Spreadbetting FX using TA

[SH-101]

Currently watching AUD/USD.

The screenshot below shows the 20ema (yellow) crossing above the 60sma (blue) on the daily chart, on the right-hand side. The 60sma is "levelling off" after a period of decline. On the 4-hour chart, in the centre, the 20ema is crossed above the 60sma, and both are sloping upwards. Although these are not the indicators I use, they do show that the market is generally bullish - trading in an upward trend.

The left-hand chart shows bullish hidden divergence in both RSI(14) and CCI(50) oscillators. Hidden divergence is an indication of bullish trend continuation.

The central chart shows the market bouncing from an area that previously held resistance and may now become support as it has been tested from the opposite side. There is also support from the 4-hour 20ema.

My order has been placed to buy at 0.9103 offered, if-done stop 0.9060 bid, if-done limit 0.9173 bid. Orders will be pulled if the market breaks down through the previous hourly low around 0.9065 before they are triggered.

 

[SH-101]

Well that didn't take long - orders pulled for now, but I'll still be keeping an eye on this market for a possible trade as there is still a potential setup here.

 

[SH-101]

New orders for AUDUSD:

Buy stop 0.9098 offered, if-done stop 0.9050 bid, if-done limit 0.9178 bid.

Similar setup as before - hidden divergence into trend. Fibonacci support also observed.

 

[SH-101]

AUD/USD order triggered while I was out this afternoon - position has moved nicely into profit at this stage but has so far not quite reached the level at which I would move my stop to break-even, so just keeping an eye on it now while watching Arsenal hopefully stuff Porto in the Champions League

 

[SH-101]

Porto smashed 5-0 and AUDUSD stop moved to break-even at 0.9098 bid... happy days :clap:

 

[SH-101]

Out of AUDUSD with target having been met @ 9178.

With 5% of the account at risk initially this trade produced an eventual gain of 8.24% after some minor rollover costs.

Onwards and upwards, but first pubwards :cheesy:

 

[SH-101]

Looking at EUR/GBP now.

Order placed to buy at 0.9102 offered, if-done stop 0.9057, if-done limit 0.9176.

Setup is similar to before - hidden divergence into trend. Screenshot to follow...

 

[SH-101]

Decided to pull the EURGBP order - the setup isn't quite as strong as I'd like and there's no need to go chasing trades.

 

[Mr Flibble]

Watching EURJPY at the moment.

Entry order placed to sell at 120.64 bid, if-done stop 121.73 offered, if-done target 118.50 offered.

Orders will be pulled if market rallies and breaks the previous hourly high around 121.65.

Screenshots: As mentioned previously these are not the specific technical indicators I use. They simply show similar things - the broad overall theme of my approach.

The first screenshot shows a 4-hour chart and a daily chart. Both show the 20-bar EMA (yellow) sloping down. Both show the 60-bar SMA (green) sloping down. Both show the 12/26/9 MACD crossed down. These are reasonable technical indications of a downtrend on these longer-term charts.

The second screenshot shows "hidden divergence" on MACD and a 14-bar RSI on the 1-hour chart. This is marked by the yellow lines and is a sign of potential trend continuation. The green dotted line shows an area of previous support which may hold as resistance now that it has been tested from the "underside".

Hello SH, you mention hidden divergence and that the signs from MACD and RSI were of a continuation in trend. I see quite the opposite in that 2nd chart. There is a lower low however on the RSI we that low is higher than the previous one. This is a sign of a trend reversal surely? This may be why the trade went against you. Of course divergence is only on form of TA but in my humble opinion its VERY strong.

 

[SH-101]

Hello SH, you mention hidden divergence and that the signs from MACD and RSI were of a continuation in trend. I see quite the opposite in that 2nd chart. There is a lower low however on the RSI we that low is higher than the previous one. This is a sign of a trend reversal surely? This may be why the trade went against you. Of course divergence is only on form of TA but in my humble opinion its VERY strong.

Hi Mr. F,

The second screenshot shows bearish hidden divergence which occurred following a bullish regular divergence. In situations like that the trick is to determine which divergence will be the more successful - which I try to judge using support/resistance.

In my view the bearish hidden divergence had more chance of succeeding because I perceived that the resistance from which it was bouncing was stronger than the support area which backed up the earlier bullish signal.

Unfortunately on that occasion I got it wrong

 

[SH-101]

Having to be patient at the moment waiting for the right setups! A GBP/JPY short may be the next setup I trade, but we shall have to wait and see...

 

[SH-101]

EUR/GBP long may also be in play soon, but it's very preliminary at this stage.

 

[SH-101]

Having to be patient at the moment waiting for the right setups! A GBP/JPY short may be the next setup I trade, but we shall have to wait and see...

Following that up, I don't trade hammers/pinbars, but if I did I'd be tempted by the GBP/JPY hourly chart about now.

 

[Black Swan]

Following that up, I don't trade hammers/pinbars, but if I did I'd be tempted by the GBP/JPY hourly chart about now.

Hi bud, are you trading off 4hr/dailys?

 

[SH-101]

Hi Black Swan,

I favour a kind of "triple screen" chart setup. Most of my trigger signals come from hourly charts, with 4h and daily as a guide to overall trend and conditions. Sometimes, I'll look at 4h as a trigger with daily and weekly as a guide.

 

[Black Swan]

Hi Black Swan,

I favour a kind of "triple screen" chart setup. Most of my trigger signals come from hourly charts, with 4h and daily as a guide to overall trend and conditions. Sometimes, I'll look at 4h as a trigger with daily and weekly as a guide.

very similar to moi...

 

[SH-101]

Order placed to sell GBP/JPY at 138.21 bid. If-done stop 139.48 offered, if-done limit 135.85 offered.

Screenshots to follow.

 

[SH-101]

Screenshots to follow.

And here they are.

In the first screenshot, we can see in the right-hand chart that on a monthly basis, the 20ema (yellow) is crossed below the 60sma (blue), with both sloping down. The central chart is a weekly chart and shows the 20ema crossed below the 60sma, but only the former is sloping down. For additional confirmation of the technical downtrend we can see that the MACD 12/26/9 is crossed below zero and below its signal line. It's also, of course, worth noting that both charts show a general pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The left-hand chart shows a double cluster of fibonacci retracement levels, providing technical resistance.

The second screenshot shows bearish hidden divergence in the right-hand chart (daily) and bearish regular divergence in the others (1hr and 4hr). I have used a variety of oscillators to show this - as always I'll keep to myself the exactl oscillators and settings I use, but ultimately they only show the same thing.

Order will be pulled if the market rallies back up through the previous high around 139.35.

 

[SH-101]

GBP/JPY order filled - I am short.

That pinbar was worth a few pips to those who like that sort of thing

 

[SH-101]

Stop to break-even on this GBP/JPY trade.