downbytheriver7
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deja vu again - a green US open - will there be another last hour big time sell-off?
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downbytheriver7
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Going to look for a FTSE long entry at about 1 hour pre US close I think today.
downbytheriver7
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downbytheriver7 said:deja vu again - a green US open - will there be another last hour big time sell-off?
looks like its heading the same way! in the red now
davidwiz said:UKHero, thanks for your analysis, as always. I wanted to ask you a couple of questions for some time now about your POM system:
1. Is it a 1 day prediction?
2. Is it based on Open Value of the predicted trading day, or on Close Value of the previous day?
For example, for today it says -5.5, well, if it's based on yesterday's Close Value then it is kind of stating the obvious because FTSE100 was 1.1% down by 10PM yesterday.
Thanks
I wish it was that simple.
As I've mentioned before, the PoM system attributes a plus or minus to known factors. I just add up the figures to obtain a final result.
Here are just some of the factors I use:
FTSE's AND DOW's performance [as a percentage] for the day; past three days; type of market [rising, neutral, falling]; month of the year, day of the month; oil, bank and mining sectors.
Although the list of factors are many [17] - thankfully, and in the majority of cases due to nil effect on the market, the number of factors involved ranges between five and ten per day. Each of the factors has its own mini sliding scale which provides the plus or minus.
Most days the PoM result falls between a plus or minus 1 too 3, but a factor of 4 and beyond [plus or minus] is usually on the ball as to the markets direction. It must be noted that its result is not by how much the market will move but it's most likely direction for the duration of the days trading.
UK
P.s You've given me a thought in regards to creating a weekly and or monthly PoM. The only downside is, it takes several weeks to compile the data and create the spread sheets. We'll see.
The FTSE, Thursday 25th May 2006
Wednesday's results:
Close: 5587, down 91pts [1.61%]
Range: 5678 - 5563.
Last 5 TD: down 1.50%.
OTM: -7.35%.
Another days heavy slide south. The FTSE is the weaker of the three markets and as such will be the last one to climb out of this blood bath.
Wednesday's DOW:
11117, up 18pts [0.17%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.79%.
OTM: -2.18%
Wednesday's S&P 500
1258.56 up 1.99pts [0.16%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.92%.
OTM: -4.01%.
The US markets above have now moved from a falling to a neutral market. Still too early yet to say when it will go from neutral to rising, but it's close at hand.
News items of note:
None at time of writing.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday stated an early dip. Thursday's are not clear but favour a dip before a rise.
The PoM System: +3.75, interpretation: a rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Barclay's [the one to watch]
Cable & Wireless
Friends Provident
Tate & Lyle
Economic Data:
09:30 UK GDP [expected to remain unchanged]
Areas to watch: copper prices. The FTSE can not move forward with any decent gain without the full support from the miners.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE lost most of yesterdays gains today, but that's a blessing in disguise as data states that we have now hit the bottom and as such a turnaround is close at hand. The US markets have had a choppy day adding uncertainty as to their next move, but they too are showing resistance to moving any further south; charts predict a dip before a rise, but the PoM predicts a moderate chance of a rise; company results may just be the catalyst the FTSE needs to move forward, ED is moderate.
Early gut feeling: a rise.
Will I bet? I'm Looking long term and already started a small long. However, reading my own homework with second eyes I may be a bit too premature in this, but we'll see.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Wednesday's results:
Close: 5587, down 91pts [1.61%]
Range: 5678 - 5563.
Last 5 TD: down 1.50%.
OTM: -7.35%.
Another days heavy slide south. The FTSE is the weaker of the three markets and as such will be the last one to climb out of this blood bath.
Wednesday's DOW:
11117, up 18pts [0.17%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.79%.
OTM: -2.18%
Wednesday's S&P 500
1258.56 up 1.99pts [0.16%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.92%.
OTM: -4.01%.
The US markets above have now moved from a falling to a neutral market. Still too early yet to say when it will go from neutral to rising, but it's close at hand.
