trendie
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w/c May-23 2005: DOW Stop and Reverse strategy
I need a real numbers break from the theory being espoused.
75-pt Stop and Reverse. Second trade 45-pt Stop and Reverse on 75-pt loss.
Trend-Line-Break override.
Double-Top / Double-Bottom override.
Always in.
2 trades. First one Profit-Target of 75-pts. (eventually a function of ATR).
PS: I also want to experiment with the First-Strike/Second-Strike method of exiting.
Random entry. 10-pt increments.
May-23: enter a SHORT on open. (will take price after 5-mins, as I dont have CMC prices.)
14:35: SHORT at 10,486. SL=10,560. Risk=2 x 75.
20:15: Dow spikes 10,560. RESULT= - 150.
20:15: LONG at 10,560. SL=10,515. Risk=2 x 45.
I need a real numbers break from the theory being espoused.
75-pt Stop and Reverse. Second trade 45-pt Stop and Reverse on 75-pt loss.
Trend-Line-Break override.
Double-Top / Double-Bottom override.
Always in.
2 trades. First one Profit-Target of 75-pts. (eventually a function of ATR).
PS: I also want to experiment with the First-Strike/Second-Strike method of exiting.
Random entry. 10-pt increments.
May-23: enter a SHORT on open. (will take price after 5-mins, as I dont have CMC prices.)
14:35: SHORT at 10,486. SL=10,560. Risk=2 x 75.
20:15: Dow spikes 10,560. RESULT= - 150.
20:15: LONG at 10,560. SL=10,515. Risk=2 x 45.
trendie
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May 25 2005 - Dow Stop and Reverse
carried over: Cumulative= - 240.
(SHORT at 10,515. SL=10,560. Risk= 2 x 45.)
15:53: Dow spikes 10,440.
This is a 75-pt move from 10,515. Take profit from one trade. Let the other run.
Trade 1: Closed for hit of Profit Target.
Trade 2: SL=10,515. Reward=1 x 0).
Cumulative = - 165.
carried over: Cumulative= - 240.
(SHORT at 10,515. SL=10,560. Risk= 2 x 45.)
15:53: Dow spikes 10,440.
This is a 75-pt move from 10,515. Take profit from one trade. Let the other run.
Trade 1: Closed for hit of Profit Target.
Trade 2: SL=10,515. Reward=1 x 0).
Cumulative = - 165.
trendie
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May 26 2005 - Stop and Reverse
carried over: Trade 2: SL=10,515. Reward=1 x 0). Cumulative = - 165.
Yesterday Dow spiked 10,430. SL=10,505. Reward=10)
Dow reversed at spiked 10,505.
2nd trade closed out for + 10. Cumulative = - 155.
Now LONG at 10,505. SL=10,460. Risk=(2 x 45).
21:00: Dow spikes 10,535. SL=10,490. Risk=(2 x 15).
Note: in truth, I would have huge problems playing the above Long. Psychologically, I see the market as gearing for a fall. But then again, this is all about playing the rules, irrespective of opinion.
Note2: Trade 1 is a Range-play Profit target of 75 pts.
Trade 2 is a Trend-play open-ended.
21:08: I need to be more dynamic about profit-targets perhaps.
carried over: Trade 2: SL=10,515. Reward=1 x 0). Cumulative = - 165.
Yesterday Dow spiked 10,430. SL=10,505. Reward=10)
Dow reversed at spiked 10,505.
2nd trade closed out for + 10. Cumulative = - 155.
Now LONG at 10,505. SL=10,460. Risk=(2 x 45).
21:00: Dow spikes 10,535. SL=10,490. Risk=(2 x 15).
Note: in truth, I would have huge problems playing the above Long. Psychologically, I see the market as gearing for a fall. But then again, this is all about playing the rules, irrespective of opinion.
Note2: Trade 1 is a Range-play Profit target of 75 pts.
Trade 2 is a Trend-play open-ended.
21:08: I need to be more dynamic about profit-targets perhaps.
trendie
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w/c May 23 2005 - Stop and Reverse review
weekly overview:
8 trades: ( 6 trades clsoed: 4 losses, 2 wins. )
Trade 01: - 75.
Trade 02: - 75.
Trade 03: - 45.
Trade 04: - 45.
Trade 05: + 75.
Trade 06: + 10.
