evergreen1
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Well 4211 (32% retracement of move from 4113 to 4298) has now become serious support.
Usd/jpy safe pair
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evergreen1
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The Federal Reserve said most of its 12 regional banks detected a slower pace of economic decline in June and July, further signs the worst U.S. downturn in at least five decades is closer to an end.
“Economic activity continued to be weak” in June and July, the Fed said today in its Beige Book business survey, published two weeks before officials meet to set monetary policy. San Francisco, the district with the biggest economy, and three others “pointed to signs of stabilization,” while Chicago and St. Louis showed a “moderating” pace of decline.
“Economic activity continued to be weak” in June and July, the Fed said today in its Beige Book business survey, published two weeks before officials meet to set monetary policy. San Francisco, the district with the biggest economy, and three others “pointed to signs of stabilization,” while Chicago and St. Louis showed a “moderating” pace of decline.
evergreen1
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GammaJammer
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Surprised building material / garden supply stores numbers are down. Those places traditionally do well in a sharp economic downturn (and, counterintuitively, particularly one accompanied or even caused by a sharp slowdown in housing) as people stay at home and renovate rather than moving house.
evergreen1
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USD\JPY pair
USD\JPY pair.
Support level is close to 95.0 (round number - strong support) and Resistance is built from three touches of price. Support level is extremely strong as it was tested for 7 times and very respected by price. We should expect price to touch Resistance again, bounce and continue its way down, breaking the Support level. This pattern is 50 pips in size and this is the projected target we would expect price to reach. Nevertheless, anything is possible and we would take trades only when this pattern is confirmed - when price breaks Support level.
USD\JPY pair.
Support level is close to 95.0 (round number - strong support) and Resistance is built from three touches of price. Support level is extremely strong as it was tested for 7 times and very respected by price. We should expect price to touch Resistance again, bounce and continue its way down, breaking the Support level. This pattern is 50 pips in size and this is the projected target we would expect price to reach. Nevertheless, anything is possible and we would take trades only when this pattern is confirmed - when price breaks Support level.
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evergreen1
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The yen and the dollar fell, stock futures rose and metals led commodities higher on speculation a U.S. government report will show the recession in the world’s biggest economy eased in the second quarter.
The yen declined against all 16 most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg as of 11:37 a.m. in London, while the dollar weakened compared with 14 peers. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures advanced for a second day. Copper rose to the highest level since October, while nickel and zinc climbed to post-September records.
The Commerce Department may say the U.S. economy shrank at an annual 1.5 percent rate in the second quarter, compared with a 5.5 percent contraction in the prior three months, according to the median forecast of 78 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The U.S. economy has “stepped away from the precipice,” President Barack Obama said yesterday.
“A good GDP number could boost risk assets again,” Werner Eppacher, head of foreign exchange in Frankfurt at DWS Investment GmbH, which oversees about 230 billion euros ($326 billion), said today in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It’s a lot more important what market participants assume for the next quarters.”
The dollar and the yen dropped most against the Swedish krona and the New Zealand dollar as investors sought higher yields. Treasuries fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note rising 2 basis points to 3.63 percent.
The yen declined against all 16 most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg as of 11:37 a.m. in London, while the dollar weakened compared with 14 peers. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures advanced for a second day. Copper rose to the highest level since October, while nickel and zinc climbed to post-September records.
The Commerce Department may say the U.S. economy shrank at an annual 1.5 percent rate in the second quarter, compared with a 5.5 percent contraction in the prior three months, according to the median forecast of 78 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The U.S. economy has “stepped away from the precipice,” President Barack Obama said yesterday.
“A good GDP number could boost risk assets again,” Werner Eppacher, head of foreign exchange in Frankfurt at DWS Investment GmbH, which oversees about 230 billion euros ($326 billion), said today in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It’s a lot more important what market participants assume for the next quarters.”
The dollar and the yen dropped most against the Swedish krona and the New Zealand dollar as investors sought higher yields. Treasuries fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note rising 2 basis points to 3.63 percent.
evergreen1
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The U.S. economy shrank at a slower pace in the second quarter, a sign that the worst recession since the Great Depression may be winding down.
