Swing-day trading US stocks

[xpertstocktrader]

Watch list for 10/10/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

CBL long above: 42.50, stop under: 42.00, target: 44.00 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10102006cbl.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 02, 2006

FOXH long above: 35.15, stop under: 34.00, target: 40 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10102006foxh.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 02, 2006


Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

HOT long above: 61.00, stop under: 60.24, target: 62.50-63 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10102006hot.jpg

SCSC long above: 32.40, stop under: 31.75, target: 34 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10102006dia.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 26, 2006

USB long above: 33.75, stop under: 33.60, target: 34.50-35 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10102006usb.jpg
Last/next earning date: July 18, 2006


SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
SWIR short under: 11.35, stop above: 11.65, target: 10 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10102006swir.jpg
Last/next earning date: July 27, 2006


Watch ideas:
Long: PHRM, ETR


DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 10/11/2006

Good day!
Another range day and the plot thicken. The few pennies to a new high did nothing to change my opinion. Expectations and the whole commentary are same as yesterday. I am worried that the longer the indices stay in such a tight range the higher probability of a false breakout occurring. That means I will wait for the main breakout and then go with continuation patterns. I continue to trade with smaller risk and try to avoid a false breakout until we have a clear direction.

My bias for today remains bullish but the difference is I will wait to see the main move first. I will maintain my risk level at 50 percent until there is a clear direction.

With DNA and AA reporting earnings after the close we began earnings season. Holding positions into earnings can be quite risky. Both companies are trading sharply lower after poor results. This is also the period of time companies preannounce. Note a stock we traded yesterday, LM. It preannounces after the bell and is now trading 10 points lower than the close. As a trader these are variables that must be considered.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10112006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10112006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10112006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10112006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10112006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10112006dia60.jpg

Watch list for 10/11/2006

LONG:
Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
WLT long above: 44.00, stop under: 43.50, target: 45-46 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10112006wlt.jpg

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Watch list for 10/12/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
AMR long above: 25.46, stop under: 24.70, target: 27-28 DT-ST
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10122006amr.jpg
Last/next earning date: July 19, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
ROK long above: 60.24, stop under: 59.50 (59.85), target: 62.50 DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10122006rok.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 23, 2006


SHORT:

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
NTES short under: 16.50 stop above: 16.75, target: 16 (15) areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10122006ntes.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 14, 2006


Watch ideas:

Long: SAFC, FOXH, TSO
Short: UCBH, XMSR

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 10/13/2006


Good day!
We finally got our move out of consolidation. The QQQQ finally broke out of its 15 min triangle around 2:00pm following the higher highs on the SPY and the DIA.

What now? The QQQQ has come to its weekly resistance area "around" the 42 to 43 area. So we don't know where this move will finish. The indices finished the day very strong and on daily chart they have enough room for another up day. You can see that on daily charts and I will look for an equal move to the resistance area combined with whole number resistance area. The volume yesterday's breakout was strong and with the charts pointing up I will expect another strong day. We must pay attention to other variables. For instance yesterday "the beige book" came out around 2:00pm and it fueled the rally in the QQQQ. The QQQQ still have room for the 15 min equal to resistance area but we are also in the earnings season. That can always change our expectations so it is important to use caution

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006qqqq15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006spy60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006spy15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006dia60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006dia15.jpg


I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic


Watch list for 10/13/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

SYKE long above: 20.70, stop under: 19.60, target: open DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006syke.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 07, 2006


Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

SAFC long above: 61.00, stop under: 60.75, target: 60 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006safc.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 31, 2006

SPG long above: 94.70, stop under: 94.20, target: open (96 areas) DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006spg.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 30, 2006

Watch ideas:
Long: USB, CTDC
Short: NTES

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

 

[xpertstocktrader]

SCSS example

SCSS is a good example what we had the last week. That was a call from the 10/09/2006 above 23.14 with the stop under the 22.75. Target for the day traders was at the $24 areas and for the swing traders at the $25 areas (Expected that won’t see 25 areas first day).

