Sports Day Trading

[Data Miner]

05 April 2007
+295.65 b/fwd

Today's racing;
SOLD Wincanton distances @ 40 (SF) 5pts
BOUGHT Wolverhampton distances @ 8.25 (IG) 15pts
SOLD Wolverhampton favourites @ 59 (All) 3pts

===== Previous trading results (from 04 April 2007) =====
+325.65 b/fwd

11] SOLD Catterick SPs @ 45 (SP) 3pts MU=55, -30.00

Day's return -30.00, +295.65 to c/fwd

 

[Data Miner]

06 April 2007
+230.59 b/fwd

Today's football;
SOLD supremacy Southend v Colchester @ 0.2 (SX) 25pts

===== Previous trading results (from 05 April 2007) =====
+295.65 b/fwd

SOLD Wincanton distances @ 40 (SF) 5pts MU=23.1, +80.44
BOUGHT Wolverhampton distances @ 8.25 (IG) 15pts MU=5.75, -37.50
SOLD Wolverhampton favourites @ 59 (All) 3pts MU=95, -108.00

Day's return -65.06, +230.59 to c/fwd

 

[Data Miner]

07 April 2007
+310.59 b/fwd

Today's racing;
16] SOLD Carlisle distances @ 34 (SP,IG) 5pts
17] SOLD Carlisle SPs @ 52 (SF) 1pt
18] SOLD Carlisle SPs @ 51 (SX) 2pts
19] BOUGHT Haydock distances @ 34 (SF) 6pts
20] BOUGHT Newton Ab. favs @ 56 (SP) 3.5pts
21] SOLD Kempton SPs @ 45 (IG) 3pts

===== Previous trading results (from 06 April 2007) =====
Start of day +230.59

15] SOLD supremacy Southend v Colchester @ 0.2 (SX) 25pts MU=-3, +80.00

Day's return +80.00, +310.59 to c/fwd

 

[Data Miner]

07 April 2007 ... more afternoon trading

This afternoon's football;
Supremacies
22] Birmingham v Burnley SOLD @ 0.9 (All) 25pts
23] Leeds v Plymouth SOLD @ 0.5 (SX) 25pts
24] West Brom v Stoke SOLD @ 0.7 (SX) 25pts
Total Goals
25] Luton v Southampton SOLD @ 2.7 (SP) 25pts
26] Chesterfield v Crewe SOLD @ 2.7 (SX) 25pts
27] Burton v York BOUGHT @ 2.4 (SX) 25pts
Mini-performances
28] BOUGHT Plymouth (v Leeds) @ 15 (SX) 5pts
29] BOUGHT York (v Burton) @ 17 (SX) 5pts

 

[Data Miner]

Good day's footy & 5/5 at the races

08 April 2007
+670.85 b/fwd

Today's racing;
30] SOLD Plumpton SPs @ 37 (SP) 3pts
31] BOUGHT Plumpton Favs @ 71 (SP) 3.5pts
32] BOUGHT Towc. Favs @ 77 (SP) 3.5pts
33] SOLD Muss. Favs @ 75 (SP) 3pts

===== Previous trading results (from 07 April 2007) =====
+310.59 b/fwd

16] SOLD Carlisle distances @ 34 (SP,IG) 5pts MU=32, [+10.00]
17] SOLD Carlisle SPs @ 52 (SF) 1pt MU=46.4, [+5.33]
18] SOLD Carlisle SPs @ 51 (SX) 2pts MU=46.4, [+9.20]
19] BOUGHT Haydock distances @ 34 (SF) 6pts MU=53, [+108.53]
20] BOUGHT Newton Ab. favs @ 56 (SP) 3.5pts MU=60, [+14.00]
21] SOLD Kempton SPs @ 45 (IG) 3pts MU=38.1, [+20.70]
22] Birmingham v Burnley SOLD @ 0.9 (All) 25pts MU=-1, [+47.50]
23] Leeds v Plymouth SOLD @ 0.5 (SX) 25pts MU=1, [-12.50]
24] West Brom v Stoke SOLD @ 0.7 (SX) 25pts MU=-2, [+67.50]
25] Luton v Southampton SOLD @ 2.7 (SP) 25pts MU=2, [+17.50]
26] Chesterfield v Crewe SOLD @ 2.7 (SX) 25pts MU=3, [-7.50]
27] Burton v York BOUGHT @ 2.4 (SX) 25pts MU=3, [+15.00]
28] BOUGHT Plymouth (v Leeds) @ 15 (SX) 5pts MU=10, [-25.00]
29] BOUGHT York (v Burton) @ 17 (SX) 5pts MU=35, [+90.00]

Day's return +360.26, +670.85 to c/fwd

 

[Data Miner]