News items of note:
None at time of writing.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday stated an early dip. Thursday's are not clear but favour a dip before a rise.
The PoM System: +3.75, interpretation: a rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Barclay's [the one to watch]
Cable & Wireless
Friends Provident
Tate & Lyle
Economic Data:
09:30 UK GDP [expected to remain unchanged]
Areas to watch: copper prices. The FTSE can not move forward with any decent gain without the full support from the miners.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE lost most of yesterdays gains today, but that's a blessing in disguise as data states that we have now hit the bottom and as such a turnaround is close at hand. The US markets have had a choppy day adding uncertainty as to their next move, but they too are showing resistance to moving any further south; charts predict a dip before a rise, but the PoM predicts a moderate chance of a rise; company results may just be the catalyst the FTSE needs to move forward, ED is moderate.
Early gut feeling: a rise.
Will I bet? I'm Looking long term and already started a small long. However, reading my own homework with second eyes I may be a bit too premature in this, but we'll see.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
The FTSE, Friday 26th May 2006
Thursday's results:
Close: 5677, up 90pts [1.62%]
Range: 5677 - 5562.
Last 5 TD: up 0.19%.
OTM: -5.73%.
Thursday's DOW:
11211, up 93pts [0.84%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.75%.
OTM: -1.33%
Thursday's S&P 500
1272.88 up 14.32pts [1.14%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.88%.
OTM: -2.87%.
News items of note:
Worth a read: Timesonline: share guru says slide could go on for months - By Patrick Hosking and Gary Duncan
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5-2196025,00.html#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=Business
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday's were not clear but favoured a dip before a rise. Fridays provide no clear direction.
The PoM System: -5.5, interpretation: a drop.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
HSBC Holdings
Ladbrokes
Man Group
Economic Data:
None.
Areas to watch: copper prices and oil.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: all three markets have had a rocket of a day but will it last? Expect the FTSE to open 12-15pts up; charts are unclear but the PoM has an exceptionaly high negative points value towards a drop - we'll see; three heavies reporting whose results may rattle the market, no ED; Bank holiday weekend which historically favours a minor rise.
Early gut feeling: neutral.
Will I bet? I was considering adding to my long but I'm worried about the PoM result being so negative. I'll leave it as it is. Will be watching the market open for additional clues.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Thursday's results:
Close: 5677, up 90pts [1.62%]
Range: 5677 - 5562.
Last 5 TD: up 0.19%.
OTM: -5.73%.
Thursday's DOW:
11211, up 93pts [0.84%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.75%.
OTM: -1.33%
Thursday's S&P 500
1272.88 up 14.32pts [1.14%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.88%.
OTM: -2.87%.
News items of note:
Worth a read: Timesonline: share guru says slide could go on for months - By Patrick Hosking and Gary Duncan
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5-2196025,00.html#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=Business
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday's were not clear but favoured a dip before a rise. Fridays provide no clear direction.
The PoM System: -5.5, interpretation: a drop.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
HSBC Holdings
Ladbrokes
Man Group
Economic Data:
None.
Areas to watch: copper prices and oil.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: all three markets have had a rocket of a day but will it last? Expect the FTSE to open 12-15pts up; charts are unclear but the PoM has an exceptionaly high negative points value towards a drop - we'll see; three heavies reporting whose results may rattle the market, no ED; Bank holiday weekend which historically favours a minor rise.
Early gut feeling: neutral.
Will I bet? I was considering adding to my long but I'm worried about the PoM result being so negative. I'll leave it as it is. Will be watching the market open for additional clues.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
The FTSE, Tuesday 30th May 2006
Last Friday's results:
Close: 5791, up 113pts [2.00%]
Range: 5791 - 5677.
Last 5 TD: up 2.44%.
OTM: -3.73%.
So far the FTSE's dramatic fall appears to be equaly matched by its sudden rise, making it all the more difficult to predict. Market sentiment towards the 6000 mark is evidently strong so go with the flow. Take note: Wednesday is the last trading day of the month and it historically favours a drop followed by a rise on the first day of the month. Lets see.