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10092006scss.jpg

On the 60 min chart you can see nice triangle consolidation after the move up from the 22 areas (first blue line). That triangle pattern gave us a nice risk reward possibility and that is key for my style. Without the good risk reward possibilities I don’t want take any trade, it is same for the any time frame possibility (scalp, day, and swing or position trade). On the other time frames you can see that the SCSS is the uptrend stock and that have enough room for that target area. The first day we saw the 24 areas what was day trade target area and the second day we saw a finally target. Right now SCSS stayed strong with another consolidation at high and I will follow that one for another trade above the daily highs. But since it is already at the 25 area (that is a bigger number resistance area) and the daily equal move resistance I will look for faster trade possibility, and that is hard call for the journal post because first I want see open at the Monday and then will decide and because of that I cover that type of trades in trading room.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006scss.jpg

Here is the 60 min chart with results after the first and the second day. The risk reward results are very important for me and it is main measure for success, in my opinion, because SCSS trade must cover a few negative trades and that is a good way to be successful trader.
If anyone will have any questions feel free to ask

Good weekend to all
Ivica

p.s. my apologies for any grammar mistakes.

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 10/16/2006

Good day!
The market remains strong heading into the new week. Friday we had a low volume consolidation day with an upward bias. You can see on the 15 min QQQQ chart is has reached the equal move (42.50) resistance area. The same is evident on the 60 min SPY
nd DIA charts. The daily and the weekly charts show us there is more room for a continued upside move this week. This situation is especially difficult since with earnings and news this market can continue or reverse very quickly. The charts can support a move in either direction. Risk is high for new swing trades. I will continue to look for intraday possibilities for now and I will also look at my open swing positions for possible setups to add to those positions. But for new trades I will look for smaller time frames. I am always on the lookout to find stocks with "own way" and then I will go with the normal swing expectations. If anyone has any questions, please join me in the trading room for more details.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006qqqq15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006dia60.jpg


Watch list for 10/16/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
SYKE long above: 20.70, stop under: 19.60, target: open ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006syke.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 07, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
NHP long above: 28.00, stop under: 27.70 (27.40), target: 29-30 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006snhp.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 01, 2006


SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
PGR short under: 24.50, stop above: 25.54, target: 22 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006pgr.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 03, 2006

BBX short under: 13.50, stop above: 13.75, target: open ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006bbx.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 18, 2006

Watch ideas:
Long: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006nbix.jpg

Short: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006mlnm.jpg


DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Watch list for 10/17/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

For today is important to know that risk is higher. Because of that I will use small risk on every setup. This is part of risk management and that is very important part to be successful trader.
I did not find very many interesting setups for swing traders this morning. My goal is to bring you lower risk, higher probability trades. The market is now is higher risk for new swing setups so the number of swing trades possibilities are fewer. I will continue to work for your long term success. So please understand why there are fewer trade possibilities.


LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

PSA long above: 89.75, stop under: 88.40, target: 95 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10172006psa.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 02, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

NHP long above: 28.00, stop under: 27.70, target: 29-30 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10172006nhp.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 01, 2006


SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

PGR short under: 24.50, stop above: 25.54, target: 22 areas ST
Last/next earning date: Aug 03, 2006

 

[dgran4500]

I am interested in swing trading how much money do i need to be successful? Also i am considering taking a course by bill poulos

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Watch list for 10/19/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

PSA long above: 89.75, stop under: 88.70, target: 93 areas http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10192006psa.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 02, 2006

IIIN long above: 22.45, stop under: 21.00, target: 25 (30) areas ST-PT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10182006iiin.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 20, 2006

SHORT:
Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

RHAT short under: 18.93, stop above: 19.35, target: 18 area DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10192006rhat.jpg

Watch ideas:

Long: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10192006ikn.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10192006abbi.jpg

Short: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10192006infa.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10192006ctx.jpg _________________________________________________________________________________

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 10/20/2006

Good day!

We had another range day yesterday with very little change in all the indices. The 60 min charts stayed in a nice consolidation for all the indices, the weekly charts indicate the indices still need further consolidation for a low risk swing move up.

I will look at the 60 min triangle consolidation with a 3rd try possible for a move up this morning. I reiterate I will only use that for an intraday move. Today is Friday and as you know predictable action generally only occurs during the morning and poor choppy action after lunch into the close. Most of the time not worth any risk. Swing trades are still high risk, and I will again stay with intraday moves.

