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Forex Morning Meeting

Economic Snapshot

Good morning from FXstreet.com. No relevant economic events happened overnight. A new year begins with the terrible tsunami news in the Indonesia and its surroundings' region.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3540 level, after a huge sel-loff to below 1.34 after reaching all-time highs at 1.3660. This has been a major play outside normal trading hours, so one could think this is a "big-hands" move. It looks as the pair is now stabilizing, and unless it is able to break the all-time high again, moving to define a second downward trendline point. Giving its current price, it doesn't present a bad risk/reward ratio to try a USD bull trade, but one should be extremely cautious in this current "caothic and extremely volatile" environment.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch level 1 is negative on the pair, and indicator watch level 2 is negative too. Pair is very volatile at the moment (which is by any means good).

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.9120 level, recovering ground after a huge sell-off that took it below the 1.9 level. At the moment, the pair is fighting to hold above the last uptrend trendline that can be drawn from october 6th. The daily picture, however, looks somewhat different than euro's. It started to move down earlier -while the euro was reaching new highs-, and the early warnings came in stronger (and more effective) than euro's. The result is a situation where, and unless new highs or clear technical signals are given, one would remain USD bull.
Indicators watch :Indicators watch level 1 holds a negative bias (from dec, 21, 2004) for the pair and Indicators watch level 2 hold that bias, too, but looking a bit more neutral.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1400 level. It is 115 pips above its recent low (at 1.1285), which caused a big reaction to above the 1.1550 level, which has almost been cleared back with the current retracement. What we see at the moment is just extreme volatility in all pairs, which also means more risky trading. The daily picture, however, looks USD somewhat bull-biased, but one would prefer this dust (volatility) to settle before taking a position.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch level 1 is bullish on the pair while Indicators watch level 2 is turning bullish but must still confirm the view.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.7085 level, after having made a very strong comeback from the 0.6850 level, which now has turned out to be a major/critical support, plus a second uptrend point from august, 3rd, 2004. Pair has tested, and failed to clear, the 0.71 level, but it isn't far from it either. Anyway, 0.71/0.7120/0.7150 area is a very strong resistance area, so one should expect some sideways action from now on.
Indicators watch : Indicatrors watch level 1 is bullish on the pair, while Indicators Wacth level 2 is neutral now, after having been bullish for some time now.

**Legend**
Indicators watch Level 1 : Trend indicators positioning.
Indicators watch Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Positioning (in pairs).
 
Forex Morning Meeting

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. No relevant economic events happened overnight. Crude Oil rose slightly yesterday, but it is still capped below the $43-46 barrier, respecting its current downward trendline from $55 highs. In the current environment, where a move in oil prices shake every financial market (for good or bad), it is interesting to keep an eye to its price action.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3400 level. If confirmed, this will be Euro’s third successive day of losses against the greenback. Not surprisingly, it has ost a great deal of its previous upward momentum, and further losses are to come would the pair trade technically. If we draw a trendline from the end of january 2002, and connect that point with the low of september 3, 2003, we get the current (and big) upward trendline that has been driving the pair to its current levels. If we draw a parallel to that trendline using the highs of july, 2002, we then have the 2 ½-year upward channel. One can see that, despite sometimes broken (thus providing some price aberration), the channel has been working well to determine stopping points for the rising of the Euro against the USD. Having said that, it can also be seen that the highs of some days ago around 1.3660, almost coincide with the top of the channel once again. Should this work, technically speaking, the pair ought to enter in a corrective move that could drive it to and below the 1.30 level. As yesterday presented, current positioning is to hold shorts, unless new highs are made, and looking for the base of the uptrend channel to take profits.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: is negative on the pair (since december 31, 2004, when it triggered a negative signal for the pair), while Indicators watch-level 2: is negative too (same date).

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8970 level, accelerating losses as I write. After breaking down the last and current upward trendline, which we can draw from october 6, 2004, the pair is being aggressively sold. If we take the previous point and connect it with september 2003 low, we get what one could consider the previous upward trendline (pound has moved significantly different than Euro, and thus it has created more trendlines to draw, so it is appropiate to determine which ones to follow as guidelines), which currently lays around 1.82/8300, which obviously opens the technical door for a strong move down, that it would follow and confirm the double top around the 1.95 mark, with its neckline at 1.9015. Current positioning is to hold shorts, targeting the length of the double top, negating the view should 1.93 and higher print again.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: holds a negative bias (from dec, 21, 2004) for the pair and Indicators watch-level 2: holds that bias, too (around late december, 2004).

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1540 level. It has a very nice technical aspect, and, if we see it above 1.17, a double base with a neckline around 1.1685 will be in place and its upward momentum could drive the pair up to the currently active (but far) downward trendline, around the 1.22-2300 level. (latest downward trendlines have already been broken). Current positioning is to hold longs and stop them only if a new low, below the current lowest levels around 1.1290, is made.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: is strong bullish (since december 30, 2004) on the pair, while Indicators watch-level 2: is now bullish (since january, 4, 2005).

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.7055 level, unable for the time being to break the 0.71 level. The clear channel that we have from the lows of august, 2004, connected with the lows of december, 2004, give trading clues on what it might happen to the pair. If the pair dips and daily-closes below 0.7030 (re-entering the channel), it could dip to the base of the channel, to 0.6900 approx. Should this channel work, technically speaking, then upside momentum (staying outside the channel’s range), should be very very limited.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: is bullish on the pair, though it has lost momentum, while Indicators Wacth-level 2 : is neutral now, after having been bullish for some time.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs).
 
wednesday, january 5, 2005

Forex Morning Meeting

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil closed around the $43.7 level, maintaining its current tone. US Dow Jones Index took a dip down to the 10.630 level, and that lead Asian exchanges to move down too. Equity investors were concerned on Fed’s words that interest rate hikes were likely to continue. Relating the tusnamis in Asia, we heard they will have have less economic impact that SARS. Check out Latest Forex News section to review full overnight econmic stories.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3280 level. In a far less volatiles tart of the session, the Euro is trading a bit above its recent lows around 1.3235. Given the fact we will be having the key US Non-Farm Payroll data on Friday, one could expect the consolidation of the current move and sideways moves till data is out. However, we have seen high volatility at the start of this year, so anything can change in a matter of hours. Anyway, Euro’s picture aginst the USD remains intact, and, as been told in previous reports, on a daily basis, unless it breaks to new highs, it may well be defining a new short trend. The fact that there isn’t a second point to draw that new downward trendline gives the chance of a pullback to higher levels. If such retracement were to be up to the 1.34’s, without breaking that area, could generate a head-and-shoulders formation, which would then confirm the bearish view in full force ... time will tell.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: is negative on the pair (since december 31, 2004, when it triggered a negative signal for the pair), while Indicators watch-level 2: is negative too (same date).

