Virtuoso, a question, the mad as a bag of badgers spike on EUR/CHF...

  • Thread starter Black Swan
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GammaJammer said:
it was fairly well telegraphed this time, and tbh thats why all that dough they spent has basically had naff all effect. ECB long dated liquidity tender had co-incided with the previous two interventions and was exactly the same again. Plus they didn't seem to do much in size terms. Only difference seemed to be a slight shift upwards in percentage of usdchf as opposed to eurchf in the mix, and how many banks they called.....
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Extremely well telegraphed, it was all over Reuters at about 9.30am if I remember rightly.

I heard a whisper that there's another similar situation in December that would be a likely candidate for an intervention, obviously depending on where price is at the time.
 
Black Swan said:
Sorry bud, sarcasm doesn't translate too well on forums...Virtuoso is our own 'Jesse Livermore' he's kinda passed charts and stuff, he does the big hunting 'stuff'.

He's 'in', and as such was probably in Geneva at the time, chewing the fat and drinking the warm blood of a just killed albino dwarf calf, whilst attending a bizarre Bildeberger ritual in Geneva (with Tony Blair, Geroge Bush and Rupert Murdoch by his side)...

Suddenly Hank Paulson lifed the hood off his robes during the incantation, he violently spat out his cognac, whilst choking on his Ortalan he proceeded to tap his nose indicating Soros had just phoned...

Mandleson was busily shining George Osborne's shoes after 'polishing off' Nat Roschild in a darkened corner, he could be heard muttering; "Patience Mandy, climb the ladder..." ...
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You made me laugh out loud there!
 
virtuos0 said:
Extremely well telegraphed, it was all over Reuters at about 9.30am if I remember rightly.

I heard a whisper that there's another similar situation in December that would be a likely candidate for an intervention, obviously depending on where price is at the time.
Click to expand...

Get it said then...
 
virtuos0 said:
Extremely well telegraphed, it was all over Reuters at about 9.30am if I remember rightly.

I heard a whisper that there's another similar situation in December that would be a likely candidate for an intervention, obviously depending on where price is at the time.
Click to expand...

Nah a few people were talking about it in advance (i.e. a few days in advance).
 
GammaJammer said:
I post stuff like that here when I have time, and also when it's appropriate to do so. I'm not blue horseshoe dude. ;)
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We love you all the same ;)

Your posts get hidden away in the depths for some reason. Remember last time lol. I still sh1tted out the second time too.

Incidentally, I saw a J16 video where he came across the spike and was chatting caper about lol.
 
Sorry. James16 from forex factory was looking at a eur/chf chart on a video and was talking about the spike. Can't remember what exactly he was saying about it but it was horsesh1t. He trades on PA though so he still made a few guineas out of it.

Wasn't really an interesting addition to the conversation was it lol.
 
I've been buying EURCHF at 1.5090 the past few days, hoping for the intervention. To me, it was a limited downside trade, so it's good risk/reward. It happened and it made me happy. I am, however, somewhat confused about what the SNB does now, given that CHF TWI is almost back to the pre-intervention levels. I might go long EURCHF again, hoping they're not happy about the situation.
 
True enough Paul, but the way eurchf is trading you don't have to be Soros to job it a bit in smalls with relatively benign risk / reward.
 
Black Swan said:
Sorry bud, sarcasm doesn't translate too well on forums...Virtuoso is our own 'Jesse Livermore' he's kinda passed charts and stuff, he does the big hunting 'stuff'.

He's 'in', and as such was probably in Geneva at the time, chewing the fat and drinking the warm blood of a just killed albino dwarf calf, whilst attending a bizarre Bildeberger ritual in Geneva (with Tony Blair, Geroge Bush and Rupert Murdoch by his side)...

Suddenly Hank Paulson lifed the hood off his robes during the incantation, he violently spat out his cognac, whilst choking on his Ortalan he proceeded to tap his nose indicating Soros had just phoned...

Mandleson was busily shining George Osborne's shoes after 'polishing off' Nat Roschild in a darkened corner, he could be heard muttering; "Patience Mandy, climb the ladder..." ...
Click to expand...


Steady Eddie, this is a family forum! :LOL:

Well talking of Fundies vs über-technical people, I just read this on a trader's blog (unrelated to T2W):

"The GBP/USD, which found support near a key Fibonacci level (38.2% retracement of the March low to the 2009 high) was buoyed by a severly oversold daily RSI."

GBP/USD buoyed by an RSI? Clever trick if you can do it!
Maybe I should revisit RSIs after all!

:LOL:
 
montmorencyt2w said:
:LOL:

Er, yeh but, no but, yeh but, for we mere retail minor players, isn't it a sort of surrogate for a level they are prepared to defend?

I mean they might defend absolute levels as well on occasions, but depending on market conditions, their view might adjust and the MA is something for us to go on. Perhaps?

Must admit I was using a couple of MAs on that occasion to keep hold of what was more like "normal". (Not 200 as it happens, but one was not far off that).
Click to expand...

A central bank will not use MA's. They will have certain levels they wish to defend though. In Thailand, there's a lot of intervention on the USD/THB and it has cost them a lot of money. The key levels here are usually those levels where exporters feel a lot of pain. Key levels could also be related to US dollar debt, if they have a lot of dollar debt, they'll want their currency to stay strong against the dollar so they can repay it. There's all kinds of reasons but most will be well covered in their local press. Most countries have an English language newspaper. Here there's The Nation and The Bangkok Post. As a reader of them and someone that moves a reasonable amount of currency around (not trading though), I feel pretty tuned into the exchange rates. I just don't trade currencies though.

If you regularly trade the currencies/shares of any foreign country - it's got to be worth just reading their major English language newspapers once a day to get a feel for what's going on there.
 
"The GBP/USD, which found support near a key Fibonacci level (38.2% retracement of the March low to the 2009 high) was buoyed by a severly oversold daily RSI."

Too funny, which blog is this? I could do with a larf today.
 
Trader333 said:
Be careful because it is not possible to ultimately buck the market.


Paul
Click to expand...
Me? Should I be careful? Why?

It's not me trying to buck the mkt, it's the SNB. They might be able to do it or they might not. I just expect them to keep trying, which means risk/reward-wise, I like the trade.

If I had a HUGE position, I'd buy some 1.4950 or 1.49 puts, as they were cheap (although not sure they are now).
 
For the record, I just went long EURCHF again at 1.5088. Lather, rinse, repeat. Hope the SNB lives by this motto, like I do.
 
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