I am taking a few days vacation with my family and will not be in the trading room today. I will list only day trades on the watch list and swing trade possibilities will only be under watch ideas. If anyone needs help, please ask in room and an experienced trader will give his/her opinion.

Thank you for your support and I will be back in room on Monday.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/20...02006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006dia60.jpg

Watch list for 10/20/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
PSA, IIIN, ABBI are still valid as swing trades.

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
PWR long above: 19.05, stop under: 18.75, target: 19.50-20 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006pwr.jpg

FOXH long above: 38.50, stop under: 38.00, target: 40 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006foxh.jpg


SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

DDS short under: 29.90, stop above: 30.50, target: 200sma daily ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006dds.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 14, 2006


Watch ideas:
Long: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006svu.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006aep.jpg

Short: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006bpop.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Ivica Juracic

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 10/24/2006

Good day!

Yesterday started with gap down, poor earning by Ford and a decline in the bond market. After some choppy action we had a strong intraday move up. For the QQQQ that was a move up to the daily high resistance area on the 60 min chart. You can easily see how the 3rd try can work. The SPY barely gave us a daily high and the DIA was again the strongest indice. You can see on the daily charts how the trend line can hold. Every time when indices touched that line we saw a bounce.
For today I don't expect any big change. I still think that the QQQQ could see another move up to the 43 weekly resistance areas. Don’t forget that the QQQQ is already in the resistance that area and that brings a higher risk for new swing trades.

Every new move up is bringing us to higher risk for new swing trades. Because of that I will again use intraday moves for today. I expect a range trading day. Remember this is earnings season. TXN a bellwether chip company guided down after the bell yesterday so we might see some weakness at the open. We must also be very cognizant of the Fed meeting taking place today and tomorrow. While a change in rates is not expected the tone (hawkish) based on recent events can be detrimental to the rally.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006dia60.jpg


Watch list for 10/24/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
NHP long above: 28.06, stop under: 27.57, target: 29-30 areas DT –ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006nhp.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 01, 2006


Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
WFMI long above: 65.42, stop under: 64.50, target: 67.50 (70.00) ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006wfmi.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 02, 2006

PKX long above: 68.50, stop under: 67.95, target: 70 (72.50) DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006pkx.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 13, 2006


SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
HNZ short under: 41.24, stop above: 41.55, target: 40 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006hnz.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 31, 2006

Watch ideas:

Long: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006dd.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006phrm.jpg

Short: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006bow.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006cbss.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006bpop.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade


I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 10/26/2006

Good day!

The market did pretty much what the FED did yesterday, nothing. The day followed a typical Fed day with an upside move in the morning and consolidation during the day. After the decision was also typical with the market becoming volatile and choppy with the indices recovering in the final hour and closing strongly. As normal, the day after the Fed the indices will reverse and we will see a sell off that is range bound.

Earnings are the main driver of the market now. BA and GM both sold off after good earnings yesterday and Chip stocks had a significant bounce which may bode well for the QQQQ to finally get through resistance. Today is the busiest reporting day of the season. XOM reports before the bell.

I expect the indices to be volatile and high risk today and tomorrow. I will stay away from swing trades and stay with intraday moves unless I find an "own way" stock chart.


http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006qqqq.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006dia60.jpg


Those days are hard to bring sure setups because it is very important to see market open during earning season. I will bring some ideas, but it is very important to see action at the open and then make decision, because of that if anyone need more info you can find me in trading room.
It is very important to not overtrade, so bring them all small; right now isn’t good market for huge risk. It will come again and save money for that.

Wish you all good trading day!!!!!!!!!!!!

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006gymb.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006ibm.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006ccl.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006rhat.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006psa.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006chs.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006uri.jpg

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 10/27/2006

Good day!
Typical action after the Fed day with the market volatility. Predicted selling and then a strong intraday recovery. The QQQQ was the strongest index getting back to the high resistance area. Concerning was the lack of follow though the SPY and the DIA had. While the QQQQ already gave a smaller 15 min consolidation for the new high the other indices came to the high resistance and there is a danger of a double top pattern. Fortunately the other indices finally did move up based on the QQQQ strength.

The QQQQ continues to go deeper and deeper into resistance and we can see the correction on the daily base. I think this is when they say the market is overbought but it can become more overbought.

