UK House price charts?

scose-no-doubt · Aug 17, 2011

I still haven't had to eat my hat.

Trust PWC to help out a brother in arms. Lovely stuff.

Atilla · Aug 18, 2011

esscubed said:
Only a few weeks ago analysts from PWC announced they think real house prices (taking into acct inflation) may not have hit 2007 levels by as late as 2020...

@Attilla - your reasoning all includes a sustained economic recovery, but this crisis has been global and it changes the rules massively as we cannot rely on trade in other parts of the world to allow us to claw back economic growth, we are all struggling simultaneously.

And regards London and SE feeling upbeat, those areas have historically a) had higher growth rates than the rest of the country (less well off areas such as the north east and scotland tend to lag anywhere between 5 and 15 years before they see similar market movement) and b) they are not enough to turn the figure for the UK as a whole positive on their own.

London house prices in particular are a terrible indicator of economic/housing market recovery, it always experiences the largest price increases and decreases, including in the last year having nearly 10% price increases when many other parts of the country are still in decline. This has been particularly skewed by the temporary stamp duty freeze on homes up to £1m that ended in Dec 2010.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/12/high-street-spending-housing-market

the full report from PWC
http://www.pwc.co.uk/eng/publications/research_archive_uk_economic_outlook.html

I think you may have lost another £200 bet here...

Hi guys,

Just wanted to point out to all the doomsters we've been here before...

1974 - petrol oil price hike by the ME countries and establishment of cartel caused massive inflation followed by stagflation.
1979 - winter of discontent etc., unemployment hits 3m+
1980s - Maggie gets elected and further deepens the depression by cutting subsidies etc and sells NIndustries... Unemployment further goes past 3m+ touching 25% + in some areas
1984+ export led recovery kicked in.

So to those of you who thinks this period is exceptional - I beg to defer we had it worse.

The only differences I can see is pressure on wages at the moment so not much chance of long strikes or wage inflation. However, riots on streets and further strikes and walk outs quite possible...

The oil shock pretty much affected every other country too. Response was governments tried to spend their way out using Keynesian economics and

This may well be the trough of the long term cycle we are in... One that comes every 40 years or so...

esscubed · Aug 18, 2011

In the 70s and 80s the average house price was up to 3 times annual income. In the last ten years it has been closer to 9 times income. Every crisis is different... so no telling how it pans out IMO

scose-no-doubt · Aug 18, 2011

esscubed is that quote from Mort?

esscubed · Aug 19, 2011

scose-no-doubt said:
esscubed is that quote from Mort?

Quite possibly, its just been a favourite idea/quote from the Discworld for years! I can't remember which one I read it in, but I often use it...

Atilla · Aug 26, 2011

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/House-prices-rise-July-Land-reuters_molt-1872285293.html?x=0

counter_violent · Aug 26, 2011

Atilla said:
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/House-prices-rise-July-Land-reuters_molt-1872285293.html?x=0

More irrelevant nonsense. If the west does double dip as appears likely then prop will crash and banks will fail...it won't be like the first time around where there was at least some fat in the market. This time, a smaller percentage drop in prices will actually do a lot more damage.

Brought to you from the school of CVeconomics

Atilla · Aug 26, 2011

counter_violent said:
More irrelevant nonsense. If the west does double dip as appears likely then prop will crash and banks will fail...it won't be like the first time around where there was at least some fat in the market. This time, a smaller percentage drop in prices will actually do a lot more damage.

Brought to you from the school of CVeconomics

CV what do you with your spare change?

In fact anybody and everybody - any investment ideas? We talking shares, bonds, buy franchise what? Foreign currency, gold anything? Antiques, wine, stamps???

What do you do with your spare change?

esscubed · Aug 27, 2011

Atilla said:
What do you do with your spare change?

I like to swing gamble on the stockmarket, favourites at the moment include banking and mining stocks and HMV...

Atilla · Sep 1, 2011

Atilla · Oct 3, 2011

Atilla said:
Here are the links that should take us to end of the year... I reckon any rises that come in will be next year.

December 2011 - Nationwide House Price Index

November 2011 - Nationwide House Price Index

October 2011 - Nationwide House Price Index

September 2011 - Nationwide House Price Index Available now...

August 2011 - Nationwide House Price Index Available now...

July 2011 - Nationwide House Price Index

June 2011 - Nationwide House Price Index

== 2nd Bet Start ==

May 2011 - Nationwide House Price Index

Apr 2011 - Nationwide House Price Index

Mar 2011 - Nationwide House Price Index

Feb 2011 - Nationwide House Price Index

Jan 2011 - Nationwide House Price Index

Dec 2010 - Nationwide House Price Index

Nov 2010 - Nationwide House Price Index

Oct 2010 - Nationwide House Price Index

Sep 2010 - Nationwide House Price Index

Aug 2010 - Nationwide House Price Index

July 2010 - Nationwide House Price Index

June 2010 - Nationwide House Price Index

.

Atilla · Nov 1, 2011

Atilla · Nov 29, 2011

November 2011 - Nationwide House Price Index - Availalble now - yet another surprise for the books

new_trader · Nov 30, 2011

Which house price index should I use? - Telegraph

Mr Ayre said: "[Nationwide's data] came just a day after figures from the Land Registry showed that prices are falling across the UK – and that is a far more accurate reflection of where the market is at."

scose-no-doubt · Nov 30, 2011

I've been saying for ages that nationwide's figures are not objective.

Atilla · Nov 30, 2011

scose-no-doubt said:
I've been saying for ages that nationwide's figures are not objective.

Agree, I prefer the Land Registry quarterly release which has more accurate and regional information too.

But for the bet Nationwide's index was picked and that is what is tracked. I'd be only too happy to see other indeces but don't mean much to be honest. Great variations on region and localities.

Also - the question stands on - any investment ideas?

What does one invest in during these periods of market turmoil?
What do you do with your spare change?

Atilla · Nov 30, 2011

Interesting statistics here for anyone who is interested.

House price news, information and discussion - HousePriceCrash.co.uk

If you look towards the bottom predicted house price crash numbers are anything from 15% - 50%. Ofcourse we all know this has not materialised and people who have made them must look a fool (bleeding experts

).

We haven't had anything like this at all. In fact London and South West saw annual increases of 9% last year in some areas.

So the figures are pretty dismal but house prices are holding their ground or rising depending on area. The many falls are also in the low single figures.

Admittedly inflation is eroding wealth but rents have gone up considerably. Anyone who doesn't want to sell can let and this is what has been happening. As well as preserving wealth as an asset it can generate income.

Demand for property is also likely to rise seasonally over the summer period and more so with the Olympics and new government schemes.

Good property for sale is very hard to come by. People are staying put.

Where else do people invest their money in?
- shares
- bonds
- commodities
- long cruise holidays ???

Personally I am optimistic and still see house purchase as one of the best investments to maintaining wealth in these turbulant times.

Yours trully

scose-no-doubt · Dec 1, 2011

Atilla said:
Personally I am optimistic and still see house purchase as one of the best investments to maintaining wealth in these turbulant times.

Not too sure about that. I think bonds if you know what you're doing. For the layman it has to be property though.

Atilla · Dec 1, 2011

PHP:

scose-no-doubt said:
Not too sure about that. I think bonds if you know what you're doing. For the layman it has to be property though.

True perhaps short term.

But long term you have risk and also will be locked into low yield fixed income assets.

scose-no-doubt · Dec 5, 2011

Anyone just see my street on Channel 4? Reppin' it blad - man are movin' 'ard.

UK House price charts?

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