Time

[hwsteele]

I have to be honest, I don't put allot of effort into day trading the SPX. I forecast turn times like I showed above. Then when the time comes if the turn takes the price back in the direction of the main trend I will take the trade. If not then I will think about taking the trade if the price target looks good. It depends on the current market conditions as to price target. I try to look for 10 points when I trade with the trend. If counter trend then I look for at least five. The last month or so the market has been very volatile so price targets have been quite a few points.
When I make a trade I mostly keep my price target at least 200% of my stop.
When I trade I will move the stop into the money one point after the market has moved my way a while. Again when I do this depends on the market conditions.
I didn't go into how a get my price targets as that is beyond the scope of this thread.
So does the trade management.

 

[hwsteele]

A quick note for the above post:
Price patterns and the time forecasts line up a good % of the times. When they don't the time forecasts are less reliable.

 

[hwsteele]

OK, this next method you can take it or leave it, but I do use it as a heads up for what could be.
In fact this method says that Monday (10-27-08) should be an up day.

This is the theory behind it. If you can turn price into time then you should be able to use the extreme price of a swing to time some other swing. This is how I go about doing it:
On 9-2-08 the SPX had a swing high and the highest price was 1303.04. Now we need to turn this into a usable short-term time forecast so we will move the decimal point to the left two places. This gives us the number 13.0304. Now we will look at 9-15-08 or 13 days after 9-2-08. I attached a chart so you can judge for your self if you think this method is useful.
Lets look at the next one:
The next swing was made on 9-5-08 and was a swing low at 1217.23. We use 12.1723 or 12 days.
The target is 9-17-08.
The next swing was a swing high at 1274.42(12.7442 or 13 rounded up to the next whole number) on 9-8-08.
Target day was 9-21-08 and that was a Sunday so look for the turn on Monday.
Next swing low was 9-11-08 at 1211.54(12.1154) target was 9-23-08.
Swing high 9-12-08 at 1255.09(12.5509 or rounded to 13) makes a target of 9-25-08.
Next swing low on 9-18-08 at 1133.50(11.3350) for a target of 9-29-08.
Next swing high on 9-19-08 at 1265.12(12.6512 or 13) for a target of 10-2-08.

Now if you're at all interested in this method you can pull up a chart of the SPX and keep working it forward. I will tell you that on 10-16-08 we had a swing low of 865.83 which gives us a turn forecast date of 10-25-08. That date is a Saturday so we move the forecast to the next trading day, which is this Monday 10-27-08.

 

[hwsteele]

The Moon

Now thinking about it using a 27 (or was it 28?) day/night lunar cycle would give it an overlap.

Ok Options, this one is for you!

Using the moon to time the markets!

How does one go about this? Well this is how I do it.
First a little information about the Moon:

It takes the Moon 27.322 days to orbit the Earth BUT it is 29.5306 days from new Moon to new Moon! The reason for the difference in time is because of the amount the Earth moves in it's orbit around the sun. I'm not going to go into any more details about the difference as that could take some time. Look it up online if you want to know more.

The idea that the Moon can effect mass psychology is not that crazy when you think about it. The Moon does move the ocean. Women have that special time of the month that happens to follow the moon also. That can cause quite the mood change!:cheesy:
Sorry didn't mean to offend any one, but it is true.

The way I figure it, the 29.53 number is the one to use as the tide is calculated with that number.
Now when I use the Moon I don't go looking for the full Moons or new Moons or things like that. What I do is use the Moon's cycle length to time the market.
One of the main ways I do that is to divide the 29.53 by 4.
That will give us the number 7.38 with which I round down to 7.
Then I find a major high or low on the daily chart and start a count from there. I use calendar days not trading days.

July 15th low will be a good place to start a count.
Take a look at the charts to see how well it comes out.
I will talk some more about the moon tomorrow.

 

[hwsteele]

Ok, today will be a quick one.
If you take 29.53 and divide by 4 we get 7 rounded down.
Well you can also divide 29.53 by 3. When doing that the answer comes out to 9.84 or 10rounded up.
I posted the same charts as yesterday with green dots above and below the price bar where the ten counts came out. The counts starting places are of course the same.

 

[rols]

Ok, today will be a quick one.
If you take 29.53 and divide by 4 we get 7 rounded down.
Well you can also divide 29.53 by 3. When doing that the answer comes out to 9.84 or 10rounded up.
I posted the same charts as yesterday with green dots above and below the price bar where the ten counts came out. The counts starting places are of course the same.

