trendie's Blog

[trendie]

Dow: w/c Feb-07 2005

Dow:
15:27: LONG = 10,720. SL = 10,650. Risk = 70.
16:00: Dow spikes 10,730. SL = 10,660. Risk = 60.
21:00: an NR-7 day. Also an 'Evening Star Doji' ?? Bearish ?

Feb-08:
19:59: Dow spikes 10,740. SL = 10,670. Risk = 50.

Feb-09:
20:19: Dow spikes 10,670. S/R. ( Loss = 50 )
Trade is now SHORT. SL = 10,740. Risk = 70.

Feb-10: Dow spikes 10,740. ( Loss = 70. )
Dow is now LONG, SL = 10,700. ( Risk = 40 )

Feb-11:
17:53: had enough for this week. exit at 10,798.
weekly review to follow.

 

[trendie]

w/c Feb-07 2005 Review

£-trader: - 200: 2 trades: max loss.

GBPUSD: -15. 10 trades; 6 losses, 4 wins.

Dow S/R: -62. 3 trades: 2 losses, 1 win.

Notes:
£-trader, thankfully is still paper-trading.
Dow. The point of the S/R is to instil following rules. I think I can, sort of. But it is incredibly frustrating following rules and watching points slip away.
GBPUSD: I am warming to this. trades are essentially random-entries, and stop-loss taking.
I CAN take small losses.
What I need now is a more intelligent trade-placement !!
( I think I have re-discovered an indicator that is more responsive to different market terrains, ( fast when trending, slow when ranging. More study is afoot. )

 

[trendie]

GBP/USD: w/c Feb-14 2005

SELL: 1.8865: Stopped: 1.8895. LOSS = - 30. ( - 30 )
I think I entered correctly. But WHY did I go COUNTER-trend ??

Feb-15:
SELL: 1.8891. Stopped: 1.8960. LOSS = - 69. ( - 99 ) Dont ask . Just dont ask.
SELL: 1.8926. Stopped: 1.8906. WIN = + 20. ( - 79 ) I am losing it. That was a gamble-revenge-trade.
SELL: 1.8986. Stopped. 1.8971. WIN = + 15. ( - 64 ) Im scalping. This is desperate stuff.
SELL: 1.8956: Stopped: 1.8939. WIN = + 17. ( - 47 ) Visceral. Dangerous. Seat-of-the-pants. Scary.

NB: £-trader triggers a LONG. ( paper-trading )

Feb-16:
after the storm, calm has returned. ( no trading this day - day off )
NB: £-trader triggered a S/R. Now SHORT. ( - 100 )

Feb-17: now, which strategy shall I try today ?
NB: £-trader S/R for MAX loss. ( - 200 )
3 consecutive max-losses !! Whoops.

 

[trendie]

w/c Feb-14 2005 Review

No Dow trades.

5 GBPUSD trades: 3 Wins, 2 Losses. Net result: - 47.

£-trader: 3rd consecutive week with Max-Loss. ( - 200 ).

Notes: completely lost discipline. whenever I am in a trade using one method, I am always second-guessing the reasoning with some other method. Causes considerable stress. Either I need to hammer home one technique, or apply several simultaneously.
On the plus side, I am still taking losses !!
Next week is a work week, so back to normal - and back to EOD.
Maybe I am not cut out for intra-day trading - too much time on my hands to second-guess myself.

 

[trendie]

w/c Feb-21 2005 Review

Quiet week, due to project commitments.

No Dow trades.
No FX trades.

£-trader triggered a LONG. Then Reversed. Then reversed again !!
This is the fourth consecutive MaxLoss week of -200.

 

[trendie]

GBP/USD: w/c Feb-28 2005

£-trader triggered a SHORT today.

 

[trendie]

Dow: w/c Mar 14 2005

Im getting serious withdrawal symptoms from trading. Cant wait fro project to finish. So will trial a S/R variant.
Same as before. But now with 45-point Stop/Reverse. ( was getting frustrated at giving up 70-points, and not making points when market was moving. Will use a more reactive 45-points as a basis. Other rules also. )
My observations during the 70-pt S/R was that I wish I could have exited earlier to conserve points. But I was using the system to instil discipline. Which has worked to an extent.
Another observation is that rules seem better when used as broad-brush. The range of patterns, scenarios are such that it may not be possible to declare as all rules. ( I know, this may seem like an excuse to ignore the rules on a whim. )
I am also moving towards trend-lines rather than MAs as indicators.
They are more reactive to the markets whims, and more predictive ( Alan Farley, Master Swing Trader )

