Trading Forex Today

[Fxstreet]

Forex Morning Meeting - Trading the Euro today

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil holds below $65, while DJIA index closed above 10.700. Crude Oil confirms to be trading within the uptrend channel, but not breaking above, which can serve as guidance for future resistance levels.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

Pair has broken down and it is merely above 1.2300 at this moment. It has found some support around the 50-day EMA, though it is looking very weak at the moment. Furthermore, depending on how you draw the trendlines, we could have just broken it. As I draw it, the uptrend line is situated today arouond 1.2250. However, picture looks weak and despite we are in an uptrend channel, until we see the 1.24 cleared back up again the negative tone may prevail. The 10 and 20 EMA are pointing downwards and are pretty close to the 50-day, which could be a major sign of trend reversal if confirmed. Tiny longs can be tried with tight stops around the trendline, with an eye to protect profits if the pair moves up more than 100 pips. I can’t stop saying that it might not be the best possible trade under current conditions. Indicators have confirmed the bearish signal for the pair, therefore this is clearly a technical trade of charticians against purely indicator-followers.


Trading Tips & Alerts (you’ll find more detailed info on them in the Trading Corner chat room):

Aud/Cad: Long @ 0.9071 (sept 2), target 0.9225 and beyond. Still presenting a decent bullish view. Last daily close (sept 9): 0.9121.

 

[Fxstreet]

Forex Morning Meeting

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil holds below $64, while DJIA index closed just below 10.700.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

As expected, any long positions were very risky at the moment, since pair is weak and lacks the momentum for any strong rebound. It currently is very close to the lower line of the current uptrend channel, which, if broken, it will definitely turn the situation to a bearish one. As it was commented in previous reports, daily indicators are not supporting the euro bullish view; instead, they have clearly signaled short positions to be taken on it. Yet again, the difficult choice of following indicators or charting lines shows up. Indicators won’t reverse its current bearish bias until 1.24 is cleared, so it would be wise either to reach that level, where longs will be “safer”, or to get the definite break of the 1.22 level, in which case 1.18 should be the next level to be reached. Bear also in mind that 1.2305 is now the 50-day EMA, and price is currenlty below it. Therefore, there we have the intermediate resistance that should be broken prior to any upside potential.


Trading Tips & Alerts (you’ll find more detailed info on them in the Trading Corner chat room):

(1)Aud/Cad: Long @ 0.9071 (sept 2), target 0.9225 and beyond. Still presenting a decent bullish view. Last daily close (sept 9): 0.9121.

(2)Usd/Cad: Long @ 1.1827 (sept 12), target 1.2060-1.2150 and beyond. Pair is presenting a very decent bullish view that is just confirmed.

 

[Fxstreet]

Forex Morning Meeting

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil holds below $64, while DJIA index closed just below 10.700 for the second straight day.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

Well below the 1.23, the Euro found ground just at the lower line of the current uptrend channel (a channel that has been forming for the last month or so), all within the bearish trend that started in january, 2005. That line lies around 1.2250 today, and everyone sees a break of it as the key for the next downmove. It is true, indeed, that the pair is playing with fire and selling pressure is increasing every passing day. Furthermore, the fact that the pair is unable to re-gain the 50-day SMA and indicators are confirmed bearish on a daily basis is not of much help. Buyers who did not take the channel trade should now wait for at least the 50-day movinga verage to be regained, preferrably wait for the moving averages to turn north again. The 10 & 20 EMA are just about to cross on the downside, which would add quite a significant pressure on it.


Trading Tips & Alerts (you’ll find more detailed info on them in the Trading Corner chat room):

(1)Aud/Cad: Long @ 0.9071 (sept 2), target 0.9225 and beyond. Still presenting a decent bullish view, less beautiful than days ago, but still enough to comment on it. Last daily close (sept 9): 0.9121.

(2)Usd/Cad: Long @ 1.1827 (sept 12), target 1.2060-1.2150 and beyond. Pair is presenting less bullish view than expected in the previous 2 days, but we assume the risks that are now associated with the pair moving to the low-1.17’s lows and hold the alert as a valid one.