The market continues to be moving to earnings and news. Swing trades continue to be high risk and I will follow intraday moves. We had several very nice day trades yesterday (CCL, CELG, SYNA, SVU, SBUX). Today is Friday which generally means a slower day with most predictable action in the morning.

Trade small and trade smart and trade with what the market will give us. It is best today to follow the open and watch the setups on the list. I recommend joining us in the trading room to follow the market. I will scan the market at the open and identify the strongest and weakest names and make our trading decisions at that time.


http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006qqqq.jpg
*********************http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006dia60.jpg

Watch list for 10/27/2006

Trade small and trade smart and trade with what the market will give us. It is best today to follow the open and watch the setups on the list. I recommend joining us in the trading room to follow the market. I will scan the market at the open and identify the strongest and weakest names and make our trading decisions at that time.

LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

PSA long above: 89.75, stop under: 87.63, target: 95-100 areas http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006psa.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 02, 2006


Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
PKX long above: 70.70, stop under: 70.25, target: 72 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006pkx.jpg

STLD long above: 62.10 (61.75), stop under: 61.20, target: 65 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006stld.jpg

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006utsi.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006ibm.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006wag.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006teva.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006uri.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade


I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic


Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Part of Friday morning action and trade explanations

COHU
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006cohu.jpg
My charts are very simply so we have here morning gap up after first 10 min sell of COHU bounced from 20.50 support area and made nice 5 min triangle.
I always look for consolidations (base, triangle, and flag). After move up equal move and 21.50 as number area was enough reason for target area.
Right now COHU forming another triangle consolidation at highs and it is again valid above high of day.
You can see on 60 min that is also continuation pattern.

ELX
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006elx.jpg
Same situation as COHU, just different direction.
Triangle consolidation after move down. That gave us a nice risk reward possibility.
Didn’t see my target area but you can see that was worth for risk what we had. That was also the 15 min continuation pattern. I always watch more time frames and I look for pattern combination.
All what I explain here on any setup is very simply. But unfortunately that isn’t enough to be successful trader.
Whole picture from more time frames is ..imo ..one big reason for that and because of that I cant trade without my screen. My biggest tool.

TIE
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006tie.jpg
TIE 60 min. I will talk little bit about that trade. Because that is combination of few time frames. at setup point that was nice base on the 5 min chart. Really tight base, so risk was only 20 cents, but as I always say that need to see situation on the other time frames. I see best support on the 60 min chart this line is the 20sma support area.
It is very important support/resistance area on the any time frame chart
TIE is uptrend stock on the 60 min chart. After that we saw the triangle consolidation and then we got combination of the 3rd try triangle and bounce from the 20sma support area so we have nice stuffs on our side.
Risk was 20 cents. I was close that one at the 33 area. With entry and stop amount it was r/r around 1/4
With ELX, COHU, STLD as winners and BLUD, AGP as losses. Lets say that TIE covered those 2 losses, still must be profitable morning.
On TIE 60 min chart...I won’t expect that we will see equal move target area that easily.
First will be previous high resistance area and that one will be strong resistance area.
Reason is that consolidation is to short for that possibility

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 10/30/2006

Good day!
After a number of green bars or up days on the daily charts we finally got a red bar and a negative day. Is that the top??, Perhaps, but nothing goes straight up forever and until we get a clear signal I am still bullish on this market.
On the weekly QQQQ chart you can see the pivot bar which can be a signal for top but that is not pattern for a short setup. From there we can see consolidation at the high or a slight correction. The same can be said for other Indices. The only thing can be said after Friday's intraday strong selling is the Indices are still in uptrend and the support area is still holding. Time will tell if the uptrend line will hold or not. In any case I won’t go with a short bias until I see a reversal pattern.
Next week I expect that market will start with a daily consolidation (correction). It is important to see the pace of that correction and then we will see our expectations for a future move.
Consolidation usually brings a high risk market with possibilities for strong intraday moves. Because of this increased risk I will reduce my risk until the market shows us a good swing opportunity. I will base my action depending on the intraday market breadth.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqq60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqq15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006spy60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006spy15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006dia60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006dia15.jpg


Watch list for 10/30/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:
Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

MAT long above: 22.56, stop under: 22.40, target: 23.00 area DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006mat.jpg

SVU long above: 33.68, stop under: 33.50, target: 34.50-35 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006svu.jpg


SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

BPOP short under: 17.93, stop above: 18.17, target: 17 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006bpop.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 13, 2006

URI short under: 24.21, stop above: 24.81, target: 23 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006uri.jpg
Last/next earning date: OCT 31, 2006

TEVA short under: 33.19, stop above: 33.63, target: 32 – 31 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006teva.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 07, 2006

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006pld.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006ara.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006gtrc.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006usg.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006in.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006ceco.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Market commentary for 10/31/2006

Good day!

