Swing trades

[piker]

Timsk, I'll repost tomorrow, cheers

 

[GladiatorX]

A margin call, unless you allocate 50000 per contract or no leverage. Black Monday anyone? Risk of financial ruin outweighs any statistical average, you can't exclude random events

Shorting over weekends is MORE risky than long... It just is.

With shorting, you can have unlimited loss (Forget margin call) Unlimited loss.
With long, you have limited loss.

You won't get a margin call over the weekend... They can't close your position, nor can you. If it goes up 10,000% then it goes up 10,000% with you short... No amount of margin calls can stop this reality.

 

[piker]

We aren't talking about a stock,Stock index can fall a lot more dramatically than rise

 

[GladiatorX]

We aren't talking about a stock,Stock index can fall a lot more dramatically than rise

WRONG.

Stock index can RISE ALOT MORE dramatically THAN IT CAN FALL dramatically.

FACT. Its literally a fact. Its not an arguement, its 100% Factual.


The stock index can only fall to 0 in one second, whereas it can rise to infinity in one second.

Overall; In terms of the risk; Shorting has the possibility of rising 10,000% in one night, whereas falling only 100% - The more dramatic option being the short.



Sorry; I'm just being stubborn, i understand what your saying but just manipulating your words.

Historically, markets react QUICKLY to bad news overnight, causing large down moves. Whereas in comparison, historically markets react SLOWLY to good news overnight... Because ' Panic and fear' is greater than greed.
At the same time; Factually, shorting has more inherent risk than going long; In terms of history however, There have been more abrupt down moves caused by 'panic/bad news' than their have been abrupt up moves caused by 'greed/good news'

At the same time, i still think you should hold both Long/shorts over the weekend

 

[pelzar]

Regardless of whether going short or long is more risky how can being short have unlimited risk? If it goes to Zero that is it!! Where as no market has a cap to the up side!!!

 

[piker]

Look, if NYSE is blown up over the weekend, where do you expect s&p to be trading Monday morning?actually it won't be trading at all for that matter, now what would it take for s&p to add 10% come next Monday? I am not talking about historical stats of average advance vs decline, you can't seem to grasp it.

 

[GladiatorX]

Regardless of whether going short or long is more risky how can being short have unlimited risk? If it goes to Zero that is it!! Where as no market has a cap to the up side!!!

Exactly.... You pretty much just contradicted yourself while proving my point.

 

[GladiatorX]

Look, if NYSE is blown up over the weekend, where do you expect s&p to be trading Monday morning?actually it won't be trading at all for that matter, now what would it take for s&p to add 10% come next Monday? I am not talking about historical stats of average advance vs decline, you can't seem to grasp it.

No i totally understand your point; The main problem was we were aruging DIFFERENT POINTS and i was in an arguementative mood. I understand and respect and agree with what you were saying.

Sorry for the confusion x

 

[piker]

No i totally understand your point; The main problem was we were aruging DIFFERENT POINTS and i was in an arguementative mood. I understand and respect and agree with what you were saying.

Sorry for the confusion x

 

[robster970]

The problem I have with trading of a level rather than price action behaviour is that price tends to jerk around and how does one establish if it will break or bounce?

Did you read my large post to you when you asked me whether I would do a live trade? The answer is already in there but to summarise:

a) Screen time and experience
b) Understanding fundamentals & sentiment
c) Reacting very quickly when you are wrong by not being wedded to a trade
d) Planning for things going right and going wrong.
e) Picking the right levels to trade (not noise or intermediates)

You can still make money from the bounce or the breakout if you're prepared for either eventuality.

 

[piker]

Did you read my large post to you when you asked me whether I would do a live trade? The answer is already in there but to summarise:

a) Screen time and experience
b) Understanding fundamentals & sentiment
c) Reacting very quickly when you are wrong by not being wedded to a trade
d) Planning for things going right and going wrong.
e) Picking the right levels to trade (not noise or intermediates)

You can still make money from the bounce or the breakout if you're prepared for either eventuality.

I am sure I will get flames for it, but here we go. Order flow is random, it's been proven, so what you are trading is randomness when price hits a level. So your edge will have to be within money management, as you will struggle to assertain situation in time. Example, price hits 1000, your experience tells you to go long, a second later you get 3000 contracts filled at 997.

 

[GladiatorX]

I am sure I will get flames for it, but here we go. Order flow is random, it's been proven, so what you are trading is randomness when price hits a level. So your edge will have to be within money management, as you will struggle to assertain situation in time. Example, price hits 1000, your experience tells you to go long, a second later you get 3000 contracts filled at 997.

How can money management give you an edge ? Thats impossible.

 

[Yamato]

Say you double your investment every 1000 dollars you lose, and you have unlimited capital. Wouldn't that make money and wouldn't that be part of money management?

 

[virtuos0]

GladiatorX, Rob, et al. This is probably dawning on you, as it dawned on me a while ago, but I feel that I should point it out:

You are all wasting your time with this guy.

 

[virtuos0]

Say you double your investment every 1000 dollars you lose, and you have unlimited capital. Wouldn't that make money and wouldn't that be part of money management?

Yeh, a Martingale strategy makes money under the assumption that you have infinite capital. But as that is an impossibility, then no it is not part of money management.

 

[inzider]

How can money management give you an edge ? Thats impossible.

What!? Impossible?!?

This is an average game.... do I have to say more?!?

If you don't have money management rules, in times, on average you will be hit so hard that you wont get back up. Dicipline is the key in trading, so how can money management can't give you a edge....

I suggest you to read some about kelly formula and how a roulettes player or black jack one can't win whitout MM. FX give you better odds (around 1 on 2 witch is REALLY GOOD), but if its the only way to win in a casino, this won't hurt in trading.

Do as you feel, this is only a 2 cents from me.
Take care!

 

[inzider]

I am sure I will get flames for it, but here we go. Order flow is random, it's been proven, so what you are trading is randomness when price hits a level. So your edge will have to be within money management, as you will struggle to assertain situation in time. Example, price hits 1000, your experience tells you to go long, a second later you get 3000 contracts filled at 997.

I know a guy who made 100% on 5.4k from last saterday to wednesday. He never invested on Fx before.... if you don't beleive me I don't care.

He don't focus much on entry because he just place order at each and any pips available on that chart focusing on some level,yes... any dam pips... Anyway, all he care about is the free margin, this way he can put more orders... Muhaha!

So, money management is not an edge?!?... LOL

 

[virtuos0]

What!? Impossible?!?

This is an average game.... do I have to say more?!?

If you don't have money management rules, in times, on average you will be hit so hard that you wont get back up. Dicipline is the key in trading, so how can money management can't give you a edge....

I suggest you to read some about kelly formula and how a roulettes player or black jack one can't win whitout MM. FX give you better odds (around 1 on 2 witch is REALLY GOOD), but if its the only way to win in a casino, this won't hurt in trading.

Do as you feel, this is only a 2 cents from me.
Take care!

Risk management is essential, no one is arguing that. But what Gladiator said is that it gives you no EDGE. You cannot beat the market using risk management/money management in the long term. An edge over the market lies in three broad areas, these being exploiting a repeating pattern, having knowledge others don't, or being quicker than others.

 

[virtuos0]

I know a guy who made 100% on 5.4k from last saterday to wednesday. He never invested on Fx before.... if you don't beleive me I don't care.

He don't focus much on entry because he just place order at each and any pips available on that chart focusing on some level,yes... any dam pips... Anyway, all he care about is the free margin, this way he can put more orders... Muhaha!

So, money management is not an edge?!?... LOL

Your post is just plain stupid, but I'll humour you anyway.

Your friend is what we call in market terminology a 'lucky fool'. By the way you describe his gains and his methodology two things are clear, he is massively overleveraged and he has absolutely no clue how to trade.

If he continues to trade in this way he will lose every penny in the very near future.

 

[GladiatorX]

Risk management is essential, no one is arguing that. But what Gladiator said is that it gives you no EDGE. You cannot beat the market using risk management/money management in the long term. An edge over the market lies in three broad areas, these being exploiting a repeatable pattern, having knowledge others don't, or being quicker than others.

Yeah; Money management may be neccesarily to effectively execute an edge; But it is not the edge itself.

Similar to how you can't trade online without a computer. The computer isn't the edge though.