December Diary of a Sports Spread Bettor

[Data Miner]

For anyone interested I thought I might put together a month looking over my shoulder at my sports spread-trading desk. I work on a month-by-month basis, aiming to make a 250 point profit. At the month end the slate is wiped clean and I begin the process once more.

Here we go then, any onlookers please feel free to comment upon my decisions, etc.


Starting bank zero


December 1st 2006
Blank day, no trading.

December 2nd 2006 (today)

Football:
3 pt sell of Liverpool's mini-performance of 22 (SportingIndex)
3pt buy of Wigan mini-perf @ 15 (Sporting)
3pt sell of Southampton mini-perf with Cantor Spreadfair @ 23

Horse Racing:
3pt Sell of distances at Chepstow (50 SportingIndex) & Wetherby (42 Sporting)
2pt sell of favourites at Chep (80 with IG) & Wetherby (84 Cantor)

Here we go, here we go, here we go.

 

[bizmanny]

How is your december 2 overall perfomance look.

 

[Data Miner]

December 2nd 2006

Despite 4 wins from 4 on yesterday afternoon's racing, the football bets all failed . . and how.
The month begins then with a loss of 193.6 points carried through to today.

Today's trades are all racing;
3pt sell Kelso distances @ 44.5 (Cantor)
2pt sell Kelso Favourites @ 80 (Sporting)
3.5pt sell Warwick SPs @ 45 (Spreadex)
2.5pt buy of Warwick Favourites @ 73 (Cantor)

. . . some catchin' up to do.

 

[Data Miner]

Monday 04 December

No action today.
Yesterday, despite 3 wins from 4 the single defeat overshadowed the successes and returned a loss of 33.3 points on the day.

minus 226.9 carried forward

December history; (aiming for +250 points gain over the month)

1st no trades
2nd (-193.6) -193.6
3rd (-33.3) -226.9
4th no trades -226.9

 

[Data Miner]

Dec 5th 2006

A December deficit of 226.9 brought forward.

Today on the horse racing I'm selling Fontwell distances @ 50 and Favourites @ 87 (both with Sporting)
Sedgefield I'm selling distances @ 42 with IG

One football trade for this evening, selling Division 2 Wrexham's mini-performance of 18 with Spreadex

Happy spreading,

 

[Data Miner]

2 wins from 4 trades yesterday, but still the losses pile up. A defecit of 43.85 therefore is added to December running total, now standing at minus 270.75.

D’you know, the more I dig, the deeper this hole seems to get . . .

A very wet, soggy & heavy going day at Hexham doesn’t prevent me from selling winning distances there for 3 points @ 57 with Spreadex.

Happy spreading

 

[Data Miner]

One trade, one win yesterday yielded a much needed 98.85 point profit.

Onward & upward (I hope?) with today’s trades of;

Sell Hunt distances 3pts @ 33 (Sporting)
Sell Hunt Favs 2pts @ 73 (Spreadex)
Sell Ludlow dists, 3pts @ 39 (Sporting)
Sell Taunton dists, 3pts @ 42 (Sporting)

Happy spreading

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

I used to do a lot of sports betting (no more, not enough time to study the form properly) so watching progress with interest - good luck Data Miner.

 

[Data Miner]

No form study for me either Jack. All performed using AI processed race records.

Yesterday's 3L & 1W sent the December total tumbling once more. A loss of almost 150 pts means I'm now sitting on a 320pt loss.

Today just a single trade. Cheltenham distances sold @ 38 (IGSport)

Happy spreading,

 

[Data Miner]

Saturday 09 December 2006

My only trade yesterday brought in a 46.8 profit, December running balance now looks a little less severe (emphasis on the little!) at minus 273.2

Just one horseracing spread this afternoon, selling Cheltenham distances for the second day in succession. 3pts @ 41 with Spreadex

On the league football front I'm selling six away sides for 3pts apiece;
Southampton @ 24 (Sporting)
N Forest @ 20 (Spreadex)
MK Dons @ 21 (Sp)
Wrexham @ 18 (Sx)
Lincoln @ 20 (Sp)
Darlington @ 19 (Sx)


Happy spreading,

 

[Data Miner]

Sunday 10 December 2006

Yesterday's sole horseracing trade brought a profit of 44.25pts, but the 6 footy mini-perfs came in at a loss reducing the day's trading profit to just 5.25 on the day.

Minus 268 pts to c/fwd.

Today sees a full house at Muss, I'm selling distances, SPs and favourites.

++++++++++

Now, I'm not one for bemoaning tough luck but thought I'd just mention yesterday's football trades, maybe I should be claiming a record of some kind?

The biggest influence on mini-performance make-ups is goals scored, each of which add 10pts to the team who scores. So selling away team minis is a pretty safe bet on the down-side, rarely do away teams score highly in league games, in fact last season's full results show that in only 41 games of the total of 2,036 did the away team score 4 goals or more.

2% of the total and you should be on pretty safe ground - that means fewer than 1 game from a weekend's fixtures should see the away side scoring 4 goals or more.

Prior to yesterday's results, of the 887 games played, the away side scored 4 or more on just 19 occasions. So nothing startling there, this season is following the 2% trend.

My away sells are (supposed to be) selecting those sides who are likely to under-perform away from home, but of my last 9 sells of away teams mini-perfs, no fewer than FOUR have knocked in 4 goals (two of them yesterday) . . . putting severe dents in the possible profits.

On the face of it you'd think I should be examining my methods . . but overall I'm showing a healthy return on these trades this season, despite their high strike rate of bucking the trends.

No, I think it is nothing more than a good illustration of the obstacles thrown in the path of every trader . . "That's never happened before", always does at some time, so expect the worse, it WILL happen.

. . . and today is another day.

Happy spreading,

 

[Data Miner]

Monday 11 December 2006

2 wins from 3 yesterday brought a profit of 78.35pts, so now standing at minus 189.6 pts to c/fwd.

Just a single trade today, 3pt sell of Ayr distances with the 57 offered by Spreadex

Happy spreading,

 

[Data Miner]

Now back at my desk . . . .

Unexpected & unscheduled away day (well, away 36 hours) has saved me from losing money over the past couple of racedays?

Monday's sell of distances at Ayr went, to say the least, against me somewhat and added another 147 nails into December's coffin. Distance making-up over 100 points! I detected something was up when distances were standing at 55 after 2 races, with 5 more to come. (I'd sold for 3pts @ 57)

A December deficit of 336.6 might take some reversing at this stage of the month, Christmas holidays, etc.

Won't stop me trying though . . . it takes more than a few reversals to knock me out of my stride.

Today at Catterick I'm selling both distances & SPs
Exeter selling distances

Happy spreading,

 

[Data Miner]

Friday 15 December 2006

Yesterday's 1W 2L push December's bank another 36.15pts in the wrong direction, ah well, s'only money.

minus 372.76pts B/Fwd

2 trades today at Uttoxeter, selling distances @ 53 and selling Favs @ 77


Happy spreading,

 

[Data Miner]

Yesterday's 1W & 1L yielded a profit of +105.25, a step closer to recovery?

Today I'm selling Haydock distances & SPs. At Newcastle I'm selling distances & buying the favourites spread.

On the football mini-performance front it seems like I'm taking on half of the football league programme with;

(ALL buys)
Reading
Burnley
Colchester
Ipswich
QPR
Sheffield Wed
Oldham
Barnet
Notts County
Accrington
MK Dons
Shrewsbury
Swindon

Happy spreading

 

[Data Miner]

In The Black Again

Yesterday's 1W & 1L yielded a profit of +105.25, a step closer to recovery?

Sunday 17 December 2006

Good day's racing yesterday, despite the 33/1 in the penultimate race at Haydock hitting my SP sell. 88.7 pts profit came from the racing.

Best of all was my re-vamped football minis, contributing a healthy 205.41 points profit into the kitty. Overall therefore, a 294.11 gain on the day bringing the December account into the black part of the scale.

With no action today, I'm carrying forward 26.61 points profit.

What a difference two days can make

Strange how quickly things can turn around in this game, a couple of days ago I was a wounded animal burdened with a 372 point loss and wondering if there was time left to recover. Suddenly I'm back in a position where my 250 point target is looking more realistic.

Much easier to be upbeat with a profit in the pocket, isn't it? :cheesy:

Happy spreading

 

[Data Miner]

Monday 18 december 2006

No action today, 26.61 points December profit retained to carry forward

Happy spreading

 

[Data Miner]

Tuesday 19 December 2006

+26.61 pts brought forward.

Selling Ayr distances 3pts @ 56 with Spreadex

Happy spreading

 

[Data Miner]

A late second trade of the day, this time football mini-performances.
I'm buying Northampton's mini-perf for 3pts @ 25

Happy spreading

 

[Data Miner]

Wednesday 20 December 2006

Yesterday I first taketh from the afternoon's racing, but later giveth back on the evening's football.

Overall, leaving me a +5.1 gain on the day. So, now +31.71 pts brought forward.

Selling Muss distances and SPs today.

Happy spreading