 

[Fxstreet]

Forex Morning Meeting

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil bounced up yesterday to the mid $65’s, while DJIA index managed to close just above the 10.600 mark.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

As it was a premonition, the pair broke down to every single uptrend line on a daily basis yesterday. After a first moment of buying when economic news came out, selling pressure just got so hard that longers could not bare with it. The sell-off that later took place was just to confirm the indicators bearish signals and to pleasure those who had believed in them rather than in pure charting analysis.
Current technical picture will be USD bullish if today’s close holds at current levels, below 1.2220. In fibonaci terms, if the euro could just manage to hold the current levels it would bouncing off the 50% level of the 1.1867-1.2589, a levle I particularly do not rely much on when calculating the fibo levels ... which in turn, leads me to think that were the real battle will be set will be around 1.2150, where we find the key 61.8% fibo level of the previous upleg. However, if that level is seen, it is frankly unlikely that euro will make any fireworks to more than 1.26 and the downtrend could just resume in a strong mood and fast pace. The fact that the 10 EMA is about to cross down the 20-day one makes it more likely than not that we will see maybe today/tomorrow that key fibo level tested. Only a very sharp move above 1.2350, highly unlikely as of now (except for a big economic or geopolitical surprise), would change this view dramatically.


Trading Tips & Alerts (you’ll find more detailed info on them in the Trading Corner chat room):

(1)Aud/Cad: Long @ 0.9071 (sept 2), target 0.9225 and beyond. Its bullish view is deteriorating, therefore it will be safe to protect the position now. Last daily close (sept 9): 0.9121.

(2)Usd/Cad: Long @ 1.1827 (sept 12), target 1.2060-1.2150 and beyond. Pair is presenting less bullish view than expected in the previous 2 days, but we assume the risks that are now associated with the pair moving to the low-1.17’s lows and hold the alert as a valid one.

 

[Fxstreet]

Forex Morning Meeting

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil dipped down yesterday to the mid $64’s, while DJIA index dipped below 10.600.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

The pair managed to held the current uptrend line in place, as a dip below 1.22 was followed by a wave of euro buying that led the pair to test the 1.23 level again. It did only but retrace from that level, and it is currently barely above the 1.2250 level. 10 & 20 EMA haev a bearish cross and that will definitely add pressure to the pair, which could trigger to major stop hunting should the 1.22 level be definitely cleared. On the daily basis there is no room for bullishness in the pair, except for that the channel is still a valid one.
On the intraday basis, however, we saw yesterday bullish signals being confirmed (and trade alerts were called on the Trading Corner Chat Room) in the 60 minute charts, that definitely worked well for those who bought the pair, enjoying an almost 100 pip ride. Those same indicators signaling long yesterday have turned bearish this morning and short signals were alerted around european session start time. However, the retrace has stopped at the confluence of the 20 & 50 EMA, which are just about to make a bullish cross (not yet), adding some pressure on the long side if it finally gets confirmed. That would suit pure charticians who are foresighting a “cup of coffee” bullish formation, which should be confirmed later today (target around 1.2330) .... taking into account that losing the 1.2240 level will negate this view, because the “handle of the cup” would be broken (and many bullis dreams with it).

Trading Tips & Alerts (you’ll find more detailed info on them in the Trading Corner chat room):

(1)Aud/Cad: Long @ 0.9071 (sept 2), was closed at entry (protective stop). No new plans for the pair.

(2)Usd/Cad: Long @ 1.1827 (sept 12), target 1.2060-1.2150 and beyond. Pair is presenting less bullish view than expected in the previous 2 days, but we assume the risks that are now associated with the pair moving to the low-1.17’s lows and hold the alert as a valid one.

 

[Fxstreet]

Forex Morning Meeting

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil dipped down yesterday to the mid $63’s, while DJIA index regained some ground to around 10.650.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

After dismissing the possibility of a trend reversal (the cup ‘n coffe formation was easily broken), the pair is in full control by the USD bulls, who have even managed to break and currently stay below the last and key fibo level of the previous upleg that was situated at 1.2150. German elections, which have gone very close thus adding more uncertainty to the economy of that country, have nothing but added more pressure to the single currencym which could face a bigger drop this week with the FOMC rate decision announcement. 10 & 20 EMA are crossing down the 50-day EMA right now, and that is just another bearish signal for the pair. Any retracement now is a good opportunity to sell targeting this year’s lows and even beyond, because I just presume that if lows are attacked again, they won’t hold and the deeper correction some had anticipated will be playing in full force to, at least, 1.18. Anyone attempting to go long on the pair should just sit and wait for the 1.2350 level to be cleared ... highlyunlikely in coming days.

Trading Tips & Alerts (you’ll find more detailed info on them in the Trading Corner chat room):

(1)Usd/Cad: Long @ 1.1827 (sept 12), target 1.2060-1.2150 and beyond. Pair is presenting less bullish view than expected in the previous days, but we assume the risks that are now associated with the pair moving to the low-1.17’s lows and hold the alert as a valid one.

 

[leovirgo]

Any idea about USD JPY?