DOW:
11278, up 67pts [0.60%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.21%.
OTM: -0.73%
S&P 500
1280.16 up 7.28pts [0.57%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.04%.
OTM: -2.30%.
News items of note:
Interesting read:
FACTBOX - Ten facts about the Dow as it turns 110
http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/quo...60526:MTFH01612_2006-05-26_22-40-44_N26206841
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays provided no clear direction. Tuesday's a dip.
The PoM System: -7.5, interpretation: a drop.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
HSBC Holdings
Vodaphone
Economic Data:
None.
Areas to watch: Oil. It' appears to be suffling North again.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: We've had our fall. We've had our rise. Can we have some predictability now! Charts predict a dip while the PoM favours a strong possibility of a drop; companies reporting should be positive and no ED, which in it self normally favours a minor rise; FTSE is expected to open 5-8pts down. I could be wrong when I say 'I'm not expecting any major movement tomorrow.'
Early gut feeling: favour the Short.
Will I bet? I've closed my Long. Will be looking at a Binary short for both tomorrow and Wednesday and a SB Long for Thursday and Friday.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Last Friday's results:
Close: 5791, up 113pts [2.00%]
Range: 5791 - 5677.
Last 5 TD: up 2.44%.
OTM: -3.73%.
So far the FTSE's dramatic fall appears to be equaly matched by its sudden rise, making it all the more difficult to predict. Market sentiment towards the 6000 mark is evidently strong so go with the flow. Take note: Wednesday is the last trading day of the month and it historically favours a drop followed by a rise on the first day of the month. Lets see.
DOW:
11278, up 67pts [0.60%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.21%.
OTM: -0.73%
S&P 500
1280.16 up 7.28pts [0.57%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.04%.
OTM: -2.30%.
News items of note:
Interesting read:
FACTBOX - Ten facts about the Dow as it turns 110
http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/quo...60526:MTFH01612_2006-05-26_22-40-44_N26206841
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays provided no clear direction. Tuesday's a dip.
The PoM System: -7.5, interpretation: a drop.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
HSBC Holdings
Vodaphone
Economic Data:
None.
Areas to watch: Oil. It' appears to be suffling North again.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: We've had our fall. We've had our rise. Can we have some predictability now! Charts predict a dip while the PoM favours a strong possibility of a drop; companies reporting should be positive and no ED, which in it self normally favours a minor rise; FTSE is expected to open 5-8pts down. I could be wrong when I say 'I'm not expecting any major movement tomorrow.'
Early gut feeling: favour the Short.
Will I bet? I've closed my Long. Will be looking at a Binary short for both tomorrow and Wednesday and a SB Long for Thursday and Friday.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
ukhero
When doing the binary's on a range eg up 100-110, or down 50-60 points the closing price is dependent upon the daily closing auction which may be higher or lower than the 4.30 price ( bloomberg price adjusting by about 1636hrs) . In your experience what is the adjusted price difference (estimate) and is the adjusted price usually higher or lower than the 1630 ftse price???
Look forward to the response.
Will I bet? I've closed my Long. Will be looking at a Binary short for both tomorrow and Wednesday and a SB Long for Thursday and Friday.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK[/QUOTE]
When doing the binary's on a range eg up 100-110, or down 50-60 points the closing price is dependent upon the daily closing auction which may be higher or lower than the 4.30 price ( bloomberg price adjusting by about 1636hrs) . In your experience what is the adjusted price difference (estimate) and is the adjusted price usually higher or lower than the 1630 ftse price???
Look forward to the response.
Will I bet? I've closed my Long. Will be looking at a Binary short for both tomorrow and Wednesday and a SB Long for Thursday and Friday.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK[/QUOTE]
The FTSE, Wednesday 31st May 2006
Tuesday's results:
Close: 5652, down 139pts [2.40%] Ouch!
Range: 5791 - 5677.
Last 5 TD: up 2.24%.
OTM: -6.13%.