Gross domestic product contracted at a less-than-projected 1 percent annual rate after shrinking 6.4 percent in the prior three months, the most in 27 years, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Revisions showed the economic downturn last year was even deeper than previously estimated.
Profits at companies from Caterpillar Inc. to Dow Chemical Co. signal the slump is abating as government efforts to revive lending and President Barack Obama’s stimulus gain traction. At the same time, today’s report showed that consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, shrank more than twice as much as forecast last quarter; analysts anticipate it will take months to recover as job losses mount.
Gross domestic product contracted at a less-than-projected 1 percent annual rate after shrinking 6.4 percent in the prior three months, the most in 27 years, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Revisions showed the economic downturn last year was even deeper than previously estimated.
Profits at companies from Caterpillar Inc. to Dow Chemical Co. signal the slump is abating as government efforts to revive lending and President Barack Obama’s stimulus gain traction. At the same time, today’s report showed that consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, shrank more than twice as much as forecast last quarter; analysts anticipate it will take months to recover as job losses mount.
evergreen1
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The dollar was unable to make any headway in early Europe on Thursday and was generally trapped within narrow ranges during the day as markets struggled for direction.
There was a seasonally-adjusted decline in German unemployment for July, although the data was distorted by a change in the calculation method and the underlying figures reported an increase in unemployment. There was a further recovery in industrial and consumer confidence according to the latest Euro-zone survey evidence which will help maintain expectations of a slow improvement in the economy.
The IMF stated in comments on Thursday that the Euro was overvalued by around 15% and this put some near-term downward pressure on the currency, although the impact was transitory.
Initial US jobless claims increased to 584,000 in the latest week from a revised 559,000 the previous week as the distortions caused by the auto sector persisted. The impact should tend to put some upward pressure on claims in the near term as seasonal adjustment will expect workers to return. The continuing claims data was lower than expected which provided some relief.
The GDP data will be watched closely on Friday and will have an important impact on risk appetite. Confidence will weaken significantly if there is a larger than expected contraction for the second quarter while a smaller decline would provide an important lift to confidence.
The Euro again found support near the 1.40 level against the dollar following the IMF comments and rebounded to the 1.4070 level as Wall Street advanced.
There was a seasonally-adjusted decline in German unemployment for July, although the data was distorted by a change in the calculation method and the underlying figures reported an increase in unemployment. There was a further recovery in industrial and consumer confidence according to the latest Euro-zone survey evidence which will help maintain expectations of a slow improvement in the economy.
The IMF stated in comments on Thursday that the Euro was overvalued by around 15% and this put some near-term downward pressure on the currency, although the impact was transitory.
Initial US jobless claims increased to 584,000 in the latest week from a revised 559,000 the previous week as the distortions caused by the auto sector persisted. The impact should tend to put some upward pressure on claims in the near term as seasonal adjustment will expect workers to return. The continuing claims data was lower than expected which provided some relief.
The GDP data will be watched closely on Friday and will have an important impact on risk appetite. Confidence will weaken significantly if there is a larger than expected contraction for the second quarter while a smaller decline would provide an important lift to confidence.
The Euro again found support near the 1.40 level against the dollar following the IMF comments and rebounded to the 1.4070 level as Wall Street advanced.
evergreen1
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Yen
In comments on Thursday, Bank of Japan member Noda remained cautious over the corporate financing outlook which will maintain expectations that the bank will retain a highly-expansionary monetary policy.
Chinese bank officials also pledged to maintain a loose monetary policy to help support the economy which underpinned risk appetite to some extent and the yen consolidated around the 95 level against the dollar in early Europe.
As confidence remained firmer, the dollar pushed to highs near 95.80 during the New York session as month-end flows into the yen also faded.
In comments on Thursday, Bank of Japan member Noda remained cautious over the corporate financing outlook which will maintain expectations that the bank will retain a highly-expansionary monetary policy.
Chinese bank officials also pledged to maintain a loose monetary policy to help support the economy which underpinned risk appetite to some extent and the yen consolidated around the 95 level against the dollar in early Europe.
