Dentalfloss
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Spx
sellers hardly got a look in
sellers hardly got a look in
Trading with point and figure
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Dentalfloss
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The Week Ahead preview: 11 to 15 December 2017
- Markets may be thinking about winding for the year -end holidays this week, but the very busy schedule of major economic data and central bank events (the latter including Fed, ECB, BoE & SNB) looks to have no cares on that front. Politics will inevitably continue to cast a long shadow, with the week ending EU leaders’ summit, ANC Congress in South Africa and further NAFTA providing some of the key focal points. The launch of Bitcoin futures will inevitably be the other talking point.
- Statistically, following on from the strong US labour report, albeit with no signs of wage pressures, and slightly lower than expected China CPI and PPI readings, the focus will be on the rush of data from the US, UK and China.
- For the US, November's uptick in gasoline prices predicates forecast of a 0.4% m/m headline rise to take the y/y rate up to 2.2% (from 2.0%), while core CPI is seen posting an 'as usual' 0.2% m/m for an unchanged 1.8%. Thursday brings what is expected to be a very solid Retail Sales report, above all ex-Autos (consensus 0.7% m/m), underlining a continued healthy pace of Private Consumption in Q4, obviously assisted by 'Black Friday' sales. PPI, Industrial Production, NFIB Small Business Optimism, NY Fed Manufacturing survey and Import/Export Prices are also due.
- China has its run of monthly activity indicators, via way of Retail Sales, which are seen accelerating to 10.3% y/y from 10.0%, in no small part boosted by 'Singles Day, while Industrial Production (6.2% y/y) and Fixed Asset Investments (7.2% y/y) are seen steady vs. November. The latest monetary aggregate and lending statistics will also be closely monitored for how much impact the clampdown on leverage, credit and property investment is having, and whether it is really reining in flows to WMPs and China's shadow banking sector.
- The UK looks initially to the gamut of inflation indicators, with headline CPI seen up a modest 0.2% m/m, which would see the y/y rate edge back up to 2.9% (vs 2.8%), while RPI is seen rising 0.3% for an unchanged 4.0% y/y/. Wednesday's Average Hourly Earnings are seen picking up to 2.5% y/y from 2.2%, the best since December 2016's 2.6%; however the ex-Bonus measure is forecast to be unchanged at 2.2%, and some attention will need to be given to the FLS Employment data, which is forecast to fall what is a modest 40K, but still the largest fall since May 2015, and despite an expected dip in the Unemployment rate to 4.2%, its lowest in more than 40 years. Retail Sales will be the other highlight, with Black Friday sales seen providing a modest boost for a 0.4% m/m reading, which would edge the y/y rate back up to 0.2% from October's -0.3%.
- Other statistics of interest for the week include Japan's Q4 Tankan, Machinery Orders and PPI, Australian labour data and the flash Manufacturing and Services PMI readings in Japan, Eurozone and USA.
Central Banks:
- The FOMC meeting inevitably takes centre stage, with a 25 bps rate hike to 1.25-1.50% fully discounted (98.3% probability). However it is the latest 'dot plot' which will grab markets ' attention, with the prior dot plot discounting 3 rate hikes in 2018, but a number of previously modestly hawkish members seemingly suggesting that they might lower their trajectory. Given the changing of the guard at the top of the Fed, it seems likely that the statement will try and eschew any dramatic shifts in its language, retaining its 'data dependency', doubtless affirming the observations that growth and employment trends remain solid, while highlighting below target inflation. The question is whether they retain the stated belief that this is due to one off effects, and will likely prove transitory.
- The ECB has been making every effort to play down this month's meeting, above all in terms of major policy announcements. It will however present a fresh set of staff forecasts, which may see some marginal tweaks to short-term inflation forecasts, but perhaps rather more substantial upward revisions to GDP forecasts. The ECB will also have to offer some indications on how it plans to weight its EUR 30 Bln per month QE purchases in terms of govts vs. other bonds, and this will almost certainly see the proportion of govt bond purchases lowered. The council will however be keen to emphasize that its reinvestment purchases of govt bonds will remain very substantial.