I asked for predictability and that I wasn't expecting any great movement - and look what happens! I suppose I should be content with my Binary Short today. Note the FTSE is still overly strong over the 5 day point; room for a further drop perhaps!
DOW:
11094, down 184pts [1.63%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.26%.
OTM: -2.36%
S&P 500
1259.88, down 20.28pts [1.58%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.15%.
OTM: -3.88%.
News items of note:
None at time of writing.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's stated a dip. Wednesday's show no signs of the sell-off abating, another dip.
The PoM System: -1.75, interpretation: a drop. Also a 'no bet.'
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Corus [the one to watch]
Scottish & Southern Energy
Economic Data:
09:30 UK Consumer Credit GBPbn [the one to watch, and its not looking good]
10:30 UK Gfk Consumer Confidence May
11:00 UK CBI Distributive trades report
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: it's a sell off, but will it continue tomorrow. Charts and PoM agree with a dip, although weak; company results wont move the market but the ED results will; last day of the month which historically favours a drop.
Early gut feeling: down.
Will I bet? I'll leave it until after the ED results.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Tuesday's results:
Close: 5652, down 139pts [2.40%] Ouch!
Range: 5791 - 5677.
Last 5 TD: up 2.24%.
OTM: -6.13%.
I asked for predictability and that I wasn't expecting any great movement - and look what happens! I suppose I should be content with my Binary Short today. Note the FTSE is still overly strong over the 5 day point; room for a further drop perhaps!
DOW:
11094, down 184pts [1.63%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.26%.
OTM: -2.36%
S&P 500
1259.88, down 20.28pts [1.58%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.15%.
OTM: -3.88%.
News items of note:
None at time of writing.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's stated a dip. Wednesday's show no signs of the sell-off abating, another dip.
The PoM System: -1.75, interpretation: a drop. Also a 'no bet.'
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Corus [the one to watch]
Scottish & Southern Energy
Economic Data:
09:30 UK Consumer Credit GBPbn [the one to watch, and its not looking good]
10:30 UK Gfk Consumer Confidence May
11:00 UK CBI Distributive trades report
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: it's a sell off, but will it continue tomorrow. Charts and PoM agree with a dip, although weak; company results wont move the market but the ED results will; last day of the month which historically favours a drop.
Early gut feeling: down.
Will I bet? I'll leave it until after the ED results.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Hi Saj,
I've been using Binary betting for the past seven months to edge my spread betting, so I guess I'm still a virgin. But of late I've been more inclined to use it - work commitments being what they are.
I'm aware of the 16:32pm shuffle. In my experience, which is limited for Binary, I've noticed that the FTSE is adjusted 1-2pts higher on 1 out of 5 days on average, Fridays and Mondays being the most common.
It's rare that I go a points range myself as the odds are overly stacked against you and therefore unfavourable in the long term. But if you know your eggs - go for it.
Range bets are better suited for days that have little or no major happenings, unlike tomorrow with a strong mixture of ED results. So tomorrow I'll be happy with just the direction.
Good trading.
UK
I've been using Binary betting for the past seven months to edge my spread betting, so I guess I'm still a virgin. But of late I've been more inclined to use it - work commitments being what they are.
I'm aware of the 16:32pm shuffle. In my experience, which is limited for Binary, I've noticed that the FTSE is adjusted 1-2pts higher on 1 out of 5 days on average, Fridays and Mondays being the most common.
It's rare that I go a points range myself as the odds are overly stacked against you and therefore unfavourable in the long term. But if you know your eggs - go for it.
Range bets are better suited for days that have little or no major happenings, unlike tomorrow with a strong mixture of ED results. So tomorrow I'll be happy with just the direction.
Good trading.
UK
UKhero
Thanx for the reponse
Iv noticed only 2day that the adjusted ftse (1636hrs) was actually 9 points higher than the 1630 price. This basically meant that i was out of range and lost my bet!.
Seems they've got this sewn up as its impossible to predict the close according to bloomberg - jus guesswork as even if ur right at 1630hrs...then the adjusted market would mean that ur out of range!
