Skill Leverage
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Google 'variance' and read more about probability theory if you do not know why this is true
i dont see why some peiople try and blame failure in forex trading on forex itself.
If you're talking consistently profitable as in, every day, then probably you are right, but when you take it to months and years, it is very possible to be very consistent.
I was 'consistently' profitable in my first nine months of trading (said in inverted commas because I don't feel nine months is anywhere near enough time to statistically differ between a lucky run and good trading).
If you were scalping or even daytrading 9 months would definitely be enough. If you're only entering trades once or twice a month, that's a different matter.
I'd be surprised if there were more than 12 - maximum (and 12's pushing it. I don't know who these 12 are or who they are not) T2W members present or past who make consistent profits from trading. (and i'm not 1 of the 12 - yet )
We all know the theory - R:R, risk per trade, discipline, waiting, patience, following the plan etc., we all talk the talk, but when it comes down to it, i dont think anyone is meant to succeed at trading.
We can all rationalise why a trade failed or succeeded. We may adjust our entry requirements as a result, only to see the new requirements fail, and the old requirements lead to a successful trade.
The point is, gaining consistency is virtually impossible, as price is far from consistent.
Trying to trade, watching the candles is like trying to capture an unnobtainable object. It is impossible as you are always in its shadow, one step behind. Ever tried catching a fly in your hand......its next to impossible as the moment it sees your shadow, its gone......
As for R:R - use S/R as targets - sure.........But how longs a piece of string??? knowone knows until after its been unwound....
I'd imagine the profitable, consistent traders are busy concentrating on what they are supposed to be doing and not on this forum.
I've hit the concrete wall/paper floor after some great scalping returns which I am struggling to repeat. Im going to withdraw funds and see if that helps though im taking a break until after xmas.
Exactly.
for me to do this - you need a firm grasp of S/R.
With all the dazzling mutli-coloured indicator overlays etc. that i see posted here, usually accompnaied by a lack of consideration and understanding of S/R, and i find it hard to see how these guys can profit.
I understand S/R S&D inside out, and see it on each one of my charts, yet still struggle..........
Mind your own f'in business!
twas meant to be like an AA meeting!
You definetly have to know when NOT to trade.
You do this by examining what links your losing trades.
If you realise for example that every losing trade you take are ones that are entered after 5pm then you simply don't trade after 5pm!
This is why keeping a journal of your trades or keeping track by some other means is so essential.
The guy that I was talking about that is so consistent admitted to me that he has difficulty in the afternoons. So what does he do? He simply makes money in the morning and then goes home.
One thing I greatly respected in one of Spanishs' posts was where he realised that the market was unlikely to make a decisive mood and rather than trying to get involved went off and did something else (despite his need to make money to pay for his rent - a ludicrous situation but thats another story lol)
I've lately realised that the vast majority of my trades aren't getting as far as their first target before reversing. It seems like for the last couple of months every trade I take gets up anywhere between 15 - 80 ticks/pips and then reverses on me and stops me out. Now getting up that much on a trade may sound good to some people but with my style of trading it affects my overall profitability.
So what I have done is taken action.
I've requested they put me back on the simulator at work to ride out the storm but also so I can keep my mind active and increase my experience without risking real money and judge when market conditions are better for my style of trading.
At the same time I've pulled all the money out of my personal accounts which means I have nothing in there to trade with. If I see something that looks unmissable (I am eyeing oil and waiting for a test of $41) then I have to go to the bother of transferring funds in to take it.
This stops overtrading where you keep taking all setups (even the average ones) in the hope that things will suddenly come good.
If you are in a hole, stop digging and assess the surroundings.
The big free lunch in finance is diversification.
Run several systems/methods concurrently and they can all have the same volatility (inconsistency) and yet as a whole produce a much smoother equity curve.
Just a thought.
Joey