- The Bank of England's MPC is expected to 'stand pat' after last month's 25 bps rate hike, and stick to the very shallow rate trajectory signalled in November's inflation report meeting. It will be interesting to see whether it signals a modestly more sanguine view on inflation, though it will inevitably stick to the view that the growth outlook remains very uncertain, and contingent on the evolution of Brexit negotiations.
- Switzerland's SNB will also be very firmly on hold, and while it is relatively satisfied that the CHF is finally starting to edge down, it will doubtless retain the observation that it remains overvalued. That said, inflation as measured by CPI is at its highest level since 2011, and clearly trending firmly higher (see chart). As such some modest upward revisions to its CPI forecast would seem appropriate, and per se signal that while the SNB certainly does not intend to pre-empt the ECB, it is also gradually preparing the ground for a period when it will be less accommodative.
- Norway's Norges Bank is set to keep rates on hold at 0.50%, and there will be a lot of interest in whether the weakness in CPI (headline and core CPI both expected to be at 1.2% y/y when published this week) prompts any changes to its rate trajectory.
- Elsewhere, the Banco de Mexico is expected to resume its tightening cycle with a further 25 bps to 7.25%, and more than likely endorse market expectations of a further 25 bps rate hike in February, given that the rebound in the MXN has not pushed down on CPI inflation as has been expected. Indeed November CPI posted a 1.0% m/m again (above all due to energy prices), which saw the y/y rate push up to its cyclical peak of 6.6%. By contrast Russia's Bank Rossi still has plenty of room to cut rates, with inflation remaining very subdued at 2.2% y/y, and is expected to cut by a further 25 bps to 8.0%, and scope to cut at least to 7.0% during 2018. Turkey's TCMB remains in the 'rock and a hard place' zone, with inflation sky high, growth respectable, but encumbered by colossal political pressure. It is expected to hike its 'late liquidity rate' by 100 bps to 13.25%.
- There are also policy rate decisions in Georgia, Iceland, Peru, Philippines and Uganda
- Outside of the aforementioned longstanding and overarching political issues, the Alabama state election and the state election in India PM's home sate of Gujarat will attract attention, as will the US FCC's vote on 'net neutrality.'
- In the commodities space, it will also be time for the next batch of monthly reports from OPEC on on Oil Markets and the WASDE report (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates).
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
- Markets may be thinking about winding for the year -end holidays this week, but the very busy schedule of major economic data and central bank events (the latter including Fed, ECB, BoE & SNB) looks to have no cares on that front. Politics will inevitably continue to cast a long shadow, with the week ending EU leaders’ summit, ANC Congress in South Africa and further NAFTA providing some of the key focal points. The launch of Bitcoin futures will inevitably be the other talking point.
- Statistically, following on from the strong US labour report, albeit with no signs of wage pressures, and slightly lower than expected China CPI and PPI readings, the focus will be on the rush of data from the US, UK and China.
- For the US, November's uptick in gasoline prices predicates forecast of a 0.4% m/m headline rise to take the y/y rate up to 2.2% (from 2.0%), while core CPI is seen posting an 'as usual' 0.2% m/m for an unchanged 1.8%. Thursday brings what is expected to be a very solid Retail Sales report, above all ex-Autos (consensus 0.7% m/m), underlining a continued healthy pace of Private Consumption in Q4, obviously assisted by 'Black Friday' sales. PPI, Industrial Production, NFIB Small Business Optimism, NY Fed Manufacturing survey and Import/Export Prices are also due.
- China has its run of monthly activity indicators, via way of Retail Sales, which are seen accelerating to 10.3% y/y from 10.0%, in no small part boosted by 'Singles Day, while Industrial Production (6.2% y/y) and Fixed Asset Investments (7.2% y/y) are seen steady vs. November. The latest monetary aggregate and lending statistics will also be closely monitored for how much impact the clampdown on leverage, credit and property investment is having, and whether it is really reining in flows to WMPs and China's shadow banking sector.