Must be a way round this??...anyone??
I've noticed that the FTSE is adjusted 1-2pts higher on 1 out of 5 days on average, Fridays and Mondays being the most common.
It's rare that I go a points range myself as the odds are overly stacked against you and therefore unfavourable in the long term. But if you know your eggs - go for it.
Range bets are better suited for days that have little or no major happenings, unlike tomorrow with a strong mixture of ED results. So tomorrow I'll be happy with just the direction.
Good trading.
UK[/QUOTE]
Thanx for the reponse
Iv noticed only 2day that the adjusted ftse (1636hrs) was actually 9 points higher than the 1630 price. This basically meant that i was out of range and lost my bet!.
Seems they've got this sewn up as its impossible to predict the close according to bloomberg - jus guesswork as even if ur right at 1630hrs...then the adjusted market would mean that ur out of range!
Must be a way round this??...anyone??
I've noticed that the FTSE is adjusted 1-2pts higher on 1 out of 5 days on average, Fridays and Mondays being the most common.
It's rare that I go a points range myself as the odds are overly stacked against you and therefore unfavourable in the long term. But if you know your eggs - go for it.
Range bets are better suited for days that have little or no major happenings, unlike tomorrow with a strong mixture of ED results. So tomorrow I'll be happy with just the direction.
Good trading.
UK[/QUOTE]
The FTSE, Thursday 1st June 2006
Wednesday's results:
Close: 5724, up 72pts [1.29%]
Range: 5742 - 5591.
Last 5 TD: up 0.89%.
OTM: -4.85%.
DOW:
11168, up 73pts [0.67%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.65%.
OTM: -1.70%
S&P 500
1270.09, up 10.25pts [0.81%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.09%.
OTM: -3.07%.
News items of note:
None at time of writing.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday's showed no signs of the sell-off abating so predicted another dip. Thursday, a rise.
The PoM System: +0.25 interpretation: a weak rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Johnson Matthey
Man Group
United Utilities
Economic Data:
0930 UK PMI Manufacturing.
Busy day in the US which will have an impact on the UK.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the markets are still unsettled and overly sensitive to ED; the US rises have already been factored in so expect the FTSE to open up about evens; charts predict a rise, the PoM agrees although weak; company results should be positive on the whole but the US ED is the one to watch.
Early gut feeling: as it stands, early rise.
Will I bet? Too early to tell yet.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Wednesday's results:
Close: 5724, up 72pts [1.29%]
Range: 5742 - 5591.
Last 5 TD: up 0.89%.
OTM: -4.85%.
DOW:
11168, up 73pts [0.67%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.65%.
OTM: -1.70%
S&P 500
1270.09, up 10.25pts [0.81%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.09%.
OTM: -3.07%.
News items of note:
None at time of writing.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday's showed no signs of the sell-off abating so predicted another dip. Thursday, a rise.
The PoM System: +0.25 interpretation: a weak rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Johnson Matthey
Man Group
United Utilities
Economic Data:
0930 UK PMI Manufacturing.
Busy day in the US which will have an impact on the UK.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the markets are still unsettled and overly sensitive to ED; the US rises have already been factored in so expect the FTSE to open up about evens; charts predict a rise, the PoM agrees although weak; company results should be positive on the whole but the US ED is the one to watch.
Early gut feeling: as it stands, early rise.
Will I bet? Too early to tell yet.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Hi there
Interesting days figures - FTSE still yoyoing about... US Futures pointing up to flat but falling a little at 14:14. FTSE heading back south again - UK do you think the latest stats from the US indicate another rate rsie sooner rather than later?
JSGlenn
Interesting days figures - FTSE still yoyoing about... US Futures pointing up to flat but falling a little at 14:14. FTSE heading back south again - UK do you think the latest stats from the US indicate another rate rsie sooner rather than later?
