The Boundaries of Randomness - Discussion

[arabianights]

or even untidy.

Yes 1972 was ****ing long, over a year in fact. A gross insult to better years like 1603

 

[N Rothschild]

talking of 1603, did you get to sample the '84 Lafitte i recommended?

 

[Lord Flasheart]

TD, why not have pre-set targets at three diferent levels,it would show how important R/R ratio is

 

[arabianights]

Julian, you thinking of betting on Lib Dems being second in the general election?

The times they are a changing

 

[trader_dante]

Tom, how do you determine how often/when to roll the dice?

Hi Bramble,

I will roll it at 7am tomorrow and then roll again as soon as each position is closed.

 

[trader_dante]

TD, why not have pre-set targets at three diferent levels,it would show how important R/R ratio is

Because that would presume I am willing to stake a position divisible by 3 on pure randomness

I'm going to start off at £1 a tick (minimum size)

I was considering a parameter of rolling a dice to determine risk: 1-6 equating to 1-6% risk taken on that trade.

But then the risk taken starts to have a serious and tangible effect on the outcome so I decided to leave it.

Even though playing with the risk would spice it up a little.

 

[trader_dante]

I hope one of the mods can sort out the typo in the title...thats somewhat embarrassing.

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Cant figure out how to copy and paste so heres an attachment of my position.Ill get all I can on at 80/1while laying off along the way at lower prices, soon I will have a huge bet to nothing. All I need is the sun to down in favour of Lib Dems or some public momentumn and im quids in,win or lose.Well thats the plan

 

[dilesh23]

This reminds me of that book The Dice Man - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia I dont think it ends well

 

[TheBramble]

This reminds me of that book The Dice Man - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia I dont think it ends well

A REALLY good book which I read in my late teens and I blame for my current state...

I always saw that as a big screen production witn Brian Dennehy as the lead. Dunno why...

 

[TheBramble]

Tom, I still think you've got too many variables and not enough controls (any?) to formulate any substantive view on results even if you run this a few million times.

Be interesting all the same....

 

[trader_dante]

Tom, I still think you've got too many variables and not enough controls (any?) to formulate any substantive view on results even if you run this a few million times.

Be interesting all the same....

Can you expand?

 

[Hotch]

Meh?

Is there hypothesis?

Seems a bit dumb to me if only your entries are random, any half decent trader could make it work, all you simple do is enter when the dice tells you to, look at the market, if you think it's going against you, you exit, otherwise you stay in.

Of course random entry can be profitable, any idiot can see that.

"Toss a coin. Long or short. Fixed stop. Fixed target."...Stop trying to be as awesome as me

 

[trader_dante]

Seems a bit dumb to me if only your entries are random, any half decent trader could make it work, all you simple do is enter when the dice tells you to, look at the market, if you think it's going against you, you exit, otherwise you stay in.

Yes, this is what I keep thinking about. You look at the position you are in. If you think it's going against you, you immediately close (fold your hand) and if it begins to go in your favour you hold it.

Thinking of it like that you would imagine that only the completely stupid can fail to make money trading.

So why are the majority of people failing to make money?

Besides, the time variable I have included makes it considerably harder to profit. And even a half decent trader would need some considerable luck.

Random entry CAN be profitable we suppose...unless the dice tells you to load up short on Corn on the Friday close and news of a drought breaks over the weekend?

"Toss a coin. Long or short. Fixed stop. Fixed target."...Stop trying to be as awesome as me

I'm not. I've had this idea for quite a while now and personally don't like what you are doing. No offence meant.

 

[Hotch]

Yes, this is what I keep thinking about. You look at the position you are in. If you think it's going against you, you immediately close (fold your hand) and if it begins to go in your favour you hold it.

Thinking of it like that you would imagine that only the completely stupid can fail to make money trading.

So why are the majority of people failing to make money?

Obvious again...because the majority of people are completely stupid.

Besides, the time variable I have included makes it considerably harder to profit. And even a half decent trader would need some considerable luck.

I don't see why a time variable is going to make it considerably harder. You still only have to decide which way the market is going to move, when do you think it's going to be harder to trade?

I'm not. I've had this idea for quite a while now and personally don't like what you are doing. No offence meant.

...and yet that's exactly what you're proposing to do later on.

Why don't you like it? Dare I play Devil's advocate and say it's because it makes your genuine hard work seem like a waste of time?

EDIT : Quote usage Fail!
EDIT: Fixed

 

[trader_dante]

I don't see why a time variable is going to make it considerably harder. You still only have to decide which way the market is going to move, when do you think it's going to be harder to trade?

It definetly makes it harder. Certain times of day are totally different. If you take a market like the FTSE, even if you had decided it was going to go up, you would have more chance of profit depending on the time of entry...as different times create different variables...there is a difference between entering at 9am than, say, on MOCs where you have the added element of reduced liquidity exaggerating market movements. In addition, buying on the close means you have a period where you can't get out and the market could gap against you. (of course!) At any rate, I don't want to get too hung up on it here, I'll trade it and see what happens.

Why don't you like it? Dare I play Devil's advocate and say it's because it makes your genuine hard work seem like a waste of time?

No, it's because (and correct me if I'm wrong) it seemed like a waste of time:

From what I thought you were doing, you were trading one market (?), using fixed stops and targets (which is meaningless) and using much bigger stops than targets (ridiculous)...I might have got it wrong though. And many apologies if I have.

 

[Hotch]

Not familiar with those markets at all, never traded EJ or USD/CHF before. Was trading with a fixed time, fixed stop, and fixed target. The whole point of the exercise was to show that the (ridiculously) large stops and (ridiculously) small targets could make money, if that didn't come across I get why you thought it was a wasted exercise, though it did earn me a bit of beer money. Don't see the difference between that and what you were thinking you might do in the future on the first post (except maybe you won't be using a fixed time).

Re: different times.

Of course the market is different at different times of day, but it's still a chart, if you think the FTSE is going up today, but enter at 2pm, of course you have to play it differently to had you entered at 10 am. Everyone is different, but I would think most of the time, I would trade a chart roughly the same way whatever the time at the bottom of the chart. Obviously there would be a difference, but when you're doing random entries, it's such a minor detail in comparison(at least the way I trade).

Anyway, good luck with it, when you get more abstract will be interesting what you base your ideas on, mine were based on a bit of maths, but I am under the impression you have a different approach.

 

[trader_dante]

Not familiar with those markets at all, never traded EJ or USD/CHF before. Was trading with a fixed time, fixed stop, and fixed target. The whole point of the exercise was to show that the (ridiculously) large stops and (ridiculously) small targets could make money...

Ah, I didn't realise you traded markets you weren't familiar with. That's cool. Sorry.

The point I am getting at though was with reference to the large stops and small targets - was the fact that you made profit down to "pure chance" (the outcome of the coin toss) or was it down to the fact that price will reach X/10 before it reaches X?

I think Spanish89 showed us that you can make money - infact about £30,000 (if I remember correctly) when you use big stops and small(er) targets. And some might argue, he knew about as much as Crude Oil as a coin does anyway

Anyway, thanks for your encouragement.

Just wanted to do this as a bit of a fun - not really striving to prove anything in concrete, scientific terms.

I wanted to write something along the lines of "Confessions of a Local"...but to spice it up a little, throw in the random nature of the dice.

 

[TheBramble]

Can you expand?

Sure. I don't know how you're going to be able to split out the results from your expirement in a way that will be statistically meaningful.

 

[rawrschach]

Depends on how many trades he makes. Seeing as it's one trade a day though and 72 outcomes, you have a point.

I suck at probability so if my math is wrong ignore it.