 

[Fxstreet]

Forex Morning Meeting

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil surged yesterday to the $67 level again, amidst fears for the consequences of another hurricane, this one called Rita, while DJIA index lost the previously gained ground, falling to around 10.550 again.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

The pair looks very vulnerable at the moment, with all indicators pointing south, the 61.8% fibo level of the previous upleg acting as the unbeatable resistance and the selling pressure beginning to mount on the pair. 1.1965 looks the reasonable downside target right now and today’s FOMC announcement could just be the catalysator of the move. Fundamentally there are more than reasons to think we will see a softer euro, and only the inflationary risks of high crude oil prices can refrain from that dump to happen straight away. But, unless some magic event unfolds, the technical picture is beginning to confirm the fundamental outlook in most of the pairs.

Trading Tips & Alerts (you’ll find more detailed info on them in the Trading Corner chat room):

(1)Usd/Cad: Long @ 1.1827 (sept 12), target 1.2060-1.2150 and beyond. Pair has broken multi-year lows (stop level) and is quite vulnerable at the moment. Target remains in place but deep pockets are now needed to stay in the trade.

 

[Fxstreet]

to leovirgo

I will post the usd/jpy analysis in the chart of the day today

Best regards,

Toni

 

[Fxstreet]

Forex Morning Meeting

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. FED did another 25bp rate hike to 3.75%. Crude Oil gained more ground to move above $67 level, amidst fears for Rita, while DJIA index dipped down after FED’s announcement, closing around 10.480.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

FED announcement of a yet another rate hike moved violently the euro to the downside, to test the 1.21 level, which held overnight .... and from which the longers established some positions, leading the pair to above 1.2200. Overall, the picture has not changed and I do not favour the long side. I would wait for 1.2290 to start adding to short positions, but one could start earlier at 1.2250, looking for quick hit-and-run entries that could yield profits (trades would be at the 200-sma resistance level on hourly charts, so the risk-reward would be decent). Daily short term moving averages have both crossed the 50-EMA and pair is even trading below the 10-EMA after all the events.

Trading Tips:

(1)Usd/Cad: Long @ 1.1827 (sept 12), target 1.2060-1.2150 and beyond. Pair is at fresh multi-year lows and position is a high-risk one right now.

 

[Fxstreet]

Forex Morning Meeting

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil gained more ground to move close to the $68 level, amidst fears for Rita, while DJIA index dipped down further, closing around 10.380.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

As written yesterday, 1.2250/60 has proven to be a tough barrier for the pair ... and this leads to think that the downside scenario that was described is in place. Pair is currently holding above 1.22, but watching cable dump well below 1.81 it looks as just as a matter of time for the euro to follow. It may be “Rita” or any other excuse, but the technical view isn’t supporting all those excuses and we will most likely see a “give-up”. Usd/Chf break above 1.2750 would act just as the confirmation of these words. Presumably, according to 4hr charts, we will see the usd/chf at new highs and euro at new lows, with eyes on the 1.18 level as a medium term target. 20&20EMA have crossed the 50EMA on the downside and it is a matter of time they just work to effect.

Trading Tips:

(1)Usd/Cad: Adding at 1.1630 to our existing long 1.1827 position. We still favour 1.2065-1.2100 to be seen.
(2)Nzd/Usd: We short @ 0.6980 betting the break of the current uptrend line from july, today around 0.6945, and targeting 0.68

 

[Fxstreet]

Forex Morning Meeting

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil gained lost ground to $65, while DJIA index recovered a bit, closing around 10.430.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

Pair moved very well technically and it is currently well below 1.2100, with the 1.2020/40 support level still intact. However, and despite any of the rebounds that could take place from now, pair is likely to resume the downtrend anytime soon, and a mid term target of 1.1800 is well on cards right now.
Any rebound in the pair, though short-lived, can be of importance if the usdchf is unable to clear the 1.2950 level, which would attract some fresh USD sellers that would in turn help the euro, who would be by that time around 1.2020 level. Favoured strategy: sell on rallies, though current levels are far less attractive than those above 1.2100. Anyone not short yet wait for higher levels to start your positioning; those who are short now, plan to add on a break of the 1.2020 level, targeting 1.1800 in mid term.

Trading Tips:

(1)Usd/Cad: Added @ 1.1630 (sept, 22) to our existing long 1.1827 position (sept, 12). We still favour 1.2065-1.2100 to be seen.
(2)Nzd/Usd: We shorted @ 0.6980 (sept, 22), and we realize at 0.6860 our profits. Flat on the pair right now.