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8790 level, accelerating losses again as I write. Yesterday’s report showed the pair about to complete a double top around the 1.95’s, and –tipical for the GBP- in just one session it went to broke the neckline at 1.9015, extending losses to its current levels, and leaving the door open for a move to the 1.85 level, should the double top pay in full. I also yesterday talked about GBP’s current upward trendline : “...currently lays around 1.82/8300, which obviously opens the technical door for a strong move down.” Well, will this level be a price extension of the double top target or not, time will tell (as always does). Only a recover above 1.9350 (which looks highly improbable as of now), would negate this view and would generate a new one for the pair.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: holds a negative bias (from dec, 21, 2004) for the pair and Indicators watch-level 2: holds that bias, too (around late december, 2004).

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1680 level. It is just shy of breaking its double-bottom neckline, situated around the 1.1685 level, which, if finally broken, will open the door for a good upside move. Unlike the GBP, which broke the formation in the previous session, the swissy is finding some resistance at this point, given the importance of a clear break of the area. It appears to be a real game between those who firmly believe the dollar is condemned to fall non-stop, and those who think a new fresh start may be on cards.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: is strong bullish (since december 30, 2004) on the pair, while Indicators watch-level 2: is now bullish (since january, 4, 2005).

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.7065 level, trading in the 0.7030 – 0.7070 range. It attepmted, as presumed in yesterday’s report, to break down the upper line of its current uptrend channel, and trade within it. The line is currently around 0.7055, and pair’s low was 0.7037, but it spurt back up, and currently is trading outside the channel. Looks like the pair can trade above the channel ((to make its lines move up)), and then take a dip down to its base to resume the uptrend.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: is bullish on the pair, but it continues to loose momentum, while Indicators Wacth-level 2 : is neutral-bearish now, but no clear signals as of yet.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs).
 
friday, january 7, 2005

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil closed around the $45.25 level, while US Dow Jones Index holds below the 10.630 level. According to AFX News, China’s central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, promised mesures to develop domestic stock market. In Australia, november retail sales rose 0,1% from october to 16.5131 bln AUD$, and were up around 2% year-on-year. Check out Latest Forex News section to review full overnight econmic stories.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3225 level. As stated in the previous report of january 5th, the possibility of a recover by the majors against the USD, supported by intraday indicator signals was moderately probable. After hitting a new 4-week low, the Euro is currently following those indicator alerts and trading above the 1.32 level, ahead of the key NFP data, due out in about 4 hours time. Since that news is a “super” market mover, one would consider staying aside and watch price action after it is released. Not much more to add, in a daily-basis analysis, so we’ll wait after today’s trading session gives us some future clues.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: is negative on the pair (since december 31, 2004, when it triggered a negative signal for the pair), while Indicators watch-level 2: is negative too (same date).

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8815 level, behaving like the other majors against the greenback, that is, gaining some ground after its yesterday's lows. Technically its intraday indicators (at least the ones that I carefully watch), presented the same patterm Euro did, therefore a raise and the gain of some ground was well on cards.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: holds a negative bias (from dec, 21, 2004) for the pair and Indicators watch-level 2: holds that bias, too (around late december, 2004), but it has began to show some divergence between the 2 watched indicators.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1700 level. It is reacting to its negative indicators momentum in intraday timeframes (as expected, like the other majors), but still holding above the neckline of the daily double-bottom that seems to be forming. With today’s key data we’ll see if such double-bottom is here to stay or just gone.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: is strong bullish (since december 30, 2004) on the pair, while Indicators watch-level 2: is now bullish (since january, 4, 2005), ), but it has began to show some divergence between the 2 watched indicators.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.7030 level. The pair is, in any case, inside the uptrend channel (whatever lines you choose for drawing it), but it is somewhat indecisive and loosing momentum, so its future outlook (short term) is not very clear.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: is bullish on the pair, but it continues to loose momentum, while Indicators Wacth-level 2 : is neutral-bearish now, with more clear signals now.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs).
 
update, 10/1/2005

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil closed around the $45.3 level on friday, while US Dow Jones Index holds below the 10.630 level again. Check out Latest Forex News section to review overnight economic stories.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3100 level. Sell-off continued, following technicals, after the US NFP data was released on Friday. The number that came out was below expectations and should the conditions have been different, I’m quite sure it would’ve dragged the greenback down, hence my opinion that, “generally”, data is used to confirm an unfolding technical aspect for any particular currency pair. The Euro extended its losses well till the end of the session, making new lows as the week was to its end. It hit the lowest point at 1.3025, and, if fibonacci retracements were calculated from late august’s low (instead of year’s low), up to the highest point at 1.366, we see that Friday’s low at a.3025 coincides with the first fibo support level at 1.3025. At this moment, the division between those who think the Euro is done and will head for new lows and those who think that it might go to low 1.29’s but from there it should give new fresh highs above 1.40, is substantial. I’m of the opinion to watch the charts closely and adapt the view –if necessary- once key levels are broken. For now, Eruo could be forming (just speculation) the right shoulder (only starting to) of a head-and-shoulders formation on daily charts. To confirm it, it shouldn’t get pass the 1.3350 level (1.3450/1.3500 would definitely negate this view). If it doesn’t, the formation could be completed, and would target around 600 pips ... but as I said ... it is just speculation at this time.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: EUR Negative (december 31, 2004, when it triggered a negative signal for the pair). Indicators watch-level 2: EUR Negative (same date), but showing signs of oversold status.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8755 level, with the GBP recovering ground against the dollar after hitting fresh multi-week lows on Friday at 1.8645, joining the Euro on the ride down after the NFP data release. The double top around 1.95 worked efficiently and weighed on the pair for some weeks prior to the subsequent sell-off. It is currently battling to recover, and hold above, the support line that comes from a previous resistance level around 1.8755. Talking Fibonacci, if we take the low of october 2004 and connect to its recent highest point above 1.95, and calculate the fibo retracements in that upmove, we see the GBP currently trying to hold above the 50% retracement level (around 1.8640), its second support level, after having broken the 38,2% level (around 1.8855) quite easily.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: GBP Negative (dec, 21, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Negative (late december, 2004), showing oversold status and signs of possible retracement.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1800 level. On Friday, we saw quite good technical behaviour by the USD against the swiss franc. It tried, without success, to break down double-bottom’s neckline around 1.1680, and finally it spurt up after the NFP release. Target for the double bottom has not been met yet, and it is situated around the 1.21 level. However, taking Fibonnacci into account, we’re around the 38.2% correction level of last downmove (from october 2004), which could provide some resistance for the moment.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: USD Bullish (december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD bullish (january, 4, 2005), ), but it shows signs of fatigue at this moment.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6985 level. The pair dipped well below 0.7 confirming the signs of exhaustion showed by Indicators watch 2, and the fact that was trading out of the uptrend channel for quite a time it proved to weigh on it. It is in no-man’s land at the moment, in the middle of the channel.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: EUR negative (change today). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Negative (jan 3rd).