All said and done yesterday we saw another classic consolidation day. The QQQQ was the strongest indice and had the strongest intraday move, however at the day’s end it didn't make a significant move up. The morning started with consolidation and the saw the 200ma 15 min support area was to strong and the first try to break above the 5 min resistance failed. The daily uptrend line and the 200ma support area was to strong and resulted in an intraday bounce, especially on the QQQQ chart. The DIA and SPY didn't show much power and finished near the days low. The volume on that consolidation was low and that in my opinion that is telling us about today's expectations. This may be a carryover from the very weak GDP numbers from Friday.

The daily trend line probably will not hold and we will see another round of selling. Put very simply looking at Monday's action (consolidation at the lows for the SPY and the DIA) combined with low volume means the buyers were not interested for another bounce from the strong daily support.

That is my expectation, but as usual I will follow market. For now I will stay with intraday moves, I will post those potential day trades during the day in the trading room.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqq60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqq15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006spy60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006spy15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006dia60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006dia15.jpg


I will explain 2 trades what we had yesterday. One is from the watch list what was posted here yesterday and one is from the trading room.


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Despite of the Friday intraday selling MAT held very nice. That is what I like because I was look for yesterday intraday bounce from strong trend line support area on the daily charts. I don’t expect swing move up again right now, but that not mean we can’t get intraday moves, and MAT held very nice. Show us nice strength and I like that 60 min triangle action what gave us worth risk reward..

You can see that MAT saw resistance area and that brought us around 2:1 reward/risk. I’m satisfied with that result in the market consolidation type of action.
On the daily chart MAT have more room for up, but as I explained this is not best time for new swing trades.

Second example is:

That was a room call and I want to show you that 60 min consolidation. Take a look how important is 20sma support area. I have 20sma on every time frame chart. That is very important support/resistance area. On the 5 min chart I use them for faster trades and that area helping me to for trend expectations. Same is for the bigger time frames, but then for longer intraday/daily trends. Because of that I use them a lot for my trading.

I found a number of possible day trades. It is important to evaluate them after the market opens and see what action can be taken. I will bring some ideas to this daily list under "day trade possibilities". All of these ideas can be interesting only as day trades. Please don't over trade them especially if they set up at the same time. I recommend only taking trades that you really like and understanding. These ideas are just for the morning. For updates you can check in the trading room.

Watch ideas:
Long:

Short:

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Good day!

Economic news continued to be poor with the ISM coming in lower than expected. Even with better than expected earnings news it appears to be some profit taking after a strong run up over the last 3 months. Technically the market continued to consolidate in the morning and rolled over into a trend day to the downside. The market found support at the 20sma on the daily charts. You can see that the afternoon selling into that daily support was the third selling wave on the 15 min charts. Most of the time after a third selling wave you need consolidation before a continuation is a possibility. That sounds good, but of course it isn't a rule and we could see another strong move down today especially in the morning. The market could be setting up for the Jobs report Friday morning. I personally think this whippy market will not be resolved until after the election on Tuesday.

Any move down would only be for day trade purposes because the 30/60 min charts need to consolidate before a lower risk swing setup can materialize. With strong daily support and the intraday extended move I expect another consolidation day on the 30/60 min charts. It is probably best to follow the market action for the first 15 minutes and see what opportunities the markets hold.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006qqqq15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006spy15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006dia15.jpg


Watch ideas:

With the market action last days best is to stay with the intraday moves. Yesterday CTV is good example:

You can see nice 60 min consolidation (base). We used 30.50 as the target area because of daily 100sma support area and that was nice intraday risk reward (around 2). Under is the 60 min chart after we closed trade.