As confidence remained firmer, the dollar pushed to highs near 95.80 during the New York session as month-end flows into the yen also faded.
evergreen1
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H4 graph
After retracing from level 1.4010 (“K” trend line) and rising above resistance level 1.4150 (the lower bound of “a-a+” sideways trend), the pair has jumped up quickly and found itself at a strong level of resistance accumulation 1.4300–1.4340. Therefore, a neutral trading corridor is established now between resistance 1.4340 and support 1.4150, within which a turning figure may be formed.
In case the pair rises above level 1.4340, it is supposed to reach level 1.4550. But according to technical picture at daily graph, this is unlikely to happen (see D1 forecast).
Otherwise, if the pair drops below support 1.4150, it will get down to support 1.3940 (the lower bound of “M-M+” daily sideways trend – “M” trend line).
I do not recommend trading in the range between levels 1.4300 and 1.4150, since there is a high probability of switching to a sideways trend (a trend-turning figure formation). I recommend selling under condition of drop below support 1.4150 with a target at 1.3940. Alternatively, you may carefully (driven by a clear signal only) buy above 1.4360 with a target at 1.4550 (however, this variant is less preferable because of lower probability).
use you own opinion during trading
After retracing from level 1.4010 (“K” trend line) and rising above resistance level 1.4150 (the lower bound of “a-a+” sideways trend), the pair has jumped up quickly and found itself at a strong level of resistance accumulation 1.4300–1.4340. Therefore, a neutral trading corridor is established now between resistance 1.4340 and support 1.4150, within which a turning figure may be formed.
In case the pair rises above level 1.4340, it is supposed to reach level 1.4550. But according to technical picture at daily graph, this is unlikely to happen (see D1 forecast).
Otherwise, if the pair drops below support 1.4150, it will get down to support 1.3940 (the lower bound of “M-M+” daily sideways trend – “M” trend line).
I do not recommend trading in the range between levels 1.4300 and 1.4150, since there is a high probability of switching to a sideways trend (a trend-turning figure formation). I recommend selling under condition of drop below support 1.4150 with a target at 1.3940. Alternatively, you may carefully (driven by a clear signal only) buy above 1.4360 with a target at 1.4550 (however, this variant is less preferable because of lower probability).
use you own opinion during trading
evergreen1
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Barclays today reported an 8 per cent rise in profits to £2.98 billion after a strong performance in its investment banking division.
The success at Britain's second largest lender offset a 61 per cent plunge in earnings from retail customers but the result was still below expectations.
Analysts had expected Barclays to announce interim profits of £3.5 billion, but the bank revealed that bad debts had jumped by 86 per cent to £4.56 billion while it recorded £3.5 billion in writedowns on credit losses.
Barclays, which unlike Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland chose not to use taxpayers' money to prop up its balance sheet, is nevertheless expected to reward bankers from its investment banking division with large bonuses after it achieved a 100 per cent rise in income for the first six months of the year.
The return of bankers’ bonuses is expected to provoke outrage so soon after the meltdown in the financial system, which has prompted the worst recession since the Second World War.
John McFall, the chairman of the influential Treasury Committee of MPs, told The Times that banks which doled out big bonuses were failing in their social responsibility.
“Bonuses coming back online with a bang so quickly while we are still in recession will just not be understood by the public. Banks have a social responsibility here and it seems that they are not living up to it. It was the banking crisis which sent the country into a tailspin in the first place.”
John Varley, chief executive of Barclays pledged this year that the bonus structure would be overhauled so that executives would have to take a bigger proportion of their payments in shares, and see payouts spread over several years.
Bonus payments by all banks could hit £4 billion this year, up from £3.3 billion last year, according to research from the Centre for Economic and Business Research, a think-tank.
Commenting on the "tumultuous events of the last two years," Mr Varley said it had been a "humbling experience". He said: "Our strategy has helped us weather the crisis and we want our employees, customers and shareholders alike to continue to benefit from it over time."
Barclays is the first of Britain's big banks to report this week. HSBC is set to release its interim figures later today.
On Wednesday, Lloyds, which is 43 per cent owned by the taxpayer, is expected to report a £5.1 billion loss compared to a £2.8 billion profit in the first half of last year before it rescued HBOS in a deal brokered by Gordon Brown.
On Friday, Royal Bank of Scotland is tipped to report first-half pre-tax profits of £1.2 billion after a record loss of £24 billion in 2008.