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs).
 
11/1/2005 session

Economic Snapshot
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil is currently below $45.30, after almost hitting $48 in yesterday’s session. US Dow Jones Index holds below the 10.630 level again, and technically it could correct a bit further.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3125 level. Euro continues its rebound against the USD, in a very modest way so far (it has retraced around 120 pips (touched 1.3145 from a 1.3025 low)) after last week’s decline. Fibonacci traders have been rewarded at the first support area of the previous upleg. This makes positive-Euro Elliott Wave counters happy as well, since their proclaims are we’re going to see the Euro above the 1.40 level in coming months. To me, unless a clear break of yesterday’s presented key region, or a clear break of the 1.25 level, things remain quite in the same tone, a bull market with decent retracements, and maybe one of those retracemente is the beginning of a bear market. Is current retracement the one to be? It could well be .. Is the current unfolding formation going to be completed? It could well happen .. Time will tell ...
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: EUR Negative (december 31, 2004, when it triggered a negative signal for the pair). Indicators watch-level 2: EUR Negative (same date), but mixed, with a divergence between the 2 indicators, alerting of this current rebound.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8765 level, pretty much unchanged with yesterday’s levels. The GBP is recovering from the oversold status, but anyway its recovery is also modest for the time being, and trading around the 1.8750 level, which could indeed be a key level if GBP dips and stays below it, because it has proven to be a difficult resistance to beat in the past. Then below we have its current upward trendline from 2003, and should it dip below it, there could be room for more, but that’s quite hipotetical for now. On the upside, only a clear break of the 1.94 level provides big upward momentum for the GBP.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: GBP Negative (dec, 21, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Negative (late december, 2004), showing oversold status and signs of possible retracement.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1775 level. Its first fibo resistance level has apped the upside momentum for now, bu it still looks good technically, only a clear break and a close below the 1.1680 level would give clear warning signals that the upward momentum is gone.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: USD Bullish (december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD bullish (january, 4, 2005), ), but it still shows signs of fatigue at this moment.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6995 level. It is playing around with its upward channel, and it is currently safely trading on the upper half of it, though it has all indicators being bearish with it, so quite neutral for the time being.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: EUR negative (change today). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Negative (jan 3rd).

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs).
 
12/1/2005 European Session

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil is currently above $46, testing resistance at current levels. If broken, it could well go to $50 again.The US Dow Jones Index did as expected and corrected to below 10.560, and the indicators’ picture should improve quite substantially to look bright again.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3090 level. Euro has dipped below the 1.31 level again, after hitting a high around 1.3170 yesterday, far from its first fibo correction level around 1.3260 of the current decline. The picture looks sideways for now, with typical up and down moves, close to somewhat key support levels, though. Daily view remains unchanged for the time being –indicators watch-, and I suggest keeping a daily perspective -unless one is a daytrader or aggressive trader, using very specific trading setups-, to remain focused in the current market trend, avoiding the noise this current market environment is generating. Interesting to see that it has its 200-day moving average far from current levels, around 1.25, and should we consider the current uptrend base level around 1.27, we have some ground to go should they act as a magnet. The 20-day moving average is not close to a cross down to the 50-day moving average (which I at least consider a good guideline or warning for the daily view), which could turn the currency into a consistent negative tone.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: EUR Negative (december 31, 2004, when it triggered a negative signal for the pair). Indicators watch-level 2: EUR Negative (same date), but mixed, with a divergence between the 2 indicators, alerting of possible oversold rebound condition.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8705 level, sliding at a much faster than Euro, and loosing around 0.35% at the moment. Yesterday it tried to hold, and it indeed closed above the 1.8750/60 resistance level, but now it is well below it, and should we see one or two closings below this level, this would be a clear warning for the currency. Similar to the Euro, it is far from reaching its first fibo correction level, situated around the 1.90 level, and close to its most recent support area, around 1.8650. Its current uptrend is now almost coinciding with its 200-day moving average, around 1.8335, and it has 2 shorter moving averages, 20 and 50-day, looking poised for a cross down, which could cause further decline, and if that happened, the level to watch would be that one where the longer moving average and the trendline are converging to.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: GBP Negative (dec, 21, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Negative (late december, 2004), showing oversold status and signs of possible retracement.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1825 level. Yesterday it came close to its first fibo correction level of the current upleg, around 1.1695, but it is currently trading far from i. It has indeed been the pair that has come loser to any of those calculations derived from the current market trend. What I find interesting is that, like in GBP, it has its 200-day moving average close to the current downward trendline, which could be, at the same time, the possible maximum target for the double bottom, should this be confirmed in price action. Furthermore, we have the 20-day moving average about to cross the 50-day one, which could mark the start of a new upmove for the pair.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: USD Bullish (december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD bullish (january, 4, 2005), ), but showing divergence between the 2 of them.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6995 level. It is playing around with its upward channel, and holding above its 50-day moving average though still below the 20-day one. They have both crossed up, so for the time being, buying the EUR against the GBP could yield some, though it would be preferred to have the indicators in its favour.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: EUR negative (change january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Negative (january, 3).

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs).
 
