?


Sorry Pob, didn't realise I had, not aware of it.
You asked why I gave rep, I replied...
You seem to give another view point a greater benefit of the doubt than I do, thats fine.

But despite acknowledging you know little about the inner working of central banks you consider info given in to you good faith to your question be on the level of butch cassidy's banking knowledge. Why ask in the first place.......?

I doubt if either point of view have any real benefit or relevance to our daily trading, certainly not to mine.
You can follow the 200MA to your hearts desire, it may or may not work whatever the gnomes are or aren't doing.

The only view I have on currency values is there is a general race to the bottom. But thats a political economic view, and not really trading related.
 
Sorry Pob, didn't realise I had, not aware of it.
You asked why I gave rep, I replied...
You seem to give another view point a greater benefit of the doubt than I do, thats fine.

But despite acknowledging you know little about the inner working of central banks you consider info given in to you good faith to your question be on the level of butch cassidy's banking knowledge. Why ask in the first place.......?

I doubt if either point of view have any real benefit or relevance to our daily trading, certainly not to mine.
You can follow the 200MA to your hearts desire, it may or may not work whatever the gnomes are or aren't doing.

The only view I have on currency values is there is a general race to the bottom. But thats a political economic view, and not really trading related.

I asked because I posted a message containing a link to a free website in the hope of helping other traders. I never mentioned personally using 200 DMA for anything and whether I do is beside the point. Despite this a critical reply was posted and repped by yourself. Some of my other posting were made to asses whether the people involved new their stuff or not. I soon got my answer. The reference to cowboys should give you a clue.
 
I asked because I posted a message containing a link to a free website in the hope of helping other traders. I never mentioned personally using 200 DMA for anything and whether I do is beside the point. Despite this a critical reply was posted and repped by yourself. Some of my other posting were made to asses whether the people involved new their stuff or not. I soon got my answer. The reference to cowboys should give you a clue.

Lighten up Pob, you being a bit sensitive!
I repped someone saying the SNP are very unlikely to care about the 200ma.
Thats it. I just happen to agree that the SNP couldn't care less about the 200 MA. Take that or leave it.
Strewth mate!!! That response itself was not even critical to you but to some article you hadn't written.

I can't believe I'm justifying giving a rep.
 
Constructive criticism from someone objectively trying to be of assistance I am happy with but well, when it happens when I am trying my best to help others it gets up my nose a bit.
 
Constructive criticism from someone objectively trying to be of assistance I am happy with but well, when it happens when I am trying my best to help others it gets up my nose a bit.

Same here.
I wonder why I bother
time to cut my losses on this one :|
 
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I asked because I posted a message containing a link to a free website in the hope of helping other traders. I never mentioned personally using 200 DMA for anything and whether I do is beside the point. Despite this a critical reply was posted and repped by yourself. Some of my other posting were made to asses whether the people involved new their stuff or not. I soon got my answer. The reference to cowboys should give you a clue.
Stop being a dick.

I'm going to to hold off entering a trade on this until I either have a definite indication of an intervention or until I believe a correlated event will occur. If MartinGhoul wants to go long now, fine I can see that point of view. I'm sure both he and I will be profitable at the end of the year.

If you want to listen to a guy that recommends using a moving average to time a central bank intervention, good luck! I don't need to write you an essay justifying why I think that, nor do I have any obligation to write anything about ECB policy. Thanks for the 'assessment' but thankfully we're not at school anymore so I'll skip this exam if it's all the same to you.
 
Stop being a dick.

I'm going to to hold off entering a trade on this until I either have a definite indication of an intervention or until I believe a correlated event will occur. If MartinGhoul wants to go long now, fine I can see that point of view. I'm sure both he and I will be profitable at the end of the year.

If you want to listen to a guy that recommends using a moving average to time a central bank intervention, good luck! I don't need to write you an essay justifying why I think that, nor do I have any obligation to write anything about ECB policy. Thanks for the 'assessment' but thankfully we're not at school anymore so I'll skip this exam if it's all the same to you.

I will treat the first part of your post with the contempt that it deserves.

You freely admit that your "assessment" of the SNB intervention was incorrect.

The last paragraph of your post is complete fiction.
 
The only view I have on currency values is there is a general race to the bottom. But thats a political economic view, and not really trading related.[/QUOTE]

Totally agree on point one, but on point two just think about it for a while...;)
 
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I will treat the first part of your post with the contempt that it deserves.

You freely admit that your "assessment" of the SNB intervention was incorrect.

The last paragraph of your post is complete fiction.
I do not freely admit my assessment was incorrect, I am freely admitting that I respect MarthinGhoul's opinion because he clearly knows his stuff. That's what it comes down to, 'opinion', because unless you happen to be in the SNB's committee room when they're making the decision then you don't have any 'facts'.

Go back to the first post in this thread, Black Swan asked me if and how I played it, and I answered him, and then went on to give some further reasoning based on my opinions. I couldn't give two ****s if you think that's not good enough, and I don't have to prove myself to you!
 
Stop being a dick.

I'm going to to hold off entering a trade on this until I either have a definite indication of an intervention or until I believe a correlated event will occur. If MartinGhoul wants to go long now, fine I can see that point of view. I'm sure both he and I will be profitable at the end of the year.

If you want to listen to a guy that recommends using a moving average to time a central bank intervention, good luck! I don't need to write you an essay justifying why I think that, nor do I have any obligation to write anything about ECB policy. Thanks for the 'assessment' but thankfully we're not at school anymore so I'll skip this exam if it's all the same to you.

V20, I thought you'd kinda 'moved on' from this kind of attack...play up bud eh?, there's a gent :)
 
Lighten up Pob, you being a bit sensitive!
I repped someone saying the SNP are very unlikely to care about the 200ma.
Thats it. I just happen to agree that the SNP couldn't care less about the 200 MA. Take that or leave it.
Strewth mate!!! That response itself was not even critical to you but to some article you hadn't written.

I can't believe I'm justifying giving a rep.

My apologies Glyder, you have a point here, strewth is about right LOL. I think SNP is the Scottish National party and i may have used the same abbreviation:)
 
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