- The UK looks initially to the gamut of inflation indicators, with headline CPI seen up a modest 0.2% m/m, which would see the y/y rate edge back up to 2.9% (vs 2.8%), while RPI is seen rising 0.3% for an unchanged 4.0% y/y/. Wednesday's Average Hourly Earnings are seen picking up to 2.5% y/y from 2.2%, the best since December 2016's 2.6%; however the ex-Bonus measure is forecast to be unchanged at 2.2%, and some attention will need to be given to the FLS Employment data, which is forecast to fall what is a modest 40K, but still the largest fall since May 2015, and despite an expected dip in the Unemployment rate to 4.2%, its lowest in more than 40 years. Retail Sales will be the other highlight, with Black Friday sales seen providing a modest boost for a 0.4% m/m reading, which would edge the y/y rate back up to 0.2% from October's -0.3%.
- Other statistics of interest for the week include Japan's Q4 Tankan, Machinery Orders and PPI, Australian labour data and the flash Manufacturing and Services PMI readings in Japan, Eurozone and USA.
Central Banks:
- The FOMC meeting inevitably takes centre stage, with a 25 bps rate hike to 1.25-1.50% fully discounted (98.3% probability). However it is the latest 'dot plot' which will grab markets ' attention, with the prior dot plot discounting 3 rate hikes in 2018, but a number of previously modestly hawkish members seemingly suggesting that they might lower their trajectory. Given the changing of the guard at the top of the Fed, it seems likely that the statement will try and eschew any dramatic shifts in its language, retaining its 'data dependency', doubtless affirming the observations that growth and employment trends remain solid, while highlighting below target inflation. The question is whether they retain the stated belief that this is due to one off effects, and will likely prove transitory.
- The ECB has been making every effort to play down this month's meeting, above all in terms of major policy announcements. It will however present a fresh set of staff forecasts, which may see some marginal tweaks to short-term inflation forecasts, but perhaps rather more substantial upward revisions to GDP forecasts. The ECB will also have to offer some indications on how it plans to weight its EUR 30 Bln per month QE purchases in terms of govts vs. other bonds, and this will almost certainly see the proportion of govt bond purchases lowered. The council will however be keen to emphasize that its reinvestment purchases of govt bonds will remain very substantial.
- The Bank of England's MPC is expected to 'stand pat' after last month's 25 bps rate hike, and stick to the very shallow rate trajectory signalled in November's inflation report meeting. It will be interesting to see whether it signals a modestly more sanguine view on inflation, though it will inevitably stick to the view that the growth outlook remains very uncertain, and contingent on the evolution of Brexit negotiations.
- Switzerland's SNB will also be very firmly on hold, and while it is relatively satisfied that the CHF is finally starting to edge down, it will doubtless retain the observation that it remains overvalued. That said, inflation as measured by CPI is at its highest level since 2011, and clearly trending firmly higher (see chart). As such some modest upward revisions to its CPI forecast would seem appropriate, and per se signal that while the SNB certainly does not intend to pre-empt the ECB, it is also gradually preparing the ground for a period when it will be less accommodative.
- Norway's Norges Bank is set to keep rates on hold at 0.50%, and there will be a lot of interest in whether the weakness in CPI (headline and core CPI both expected to be at 1.2% y/y when published this week) prompts any changes to its rate trajectory.
- Elsewhere, the Banco de Mexico is expected to resume its tightening cycle with a further 25 bps to 7.25%, and more than likely endorse market expectations of a further 25 bps rate hike in February, given that the rebound in the MXN has not pushed down on CPI inflation as has been expected. Indeed November CPI posted a 1.0% m/m again (above all due to energy prices), which saw the y/y rate push up to its cyclical peak of 6.6%. By contrast Russia's Bank Rossi still has plenty of room to cut rates, with inflation remaining very subdued at 2.2% y/y, and is expected to cut by a further 25 bps to 8.0%, and scope to cut at least to 7.0% during 2018. Turkey's TCMB remains in the 'rock and a hard place' zone, with inflation sky high, growth respectable, but encumbered by colossal political pressure. It is expected to hike its 'late liquidity rate' by 100 bps to 13.25%.