13/1/2005 European Session

Economic Snapshot
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil is staying above $46, still testing resistance at these current levels.The US Dow Jones hit the 10.500 level and it receovered back above 10.600, meaning it has some decent buying around at the moment.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3225 level. After a yet again disappointing economic-politic news from the US, the single currency went to test (and briefly go past) the first fibo correction level from the current decline. At the moment is trading below it and also barely trading below 50-day moving average. If we draw a line from October lows to the current low around 1.3025, we could consider this as a new uptrend line for the pair (keeping an eyue to the bigger one basing around 1.27 at the moment), and that might give some trading tips where key levels could be situated. If my H&S (head&shoulders) theory proves to be correct, then 1.30 for now is key; if it proves to be incorrect, then a break above the 61.8% fibo retracement will occur. Anyway, to start a bear trend we still need a second reference point, and that hasn’t come as of yet, therefore fibo levels provide much better info at the moment. Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average far from current levels, around 1.25. The 20-day moving average is not yet close to a cross down to the 50-day moving average.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: EUR Negative (no clear signal), but mixed, with a divergence between the 2 indicators, alerting of possible oversold rebound condition, turning to neutral for the currency.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8885 level, still below its first fibo correction level around 1.90, of the current downleg. Similar to the Euro, in the GBP we can also draw a new trendline with its current lows, to get the idea where the downward momentum could accelerate. Levels remain pretty much unchanged with previous reports, therefore my view remains intact. Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average far from current levels, around 1.8340. The 20-day moving average is quite close to a cross down to the 50-day moving average, which could confirm the bearish sentiment on the currency.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: GBP Negative (short signal on dec, 20, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Neutral, abandoning the short signal.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1700 level. Yesterday it went way down testing its current good technical formations, but today has recovered ground and still looks in shape for the time being. Due to political and crude oil concerns, what the USD looks good in a technical meaning, can be overtaken by a major factor such as yesterday’s negative economic-politic data surprise. Therefore, any raethorica involving technical aspects must watch very closely any of the political actions and reactions that are taking place, they should confirm or dismiss a particular technical view. Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving around 1.23, more or less when a downward trendline could be drawn. It moves slowly to any convergence with ther shorter ones. The 20-day moving average is about to cross (not yet) the 50-day moving average on the upside, which could confirm a bullish sentiment on the currency.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral (no signal).

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.7 level. It continues to play around with its upward channel. In yesterday’s report, I stated that it was quite safely to long EUR against the GBP on the current short moving averages bullish cross. It proved the cross valid when it yielded some when hitting the 0.7030 level. Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average around 0.68. The pair is above its 50-day moving average, situated at 0.6975, but below the 0.7008 level for the 20-day one. They both still have a bullish cross, but as time goes on one would prefer now a close above the 20-day moving average level to maintain its good tone. Having a clear divergence signal between indicators watch both levels 1 and 2, means that the current indefinition in the pair is likely to be over and will have to prove one of the 2 approaches wrong.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Negative (signaled short january, 3rd).

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs).
 
European Session, 14/1/2005

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil is almost at $48 a barrel, breaking what it looks like an ascending double top with neckline at $46. If it proves to be right, target is $52. The US Dow Jones, consequently, slipped back down to the 10.500 level, barely above it at the moment.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3085 level. The single currency has dipped more than 100 pips in the opneing of the european session, and it is threatening again to test some important support levels. It has accelerated losses after being unable to break above the first fibo correction level –which was coincident with its 50-day moving average-, thus enforcing its current technical tone. The battle between buyers and sellers might well have another go if support levels are tested, therefore a clear breakout or move either way can’t be ruled out in coming weeks. For now, nothing makes the current technical picture look diferent to me.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average far from current levels, moving slowly up. Interesting to note that EUR is well below its 20-day moving average and its 50-day moving average, and in fact, as stated above, the 50-day moving average has capped EUR’s rebound after bad US data.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: EUR Negative (without giving entry signal)

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8650 level, following its current technical picture and, similar to the EUR, after being unable to break the 50-day moving average –which was coincident with the first fibo correction level- after the bad US data, the pair is now exposed to further losses. The fact is that GBP pictured a bearish formation much earlier than EUR, and it has proven to be valid and indeed has yielded in full. However, picture still looks gloomy unless it spurts back up and breaks this current bearish environment the currency is in.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average still far from current levels, and moving slowly up. Howeever, the 20-day moving average is now poised to cross down to the 50-day moving average, alerting from further losses to the currency.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: GBP Negative (short signal on dec, 20, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Neutral.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1850 level. After having tested (and tested tough) the neckline of the well-formed current double bottom (in fact, at one stage it moved pass the first fibo support level of the upleg, but it never tested the second support (50% retracement) nor closed below the first one), it has moved back up, but it still is capped by the first fibo resistance (correction) level of the prevailing downleg. Though the technical picture coincides more or less with the current bearsih trendline reference, around 1.22-23, the pair first has to deal with these fibo levels to show the move is strong and consistent.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving still around 1.23, and as I’ve said many time, it is more or less when a valid downward trendline could be drawn. Important to see that the 20-day moving average has indeed crossed above the 50-day moving average, though very very marginally at the moment, so we’ll wait to see it confirmed, in a day or so.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral (no signal).

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.7015 level. It continues to play around with its upward channel ... for some days now. The moving averages cross is weighing on the upside more than the technical indicators bearish picture at this very particular moment. Can this be sustained or not it is only a matter of time.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average around 0.68, very slowly moving up. The pair is above its 50-day moving average, situated at 0.6975, and yesterday it closed above the20-day one, though at the moment is fighting to stay above it. They both still have a bullish cross, but as stated yesterday, there is a clear divergence signal with both indicators watch levels 1 and 2, meaning that the current indefinition in the pair is should have to come to an end and prove one of the 2 approaches wrong.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Negative (signaled short january, 3rd).

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs).
 
European Session, 17/1/2005

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Crude Oil is almost at $48.50 a barrel, confirming the break of what it looks like an ascending double top with neckline at $46. Again, if it proves to be right, target is $52. The US Dow Jones fights to stay above the 10,500 level, and for now it is successful, trading around 10,560. On Friday we saw a sharp decline of the US PPI (from +0.5 to -0.7) and an improved Industrial Production number (from +0.2 to +0.8).

