Cable & pivot points

[Vaco]

chart of friday's action below.

lets see if it will look as good when i'm doing it in real time

 

[Vaco]

the set up worked well today with bounces off of S1 all day, I missed the break out in the first our as i was not home yet, i then found myself getting out at break even for the next 2 set ups then missing the 3rd and and 4th as i was asleep. 5th was another b.e trade followed by no 6 which was a loss, last trade of the day was a breakout of the range we had all day and was also b.e.

today resulted in a small loss however if i had taken the two bounces which occurred at lunchtime i would positive for the day by a good margin.

Overal i'm happy with the way the day played out although i'm disappointed about the missed opportunities.

 

[Vaco]

Today i ended the day on a + due to the first trade running straight up to R1, i then got stopped out on what i thought would be a bounce back down.

3rd arrow was a small winner followed by the next 2 at BE.

I then took another hit on a short at R2.

It really is the simple things that will churn out a profit over time.

tight stops. i'm using 10 pip stop.

i've had too many be trades that could have earnt some pips so i will close half the position when i move the stop to be.

I believe its rath that said 'some small losers some small winners and every now and then a big winner to boast things along'

 

[shadowninja]

10 pips stops? why not put a stop near the next pivot back and a target near the pivot in your favour.

 

[Vaco]

10 pips stops? why not put a stop near the next pivot back and a target near the pivot in your favour.

60 odd pips between r1 and r2 today, i would only use a stop that wide for a 3-4 day swing trade.

 

[gedward3]

60 odd pips between r1 and r2 today, i would only use a stop that wide for a 3-4 day swing trade.

Elefteros,

Why dont you use Captain Currencys 3 Ducks System to confirm
the direction of the trade and use that with the pivots as targets.
Ive been doing quite well with the pivots and 3 ducks set up plus
a few other bits from my own system.

Ged

 

[Trader333]

If you have a large enough account and then position size correctly then 60 pips is not an issue unless the target reward is too low compared to the expectancy of your approach (which should be positive)


Paul

 

[Vaco]

If you have a large enough account and then position size correctly then 60 pips is not an issue unless the target reward is too low compared to the expectancy of your approach (which should be positive)


Paul

exactly,

as i'm only targeting the next pivot using the previous pivot as a stop brings the trade to about a 1:1 R/R which is too low for my tastes,

My win rate ave between 40-50% so i would rather have a tight stop.

With an initial target of 20 pips and the potential for the rest to run up to 60 pips or more, i feel more confident in my trading.

I will also be able to leverage my account much more aggresively whilst remaining within 1% risk per trade.

 

[Trader333]

Good points. What I would say is to determine at the start of the day if the instrument you are looking to trade has a Long or Short bias. I usually do this by looking at the price action on a daily time frame. Then only take trades in the direction of that bias and only at a pivot level where a clear price action trigger is observed.


Paul

 

[Vaco]

Slept all day today so no action to update on.

Paul, i do tend to have a general bias for the day but i try and block it out as i end up trding my belief that it will go one way rather then trade what i see.

Today would have been a good example, after yesterdays rally i was expecting the next few days to take us higher.

 

[shadowninja]

TBH, the old R/R thing is just a rule of thumb, I've found. You can comfortably grow your account even if the R/R is less than favourable... if the probabilities of success are well-stacked in your favour and you can manage your trade well.

 

[Trader333]

TBH, the old R/R thing is just a rule of thumb, I've found. You can comfortably grow your account even if the R/R is less than favourable... if the probabilities of success are well-stacked in your favour and you can manage your trade well.

Yes I agree but then you must have positive expectancy relative to the R/R


Paul

 

[Trader333]

Elefteros,

What was your bias for today on GBP/USD and why did you have that bias ? I will tell what mine was and why later.


Paul

 

[Vaco]

Elefteros,

What was your bias for today on GBP/USD and why did you have that bias ? I will tell what mine was and why later.


Paul

Well after yesterday failed to close higher i was expecting it to go down, thats not to say that i managed to profit from it, i was waiting for it to retest the high of the day before i went short and it never did, the move then came quicker then i was ready for and i was left on the sidelines.

 

[Trader333]

The bias from my perspective was definitely "Short" and this is because the daily TF gave a "Sell pinbar" yesterday and the market opened below the daily Pivot Point today. Based on that I was only looking for "Short" entry trades with a price action trigger at a key level. This has been the only set up I have seen and been interested in all week.

I am not going to say too much more other than the first opportunity occurred at 7am and resulted in a break even trade. Did you notice any other opportunities and if so what were they ?


Paul

 

[Vaco]

the only other place i was looking to go short was after it broke down past h1, but i was waiting for it to touch the h1 line which it did not so i missed that one as well.

After that i felt pretty frustrated at missing the move twice so turned it off and went to do other things to blow off steam. Going to the airport now so not planning on trading again today.

Will post where i think its gonna go tommorow late tonight or early in the morning.

 

[Trader333]

Try having a look at the price action around 8am and tell me what your view is.


Paul

 

[Vaco]

Try having a look at the price action around 8am and tell me what your view is.


Paul

thats the time when i was preping to go short but was waiting for the price to match/make a new high which it just failed to do, i simply didn't pull the trigger and it tore away very soon after creating my first missed trade.

my trade set up would have been as follows i drew the first line and was waiting for price to touch and close below it for me to go short, it failed to touch so i missed my trade,

i should have drawn the second line at the time and traded the set up on that one, but hey you live you learn.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Pink lines were added today...

See how the price on the swing up doesn't really give enough respect to the level highlighted in the blue circle on the right. That's why I was watching on the way down.

This green line we're at now saw a lot of action at the dotcom mess back in 2000 and the subsequent recovery in 2003 and was a failed major continuation consolidation in the upmove after soros tw@ted the £

should be interesting. I vote sideways then 155.

 

[Vaco]

I believe there will be a retest of 1.6000, after that i'm not sure it will either close close to the open or crash lower.