============
weekly result: - 155.
carried over:
Dow spikes 10,545. SL=10,500. Risk=(2 x 5).
Trade 07 / 08 : open risk: ( - 5 x 2 )
weekly overview:
8 trades: ( 6 trades clsoed: 4 losses, 2 wins. )
Trade 01: - 75.
Trade 02: - 75.
Trade 03: - 45.
Trade 04: - 45.
Trade 05: + 75.
Trade 06: + 10.
============
weekly result: - 155.
carried over:
Dow spikes 10,545. SL=10,500. Risk=(2 x 5).
Trade 07 / 08 : open risk: ( - 5 x 2 )
trendie
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Jun-01 - Jun-03 2005: Stop and Reverse
continuing on:
Jun-01:
15:00; Dow spikes 10,460. SL=10,505. Risk = (2 x 5)
15:30: Dow spikes 10,505. Result= - 10.
Now LONG at 10,505. SL = 10,460. Risk = (2 x 45)
17:00: Dow spikes 10,550. take 45 pts. Result = + 45.
17:00: Dow spikes 10,585. SL = 10,540. Reward= (1 x 35)
20:00; Dow spikes 10,540. Result = + 35.
Dow is now SHORT from 10,540. SL=10,585. Risk= (2 x 45)
Jun-03:
17:00; Dow spikes 10,495. Take 45 pts.
20:30; Dow spikes 10,450. SL = 10,495. Reward= (1 x 45)
w/c May-31: 4 results: -10, + 45, + 35, + 45. = + 115.
(with a built-in profit of 45 carried over into next week)
Notes: not sure what this means actually !!!!
continuing on:
Jun-01:
15:00; Dow spikes 10,460. SL=10,505. Risk = (2 x 5)
15:30: Dow spikes 10,505. Result= - 10.
Now LONG at 10,505. SL = 10,460. Risk = (2 x 45)
17:00: Dow spikes 10,550. take 45 pts. Result = + 45.
17:00: Dow spikes 10,585. SL = 10,540. Reward= (1 x 35)
20:00; Dow spikes 10,540. Result = + 35.
Dow is now SHORT from 10,540. SL=10,585. Risk= (2 x 45)
Jun-03:
17:00; Dow spikes 10,495. Take 45 pts.
20:30; Dow spikes 10,450. SL = 10,495. Reward= (1 x 45)
w/c May-31: 4 results: -10, + 45, + 35, + 45. = + 115.
(with a built-in profit of 45 carried over into next week)
Notes: not sure what this means actually !!!!
trendie
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w/c Jun-06 2005 Stop and Reverse
NB: I shall keep all trades in one page per week. (easire to follow)
carried over from last week: Dow spikes 10,450. SL = 10,495. Reward= (1 x 45)
Jun-06:
16:00 Dow spikes 10,440. SL=10,485. Reward = (1 x 55)
Jun-07:
15:00 Dow spikes 10,485. RESULT = + 55. (cumulative = + 55 ).
now LONG at 10,485. SL=10,440. Risk= (2 x 45 ).
17:30: Dow spikes 10,575.
a: profit-target got hit at 10,530. RESULT = + 45. ( cumulative = + 100).
b: for remaining trade, SL=10,530. (Risk=0).
19:15: Dow turns. last trade stopped out for 0. RESULT = 0.
now SHORT at 10,530. SL=10.575. Risk=(2 x 45)
a: profit target for 1st trade = 10,485.
20:20: Dow spikes 10,485. RESULT = + 45. (cumulative = + 145)
2nd trade running. SL=10,530. Risk=0.
NB: I shall keep all trades in one page per week. (easire to follow)
carried over from last week: Dow spikes 10,450. SL = 10,495. Reward= (1 x 45)
Jun-06:
16:00 Dow spikes 10,440. SL=10,485. Reward = (1 x 55)
Jun-07:
15:00 Dow spikes 10,485. RESULT = + 55. (cumulative = + 55 ).
now LONG at 10,485. SL=10,440. Risk= (2 x 45 ).
17:30: Dow spikes 10,575.
a: profit-target got hit at 10,530. RESULT = + 45. ( cumulative = + 100).
b: for remaining trade, SL=10,530. (Risk=0).