System 01:
Rules:
01: Stop and Reverse. 45-point . Untlimately, will trend-follow, so first trade may be random. ( reason: enforces discipline. also, prevents over-analysis and second-guessing the market ) Exceptions: 50% retracement/continuation. Will try to use some form of ATR to identify ideal S/R in the long-term.( see below )
02: Use 15-min or 30-min bars for analysis. ( prophet.net / advfn )
03: Draw trend-lines when appropriate. ( allow at least 5 30-min bars between drawing any lines, to avoid pre-judging a move. Exceptions: Fast-market. Drop to minimum 5 15-min bars
03a: allow at least 1 pullback event to get a clearer trend-line picture.
04: if the market appears to break a trend-line, and closes below it, early exit allowed.
05: only 2 consecutive S/R whipsaws allowed in 1 day. Close positions and stop trading for the day.
06: Observe if any pullbacks occur at 50% of previous high/low. If so, possible 1-2-3, then re-enter trade at continuation from the 50% point. ( this allows me to ignore 45-pt S/R when 1-2-3 more likely outcome.
07: on highs/lows ( double-tops / bottoms ), use 30-point S/R.
( this reflects good TA where 2Ts and 2Bs are support/resistance )
General notes:
monitor the highs/lows, as per Dow Theory.
I am also trying to define rules where it may be more prudent NOT to reverse trades, and to simply be out of the market.
For the time being, that will have to remain a discretion. By maintaining this log, I may be able to discern a pattern.

NB: Since I may not be able to monitor trades during the day, use prohet.net for prices, to see what I would have done.
( this will get messy when I have to be discretionary )

Note: go SHORT at market open March 14th.
( could just as easily have gone LONG, but then first trade almost irrelevant )

 

[trendie]

Dow: w/c Mar 14 2005

SHORT: Dow: 10,774. SL=10,820. (Risk=-46)
1:30PM US-time: bar 10,754. Therefore: SL=10,800. (Risk=-26)
3:30PM US-time: bar 10,805. Therefore, SL hit @ 10,800. ( -26).
Now LONG @ 10,800. SL=10,755. (Risk=45)
(note: trendline would have kept me short. personal note: I think short is way to go yet)

Mar-15th:
(bigcharts) 15:00: Dow spikes 10,830: SL=10,785. (Risk=-15)
18:54: Dow spikes my SL. Loss=-15. (cumulative=-41)
Now SHORT from 10,785. SL=10,830. (Risk=-45)
21:00: Dow spikes 10,755. SL=10,800. (Risk=-15)

Mar-16:
14:37: Dow spikes 10,705. SL=10,750. (Reward=35)
15:51: Dow spikes 10,655. SL=10,700. (Reward=85)
16:27: Dow spikes 10,645. SL=10,690. (Reward=95)
20:49: Dow spikes 10,625. SL=10,670. (Reward=115)

Mar-17:
18:39: Dow spikes 10,605 during the day. SL=10,650. (Reward=135)
also then gets taken out. WIN=135. (cumulative=+94)
Now LONG at 10,650. SL=10,605. (Risk=-45)
(personal view: I still think Down is the way.)

Mar-18:
Dow spikes 10,605. LOSS=45. (cumulative=+49)
Now SHORT at 10,605. SL=10,650. (Risk=45)
18:24 Dow spikes 10,585. SL=10.630. (Risk=25)
18:42 Dow spikes 10,575. SL=10.620. (Risk=15)

Mar-20: Dow spiked 10,620. Now LONG. LOSS=15. (cumulative=+34)
NB: failed to notice 2T at 10,650. Could hve used a 30-pt S/R.

 

[GHoSTMINER]

Regarding Paul Tudor Jones Video.. "TRADER: The Documentary"

I have had the video since the late 80's.. I can assure you it is an original film..

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GH_ST

PS. Only 5 days left all you jaded, skeptical, critics..

 

[trendie]

GBPUSD: w/c Mar 14 2005

Paper-trade:
Mar-15:
SHORT: 11:00AM: 1.9185. SL=1.9290.
16:40PM: move SL=1.9155. (Reward=30 locked)
19:44PM. Close trade at 1.9132. WIN=53.

