Trading the Gaps

I have not, jm99. My data is still shallow to have any statistical significance, about a year's worth. Other gap experts do not see any significant relationship either, for what it is worth. Gap guys I know avoid days such as today altogether specifically because they disrupt the validity of the gap.
I as well find it very hard to come up with an effective way to incorporate any fundamentals (economic reports) into the gap play. The closest I have come--and it has worked for me a couple of times--is to put a limit very far from the normal price range. If the market influence of the release is such that price will penetrate this unlikely level, it is likely it does so on a candle's tail. As soon as it does so, it is very likely to retract. I have been filled like this a handful of times. The flip coin is that, short of such an influential release, you may end up sitting out an otherwise smooth regular setup.
Otherwise, releases may be used to piggyback on ongoing gap behavior--if, and only if, there are no other major factors disrupting the gap. 8:30am is such a moment, where releases often cause a gap soar of 3 to five points with no follow-through to speak of, which means that even if gap does not close completely, you have a 3 to 5 point fading opportunity. And honestly, that is all I would want out of a gap setup anyway.
Long answer to a short question, sorry.

ok, here is some research re fed days, which have been pretty good for gap trading.

fed days have historically been bullish. for down gaps, this is an equity curve longing every es down gap and exiting at eod (since es began in 1997).

feddowngaps.jpg


for up gaps, here is an equity curve of a strat shorting the open and exiting eod.

fedupgaps.jpg



this isnt how i trade gaps.......just trying to demonstrate the directional bias historically :).
 
Interesting, jm99. EOD exits are far too rich for my blood, even though I have noticed that they do materialize with a nice profit factor more often than not.

Took another long position at 1094 at 9:58am, and got out at 1097.25 @10:58am. I am done trading for the day. In fact, I had left the 1094 limit active since premarket, as I had thought negative pressure due to jobless claims would have tagged and filled it on the candle tail. I guess my intuition was right :).
 
Interesting, jm99. EOD exits are far too rich for my blood, even though I have noticed that they do materialize with a nice profit factor more often than not.

Took another long position at 1094 at 9:58am, and got out at 1097.25 @10:58am. I am done trading for the day. In fact, I had left the 1094 limit active since premarket, as I had thought negative pressure due to jobless claims would have tagged and filled it on the candle tail. I guess my intuition was right :).

so looks like we get a decent gap up on opex day. any thoughts?
 
so looks like we get a decent gap up on opex day. any thoughts?

If it's > 4pts, I don't trade it because (a) big boys have moved the market (b) there is so much emotion in the price that it might go anywhere.
 
Gap is decent, reports are light today. But, it is options' expiration... Veteran gap traders generally play this day very conservatively, with reduced positions and targets.
JM, you may be referring to the 1102.75 around 5:30am EST (10:30GMT). That would have been a great shorting opportunity. Too bad I was asleep then :).
I have a limit standing at 1101 to go short. But if there is resistance, I will not hesitate to jump in for a 3point ride down.
 
pity, this gap is much smaller now...thats a bit of a risk factor wrt today, but...

shorting up gaps on opex day has histrocally been good odds for fill. below equity curve shows all up gaps shorted and targets gap fill, with dynamic stop, equivilant in todays markets at 5 pts. dyor etc zzz

opexupgap.jpg
 
Whew, what an hour. Got in short at 1098.75 @8;14am, just exited at 1095.5 @9:34am. I am done for today, folks.

jm99, I am embarrased to say I don't fully know how to understand your charts. When you have a spare moment, please advise on what I am supposed to read. Thanks in advance!
 
It did. And I did something I said I would not do. I got back in short at 1096.25 at 10:15 and just exited at my full target at 1093 (10:45am). Good gap today.
 
K folks, last time I do this. Got long 1088.74 at 11:46 and just exited full target at 1092 (12:14pm). Actually limit remained active for over an hour without filling, and thought i had missed out on what I judged to be a key reversal. Three full targets today, I am learning to be disciplined, I suppose.
 
Whew, what an hour. Got in short at 1098.75 @8;14am, just exited at 1095.5 @9:34am. I am done for today, folks.

jm99, I am embarrased to say I don't fully know how to understand your charts. When you have a spare moment, please advise on what I am supposed to read. Thanks in advance!

lol, its an equity curve (starts at $0, winning trade adds to it, losing get deducted) of a strategy that shorts (1 contract) on up gaps on opex day, targets gap fill. data mined from when es began in 1997 to present day. no compounding. if it slopes up from left to right and sample size is enough to make it statistically significant then some would say this provides an edge
 
K folks, last time I do this. Got long 1088.74 at 11:46 and just exited full target at 1092 (12:14pm). Actually limit remained active for over an hour without filling, and thought i had missed out on what I judged to be a key reversal. Three full targets today, I am learning to be disciplined, I suppose.


well done. btw (please dont take this the wrong way) posting retrosective trades will generaly be met with cynasism (unless they are losers :LOL:) on these sort of forums.
 
well done. btw (please dont take this the wrong way) posting retrosective trades will generaly be met with cynasism (unless they are losers :LOL:) on these sort of forums.

:) Absolutely agree. Hopefully the fact that I do not have a system for sale or any other motives grants me a bit of a reprieve from cynicism. Plus, its been a handful of days, not enough time for me to report stops--I usually have one to two stops a week, so that will be fun (Not, in Borat's words :)). In fact, I have a spreadsheet I posted at the beginning of this thread that goes back to September, and that has quite a bit of stops in it.
 
Short at 1109 @9:41am. First target 2 points just filled as I was writing this, second 5 points still in the game for half, moved stop to entry.
 
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