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3125 level. After Thursday-Friday rollercoaster, where price went up and down in strong moves, the single currency is still consolidating above the 1.31 level. On a longer term perspective (weekly basis) it does not look in good shape, as it might trigger bearish signals soon. However, in this current trading environment, talking about what the future will be like is at least difficult, because of the unpredicatbility of the current not very stable economic environment.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2488. It is still holding below its 20-day moving average and its 50-day moving average, and in fact, they are less than 85 pips one to each other, so we’ll keep an eye on a possible cross soon.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: EUR Neutral, mixed with divergence between them.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8725 level. Similar to the EUR, and after a 2-day of reollercoasting, the GBP has stabilized above the 1.87 level, but still below that 1.8750/60 strong resistance, so it makes the pair still look vulnerable. We have a bearish moving averages cross (20 crossing dow the 50).
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8345. What we have today is the 20-day moving average crossing down the 50-day moving average, so in mving averages terms it has triggered a bearish signal.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: GBP Negative (short signal on dec, 20, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Neutral, mixed with no clear direction given..

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1775 level. It is unable to break above the fibo levels, and despite having bullish moving averages cross, it needs to show more strength to validate the move and the nice technical figure it formed. The fact that momentum indicators watch (level 2) offer clear divergence between the 2 indicators that are being watched, thus alerting of possible retracements, and the resilience of both european currencies to break key levels make the technipal picture look less trong than it should.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2309. We have the bullish cross of the 20-day moving to the 50-day already confirmed, so in terms of moving averages we have a bullish signal triggered.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral, mixed with divergence between them, an alert signal.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.7005 level. Stagnated within 35 pips for the last 3 sessions. The moving averages cross is weighing on the upside more than the technical indicators’ bearish picture at this very particular moment. Can this be sustained or not it is only a matter of time.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6803 today. The pair is above its 50-day moving average but it is below the 20-day one. They both still have a bullish cross, but as stated yesterday, there is a clear divergence signal with both indicators watch levels 1 and 2, meaning that the current indefinition in the pair is should have to come to an end and prove one of the 2 approaches wrong.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1: EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Negative (signaled short january, 3rd).

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs).
 
European Session, 18/1/2005

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. Due to the Martin Luther King day in the US, financial markets were closed. However, and related to the crude oil, topic, I found interesting to note that few days ago, the “heating oil” futures contract triggered a bullish signal, around the 1.3000 level, and it is currently at 1.3500. Should the trigger work for good and drive heating oil prices higher, one should consider seriously the bullish signal I talked about for the crude oil, targeting around $52, few reports before.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3025 level. It dipped below the 1.30 level but quickly recovered. However, the picture looks the same way it started the current year. The key level to wacth is 1.29, which, if broken, could lead to a fast dip down of the single currency. In the upside, the moving averages should be considered as resistance levels from now on, and they should be clearly broken up to negate the current view.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2487. The pair is still holding below its 20-day moving average and its 50-day moving average, and today they are less than 75 pips one to each other, so we’ll keep an eye on a possible cross soon, one must keep an eye on them for reference.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Neutral, mixed with divergence between them.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8585 level. The pair is unable to escape from the current bearish tone,and is hiting low after low each session. I’m inclined for some time now, as you may know, to the bearish view on the GBP, unless it clearly breaks key resistance levels, which, for the moment, are far from the current price. Interesting that the short moving average has crossed down the mid one, so therefore we have the bearish signal we were expecting some days ago. However, a retracement can’t be ruled out now according to indicators watch – level 2, which show signs of strength at the moment.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8344. We have the confirmation in today’s session that the 20-day moving average has crossed the 50-day on the down.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Negative (short signal on dec, 20, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP bullish, showing some strength for the currency.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1865 level. It has tried, unsuccessfully, to break and stay above the 1.19 level, and the picture still looks unclear, with the 50% correction (of the previous downtrend) level on target, around 1.20. It has to maintain itself above the previous resistance level to attempt a break of that level. Indicators that favoured the upmove look somewhat stagnated at the moment.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2310. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral, mixed with divergence between them, an alert signal.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6990 level. It looks as the indicators’ bearish tone for the currency is weighing more than the bullish moving average cross at the moment. However, the pair still is trading above its 50-day moving average, which should act as a support for the time being for the bullish sentiment. The 20-day moving average is capping rallies, and that provides uncertainty to the pair, which also, as said above, has the indicators against it.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6803 again today. The pair is above its 50-day moving average but it is below the 20-day one. They both still have a bullish cross, but as stated yesterday, there is a clear divergence signal with both indicators watch levels 1 and 2, meaning that the current indefinition in the pair is should have to come to an end and prove one of the 2 approaches wrong.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Negative.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
 
European Session, 19/1/2005

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil attmpted the $50 level in yesterday’s session, but being unable to reach it, it slipped back down to the low $48’s. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered ground closing around 10.630, providing the 10.500 level a tough one to break, at least for the moment.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3090 level. While the picture remains the same on a daily basis, both on the 1hr and the 4hr charts we were alerted in advance of this upmove by the single currency. Curious to me is that this upmove alert came just when the EUR hit what I still see as the neckline of a daily head & shoulders formation, providing the pair with some extra strength to recover territory against the USD. The greenback, however, and despite its good technical tone since the beginning of 2005, has not yet clearly shown signs of real fundamental strength to confirm the technical outlook. Indicators watch level-2 provided a good warning that the current downmove could be halted at least for a while.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2493. The pair is still holding below its 20-day moving average and its 50-day moving average, and today they are less than 55 pips one to each other, so we’ll keep an eye on a possible cross soon, one must keep an eye on them for reference.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Neutral, mixed with divergence between them.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8760 level. “However, a retracement can’t be ruled out now according to indicators watch – level 2, which show signs of strength at the moment.” This was said in yesterday’s report, and, enforced by 1hr and 4hr umove signals, provided to be the right move for the british pound. Though I’m inclined for some time now, as you may know, to the bearish view on the GBP, unless it clearly breaks key resistance levels, and watching the short moving average on the cross down the mid-term one, one must not think moves are due on a straight way fashion. Therefore, the current upmove, though still capped below (at the time of this writing) by the strong 1.8750/60 resistance, has to be considered as that “part of the game” where short term timeframes dictate their own rules awaiting the next daily-based big move.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8348. We had yesterday the confirmation of the 20-day moving average crossing the 50-day on the down.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Negative (short signal on dec, 20, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive, showing some strength for the currency.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1785 level. After unsuccessfully trying to break and stay above the 1.19 level, the pair has dipped back down below the 1.18 level, following, as its european fellow currencies, the shorter timeframes bearish signals. Moving averages should be taken as major support levels of the current upmove by the pair. Daily picture remains unaltered while price stays and hols above 1.16 level. However, indicators wach-level 2 alerted yesterday of the possible halt on the upmove.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2304. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral, mixed with divergence between them, an alert signal.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6980 level. Pair is currently following its indicators’ bearish tone rather than the bullish moving averages cross. In fact, the pair is fighting to hold above its 50-day moving average at this moment, and if it results to be unsuccessful, it could open the door to test the 0.69 level (lower line of the current uptrend channel).
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6805 today. The pair is fighting to stay above its 50-day moving average and it is below the 20-day one. They both still have a bullish cross, but as stated yesterday, there is a clear divergence signal with both indicators watch levels 1 and 2.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Negative.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
 