Mar-16:
SHORT: 09:45AM: 1.9202. SL=1.9290.
second SHORT: 12:43PM: 1.9235. SL=1.9280.
15:55: both trades got stopped out.
1st short; LOSS=88. (cumulative; -35)
2nd short; LOSS=45. (cumulative; -80)

19:42: SHORT: 1.9251. SL=1.9285. (Profit Target=1.9135 !!!)

Mar-17:
move SL=1.9235. (locked in Reward=16)
15:09: got spiked out. WIN=16. (cumulative=-64)

 

[trendie]

w/c Mar-14 2005 Review

Dow: 45-pt S/R mechanical.
5 trades: -26, -15, +135, -45, -15.
1 win, 4 loss. Net result= +34.

GBPUSD: discretionary.
4 trades: +53, -88, -45, +16.
2 wins, 2 losses. Net result= -64.

Overall, not bad. Prefer FX to Dow. Need to allow Dow trades to breathe more. Diditn utilise the trend-lines as much as I could have. May have to make use of Profit Targets as well.

 

[trendie]

Dow: w/c Mar 21 2005

(This is done retrospectively. Data taken from prophet.net 30-min bars)
week started with a LONG from last week.

Mar18: (from last week)
LONG 10,620; SL=10.575. (Risk=-45)
3:30PM bar: Dow spikes 10,630. SL=10,585) Risk=-35.

Mar21:
10AM bar: Dow spikes 10,585. SL hit. LOSS=-35.
now SHORT. 10,585. SL=10,630. (Risk=-45).
11AM: Dow spikes 10,535. SL=10,580. (Reward=-5)
12PM: Dow spikes 10,580. SL hit WIN=5. (cumulative= -30)
Now LONG. 10,580. SL=10,535. (Risk=-45)

Mar 22:
2PM: Dow spikes 10,600. SL=10,555. (Risk=-25)
2:30PM. Dow spikes 10,555. SL hit. LOSS = -25 (cumulative=-55)
Now SHORT. 10,555. SL=10,600. (Risk=-45)

Mar 23:
Dow spikes 10,435. SL=10,480. (Reward=75)
1:30PM Dow spikes 10,480. SL hit WIN=75 (cumulative=+20)
Now LONG. 10,480. SL=10,435. (Risk=-45)
2:00PM: Dow spikes 10,490. SL=10,445. (Risk=-35)

personal note; perhaps I should go back to the 70-pt S/R. This seems to be a lot of hard work for little gain. Nevertheless, I am following a plan, taking losses.
Also, perhaps I should return to EOD trading !!!

Mar 24:
10AM: Dow spikes 10,500. SL=10,455. (Risk=-25).
UKtime: 17:41; Dow spikes 10,510, SL=10,465. (Risk=-15)

Sunday, Mar 26: the trade flipped in last hour. SL hit 10,465.
Now SHORT: SL=10,585. (Risk=120)

 

[trendie]

w/c Mar-21 2005 Review

GBPUSD: no trades

Dow: 5 trades; 2 wins, 3 losses. ( -35, +5, - 25, + 75, -15)
( first trade was carry-over from last week )
net result: + 5.

Perspective: the Dow had a weekly range of 200 pts ( 10,630 - 10,430 ), and I managed 5 pts = 2.5%. Useless !!

NB: corrected 14:05 today, as I didnt see the trade flipped in last hour of Thursday!!

 

[trendie]

Log w/c Mar 28 2005

Project is distracting me too much. My journal for past 2 weeks are frustrating, as I am writing it up after the event. I am reverting to mostly EOD, so that I can trade for real.

Mar 28:
Dow: active SHORT from last week. (from 10,465.)
GBPUSD: no trades as yet.

GBPUSD: SHORT 1.8630. SL=1.8700.
14:50: move SL to B/E. Risk = 0. (SL=1.8630)
15:09: stopped out for 0 (hurrah!!)

15:11: have another go! SHORT 1.8628. SL=1.8700.

Mar-29:
overnight: SHORT stopped out. LOSS=72.
09:07: GBPUSD: go LONG if 15-min bar closes above 1.8730. (1-2-3)
09:52 wnet LONG at 1.8733. SL=1.8690. Profit Target=1.8784. (51pts)
15:31: closed out at 1.8721. LOSS=12 (cumulative=LOSS=84)
15:31: went SHORT 1.8721.
(hey!! I can lose money in both directions!!)
16:36: close SHORT at 1.8743. LOSS=22. (cumulative=LOSS=106)
reason: interfering intra-day, when I should have been EODing!