 

[Fxstreet]

Forex Morning Meeting

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil gained lost a lot of ground during the weekend to close barely above $63.50, after Rita’s consequences proved to be less damaging than expeced. Meanwhile, DJIA index recovered a bit, closing around 10.460.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

Pair is just doing one of those so-expected rebounds. However, along with the other continental currencies, its view remains unchangedly bearish for the mid term and it is only a matter of time for the bearish tone to resume. After all, moves are not smooth and so we are not going to see a 1000 pip non-stop decline, therefore these kind of rebounds are widely expected, and they just contribute to add fresh air to the prevailing trend. Any rebound should be capped around the 10 and 20-EMA and by the 1.2230 level should the rise go further. Only above 1.2350 we would be changing our view to a mid-term bullish one. Any dip below 1.2000 targets 1.18, our favoured scenario for now.

Trading Tips:

(1)Usd/Cad: We just close our 2 longs on the pair @ 1.1827 and 1.1630 (average 1.1728) @ 1.1780 since, although we still favour 1.21 to print in coming sessions, we are not happy with its current ups and downs. Deep-pocket traders may want to wait till 1.21 prints out, pair may be rewarding at this stage.

 

[Fxstreet]

Forex Morning Meeting

Markets Snapshot
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil gained some ground during yesterday’s session to close around $65.50. Meanwhile, DJIA index closed around 10.440.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

Pair is at new lows every passing day, confirming its bearish momentum. Rumours of Asian Central Banks bidding the pair from below 1.20 have halted the move, though any rally is likely to be short-lived. Starting from 1.2070 and up to 1.2165, pair will be facing very tough resistances, and only a break of all of them could lead to think the market is ready for a trend reversal (which I personally do not think). Take a look at intraday indicators, when they get out of the current oversold condition they are likely to anticipate the next wave of euro selling. Mid-term 1.18 target remains intact for now.

Trading Tips:

None at this moment.

 

[Fxstreet]

Forex Morning Meeting

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil lost a bit during yesterday’s session to close around $64.90. Meanwhile, DJIA index closed around 10.460.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

The Euro gained some momentum overnight which was all lost in the first hours of the european session trading. Pair has a new resistance level to watch at the moment, which is the 1.2040 level. Above it, 1.2070/80 looks a tough level to fight. So, in short, a way full of obstacles on the upside for the pair. Only above 1.2165 it would negate the short-term view. The mid-term view and target of 1.18 and below remain intact. Picture has not changed much since yesterday and so we are at a point where good risk/reward trades are not easy to be found, unless on an intraday basis. Shorters would like to wait for 1.2070/80 to start mounting on euro selling and longers may better wait for sub 1.20 bargains.

Trading Tips:

None at this moment.

 

[Fxstreet]

Forex Morning Meeting

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil gained ground during yesterday’s session in this current yo-yo trading range, to close around $66.50. Meanwhile, DJIA index closed around 10.470.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

It looks as there is a real buying pressure coming from the sub-1.20 level. 1.1990 was again bravely defended with heavy volume coming into play just when most of those on the technical sied were starting to plan aggressive add-ons on the short side. The move that followed the breach of the 1.2 level caught many wrong-footed, forced them to square their positions (adding longs to the new and fresh longs coming in), thus resulting in a more than 80-pip upmove by the single currency. Move has been halted ahead of the important 1.2065/80 level, where some sellers have come into play. Short-term picture, however, does not rule out that a break of the 1.2080 level takes place, thus targeting 1.2130 downtrend line. Intraday oscillators still are euro favourable and so the rebound could continue for a while now. Short postions would prefer the dust to settle out or to start mounting from 1.2080 up to 1.2130, stops above 1.2165.

Trading Tips:

None at this moment.

 

[Fxstreet]

Forex Morning Meeting

Note: this is the last post in this forum. Thank you to anyone who has been reading it, I hope you found it useful.

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil barely moved yesterday and closed around $66.50. Meanwhile, DJIA index closed around 10.550.

Forex Technicals at a glance: The Eur/Usd today

Yesterday’s rally was well short-lived and the pair quickly tested back the lower line of the downtrend channel, hitting a low of 1.1999 in early european trading. Short positions are favoured since the current attempt to violate the latest “uptrend” line (connecting previous lows of 1.1977 and 1.1991) looks to be strong enough to force the pair to clearly break and stay below 1.20. Only a sharp move above 1.2060 would negate this view, but this is unlikely to happen for now. Initial target on the downside 1.1960, then 1.1870 and sub 1.18. Mid-term view remains intact.

Trading Tips:

None at this moment.