swingin' the ftse: 2008

[tomorton]

The gap is there - about 33pts.
I have placed a buy order at Monday's low, will close this by 4:30 if triggered (80-20).
If we close above yesterday's close, I will go long this evening (Whiplash).
If the gap remains at today's close, I will place a buy order just above today's high (3-day unfilled gap reversal).
Tight stops must be the order of the day regardless.

 

[tomorton]

Well, nothing happened, the 80-20 buy was not reached and the Whiplash pattern did not complete (we needed to close above 50% of today's range) so I have cancelled this morning's buy order and placed another buy lower, just above today's high, to catch the gap filling: this will be valid for next 3 sessions.

Still a possibility of a short on the Nasdaq if it rises on today's open but stays below the 14MA - but not looking highly likely right now.

 

[spreadbetit]

so what are ppls thoughts on the movement today. DOW didn't do too bad yesterday. what is going to happen to the FTSE 100 today. I think I might still go short.

Short @ 5105, sl 5155

 

[tomorton]

The trend is firmly downwards but I'm flat right now and waiting for a bounce so I can take a short-term long position, then get on board short as the main trend resumes: I have a buy order in place above Tuesday's high. Technically, I have no short entry signal until we bounce so for me, entering short here would be chasing the price.

I expect the bounce when (not if) Congress passes TARA and this might be expected, not before the presidential candidates etc. have been all over this in Washington and made a joint address to the US voters, but surely not later than Monday or Tuesday. Meantime, there is no great reason to either buy or sell. TARA could generate an enormous bounce, taking out all the bears' stops, possibly exceeding last Friday's rise, and could even reverse the charts into an uptrend.

 

[tomorton]

Tuesday's long triggered late in the session. Hope volatility doesn't shake me out overnight - nice (and looking more likely) if TARA is passed as early as tomorrow - Gordon Brown wouldn't be invited to Washington to see the President suffer a defeat and I suspect everyone considers it a done deal bar the small print.

 

[tomorton]

Roller-coaster market.
Long stopped out for small profit as worries outweight hopes for US TARA package. Sell order placed at US close triggered this am and quickly closed for good profit - prefer to be flat in advance of news of this magnitude.

 

[tomorton]

Still flat, but buy order placed above yesterday's high and sell below yesterday's low. If reaction to news is big one or the other should catch the surge. Wouldn't normally place or recommend opposing orders like this but as it happens I have both buy and sell signals from TA, and we're not normally telegraphed to expect the most important market news.

 

[tomorton]

Opposing orders outside Thursday's range remain in place. I believe the TARA decision will be made by Tuesday and the market will react violently one way or the other.

On of Thursday's opposing signals came good - shuttle trade short at the close would have been profitable to yesterday's close, I was too cautious because of TARA, should always take the signal when it comes. I did take the long, signalled by Thursday's key reversal pattern, but this brought only small profit. Drat!

Never mind, Singapore Grand Prix should brighten the weekend.

 

[tomorton]

Small gap unfilled between today's high and Friday's low, so buy order just above high. Usually this order would remain valid three sessions, until Thursday night, but surely must be filled by then?

 

[Geofract]

Good day for me as a beginner. went short below Fridays low, and closed for +92 points. Didn't have time to watch the charts, and was expecting a rebound, hence close.

Should have stuck with it, FT was down to 4575 (after hours) according to IG when I last looked. Hindsight is a wonderful thing

Not sure about that gap being filled that you mentioned Tomorton. However, if TARA is approved, maybe we will see a week like the 14th Sept where we had 100% retracement of the whole weeks incredible moves. Maybe. Seems anything is possible right now.

Ollie

Edit, just saw news, rescue package voted against! Finanical meltdown anyone? Or should I say, a bit more meltdown, to add to the existing meltdown. Meltdown Monday

 

[tomorton]

No, the gap may not fill - the gap last Monday to last Tuesday didn't fill either. Its a high success probability, low failure risk trade when it occurs. If it doesn't occur, I don't care, I wait for the market to come to me.

 

[yvij]

Is FTSE good buy at this price (4564).

I have buy signal which should see strong bounce tomorrow and also big gap to be filled.

 

[tomorton]

I see a small gap above today's range but no buy signal yet. Then again, I am only looking at EOD prices, perhaps you are working off intra-day patterns - what buy signal do you see?

 

[yvij]

I see a small gap above today's range but no buy signal yet. Then again, I am only looking at EOD prices, perhaps you are working off intra-day patterns - what buy signal do you see?

Stochastic indicated buy at close around 4800.

We now have fallen further below in futures so expect strong dead cat bounce to test 4800.

 

[tomorton]

Have given myself a good kicking - as the FTSE fell towards my sell order level below Thursday's low yesterday I cancelled it - thnking the US resuce package could not fail - and it did. As I always say to myself (but sometimes don't listen), trade what you see , not what you think.

 

[tomorton]

Long FTSE100 (Whiplash).
Sell order will go in on US close below market in case we drop overnight (Shuttle).
Buy order remains in place above yesterday's high (3-day unfilled gap).

 

[tomorton]

Whiplash long brought OK profit and closed last night.
Shuttle short was alwasy more risky, stopped out for small loss.
Buy order remains in place above Monday's high.
No chance to trade through screens later but if around I would have put in another shuttle short order asap after the UK close.

 

[tomorton]

Ouch! Long order triggered and stopped out. The short would have been a very good play.
Oh well, tomorrow's another day. Not out of the game yet.

 

[tomorton]

Nice afternoon in the end. Had to move my orders down, the long to be hit and the short to be not hit, but got in long just after 3 and had a nice run up from there. Now flat again. Times like these are tests of nerve and patience.

As we have retraced towards the 14MA but not closed above, I will enter a (conservative) sell order below today's close when the SB books close for the weekend. Even today's action looks weak on the swing chart, although, OK, its only been a 2-day rally from 30/09. A weak close in the US might prompt me to increase the size of the order.

Other actions will await the open on Monday.

Have a good weekend.

 

[tomorton]

There it is - very, very weak close from the US. I would love to have a healthy sell order in place ready for Monday but am just in process of arranging another SB account - seems that Fins did something to their platform after the close yesterday which means IE browser users can't access it.