I found a number of possible day trades. It is important to evaluate them after the market opens and see what action can be taken. I will bring some ideas to this daily list under "day trade possibilities". All of these ideas can be interesting only as day trades. Please don't over trade them especially if they set up at the same time. I recommend only taking trades that you really like and understanding. More information’s and updates will be in the trading room.

Long:

Short

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Watch list for 11/06/2006
LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

RX long above: 28.05, stop under: 27.40, target: 30 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006rx.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 18, 2006

IBN long above: 35.50, stop under: 34.58, target: 37.50-38 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006ibn.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 24, 2006
SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

BCO short under: 52.25, stop above: 53.06, target: 50 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006bco.jpg
Last/next earning date: ¸Nov 01, 2006

EQ short under: 48.27, stop above: 48.73, target: 46 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006eq.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 25, 2006


Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006bdk.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006josb.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006s.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006akam.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006algn.jpg
DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Good day!

Here is another example what we had yesterday.
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006rx.jpg

Setup was before 2 days. I liked weekly/monthly charts. Setup was above 28 with stop under 27.60. So risk was 60 cents and 30 as whole number was target area. Yesterday in the morning RX exploded and fast came to our target area. Very nice risk reward trade.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006rx.jpg
This is exit chart from yesterday. Congratulations to all takers.


Market commentary for 11/08/2006

Good day!

With the elections results last night traders are convinced that Washington will be gridlock for the next two years and that will be good for stocks. TOL and other homebuilders continue to post poor results, Oil continues to fall and the bond market rallies. All of that contributed to the early morning rally. Bottom line all we did was test the daily high resistance before a late turndown. The rally over the past two days could easily have been a short squeeze and yesterday morning could have been the top. We will have to wait to see.

Morning pace and volume was very nice. The DIA and the QQQQ made new daily highs (slightly new daily highs). Consolidation over noon was very nice and 20ma on the 5 and 15 min held very nice. Then we got one of my favorite patterns which is a 3rd try break. This pattern isn’t the holly grail and doesn't work every time, but it is important to know that lots of time if the 3rd try won’t go we can see stronger reversal. This is not pattern I will trade but it is good to know for open positions. That is the reason I told everyone in the room I was closing all open day trades.

For the rest of the day we saw the market continue to slowly sell off. The good news for swing traders the Indices stayed above 20sma 30 min which is important support area for swing traders.

I don’t have clear bias for today, but I’m more for bullish for the morning. This is not a strong swing bias. I will look for market direction at the open and look for lower risk day trades in the trading room.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006qqqq30.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006qqqq15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006spy15.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006spy15min.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006dia30.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006dia15.jpg


Tracking records:

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl052006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl062006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl072006.htm - for July
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl082006.htm - for August
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl092006.htm - for September
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November


I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions. [email protected]

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

 

[xpertstocktrader]

Good day!!

For now very nice week. On the tracking records you can see results: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November

I will bring just few examples what we had last days.

Example 1
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006rx.jpg - before setup
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006rx.jpg - exit

Example 2
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006komg.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006komg.jpg

Example 3
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11092006unh.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006unh.jpg

Example 4
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006s.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006s.jpg


Market commentary for 11/13/2006

Good day!

We saw a NR4 bar on the charts with Friday's trading. Often after that type of action we see a trend day. We will have to wait to see what develops today. Well Friday was a typical Friday, especially after the sell off on Thursday. The day was slow, choppy and very low volume. This is usually expected after a large move. Consolidation or rest is needed before the market usually continues. To be successful you must recognize days like these and trade appropriately. Taking on additional risk is just that and all too often a silly and very costly loss. As a swing trader days like Friday are worthless for me. High risk and few predictable moves.

On the QQQQ weekly chart you can see the resistance area which is very strong. On the daily charts the Indices broke trend and started consolidation. First support areas on the daily charts are the 20sma. The Indices just started this consolidation and we don’t have a clear direction for the market. I expect this type of high risk market for the next several weeks. That not means I wont trade, however to preserve capital I will trade with half risk and I will try to find “own way” stocks, like we had PGR.

I do not have any bias for today. My plan is to watch the market open and hopefully I will find some good day trade opportunities which I will first post in the trading room. I look forward to seeing you in there.


http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006qqqq60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006qqqqweekly.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006dia30.jpg

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions. [email protected]

Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic