Swing trades

[piker]

Long EUR/USD 1.4734, stop 1.4660

Target 1.5+

Reason - Price on rising trend line, 4 hour chart provided a buy signal

Stopped -74 pips

 

[D70]

1. Which markets will you focus on and why?
2. Which instruments will you trade and why?

Anything that trends, has sufficient liquidity, can be traded 24 hours

3. Which timeframes will you use and why? (e.g. daily TF to determine primary trend, key S&R areas etc., and hourly TF for entry and stops etc.)

Trend is monitored on weekly & daily charts via trend lines. Horizontal support & resistance levels are taken from weekly chart. Entries are taken from 4 hour chart in form of a divergence in line with the main trend (weekly is in uptrend I will wait for strengthening price action on 4 hour chart). I will be more strict on entries as I have a tendency to enter after an oscillator goes green, but not the price. So from now on I am planning to wait for oscillator to put in a signal and price to break current reaction level on 4 hour chart. Stops, that is what I really need help with, are currently used from current reaction levels, as evident from current posted trade's charts.

4. Which is your basic objective, i.e. are you wanting to trade breakouts, retracements or reversals?

I plan to trade with a predominant trend on weekly chart. I will wait for a pullback & enter using 4 hour chart. I plan to do this until the time a major level is broken on weekly chart.

5. What is your trade set up - as opposed to the trade entry trigger? E.g. price breaks out above / below yesterday's high / low, then pulls back to it and finds support / resistance.

Example: Weekly in uptrend.

a) Price pulls back to either a horizontal or diagonal support zone;
b) MACD on 4 hour chart starts to rise creating narrower gaps between the average & signal, a typical example of pattern I am looking for is in the gold's chart that I posted. It signals entry when historgam registers 1 green bar above centre line.
c) Price on 4 hour chart either diverges from MACD or puts in a multi bottom or puts in a series of higher lows higher highs;
d) Price on 4 hour chart breaks current reaction high.

If and when above conditions are met I go long.

First thing that jumps out for me is that you are not paying enough attention to levels in the market. They are absolutely key. Get daily and weekly charts up of eurusd / spx and delete everything. Then tell me what you see........

.......... levels right?? Key levels.

Post a chart if you can.

 

[timsk]

@Timsk - by demonstrating how we all differ in trading styles yet all rely on an incorporation of fundamentals maybe Piker will then start to evolve with his plan, whatever it may be.

Hi robster,
I quite agree that learning how other traders go about things is of immense value, but piker's got the whole of the rest of T2W to examine all those styles and strategies etc. This thread is about him and his trading, not about mine, yours or Gladiator's etc. If you'd care to start your own journal(s) or post your ideas to the appropriate forum / thread, doubtless I, piker and others will beat a path to your door to read them and profit from them.

 

[piker]

long gold spot 1130.7, stop 1115.

Target 1200+

reason - gold still in longer term bull trend, 4 hour chart provided a buy signal via a triple divergence/wedge.

Will be posting blotters at the end of trades.

-$15.7 stopped

 

[piker]

First thing that jumps out for me is that you are not paying enough attention to levels in the market. They are absolutely key. Get daily and weekly charts up of eurusd / spx and delete everything. Then tell me what you see........

.......... levels right?? Key levels.

Post a chart if you can.

daily and weekly spx & eur

 

[D70]

Thanks for posting those daily and weekly charts.

Notice how you cant really see much?

You havent got enough time on the x-axis. You need to zoom out, get a good 5 years or longer (preferably). Then the levels will start to show themselves because if you are looking at a weekly chart you need to look at more than just the last 52 weeks to get the story.

 

[piker]

Thanks for posting those daily and weekly charts.

Notice how you cant really see much?

You havent got enough time on the x-axis. You need to zoom out, get a good 5 years or longer (preferably). Then the levels will start to show themselves because if you are looking at a weekly chart you need to look at more than just the last 52 weeks to get the story.

Ok, here is weekly 5 year span

 

[piker]

Quick review of failed trades. Out of 3 trades only S&P remains open, one of the main reasons why gold & euro failed is because I failed to wait for price confirmation, price did not break & close above current resistance levels on 4 hour chart. From now on I will not make a move until price confirms. S&P did break above resistance on 4 hour chart & it is still open.

 

[D70]

Hi Mr Piker,
Are you getting what I am saying about "seeing" the picture?
And one further thing to add, just as a thought...

If you buy something at 1000 with a stop of 990 say, would you rather that than buying at 1015 and having a stop at 990?? "Confirmation" isnt such a good thing sometimes.......

 

[piker]

Hi Mr Piker,
Are you getting what I am saying about "seeing" the picture?
And one further thing to add, just as a thought...

If you buy something at 1000 with a stop of 990 say, would you rather that than buying at 1015 and having a stop at 990?? "Confirmation" isnt such a good thing sometimes.......