Ah a fellow lunartic!

Very interesting charts.

When I started posting about the moon and trading much mirth and derision ensued.
You're safe at the moment (JTrader is away)

The fact is that a considerable proportion of the worlds population (mainly Asian) take the moon and its movements very seriously - this includes traders. Especially Gold and Silver traders.

DIARY - Asian holidays to December 2007 | Markets | US | Reuters

 

[koolblue]

Hw, I find your work to be both innovative and facinating! Using the 837 swing low on the ES to the swing high at 1067 gives 1067-837=230 or 23 days. counting 23 days from the swing high at 1067 gives a pivot at Nov 14 which lines up perfectly with an expected 'kools tools ' low due the 13th or 14th. Also traditional cycle analysis has the all important 40-45 day low in this time frame!(last seen july 15, sept 18). Amazing stuff! By the way have you ever tried predicting price by using the same technique in reverse? ie: s&p500 is around 967, low in 10 days, so 10x10=100 points ,for an expected low around 860 or so? Just the way my twisted brain thinks i guess. Always looking for something new. Keep up the great work!

 

[hwsteele]

Ok,
Sorry it's been so long since my last time post.
This one is simple but you most likely will need a calculator.
Count the number of bars from a bottom to a top or from a top to a bottom. When you count, count the first bar as one and not zero.
Once you have your count for instance 7, find the square root of that number.
For 7 it is: 2.646
Then you multiply the square root of the number by the number its self.
i.e. 7x2.646=18.52.
Then round the number down to the closes whole number.
Then the last step is to add that number to the last bar that was counted.
Remember to count calender days.

 

[Ataye]

I congratulate and thank you for this generous thread. I happen to appreciate time cycles and have been researching the subject for some 8 months now. I therefore know how relatively scares any decent information on time analysis could be. That is why I refer to your efforts as "generous".

I am familiar with J M Hurst's work and gradually starting to include time analysis in my trading strategy. He counts his cycles slightly differently and so I am hoping to add your view to the experience.
I prefer your simple explanation of the principles of commonality, summation, nominality and variation between time cycles. I suspect your price calculations express the principle of proportionality but I will have to have another look at your explanations.

In all, your work is generating clarity on one of the more elusive areas of TA. No disrespect to JM Hurst, he explained like an engineer. I suspect you are an engineer as well but you are doing a better job in my opinion.

Keep up the good work as some of us are reading on with keen interest.

Ataye

 

[hwsteele]

Ataye,
Thank you for the kind words. I too have read some of Hursts work. While interesting I found it to be a bit dry and a touch lacking. Not that it is bad information, because it is not. It's just not 100% my style. I have always found the best results come from "resetting" my cycle count fresh often. i.e. using the latest major high or low. That does not mean you can't use time other ways. As people are all different each will use time in their own way, if they use it at all.
The last month or so I have been super busy and just pop in on the board from time to time. I am hoping after the holidays are over I will be able to devote more time to this and other threads.

Happy trading,
Jason

 

[coopster]

Very interesting read guys, keep up the good work.

I can't help thinking that whatever the calculations are, they are just a way to remove a time element from the decision making process. "The moon says i must trade on Monday so i have to trade on Monday".

The rest is handled with money management to determine profit or loss.

Whatever helps to give you the confidence to click the Trade button i guess.

I read on with interest.

 

[hwsteele]

Very interesting read guys, keep up the good work.

I can't help thinking that whatever the calculations are, they are just a way to remove a time element from the decision making process. "The moon says i must trade on Monday so i have to trade on Monday".

The rest is handled with money management to determine profit or loss.

Whatever helps to give you the confidence to click the Trade button i guess.

I read on with interest.

Why it works as well as it does I won't pretend to know. I have my ideas but that's all they are. The thing is timing the markets is just like trading price patterns.
You get an idea about something or maybe you noticed something happening on a regular basis. At that point you have to get ALLOT of historic data and start seeing how well it worked in the past. If it works well more than not, and if it compliments you as a trader, you add it to your trading. If not then on to the next thing.
It's true that everyone is different. Some people I know who trade CAN NOT except the timing methods I talked about in this tread. They still do well trading. It's just not them. I also know a couple of people who were so bedazzled by these "timers" that they lost focus of the one true holy grail...money management.
If what I share can help anyone then I'm happy, and I hope that at some point someone may share something with me that helps me as much.