European Session, 20/1/2005

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil’s failed attempt to breach the $50 level has provided some shorts into play. Trading around the $47.3 level and testing the neckline of what could be a double bottom. Below $45 looks vulnerable again. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped again below the 10.550 level, favoruing its indicators short view. Curerntly trading around 10.540, and in my opninion, a re-test of the 10.500 level could be in cards, followed by a break of it.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.2985 level. The single currency is following perfectly what daily technical indicators (and longer term, too) are saying. In my yesterday report I talked about the retracement shown by shorter timeframes, which provided a 100+ pip rebound for the pair. However, the main weigh for the pair at this moment comes from longer term indicators, which are bearish on the EUR against the USD (mainly USD positiveness across the board) What does that mean? It means that, if everything works as indicators tell (that’a always a big “if”), and despite we won’t see a one-way move, longer term indicators will make the pair trade in their direction at a faster pace than shorter timeframe ones. Also bear in mind about my “H&S” theory, which still could be valid. Talking fibo, the EUR is holding below first level of the previous leg, marching and targeting the second one. The fact that we have momentum indicators watch (indicators watch level 2) in a neutral tone, might lead to think there would be a puase in the move. Anyway, please refer to the explanation in the GBP/USD comment for an interesting tip of how to use these indicators.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2497. 20-day is only 25 pips away from the 50-day, so a cross down may be inminent.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Neutral, mixed with divergence between them.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8660 level. After being the leader yesterday following short term indicators strength, the british currency is again weighed by its negative tone, that can be clearly seen with the cross down of the 20 and 50-day moving averages. Talking fibo, the currency is fighting to hold above the 50% retracement level of the previous upleg, a break there would target the 61.8% level and the major upward trendline around 1.83. Holding the level would make the pair gain momentum substantially. Indicators watch level 2 still show the GBP could gain some strength on a daily basis. However, and as a very important tip when using indicators, momentum indicators may provide false warning / exit signals if the prevailing trend is strong. That’s why in this report there are the 2 types of indicators. In a downtrend, it is always advisable to have both types in the bearish view, viceversa in an uptrend. However, if the trend is strong, trend indicators should prevail in trading considerations rather than momentum ones.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8351. We already have the confirmation of the 20-day moving average crossing the 50-day on the down.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Negative (short signal on dec, 20, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive, showing some strength for the currency.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1875 level. Smilar to the EUR (they have big correlation indeed), the CHF is again on the wall against the USD, which is attempting to break the 1.19 level again. Will it succeed? Well, the nearest resistance is the one provided by the 50% correction of the previous downtrend, around 1.1960. Its technical picture looks in good shape and for the moment it is proving the double-bottom to be valid, same targets as presented the days before should be expected. Regarding its indicators watch, level 2 shows divergence from level 1, similar to what I have explained in the other pairs.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2299. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral, mixed with divergence between them, an alert signal.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6945 level. Pair is still following its indicators’ bearish tone rather than the bullish moving averages cross, and that is weighing on the pair. Furthermore, the pair has broken down its 50-day moving average support, and though we still have the bullish cross there, if we don’t see a recovery above the 20-day one, it could open the door to test the 0.69 level (lower line of the current uptrend channel).
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6806 today. The pair is below both its 50-day moving average and its 20-day one, but they still hold a bullish cross. They both still have a bullish cross, but as stated yesterday, there is a clear divergence signal with both indicators watch levels 1 and 2.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral, changed today.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
 
European Session, 21/1/2005

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $47.4 level, almost unchanged with yesterday’s levels. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average confirmed indicators short view and broke 10.500, to close around 10.470.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.30 level. Short term indicators show strength for the single currency, and it is reacting positively to that, recovering from yesterday’s lows. It is also true that the rebound comes from a psichologically key point, around 1.2940, where both 50% fibo retracement of the previous upleg and 2004 top meet. However, moving averages are now poised for a cross down, so it does look that the preferred strategy still is “sell on rallies”.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2502. 20-day is only 6 pips away from the 50-day, so a cross down is inminent.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Neutral, mixed with divergence between them.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8730 level. Pair still capped by the 1.8750/60 area resistance, but managing to stay above its 50% correction level of the previous upleg. Only a break of 1.91 would negative its current negative tone, and that looks quite improbable as of now. However, and similar to the EUR, the birtish pound has short term indicators in his favour, so further gains can’t be ruled out, though one must keep an eye on the 200-sma and the big uptrend line as short references. We still see divergence betwen the two types of indicators in the watch.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8355. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Negative (short signal on dec, 20, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive, showing some strength for the currency.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1890 level. Talking Fibonacci, pair has been unable (as its european fellow currencies) to break above the 50% correction level from previous downleg, which looks to be the key level to determine that the previous move is likely to be over. Technically speaking it still looks good, while above 1.16, and it will look better once 1.20 breaks.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2294. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral, mixed with divergence between them, an alert signal.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6945 level. As presented yesterday, we forecasted the more likely chance that the pair would go to test the lower line of the current uptrend channel, from where it has spiked up recovering some ground. The EUR looks weak against the GBP and the moving averages have started to turn, pointing to a possible cross down in the near future (in some days, at least), giving the pair a bearish tone, only halted by the fact that we still are in an uptrend channel. A recovery above the 50-day moving average is needed to gain strength.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6807 today. The pair is below both its 50-day moving average and its 20-day one, but they still hold a bullish cross, though the 20-day has started to move south.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral, changed today.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
 
European Session, 24/1/2005

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $49 level, gaining again momentum and looking poised to attempt the $50 resistance, $2 short of the targeted $52 for the current double bottom formation. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average kept on falling after breaking down some supoport areas, and closed below the 10.400 level, confirming its indicators short view.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3080 level. The pair is still reacting positively to its short-term indicators bullishness, which kept it from breaking the 50% correction level of the previous upleg. However, the pair still is far from its first retracement level (38.2%) of the current downleg from its highs around 1.3650, which is located around 1.3200, which, coincidentally, is the level where we find the 20-day moving average today. Therefore, we expect to see some selling pressure if/when the pair gets to that level.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2514. And finally we have the bearish moving averages cross, with the 20-day crossing down the 50-day. Therefore, and from a moving averages point of view, short positions are preferred, which should eventually yield some.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Positive.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8830 level. The british pound has broken the 1.8750/60 level and it is now fighting the 20-day moving average resistance. Like the EUR, it held above the 50% retracement level of the previous upleg (which was eventually broken and recovered), and its about 100 pips below its first retracement level of the current downleg, more or less located around 1.8935. The pair still has a bearish moving averages cross, so the picture still is not bright.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8365. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Neutral (close of short signal, from dec, 20, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive, showing some strength for the currency.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1810 level. It has proven unable to break the 50% retracement level of the previous strong downleg, but still is above the first retracement level of the current upleg, which is situated around 1.1650 (it was marginally broken some days ago). Pair has the moving averages in its favour, with a bullish cross (20-day above 50-day).
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2281. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral, mixed with divergence between them, an alert signal.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6945 level. It is almost unchanged from Friday’s closing levels. Interesting to see that, after touching the base of its current upward channel, price spurt up, but the rally was halted well at the 50-day moving average level, where it sharply retraced to its current levels. Only being above the 20-day moving average will negative its current bearish tone. However, indicators watch level-2 show some strength for the pair today. A break of the 50-day moving average will be the first bullish signal for the pair.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6810 today. The pair is below both its 50-day moving average and its 20-day one, but they still hold a bullish cross, though the 20-day is moving south.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral-positive, showing some strength for the pair.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
 
European Session, 25/1/2005

Economic Snapshot
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $48.65 level, almost flat with respect to yesterday’s closing levels, but that didn’t help the stock markets for yet another day of losses. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average kept on falling, and closed around the 10.370 level, still confirming its indicators short view.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3070 level. It is almost unchanged from yesterday’s morning levels. After proving (for now) my H&S theory wrong (it rebounded from where a break would have left the door open for more downside), pair is rangebound between 1.2940 – 1.3120. Daily moving averages should act as a resistance for now, and those following the current downtrend could wait for a touch there to favour short positioning with an adequte risk/reward ratio. Buyers may look for dips now as long as current strong support levels hold.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2508. We have, from yesterday, a bearish cross, with the 20-day crossing down the 50-day. Therefore, and from a moving averages point of view, short positions are preferred, which should eventually yield some.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Neutral (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Positive.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8795 level. Pair holds above the 1.8750/60 resistance, but is capped for now by the 20-day moving average. While below the moving averages (50-day is around 1.90) its picture remains unchanged, though the indicators are giving the pair some strength at the moment. Therefore, short positions wouldn’t be favoured until higher levels are seen, trying to get a good risk/reward ratio. Buyers may want to wait for longing on dips, but always keeping an eye on the current support areas, which shouldn’t be broken.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8359. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Neutral. Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive, showing some strength for the currency.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1815 level. Almost, like the EUR, unchanged with respect to yesterday’s morning levels. I really would prefer to see aspike up and a break of the 1.1950 level in a sustained fashion, I’m indeed not happy with the swiss franc at current levels. Its slow but consistent decline for the past 3 sesions has put its indicators in a turn, and wouldn’t definitely be good if they trigger bearish signals.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2289. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral, mixed with divergence between them, an alert signal.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6950 level. Pair is in falt trading for 4 days now, and, unless either breaks the upward channel on the downside or the moving averages on the upside, it is not worth giving too much of a thinking on it.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6809 today. The pair is below both its 50-day moving average and its 20-day one, but they still hold a bullish cross, though the 20-day keeps moving south.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
 
European Session, 26/1/2005

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $49.6 level, again gaining momentum on the upside and poised for a break of the $50 resistance, which remains intact so far. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered from previous days’ losses and closed around the 10.465 level, but still hasn’t negate its indicators short view.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3015 level. The european currency made yet another attempt to break below the 1.2940 level, but was not successful at doing it. In case of being successful, the door to a sharp decline should have been opened. Instead, the pair held again to that magical key 50% fibo level and reacted very positively. A solid break above 1.3130 and further above the 20-day moving average could put in serious pressure the USD-bull team. While the daily picture remains intact, shorters might like to wait for that fibo level to definitely break or the moving averages to be touched before joining the train if they are not in yet. The divergence between indicators watch level 1 and 2 also favours this uncertain view for the moment with ups and downs, where eventually any position may yield some, either a short or a long one.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2514. We have a bearish cross from the 2 shorter mving averages, with the 20-day crossing down the 50-day. Therefore, and from a moving averages point of view, short positions are preferred, which should eventually yield some.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Positive.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8770 level. Pair is again above key 1.8750/760 area recovering more than 150 pips from yesterday’s second attempt to break lower. It is fighting also to break the 20-day moving average on the upside, which, just as a reminder, halted the previous rebound and made the pair to decline again. The bearish view, which on a daily basis is still intact, is still favoured until the 50-day moving average is broken on the upside, or 1.91 is cleared up, but shorters who didn’t join the downtrend train may wait to see if the 20-day moving average holds to enter the market or to wait for a break of it to try shorting around the 50-day moving average.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8364. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Neutral. Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive, showing some strength for the currency.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.19 level. Unable for the second straight time (like his european fellow EUR) to break above the 50% retracement fibo level, which is proven to be key if the USD wants to have another breathe of fresh longs with him. Indicators watch levels 1 and 2 show divergence in their readings, thus reinforcing the fact that the move isn’t clear by now and momentum isn’t as strong as some days ago pointing to the upside. In my opinion, if that 50% fibo level is broken, the 200-day moving average target is next. But don’t forget the 1.1650 level to hold.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2283. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral, mixed with divergence between them, an alert signal.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6930 level. It is about to testing once again the lower line of the uptrend channel, and its moving averages are threatening with a bearish cross. Pair must hold above this uptrend channel line and recover at least above its 50-day moving average to negate its current bearish tone.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6810 today. The pair is below both its 50-day moving average and its 20-day one, but they still hold a bullish cross, though the 20-day keeps moving south.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral-to positive.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
 