09 April 2007
+727.05 b/fwd

Today's racing;
34] SOLD Huntingdon distances @ 37 (IG,SX) 5pts
35] SOLD Huntingdon SPs @ 32 (SP) 3pts
36] SOLD Plumpton distances @ 39 (IG) 5pts
37] BOUGHT Plumpton Favs @ 68 (SF) 3.5pts
38] SOLD Sedgefield distances @ 35 (SP) 5pts
39] SOLD Musselburgh SPs @ 48 (IG) 3pts
40] SOLD Musselburgh Favs @ 72 (SP) 3pts
41] SOLD Warwick SPs @ 50 (SP) 3pts
42] BOUGHT Warwick Favs @ 56 (IG,SX) 3.5pts

===== Previous trading results (from 08 April 2007) =====
+670.85 b/fwd

30] SOLD Plumpton SPs @ 37 (SP) 3pts MU=43.1, [-18.30]
31] BOUGHT Plumpton Favs @ 71 (SP) 3.5pts MU=50, [-73.50]
32] BOUGHT Towc. Favs @ 77 (SP) 3.5pts MU=85, [+28.00]
33] SOLD Muss. Favs @ 75 (SP) 3pts MU=35, [+120.00]

Day's return +56.20, +727.05 to c/fwd

 

[Data Miner]

09 April 2007 supplementary

Today's football;

Total goals
43] BOUGHT Gillingham v BristolC @ 2.4 (IG) 25pts
44] BOUGHT Wrexham v NottsC @ 2.4 (SP) 25pts
45] SOLD Cambridge v Dag&R @ 2.7 (SP,SX) 25pts
46] SOLD Oxford v Weymouth @ 2.6 (SX) 25pts

Supremacies
47] SOLD NottmF v Rotherham @ 1.1 (IG) 25pts
48] SOLD Cambridge v Dag&R @ 0.0 (SP,IG) 25pts

Mini-performances
49] BOUGHT Gillingham (v BristolC) @ 16 (SP) 5pts
50] BOUGHT Southport (v Burton) @ 17 (SP) 5pts

 

[Data Miner]

10 April 2007
+642.05 b/fwd

Today's racing;
51] SOLD Chepstow distances @ 33 (IG,SX) 5pts
52] SOLD Pontefract favourites @ 77 (SP) 3pts


===== Previous trading results (from 09 April 2007) =====
+727.05 b/fwd

34] SOLD Huntingdon distances @ 37 (IG,SX) 5pts MU=34.1, [+14.50]
35] SOLD Huntingdon SPs @ 32 (SP) 3pts MU=19.9, [+36.30]
36] SOLD Plumpton distances @ 39 (IG) 5pts MU=20.75, [+91.25]
37] BOUGHT Plumpton Favs @ 68 (SF) 3.5pts MU=20, [-168.00]
38] SOLD Sedgefield distances @ 35 (SP) 5pts MU=36.45, [-7.25]
39] SOLD Musselburgh SPs @ 48 (IG) 3pts MU=24.1, [+71.70]
40] SOLD Musselburgh Favs @ 72 (SP) 3pts MU=100, [-84.00]
41] SOLD Warwick SPs @ 50 (SP) 3pts MU=42, [+24.00]
42] BOUGHT Warwick Favs @ 56 (IG,SX) 3.5pts MU=45, [-38.50]
43] BOUGHT Gillingham v BristolC @ 2.4 (IG) 25pts MU=1, [-35.00]
44] BOUGHT Wrexham v NottsC @ 2.4 (SP) 25pts MU=1, [-35.00]
45] SOLD Cambridge v Dag&R @ 2.7 (SP,SX) 25pts MU=6, [-82.50]
46] SOLD Oxford v Weymouth @ 2.6 (SX) 25pts MU=5, [-60.00]
47] SOLD NottmF v Rotherham @ 1.1 (IG) 25pts MU=0, [+27.50]
48] SOLD Cambridge v Dag&R @ 0.0 (SP,IG) 25pts MU=2, [-50.00]
49] BOUGHT Gillingham (v BristolC) @ 16 (SP) 5pts MU=30, [+70.00]
50] BOUGHT Southport (v Burton) @ 17 (SP) 5pts MU=45, [+140.00]

Day's return -85.00, +642.05 to c/fwd

 

[Data Miner]

11 April 2007
+717.05 b/fwd

Today's racing;
53] SOLD Exeter distances @ 45(All) 5pts
54] SOLD Bath SPs @ 40 (SP,IG) 3pts

===== Previous trading results (from 10 April 2007) =====
+642.05 b/fwd

51] SOLD Chepstow distances @ 33 (IG,SX) 5pts MU=28.2, [+24.00]
52] SOLD Pontefract favourites @ 77 (SP) 3pts MU=60, [+51.00]

Day's return +75.00, +717.05 to c/fwd

 

[Data Miner]

12 April 2007
+780.75 b/fwd

Nothing meets my criteria for trading today.


===== Previous trading results (from 11 April 2007) =====

53] SOLD Exeter distances @ 45(All) 5pts MU=23.5, [+107.50]
54] SOLD Bath SPs @ 40 (SP,IG) 3pts MU=54.6, [-43.80]

Day's return +63.70, +780.75 to c/fwd

 

[Data Miner]

13 April 2007
+780.75 b/fwd

Today's racing;
55] SOLD Aintree distances @ 35 (IG) 5pts
56] SOLD Southwell SPs @ 46 (SP) 3pts

Happy Spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

14 April 2007
+850.50 b/fwd

Today's racing;
57] SOLD Chep SPs @ 47 (SF) 1pt
58] SOLD Chep SPs @ 46 (SF) 2pts
59] SOLD Newc Favs @ 65 (SP) 3pts
60] SOLD Ling SPs @ 45 (IG) 3pts


===== Previous trading results (from 13 April 2007) =====
+780.75 b/fwd

55] SOLD Aintree distances @ 35 (IG) 5pts MU=32.75, [+11.25]
56] SOLD Southwell SPs @ 46 (SP) 3pts MU=26.5, [+58.50]

Day's return +69.75, +850.50 to c/fwd

 

[Data Miner]

... and to complete my batch of trades for the day ... this afternoon's football;

Supremacies
61] SOLD Leeds v Burnley @ 0.4 (SX) 25pts
62] SOLD Exeter v Camb @ 0.8 (SP) 25pts

Aggregates;
63] SOLD PortV v Crewe @ 2.8 (SX,IG) 25pts
64] BOUGHT Barnet v BrisR @ 2.4 (IG) 25pts
65] BOUGHT Northwich v Crawley @ 2.4 (IG) 25pts

Mini-performances;
66] BOUGHT Burnley @ 16 (SP,SX) 5pts
67] BOUGHT Doncaster @ 16 (SP) 5pts
68] SOLD Hull @ 21 (SP) 5pts
69] BOUGHT Crawley @ 16 (SP) 5pts
70] BOUGHT Weymouth @ 16 (SP) 5pts

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

15 April 2007
+659.29 b/fwd

Today's racing;
71] SOLD Market Rasen distances @ 38 (IG) 5pts
72] SOLD Market Rasen SPs @ 43 (SP,SX) 3pts
73] SOLD Worcester SPs @ 52 (All) 3pts


===== Previous trading results (from 14 April 2007) =====
+850.50 b/fwd

57] SOLD Chep SPs @ 47 (SF) 1pt MU=33.8, [+12.56]
58] SOLD Chep SPs @ 46 (SF) 2pts MU=33.8, [+23.23]
59] SOLD Newc Favs @ 65 (SP) 3pts MU=125, [-180.00]
60] SOLD Ling SPs @ 45 (IG) 3pts MU=49, [-12.00]
61] SOLD Leeds v Burnley @ 0.4 (SX) 25pts MU=1, [-15.00]
62] SOLD Exeter v Camb @ 0.8 (SP) 25pts MU=2, [-30.00]
63] SOLD PortV v Crewe @ 2.8 (SX,IG) 25pts MU=3, [-5.00]
64] BOUGHT Barnet v BrisR @ 2.4 (IG) 25pts MU=2, [-10.00]
65] BOUGHT Northwich v Crawley @ 2.4 (IG) 25pts MU=3, [+15.00]
66] BOUGHT Burnley @ 16 (SP,SX) 5pts MU=0, [-80.00]
67] BOUGHT Doncaster @ 16 (SP) 5pts MU=15, [-5.00]
68] SOLD Hull @ 21 (SP) 5pts MU=15, [+30.00]
69] BOUGHT Crawley @ 16 (SP) 5pts MU=10, [-30.00]
70] BOUGHT Weymouth @ 16 (SP) 5pts MU=16, [+95.00]

Day's return -191.21,

+659.29 to c/fwd

 

[Data Miner]

16 April 2007
+670.49 b/fwd

Today's racing;
74] SOLD Wetherby SPs @ 41 (IG,SX) 3pts
75] SOLD Windsor SPs @ 50 (SF) 3pts
76] BOUGHT Windsor Favs @ 53 (SX) 2pts

===== Previous trading results (from 15 April 2007) =====
+659.29 b/fwd

71] SOLD Market Rasen distances @ 38 (IG) 5pts MU=49.8, [-59.00]
72] SOLD Market Rasen SPs @ 43 (SP,SX) 3pts MU=34.9, [+24.30]
73] SOLD Worcester SPs @ 52 (All) 3pts MU=36.7, [+45.90]

Day's return +11.20
+670.49 to c/fwd

 

[NotQuiteRandom]

Data Miner, is your analysis 100% Neural Network based or do you also use other methods?