JSGlenn
Last edited by a moderator:
The FTSE, Friday 2nd June 2006
Thursday's results:
Close: 5749, up 25pts [0.45%]
Range: 5754 - 5680.
Last 5 TD: up 2.96%.
OTM: 0.45%.
DOW:
11260, up 91pts [0.82%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.30%.
OTM: 0.82%
S&P 500
1285.71, up 15.62pts [1.23%].
Last 5 TD: up 2.17%.
OTM: 1.23%.
News items of note:
FT.com 'Oil prices continued to retreat on Thursday following the announcement during the previous session by the US government that it would open talks with Iran if its nuclear enrichment and reprocessing activities were suspended.
In response, Manouchehr Mottaki, Iran’s foreign minister, said Tehran would accept the US offer to hold talks, but rejected Washington’s demand that it suspend enrichment operations as a pre-condition for any dialogue.
IPE Brent for July delivery fell 58 cents to $69.83 a barrel, extending its decline from the previous session while Nymex July West Texas Intermediate dropped 56 cents to $70.73 a barrel in electronic trading.'
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursdays stated a rise. Fridays are undecided.
The PoM System: +2.25 interpretation: a rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
None.
Economic Data:
UK None.
US - Non Farm and factory payrolls.
Areas to watch: Oil and miners.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the bears have returned to the table with confidence; if not for the miners we would have had a 40-70pt rise; expect the FTSE to open up 5-8pts higher; news in general is positive; charts are undecided but the PoM favours the rise; no CR or ED which historically favours a minor rise; the fly in the ointment is the miners, how they fair tomorrow can not be predicted and should be watched closely; the mode in general is positive but there may be a small element of early morning profit taking; another day when the FTSE will be watching the US ED.
Early gut feeling: without Miner and Oil support I see a reversal of today.
Will I bet? Went Long Thursday @ 5701. Will be looking to cancel unless early morning market proves positive. Sometime in the afternoon will be the deciding point of the day, but I'm not sure which way it will go. Historically, June is not a good month to hold a position throughout, it is subject to a lot a bunny hops from day to day and favours the down rather than the up. It is also an ideal month for Binary betting both for direction and points range and from what I've seen so far this year it should also favour the PoM system.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Thursday's results:
Close: 5749, up 25pts [0.45%]
Range: 5754 - 5680.
Last 5 TD: up 2.96%.
OTM: 0.45%.
DOW:
11260, up 91pts [0.82%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.30%.
OTM: 0.82%
S&P 500
1285.71, up 15.62pts [1.23%].
Last 5 TD: up 2.17%.
OTM: 1.23%.
News items of note:
FT.com 'Oil prices continued to retreat on Thursday following the announcement during the previous session by the US government that it would open talks with Iran if its nuclear enrichment and reprocessing activities were suspended.
In response, Manouchehr Mottaki, Iran’s foreign minister, said Tehran would accept the US offer to hold talks, but rejected Washington’s demand that it suspend enrichment operations as a pre-condition for any dialogue.
IPE Brent for July delivery fell 58 cents to $69.83 a barrel, extending its decline from the previous session while Nymex July West Texas Intermediate dropped 56 cents to $70.73 a barrel in electronic trading.'
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursdays stated a rise. Fridays are undecided.
The PoM System: +2.25 interpretation: a rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
None.
Economic Data:
UK None.
US - Non Farm and factory payrolls.
Areas to watch: Oil and miners.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the bears have returned to the table with confidence; if not for the miners we would have had a 40-70pt rise; expect the FTSE to open up 5-8pts higher; news in general is positive; charts are undecided but the PoM favours the rise; no CR or ED which historically favours a minor rise; the fly in the ointment is the miners, how they fair tomorrow can not be predicted and should be watched closely; the mode in general is positive but there may be a small element of early morning profit taking; another day when the FTSE will be watching the US ED.
Early gut feeling: without Miner and Oil support I see a reversal of today.