Buying after confirmation obviously limits profits andincreases potential loss

 

[D70]

Buying after confirmation obviously limits profits andincreases potential loss

Yup, it is personal preference. All I am saying is - be careful of those blanket statements because there are times when buying AT the price are valid, no need to wait for confirmation.

I will post a chart later showing what i mean by a chart history, yours dont give me a good picture at all. You need to know where you are in the big picture.

 

[Black Swan]

Stopped -74 pips

tbh cannot understand why you had such a big stop, or let the trade run that far down before you shut it down and went short... surely, once you saw the half hour candle, 1:30 - 2:00 close with a unit fall of circa 50 you knew you needed to shut it down and go short... ?

 

[piker]

tbh cannot understand why you had such a big stop, or let the trade run that far down before you shut it down and went short... surely, once you saw the half hour candle, 1:30 - 2:00 close with a unit fall of circa 50 you knew you needed to shut it down and go short... ?

Bigger targets require bigger stops, so far that is what I believe to be the right way

 

[robster970]

Bigger targets require bigger stops, so far that is what I believe to be the right way

No, bigger targets means better timed entries with a risk commensurate with your account size. It's one aspect of why D70 is trying to get you to look at key levels.

You don't need huge stops to take big profits relative to your account. Being selective on when you trade and what you trade is. As I said earlier before Gladys and I derailed, fundamental views will compound honed technical skills and improve your trade planning.

 

[Black Swan]

Bigger targets require bigger stops, so far that is what I believe to be the right way

Just think about that on the basis that (according to one of your original posts) it isn't working for you and hasn't thus far...so what you "believe to be the right way" and your pre-conceptions of what is right is...well...you fill in the rest...

IMO this is how this thread should develop from now on, you use it as a journal to shout/throw up your trades, the way Travis does and see if anyone offers up help. My concern (for you) is that you need a complete de-programming...religous cult style...

 

[piker]

No, bigger targets means better timed entries with a risk commensurate with your account size. It's one aspect of why D70 is trying to get you to look at key levels.

You don't need huge stops to take big profits relative to your account. Being selective on when you trade and what you trade is. As I said earlier before Gladys and I derailed, fundamental views will compound honed technical skills and improve your trade planning.

care to demonstrate live how you would nail a big target with a tight stop? Not saying it can't be done.

 

[piker]

Just think about that on the basis that (according to one of your original posts) it isn't working for you and hasn't thus far...so what you "believe to be the right way" and your pre-conceptions of what is right is...well...you fill in the rest...

IMO this is how this thread should develop from now on, you use it as a journal to shout/throw up your trades, the way Travis does and see if anyone offers up help. My concern (for you) is that you need a complete de-programming...religous cult style...

it's hard to find people on net that can actually show a consistent equity curve, so why would I scrap what I am trying to better, in exchange for what?

 

[robster970]

care to demonstrate live how you would nail a big target with a tight stop? Not saying it can't be done.

You'll be waiting around for a while but I'll tell you what I will do next week if the situation occurs.

Incidentally, this was one of the last aspects of trade execution to fall into place for me. I also recognise the scepticism because I just couldn't see how it could be done without high risk wrt to your account.

I'll look at a 1d chart for E-mini March '10 contract and decide whether it is still likely to be rangebound between 1080 and 1114. If price get's close to either of these then right now I will play a reversal off them putting 4pts at risk. As you can see, this channel is 34pts wide. The number of contracts I will get in with is dependent on how volatile it is when it hits these levels which will determine my stop, the max being 4pts away. I let the 1d decide whether I should come out or not along with my view of market sentiment.

If the levels are breached then I have to decide whether to then play a breakout or treat it as a fakeout. I decide this based upon trading volume but most importantly the mood and sentiment of the market that day. If it's a fakeout then I have taken a small loss on an initial reversal, small loss on a fakeout but are then in for a longish ride in the channel. These losses are typically 2pts each because I can generally tell due to huge amounts of screen time.

So for the reversal right now, I have a max 8pt exposure for a round trip to get in on a trade that can travel 34pts. This is 2 losers, 1 winner (33% hit rate) and R:R of 8 for this channel but realistically 4ish depending on how ballsy you are.

If it's a breakout then I set a 4pt stop for this, let it rattle around and then enjoy the ride until the 1d takes me out.

I WILL NOT TAKE ANY OTHER TRADES OTHER THAN AN OPPORTUNIST GAP PLAY IF ONE HAPPENS.

I decide the mood and sentiment for that day by watching what goes on on the Nikkei and FTSE and how it reacts to world news, events, etc. What gives me an edge is (a) the speed which I get out of losers to minimise losses and (b) my patience in letting the winners run until the market takes me out, rather than me taking myself out.

 

[GladiatorX]

it's hard to find people on net that can actually show a consistent equity curve, so why would I scrap what I am trying to better, in exchange for what?

In exchange for potential profits, rather than wasted time. Through attempting to follow the advice of those with the nice equity charts

 

[D70]

Hi Mr Piker,
So about these levels (which I think your trading does not pay attention to).
Check out this chart.

What do you see?