19:15: Dow turns. last trade stopped out for 0. RESULT = 0.
now SHORT at 10,530. SL=10.575. Risk=(2 x 45)
a: profit target for 1st trade = 10,485.
20:20: Dow spikes 10,485. RESULT = + 45. (cumulative = + 145)
2nd trade running. SL=10,530. Risk=0.
trendie
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w/c Jun-06: Stop and Reverse GBPUSD
01: 2 trades:
02: Increment by 25 pips on each 25 pips move, after 50 full pips have been gained.
02a: allow 50 points move even for initial stop and reverse.
03: first trade take profits at 25 pips.
START:
17:40: take SHORT on breach of 1.8200 OR take LONG on breach of 1.8225.
17:51: LONG at 1.8225. (x2). SL=1.8175.
01: 2 trades:
02: Increment by 25 pips on each 25 pips move, after 50 full pips have been gained.
02a: allow 50 points move even for initial stop and reverse.
03: first trade take profits at 25 pips.
START:
17:40: take SHORT on breach of 1.8200 OR take LONG on breach of 1.8225.
17:51: LONG at 1.8225. (x2). SL=1.8175.
trendie
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Journal entries week-ending Jun-10th 2005
The 45 point S/R was doing well until the whipsawing on Friday afternoon cut the system to shreds.
Ditto the trailing-stop on the GBPUSD.
I may have to conclude that a mechanical system may not be as effective as I had originally thought.
There always has to be a man-in-the-loop, to make on-the-day judgements.
Whenever I take a 1-2-3 trade, it is always based on the volatiity, for example, and the conditions leading up to the 1-2-3 pattern.
Also, wouldnt take such as trade against the major trend. Nor would I take a trade near support/resistance, unless it reversed from the levels.
Perhaps trading is more of an art-form than I had originally thought.
Maybe, that isnt such a bad thing.
The worry, for me, is that depending on the day, I will use different indicators depending on the type of patterns.
I will rely more on oscilators when I perceive the market to be rangey, and MAs when I perceive the market to be trending. And here lies the rub. It is MY perception. This is something I cannot quantify.
Bearing in mind the above, I wonder how useful posting further trades would be, considering any such mechanical system may not be as profitable.
And also, if I cant put forward something that can be learnt, ie, easily transferable, would posts be merely egotistical look-at-me-making-money posts ? ( I hasten to add, that I am only break-even. This, in itself is a confidence-boost, as opposed to losing. )
In general, I think the S/R was a better system. It was both rangey ( take profits after a given move ), and trendy, ( let the trade run ). This allowed profits during rangey days, and also during trends.
I feel, that this version could be combined with more analysis to be bettered. eg; dont use arbitrary points. ( 45 pts ) etc.
But this merely brings me back to reading the market.
This can only come from experience.
The 45 point S/R was doing well until the whipsawing on Friday afternoon cut the system to shreds.
Ditto the trailing-stop on the GBPUSD.
I may have to conclude that a mechanical system may not be as effective as I had originally thought.
There always has to be a man-in-the-loop, to make on-the-day judgements.
Whenever I take a 1-2-3 trade, it is always based on the volatiity, for example, and the conditions leading up to the 1-2-3 pattern.
Also, wouldnt take such as trade against the major trend. Nor would I take a trade near support/resistance, unless it reversed from the levels.
Perhaps trading is more of an art-form than I had originally thought.
Maybe, that isnt such a bad thing.
The worry, for me, is that depending on the day, I will use different indicators depending on the type of patterns.
I will rely more on oscilators when I perceive the market to be rangey, and MAs when I perceive the market to be trending. And here lies the rub. It is MY perception. This is something I cannot quantify.
Bearing in mind the above, I wonder how useful posting further trades would be, considering any such mechanical system may not be as profitable.
And also, if I cant put forward something that can be learnt, ie, easily transferable, would posts be merely egotistical look-at-me-making-money posts ? ( I hasten to add, that I am only break-even. This, in itself is a confidence-boost, as opposed to losing. )
In general, I think the S/R was a better system. It was both rangey ( take profits after a given move ), and trendy, ( let the trade run ). This allowed profits during rangey days, and also during trends.
I feel, that this version could be combined with more analysis to be bettered. eg; dont use arbitrary points. ( 45 pts ) etc.
But this merely brings me back to reading the market.