Mar-30:
Dow: SHORT 10,505. SL=10,540. Profit Target=10,430.

 

[trendie]

May-04-2005: 3-Day Cycle curiosity

General info: http://www.clifdroke.com/info/3daycycle.mgi

I am curious about the 3-Day Cycle. It is a multi-day, swing-trading style system, perhaps useful for EOD-type players, yet also easy to implement (??) and assess.

Hindsight is easy, so I want to post my view of the days action without, obviously, knowing about tomorrows events.

Day-01: BUY day;
-starts the day off weak, but gradually gathers strength into the close. Assess opportunity to go LONG.

Day-02: SELL day;
-strong day (carried over from previous day), but look to close out position, as the day weakens or price flattens.

Day-03: SELL SHORT day;
-strong early part of day, but starts to weaken. Possibility to SHORT into the latter part of the day.

starts all over again:
Day-01: starts of weak, so look to close SHORTS, as the day should strengthen. See Day-01 above. (cycle starts again)

Yes, I know, I am already trying to make it better !!!!!.......
NB: interested to know why the trader should look to close positions on second day, when strength runs into 3rd day.

NB: Obviously, some days, or "phases" will stretch into more than 1 day. What I mean is, the Day-01 may take 2 days to complete, and Day-03 may take another 2 days to complete. Its the concept that needs to be borne in mind.
eg; in bull-phases, I suspect Day-01 and Day-02 are more drawn out, and Day-03 short-lived. And in bear-phases, Day-03 may be more longer-lived.

Anyway; I like the idea of 3-Day Cycles, and want to observe them.

 

[trendie]

w/c: May-02-2005: 3-Day Cycle Curiosity

started on May 4th, so no comments before.
NB: paper-trades only.

May-04: Dow:
a day of strength, as the market roared up, with barely a backwards glance.
I would identify this as a SELL day. (Day-02)
NB: so tomorrow should open strong, and flatten/weaken, later.
PS: I wonder if "later" should mean after lunchtime??

 

[trendie]

May-05-2005: 3-Day Cycle Curiosity

May-05: 15:04. Trigger SHORT if breakout of LOWER 1-hour range, currently, around 10,370.

18:28: Yowser !! Pity this is a paper-trade! Set SL=10,370. Risk=0.

21:27: well it closed half-way between the daily range. If today was a SELL SHORT day, then tomorrow should be a BUY day.
This means a weak morning, picking up strength into the afternoon. One complicating factor may be Govt news that may have a localised skewing of price action.

PS: day did start strong, then weaken !!

 

[trendie]

May-06-2005: 3-Day Cycle Curiosity

21:44: Didnt follow the pattern for a SELL-SHORT day. ( weak early, moving into strength)
Dont know what to make of this, other than to deem this a "non-event" day. Maybe this is where the flexibility comes in and I have to wait for Monday for the pattern to trigger a BUY DAY.
We shall see.
NB: my SHORT(paper) at 10,370 got stopped out for ZERO.

 

[trendie]

May-09-2005: 3-Day Cycle Curiosity

15:30: after first hour, appears to have shown some weakness.
If this is a BUY DAY, then it should strengthen and close up on the day.
Take a paper-LONG at 10,331. (fell as low as 10,320)

21:02: so, it started weak, and strengthened (??) into the rest of the day. this behaviour meets the criteria of a BUY DAY.
So, tomorrow should be a SELL DAY. The day should start strong, and stay strong, looking to close and go short on Wednesday. ( a SELL SHORT day )

21:06: incidentally, the last 2 days have been rather narrow-ranging. (60 for Fri, and today, 64). Does this mean a strong breakout sometime soon ?

 

[trendie]

May-10-2005: 3-Day Cycle Curiosity

15:47: 10,320 (-64). Not the SELL DAY I thought it would be.
Currently at the near-lows of past couple of days. I would not trigger a BUY - seems to have lost too much, and no obvious sighn of recovering. Since it didnt rise from the off, I cant see this as a SELL DAY. seems to be re-playing a BUY DAY, in that early action is weak. (assuming it will gain strenght into the afternoon).
Oh God, too much thinking, too many words. Where did I put that lucky coin ?

21:08: pattern nearer a SELL SHORT day but without the early-strength weakening. It just dived from the open.