Will I bet? Went Long Thursday @ 5701. Will be looking to cancel unless early morning market proves positive. Sometime in the afternoon will be the deciding point of the day, but I'm not sure which way it will go. Historically, June is not a good month to hold a position throughout, it is subject to a lot a bunny hops from day to day and favours the down rather than the up. It is also an ideal month for Binary betting both for direction and points range and from what I've seen so far this year it should also favour the PoM system.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
downbytheriver7
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Oh it has been quiet, back now from a break. I am long the NDX still but my general strategy is to see how the markets go today, expecting a rise then a late day reversal/sell off. Now the oversold feeling has been worked off I think we make another possible lower low, so looking to short and and then go long again, buying dips near a lower low but ready to exit if it does go to plan. Have given back quite abit of this years gains but getting them back fairly quickly with the extra volatility. 5800 on the FTSE looks a good first short but missed it this am. and looking for 1580/1600 ont he NDX for a long or 1630 for a short.
Morris said:"Went Long Thursday @ 5701. Will be looking to cancel unless early morning market proves positive."
They allow you to cancel trades ?
Blimey, who is you broker ?
Poor choice of words. CLOSE! CLOSE! I meant close.
UK
downbytheriver7
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Sold mt NDX long @ the 1630 spike , be patient before nibbling either long or short on the FTSE now, looking for a lower high just under 5800 to go short.
The FTSE, Monday 5th June 2006
Friday's results:
Close: 5764, up 14pts [0.26%]
Range: 5802 - 5745.
Last 5 TD: up 1.59%.
OTM: 0.71%.
DOW:
11247, down 12pts [0.11%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.35%.
OTM: 0.71%
S&P 500
1288.21, up 2.51pts [0.20%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.22%.
OTM: 1.43%.
News items of note:
ECB to raise rates as Eurozone recovery gathers pace.
FT.com - 'The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent on Thursday as growth in industrial output strengthens, while the Bank of England will keep rates on hold at 4.5 per cent as recovery in the UK's manufacturing sector remains more tentative.
A 50 basis points increase this week by the ECB is a real possibility according to the Royal Bank of Scotland, which highlights upward pressure on core inflation, a significant increase in consumers' inflation expectations and a clear improvement in manufacturing and services activity in the second quarter.'
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays was undecided. Monday has no clear direction.
The PoM System: -0.40 interpretation: a weak drop.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
BA.
Economic Data:
9:30 PMI
Areas to watch: and miners.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the start of a new week and one which I believe will favour a minor rise; expect the FTSE to open up 8-12pts; charts show no clear direction but the PoM favours a weak southern move; CR and ED are tame.
Early gut feeling: a small rise.
Will I bet? Went Long on Thursday @ 5701 and holding. May add to it depending on how the day unfolds.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Friday's results:
Close: 5764, up 14pts [0.26%]
Range: 5802 - 5745.
Last 5 TD: up 1.59%.
OTM: 0.71%.
DOW:
11247, down 12pts [0.11%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.35%.
OTM: 0.71%
S&P 500
1288.21, up 2.51pts [0.20%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.22%.
OTM: 1.43%.
News items of note:
ECB to raise rates as Eurozone recovery gathers pace.
FT.com - 'The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent on Thursday as growth in industrial output strengthens, while the Bank of England will keep rates on hold at 4.5 per cent as recovery in the UK's manufacturing sector remains more tentative.
A 50 basis points increase this week by the ECB is a real possibility according to the Royal Bank of Scotland, which highlights upward pressure on core inflation, a significant increase in consumers' inflation expectations and a clear improvement in manufacturing and services activity in the second quarter.'
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays was undecided. Monday has no clear direction.
The PoM System: -0.40 interpretation: a weak drop.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
BA.
Economic Data:
9:30 PMI
Areas to watch: and miners.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the start of a new week and one which I believe will favour a minor rise; expect the FTSE to open up 8-12pts; charts show no clear direction but the PoM favours a weak southern move; CR and ED are tame.
Early gut feeling: a small rise.
Will I bet? Went Long on Thursday @ 5701 and holding. May add to it depending on how the day unfolds.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
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