This can only come from experience.
trendie
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FX: Intra-Day trading
Work Project finished. Two whole months of continuous trading!!
Have relapsed into using Indicators.
Todays trades:
9:00 - 11:00: morning session:
USDCHF: SHORT: 1.2878. closed: 1.2825. result= + 53.
USDEUR: LONG: 1.2058. closed: 1.2096. result= + 38.
USDJPY: SHORT: 111.03. closed: 110.72. result= + 31.
13:00 - 15:30: afternoon session:
GBPCHF: LONG: 2.2870. closed: 2.2896. result= + 26.
EURGBP: LONG: 0.6792. closed: 0.6787. result= - 5.
EURUSD: SHORT: 1.2077. closed: 2.2043. result= + 34.
Total Daily result: + 177.
Notes: back to indicators!! also am using short, intensive activities, broken into morning and afternoon sessions.
The EURGBP was a mistake. Wanted to go Long the GBPEUR. My chart showed a price about 1.47xx. I ended up taking a GBPEUR trade, showing 0.67xx. This was a bit weird, so I closed out.
I am still closing out trades early, rather than let them run. Still scared the strat will backfire on me. Also, I now religiously place an automatic stop.
I also didnt leave trades. If they dont do what I think they will do, or are sluggish, I close them out.
I am not stuck to the screen all day long. My trading has stopped at 15:30. ( not counting Dow, SPX, etc). I fell chilled at this. ( the market will still be there next week, wont it. )
going into the weekend with a warm glow.
addendum: 15:37.
the GBPCHF went as high as 2.2850, so I missed out 50 pips.
the EURUSD dipped to about 1.2000/9980. so I missed out on about 40 pips.
Do I care? No. Pure luck. Next time, it will happen on "my watch", and I will catch it. I am not kicking myself on having missed anything.Still chilled out.
Work Project finished. Two whole months of continuous trading!!
Have relapsed into using Indicators.
Todays trades:
9:00 - 11:00: morning session:
USDCHF: SHORT: 1.2878. closed: 1.2825. result= + 53.
USDEUR: LONG: 1.2058. closed: 1.2096. result= + 38.
USDJPY: SHORT: 111.03. closed: 110.72. result= + 31.
13:00 - 15:30: afternoon session:
GBPCHF: LONG: 2.2870. closed: 2.2896. result= + 26.
EURGBP: LONG: 0.6792. closed: 0.6787. result= - 5.
EURUSD: SHORT: 1.2077. closed: 2.2043. result= + 34.
Total Daily result: + 177.
Notes: back to indicators!! also am using short, intensive activities, broken into morning and afternoon sessions.
The EURGBP was a mistake. Wanted to go Long the GBPEUR. My chart showed a price about 1.47xx. I ended up taking a GBPEUR trade, showing 0.67xx. This was a bit weird, so I closed out.
I am still closing out trades early, rather than let them run. Still scared the strat will backfire on me. Also, I now religiously place an automatic stop.
I also didnt leave trades. If they dont do what I think they will do, or are sluggish, I close them out.
I am not stuck to the screen all day long. My trading has stopped at 15:30. ( not counting Dow, SPX, etc). I fell chilled at this. ( the market will still be there next week, wont it. )
going into the weekend with a warm glow.
addendum: 15:37.
the GBPCHF went as high as 2.2850, so I missed out 50 pips.
the EURUSD dipped to about 1.2000/9980. so I missed out on about 40 pips.
Do I care? No. Pure luck. Next time, it will happen on "my watch", and I will catch it. I am not kicking myself on having missed anything.Still chilled out.
trendie
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FX: Intra-Day trading
Todays trades:
08:30 - 16:00: very quiet and ineffective day.
USDCHF: SHORT: 1.2967. closed: 1.3000. result= - 33.
USDCHF: SHORT: 1.2979. closed: 1.3011. result= - 32.
USDJPY: SHORT: 111.55. closed. 111.59. result= - 4.
GBPCHF: SHORT: 2.2870. closed. 2.2940. result= - 70.
USDCHF: SHORT: 1.3011. closed. 1.3023. result= - 12.
Todays results total: - 151.
NB: back into bad habit of preferring shorts over longs.
was a non-event day, so no real swings.
should have stayed ib bed.
traded for the sake of trading, rather than because there was a valid trade.
However, feel good, as trades got stopped out, because of stops.