Thanks,

NQR

 

[Data Miner]

Trading pitfalls, man versus machine. I lose!

Data Miner, is your analysis 100% Neural Network based or do you also use other methods?

Thanks,

NQR

Hello NQR,

In answer to you question, yes, entirely and completely.

If ever I try to add in my own expertise(?) and knowledge(?) returns are far less reliable. The temptation for going against the neural predictions is never far away ... and I do admit to occasionally falling foul of my own golden rule which is;
"DM, the stats understand the situation far better than you do, so don't meddle!"
Tonight for instance, my nets tell me to oppose both Man Utd and Arsenal on the spreads currently quoted. My head tells me that it must surely be a dangerous ploy going against Man Utd especially in their current mood ... But hey! what do I know ... bets have now been duly placed.

A couple of good recent examples; Last month my football trades were going through a torrid time and a midweek-weekend-midweek patch saw me lose 600 points. I examined the "evidence" and decided that the tail-end of the season was not representative, and I should stop my football trading for the season. Maybe the cowards way is not to check-out "what would have been" after that decision, but why bury your head in the sand? The following weekend-midweek-weekend trading would have recouped all of the 600 points, and made profit on top, had I not invented reasons to curtail my trading in this area. Bugger! Football trading has been resumed

Example two: On Saturday (15 April) my NNets suggested a sell of both distances and SPs at Kelso. However, the racecard included a two-runner, three-mile steeplechase ... cue for my head to takes over the situation ...
Common sense (?) tells me to leave this well alone - too risky.
The outcome almost goes without saying? The distance spread would have returned a 296+ profit and the SP a 48+ profit. Double bugger!

I suppose my expertise & knowledge (this time without the question marks) is in the area of making best use of neural networks, which is by no means a straightforward business. But I've been using them in this area for over 10 years now, and you would have though by now I'd be able to stick to my own rules.

I'm still working on it. In a darkened room I'm repeating to myself over and over
"DM, the stats understand the situation far better than you do, so don't meddle!"

DM

 

[Data Miner]

17 April 2007
+739.99 b/fwd

No horseracing trades signalled today, but I do have an interest in the football this evening;

Supremacies:
77] SOLD Arsenal (v ManC) @ 1.3 (SP) 25pts
78] SOLD Man Utd (v SheffU) @ 2.0 (SX,IG) 25pts
79] SOLD Stevenage (v Rush &D) @ 0.7 (SP) 25pts

Total goals:
80] SOLD Man Utd v Sheff U @ 3.0 (IG) 25pts
81] SOLD Stevenage v Rushden &D @ 2.8 (SX) 25pts


===== Previous trading results (from 16 April 2007) =====
+670.49 b/fwd
74] SOLD Wetherby SPs @ 41 (IG,SX) 3pts MU=56.3, [-45.90]
75] SOLD Windsor SPs @ 50 (SF) 3pts MU=32, [+51.40]
76] BOUGHT Windsor Favs @ 53 (SX) 2pts MU=85, [+64.00]

Day's return +69.50
+739.99 to c/fwd

Happy spreading!

 

[Data Miner]

18 April 2007
+784.99 b/fwd

Today's racing;
82] SOLD Beverley Favs @ 74 (SX) 3pts
83] SOLD Newmarket Favs @ 80 (SP) 3pts
84] SOLD Cheltenham SPs @ 45 (All) 3pts


===== Previous trading results (from 17 April 2007) =====
+739.99 b/fwd
77] SOLD Arsenal (v ManC) @ 1.3 (SP) 25pts MU=2, [-17.50]
78] SOLD Man Utd (v SheffU) @ 2.0 (SX,IG) 25pts MU=2, [break-even]
79] SOLD Stevenage (v Rush &D) @ 0.7 (SP) 25pts MU=1, [-7.50]
80] SOLD Man Utd v Sheff U @ 3.0 (IG) 25pts MU=2, [+50.00]
81] SOLD Stevenage v Rushden &D @ 2.8 (SX) 25pts MU=1, [+45.00]

Day's return +45.00
+784.99 to c/fwd

 

[Data Miner]

18 April 2007 supplementary

+59.10 from the afternoon's racing going forward with
Tonight's football;

85] SOLD Blackburn supremacy (v Watford) @ 0.9 (SP) 25pts
86] SOLD Liverpool supremacy (v Middsbro) @ 1.4 (SP) 25pts

Happy Spreading!