European Session, 27/1/2005

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $49 level, slipping more than sixty cents after proven again unable to break the $50 barrier. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered more territory and closed around the 10.500 level, attempting to make its indicators to turn bullish for the index.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3075 level. The single currency hit 1.3125 in early european session, but feel down to current levels, halted by the 1.3125 dinamic resistance. Well, apart from the divergence in the indicators watch levels 1 and 2, there is not much more to add to the current EUR behaviour compared to previous days. Fibonacci retracement levels have proved themselves to hold the key for the next big swing in the foreign exchange markets, and while they aren’t broken, in the upside or in the downside, we will probably be watching swings back-and-forth and stop hunting around.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2520. We have a bearish cross from the 2 shorter mving averages, with the 20-day crossing down the 50-day. Therefore, and from a moving averages point of view, short positions are preferred, which should eventually yield some.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Positive.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8850 level. Pair just closed barely above the 1.8750/760 area, and now is trading well off it, and also interesting, above the 20-day moving average. If it holds here, a move to the 50-day moving, around 1.90 is well on cards. Both moving averages, however, hold a bearish cross. Therefore, around the 1.90, fresh short net positions would probably arise.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8370. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Neutral. Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive, showing some strength for the currency.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1825 level. After failing to break above the 1.1960 key area, pair is barely holding above its 20-day moving average, which in case of a break, will be an alert signal. 50-day moving average is far from current levels, but it will be the key support if the dollar heads south. They both hold a bullish cross, so buying around moving averages is advisable for now. However, and similar to the EUR case, we have the divergence between indicators watch level 1 and 2, so uncertainty may rule the pair for now, and, as I said in previous reports, this also means both ways (short / long) may yield eventually some if traded.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2276. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Negative.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6940 level. Playing with its channel, it rbounded a bit after yet again testing the lower line of the channel. Moving averages are again close to each other and a cross south could happen, reinforcing the bearish tone for the pair, which, unless spurting back up, looks weak for now.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6812 today. The pair is below both its 50-day moving average and its 20-day one, but they still hold a bullish cross, though the 20-day keeps moving south and is near the 50-day on a south cross.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral-to positive.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
 
European Session, 28/1/2005

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $48.6 level, slipping a little bit more and proving the $50 barrier a tough one. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost some ground and clsoed around 10.470, halted by the 10.500 psichological level at the moment.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3040 level. In the current ups and downs it was time yesterday for the single currency to move south. Though daily picture is unchanged (indeed the bull USD view is reinforced by bullish USD crosses by the moving averages in all majors), and as I have said many times before, trading is not a one-way train. Therefore, watching momentum indicators as well as trend indicators make everyone alerted either of the possible halt of the current move (for some time), or when it looks poised for a resumption. Taking a look at what moving averages say, well it looks clear that for the moment USD bull positions are favoured. However, don’t take for granted that any entry level will be valid (as many times stated), but better to look for mild to strong resistance levels in case of a move halt to enter a trade in the direction of the current short term trend (longer term (for almost 3 years now) is USD bearish).
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2525. We have a bearish cross from the 2 shorter mving averages, with the 20-day crossing down the 50-day. Therefore, and from a moving averages point of view, short positions are preferred, which should eventually yield some.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Positive, giving some hints on the current market rangebound situation.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8850 level. It is virtually unchaged with respect to yesterday’s report levels, but the pair eventually traded above the 1.89 level, and closed above its 20-day moving average. Though short view is still preferred, the 50-day moving average should serve as a good reference for any bearish-oriented trade. Indicators, however, look mildly positive to the pair, giving it the boost we’ve seen in the last sessions.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8376. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now. Pair closed above the 20-day, and it is currently trading between them.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Neutral. Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive, showing some strength for the currency for some time now.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1850 level. Similar picture to the one presented for the EUR, but in this case we have the apir just amrginally above the 20-day moving average, and definitely below that key fibo level around 1.1960. Therefore, and despite its bulllish look, don’t take for granted that any entry level is good to place a trade. Moving average levels may give good support levels for now, with the 1.1650 level as key to maintain the bullish tone.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2270. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago. Pair is trading above them both.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Negative, provising signs of exhaustion to the pair.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6915 level. Definite bearish view for the pair, which broke the uptrend channel to the downside, and it is currently unable to break it back and regain momentum. What keeps me a little bit confused is the divergence between indicator watch levels 1 and 2, which show divergence between them, and the levl 2 is giving bullish signals for the pair. Only a break above the 0.6950 level would negate the bearish view and would place the pair in its channel again.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6812 today. The pair is below both its 50-day moving average and its 20-day one, and they are just about to make a bearish cross.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR positive.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument
 
European Session, 31/01/2005

Economic Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $46.5 level, slipping more and proving the $50 barrier to be a top for the moment. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost some more ground to close around 10.470.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3015 level. Nothing dramatically happened with respect to the single currency. It keeps threating to test the trendline around 1.2850 today, but first it has to break below the 50% fibo level around 1.2940. The 20-day moving average has halted the rebound so far and my H&S theory has not yet proven either to be correct or incorrect, time will tell very soon.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2537. We have a bearish cross from the 2 shorter mving averages, with the 20-day crossing down the 50-day. Therefore, and from a moving averages point of view, short positions are preferred, which should and are eventually yielding some.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Neutral.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8835 level. The british pound is still holding above the 20-day moving average and its current rebound has created a new upward trendline, which today lays mroe or less around 1.87. On the upside, pair didn’t touch, but went close to, the current downtrend line and it is currently moving south again. If we draw a parallel line for the current downtrend, we find it around 1.83, where some major levels arise, so the possibility gains momentum but a break of the 20-day moving average is needed for that to become a real possibility.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8381. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now. Pair is above the 20-day, and it is currently trading between them.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Neutral. Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive, showing some strength for the currency for some time now.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1915 level. The USD is again trying to attempt, breach, and consolidate above the 50% fibo level around 1.1960, which to me holds the key for further moves. Pair looks good technically and while moving above its 20-day moving average it also looks pretty solid. If we try to paint “fibo velocity lines” we broke to the downside the first one but we may be creating the second one now, time will tell.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2264. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago. Pair is trading above them both.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.691 level. The pair is unable to regain the uptrend line and its bearishness looks quite solid now. It should regain, as stated in previous reports, the 0.6950 level to negate the current view and add some momentum to the upside.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6814 today. The pair is below both its 50-day moving average and its 20-day one, and they are just about to make a bearish cross.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
 
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