Todays trades:
08:30 - 16:00: very quiet and ineffective day.
USDCHF: SHORT: 1.2967. closed: 1.3000. result= - 33.
USDCHF: SHORT: 1.2979. closed: 1.3011. result= - 32.
USDJPY: SHORT: 111.55. closed. 111.59. result= - 4.
GBPCHF: SHORT: 2.2870. closed. 2.2940. result= - 70.
USDCHF: SHORT: 1.3011. closed. 1.3023. result= - 12.
Todays results total: - 151.
NB: back into bad habit of preferring shorts over longs.
was a non-event day, so no real swings.
should have stayed ib bed.
traded for the sake of trading, rather than because there was a valid trade.
However, feel good, as trades got stopped out, because of stops.
trendie
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FX: Intra-Day Trading
Todays trades:
08:30 - 16:15: very flat day, with lots of false signals.
GBPUSD: LN: op: 1.7594. cls: 1.7545. result= - 49.
USDJPY: SH: op: 111.71. cls: 111.89. result= - 31.
USDJPY: SH: op: 111.81. cls: 111.89. result= - 8.
GBPUSD: SH: op: 1.7535. cls: 1.7566. result= - 31.
USDCHF: SH: op: 1.3057. cls: 1.3074. result= - 17.
GBPUSD: LN: op: 1.7566. cls: 1.7530. result= - 36.
Todays results total: - 172.
Notes: chuffin 'eck.
I could have scalped around 20 pips on most of above trades. I was looking for the "big move", and I let them slip.
I also allowed a trades that were 20 pips in my favour become a loss.
Market was flattish, and by the time I entered, the market started to turn.
NB1: Need to set trade to b/e, if I have 20 pips. ( Dont want to take the profit, as it may go further )
Oh well... am flat. Tomorrow is another day...
Todays trades:
08:30 - 16:15: very flat day, with lots of false signals.
GBPUSD: LN: op: 1.7594. cls: 1.7545. result= - 49.
USDJPY: SH: op: 111.71. cls: 111.89. result= - 31.
USDJPY: SH: op: 111.81. cls: 111.89. result= - 8.
GBPUSD: SH: op: 1.7535. cls: 1.7566. result= - 31.
USDCHF: SH: op: 1.3057. cls: 1.3074. result= - 17.
GBPUSD: LN: op: 1.7566. cls: 1.7530. result= - 36.
Todays results total: - 172.
Notes: chuffin 'eck.
I could have scalped around 20 pips on most of above trades. I was looking for the "big move", and I let them slip.
I also allowed a trades that were 20 pips in my favour become a loss.
Market was flattish, and by the time I entered, the market started to turn.
NB1: Need to set trade to b/e, if I have 20 pips. ( Dont want to take the profit, as it may go further )
Oh well... am flat. Tomorrow is another day...
trendie
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FX: Intra-Day Trading
08:30 - 17:10: slightly more active day. better signals.
EURUSD: SH: op: 1.1942. cls: 1.1921. result= + 21.
USDCHF: SH: op: 1.3057. cls: 1.3055. result= + 2.
Total results today: + 23.
Cumulative ( over 4 days ) : - 123.
Essentially a non-day.
Had, at one point, option to take profits of 30+ pts on the USDCHF. Got greedy, thinking I should hang-on for more. Market decided no, and I let those 30+ pts drift away.
NB1: Market has no obligation to me.
NB2: If you have a profit target in mind, TAKE IT. Dont dither.
With last two disastrous days in mind, have been snatching profit targets, rather than trend-following. Decided to stick to just a couple of curr-pairs, rather than many. Get my head clear.
Market seems to be picking up volatility. Looking forward to tomorrow.
08:30 - 17:10: slightly more active day. better signals.
EURUSD: SH: op: 1.1942. cls: 1.1921. result= + 21.
USDCHF: SH: op: 1.3057. cls: 1.3055. result= + 2.
Total results today: + 23.
Cumulative ( over 4 days ) : - 123.
Essentially a non-day.
Had, at one point, option to take profits of 30+ pts on the USDCHF. Got greedy, thinking I should hang-on for more. Market decided no, and I let those 30+ pts drift away.
NB1: Market has no obligation to me.
NB2: If you have a profit target in mind, TAKE IT. Dont dither.