The success at Britain's second largest lender offset a 61 per cent plunge in earnings from retail customers but the result was still below expectations.
Analysts had expected Barclays to announce interim profits of £3.5 billion, but the bank revealed that bad debts had jumped by 86 per cent to £4.56 billion while it recorded £3.5 billion in writedowns on credit losses.
Barclays, which unlike Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland chose not to use taxpayers' money to prop up its balance sheet, is nevertheless expected to reward bankers from its investment banking division with large bonuses after it achieved a 100 per cent rise in income for the first six months of the year.
The return of bankers’ bonuses is expected to provoke outrage so soon after the meltdown in the financial system, which has prompted the worst recession since the Second World War.
John McFall, the chairman of the influential Treasury Committee of MPs, told The Times that banks which doled out big bonuses were failing in their social responsibility.
“Bonuses coming back online with a bang so quickly while we are still in recession will just not be understood by the public. Banks have a social responsibility here and it seems that they are not living up to it. It was the banking crisis which sent the country into a tailspin in the first place.”
John Varley, chief executive of Barclays pledged this year that the bonus structure would be overhauled so that executives would have to take a bigger proportion of their payments in shares, and see payouts spread over several years.
Bonus payments by all banks could hit £4 billion this year, up from £3.3 billion last year, according to research from the Centre for Economic and Business Research, a think-tank.
Commenting on the "tumultuous events of the last two years," Mr Varley said it had been a "humbling experience". He said: "Our strategy has helped us weather the crisis and we want our employees, customers and shareholders alike to continue to benefit from it over time."
Barclays is the first of Britain's big banks to report this week. HSBC is set to release its interim figures later today.
On Wednesday, Lloyds, which is 43 per cent owned by the taxpayer, is expected to report a £5.1 billion loss compared to a £2.8 billion profit in the first half of last year before it rescued HBOS in a deal brokered by Gordon Brown.
On Friday, Royal Bank of Scotland is tipped to report first-half pre-tax profits of £1.2 billion after a record loss of £24 billion in 2008.
evergreen1
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UK house prices rise 1.1% as buyers return
The housing market showed further tentative signs of stabilising today with prices rising by more than 1 per cent during April, government figures showed.
A report from the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) said the average cost of a home in the UK jumped by 1.1 per cent during the month, while the annual rate at which prices are declining eased to 13 per cent, down from 13.6 per cent in March.
The average house prices in the UK is now £189,215.
The DCLG report added to other positive reports on the UK housing market, with figures published yesterday showing that the pace of house price falls slowed in May while home sales picked up.
About 6 per cent of estate agents across the UK said that property values had risen in May, while 42 per cent said that prices fell, according to figures from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).
Halifax recently reported that house prices rose by 2.6 per cent last month while Nationwide said house prices increased 1.2 per cent month-on-month in May.
But analysts warned against reading too much into the new figures. “We remain sceptical that house prices have bottomed out,” Howard Archer, an analyst at IHS Global Insight, said. “Significantly, it is not uncommon for there to be months of rising prices when house prices are still trending down.”
Mr Archer predicted that house prices will fall by a further 10 per cent to trough around mid-2010.
The housing market showed further tentative signs of stabilising today with prices rising by more than 1 per cent during April, government figures showed.
A report from the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) said the average cost of a home in the UK jumped by 1.1 per cent during the month, while the annual rate at which prices are declining eased to 13 per cent, down from 13.6 per cent in March.
The average house prices in the UK is now £189,215.
The DCLG report added to other positive reports on the UK housing market, with figures published yesterday showing that the pace of house price falls slowed in May while home sales picked up.
About 6 per cent of estate agents across the UK said that property values had risen in May, while 42 per cent said that prices fell, according to figures from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).
Halifax recently reported that house prices rose by 2.6 per cent last month while Nationwide said house prices increased 1.2 per cent month-on-month in May.
But analysts warned against reading too much into the new figures. “We remain sceptical that house prices have bottomed out,” Howard Archer, an analyst at IHS Global Insight, said. “Significantly, it is not uncommon for there to be months of rising prices when house prices are still trending down.”
Mr Archer predicted that house prices will fall by a further 10 per cent to trough around mid-2010.