- There are also policy rate decisions in Georgia, Iceland, Peru, Philippines and Uganda
- Outside of the aforementioned longstanding and overarching political issues, the Alabama state election and the state election in India PM's home sate of Gujarat will attract attention, as will the US FCC's vote on 'net neutrality.'
- In the commodities space, it will also be time for the next batch of monthly reports from OPEC on on Oil Markets and the WASDE report (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates).
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
Fxfriendpartner
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Hello,i'm in a Domaine of pharmacy and i "m interested in trading.nice to hear from you.thanks.
tokyojoe
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Hello Dentist, I make between £400 to £600 per day in a trade (an actual real life trade where I go out in the morning & come back in the afternoon/early eve) !
How much "actual" pound notes do you consistently make every day "trading" considering the ridiculous amount of posting you are able to do ?
I mean no disrespect, but how much money do you actually make ?
Furthermore, anyone else on this thread care to let me know how much money you actually bank each month, or are you a bunch of bored blokes with f@ck all else to do than post bs hindsight charts with "potential levels of interest" (give me a break)
How much money are you banking ?
How much are any of you banking ? I've told you what I'm earning......& it ain't from trading that's for sure !
It's a hobby at best, anyone earning £400-£600 per day....everyday... trading ???
How much "actual" pound notes do you consistently make every day "trading" considering the ridiculous amount of posting you are able to do ?
I mean no disrespect, but how much money do you actually make ?
Furthermore, anyone else on this thread care to let me know how much money you actually bank each month, or are you a bunch of bored blokes with f@ck all else to do than post bs hindsight charts with "potential levels of interest" (give me a break)
How much money are you banking ?
How much are any of you banking ? I've told you what I'm earning......& it ain't from trading that's for sure !
It's a hobby at best, anyone earning £400-£600 per day....everyday... trading ???
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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dax into the open
#
13200 wants to pop..needs to get into our 13300 area for a decent bull test
#
13200 wants to pop..needs to get into our 13300 area for a decent bull test
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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Hey joe
I only post cos it helps me think more clearly about what i am doing...that is it
The postings are for my benefit
Over time this has helped me improve my chart reading....that is all i am interested in
also it takes away the boredom
to me..its not about $$..my wife is hot on the account balance
Hopefully....somebody does get some benefit from my postings....that is of no concern to me
I only post cos it helps me think more clearly about what i am doing...that is it
The postings are for my benefit
Over time this has helped me improve my chart reading....that is all i am interested in
also it takes away the boredom
to me..its not about $$..my wife is hot on the account balance
Hopefully....somebody does get some benefit from my postings....that is of no concern to me
Dentalfloss
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Dow
C
cantagril
Just speaking for myself: I don't have a life, am completely bored with absolutely f@ck all else to do, don't know what I'm doing trading, never make anything (ever) and am certain that this thread isn't for serious guys like you.
C
cantagril
....and a very good morning to you
I thought I might do something on EG (for a change
) so now long from .8776, looking to take half off circa .8815 and close at .8835Attachments
Dentalfloss
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oil
horizontal supp area looming
horizontal supp area looming
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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EG
bulls in
ya might get.0.8850 horizontal rez
bulls in
ya might get.0.8850 horizontal rez
Dentalfloss
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spx is in rez now
prev supp area
prev supp area
Dentalfloss
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nas 100 pivot looming at 6385 area
6385-6400 to watch
6385-6400 to watch
Dentalfloss
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cable
back into our 1.3370 supp area
back into our 1.3370 supp area
C
cantagril
....and a very good morning to you
I thought I might do something on EG (for a change
Half off .8819
Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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dax
bull flag....or failure
bull flag....or failure
Dentalfloss
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Half done
bob a job week