With last two disastrous days in mind, have been snatching profit targets, rather than trend-following. Decided to stick to just a couple of curr-pairs, rather than many. Get my head clear.
Market seems to be picking up volatility. Looking forward to tomorrow.
trendie
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FX: Intra-Day Trading
08:30 - 11:00: major incident day.
EURUSD: SH: op: 1.1949. cls: 1.1971. result= - 22.
GBPUSD: SH: op: 1.7530. cls: 1.7438. result= + 92.
EDIT; ignore GBPUSD trade.
Total results today: - 22..
Cumulative ( over 5 days ) : - 145.
Didnt realise the surge in EURUSD was news-related. Thought I would fade it, as it seemed to go way beyond the median, and thought it would return.
The GBPUSD was on the right track. Again decided to bail out.
Will not trade for rest of today. Even Friday may be somewhat touchy. And, we're going into a weekend on such news.
EDIT 16:00: I think I want to discount the 92 on the GBPUSD, as it is a "tainted" trade.
The 92 pips worth will be given to UNICEF.
08:30 - 11:00: major incident day.
EURUSD: SH: op: 1.1949. cls: 1.1971. result= - 22.
GBPUSD: SH: op: 1.7530. cls: 1.7438. result= + 92.
EDIT; ignore GBPUSD trade.
Total results today: - 22..
Cumulative ( over 5 days ) : - 145.
Didnt realise the surge in EURUSD was news-related. Thought I would fade it, as it seemed to go way beyond the median, and thought it would return.
The GBPUSD was on the right track. Again decided to bail out.
Will not trade for rest of today. Even Friday may be somewhat touchy. And, we're going into a weekend on such news.
EDIT 16:00: I think I want to discount the 92 on the GBPUSD, as it is a "tainted" trade.
The 92 pips worth will be given to UNICEF.
trendie
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FX Intra-Day Trading
08:30 - 15:20: rabbit in headlights.
GBPUSD: LN: op: 1.7384. cls: 1.7397. result= + 13.
GBPUSD: LN: op: 1.7341. cls: 1.7397. result= + 56.
Total results today: + 69..
Cumulative ( over 6 days ) : - 76.
first trade, bounce off S-1. didnt trigger stop.
( pondered another Long off S-2. Eventually got trigger to buy another Long, hence 2 positions).
The trades went as high as 1.7435/38, but didnt bail out. Lost over 70 pips, as it fell back ot 1.7400.
Note: I dithered, and gave back about half my pips.
Overall, making progress. Still frustrating waiting for my 15-min bar signals. Still giving back too much. But seem to have a positive expectancy strat.
08:30 - 15:20: rabbit in headlights.
GBPUSD: LN: op: 1.7384. cls: 1.7397. result= + 13.
GBPUSD: LN: op: 1.7341. cls: 1.7397. result= + 56.
Total results today: + 69..
Cumulative ( over 6 days ) : - 76.
first trade, bounce off S-1. didnt trigger stop.
( pondered another Long off S-2. Eventually got trigger to buy another Long, hence 2 positions).
The trades went as high as 1.7435/38, but didnt bail out. Lost over 70 pips, as it fell back ot 1.7400.
Note: I dithered, and gave back about half my pips.
Overall, making progress. Still frustrating waiting for my 15-min bar signals. Still giving back too much. But seem to have a positive expectancy strat.
trendie
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FX Intra-Day Trading
08:30 - 16:00: rabbit in headlights (partially).
GBPUSD: SH: op: 1.7440. cls: 1.7540. result= - 100.
EURUSD: SH: op: 1.2009. cls: 1.2034. result= - 25.
Total results today: - 125.
Cumulative ( over 7 days ) : - 201.
NB1: failed to take loss early on on GBPUSD. Should have bailed out at 1.7470 or so.
NB2: took loss perfectly on EURUSD. But didnt reverse !!
08:30 - 16:00: rabbit in headlights (partially).
GBPUSD: SH: op: 1.7440. cls: 1.7540. result= - 100.
EURUSD: SH: op: 1.2009. cls: 1.2034. result= - 25.
Total results today: - 125.
Cumulative ( over 7 days ) : - 201.
NB1: failed to take loss early on on GBPUSD. Should have bailed out at 1.7470 or so.
NB2: took loss perfectly on EURUSD. But didnt reverse !!
