Someone has got to be trading forex profitably ?

[soccer_daemon]

Hi I am a newbie in this and after having read many posts here about various
people's experience with different trading system (some sound like scams) they
bought and also various individual's experience/skiils in trading the forex and
also consider there are so many gurus out there claim to have the magic bullet
in trading forex, it makes me wonder there's got to be someone in this forum
who really trade very profitably and earning a decent living doing this (of couse
with all the hardworks before), and if so, could anyone give me a clue on who
these gurus are in terms of categories:

1) Professional trader working for banks/large corps with solid relevant
background and experience in the trading career ?
2) Professional fund managers, hedgers ?
3) Individual advanced traders who are not affiliated with any organisation ?
4) The so-called part-time trader who has a day-job and is embarkig on a long
painful journey to the trading arena ?
5) None of the above

Does anyone have an estimate of breakdown in percentage of the types of
participants in forex trading and the overall performance/result of their trading ?

My guess is that if category 4) is always the biggest loser among the categories
above, does it highlight the fact that perhaps it is indeed extremely difficult or
even impossible for one coming from a completely different background to hone
the right skills & experience within a reasonable period of time and be able to do
well in forex trading for a living ?

The reason I post this question is that I am sick of so called trading gurus who
are out there preying on these group of people (I will be one in the same group)
selling trading secrets/system/training/seminars where most of the time they
are either bogus or work less than half the time or too hard to implement in the
real world situation or it may just work occassional purely on luck or fluke.

I honestly don't believe anyone who has done it really well will spill the beans &
share it with the rest of the world just because they love sharing and helping
others ... call me cycnical but we are dealing with reality in trading money.

So if there are some among you who are perhaps not in category 4) but have
gone through the long painful process, what can you say and offer in as simple
as in one sentence valuable advise that is comprehensible, not ambiguous,
not abstract, not phillospohical but down to earth plain English for the newbies
the essential things to work on ?

Well, I am not asking for secret or tips or magic bullet or holly grail here. I am
asking for a piece of advise in formulating an approach/method in a systematic
way whose process is repeatable and objective, logical and not emotional
bias, what would you say ?

LOng winded I know ... if this is too much just give it a pass as I don't want
anyone wasting his/her time.

SD

 

[Trader333]

In my view Forex trading is more difficult than trading stocks although, as you say, there must be people who are making money trading it.

I recently read an article and I attach a quote from a respected expert in the Forex field:

Michael Solt, a finance professor at San Jose State University, puts a fine point on the bank account-draining possibilities of the forex game. Sitting in his office, Solt whips out a stack of data - stats on the yen, British pound, and Canadian dollar. He grabs a pencil and circles a number at the bottom of a page full of figures. "See this?" Solt asks. "You can sum this up by saying the risk [of loss] is 125 times greater than the average return on the yen." In other words, people betting on Japanese currency are 125 times more likely to lose money than to make it. The pound and Canadian dollar aren't much better.

For small investors, trading currency online is like "playing the roulette wheel," Odean suggests, before correcting himself. "Actually, it's harder than the roulette wheel."

It is important to have this realisation before jumping into an arena like this with the view that making money in this will be easy because it wont be. That said if you persevere then you may be one of the very few who do make money.


Paul

 

[JonnyT]

I have to conclude that Michael Solt is completely wrong.

It is easier to day trade currencies than it is Stocks IMHO

In purely percentage terms he is right, but when you consider margin he is wrong big time.

JonnyT

 

[Hazey]

The most anyone will be willing to tell you in one sentence is:

"BUY LOW SELL HIGH - The rest is up to you".

Just think of how rewarding it will be when you work it out for yourself.

 

[ZigZag]

Soccer,
Congratulations you are half way to your goal. It took me 2 years of frustration to ask myself the same question. Successful Investing, speculating or gambling (call it what you will) relies on cold unemotional confidence on ones METHOD when participating in any market. In the arena in question confidence is gained by implementing tactics based on probability. This research should be yours and yours alone. (unless you can afford to employ a statatician but not the one mentioned in an earlier post.) This solution would not suit my personality as I need to know how solutions are resolved through an understanding of the basics. I needed to buy several books on statistics to understand what I was reading. However to simplify your endeavours seek out the construction of probability frequency tables/histograms. You will find many instructive sites on the web using GOOGLE.
Observation is the first stage to produce a trading plan.
I favour FXtrekcharts but also use FXCM . The good news is both are free. (I trreat my trading as a business. If I can reduce my costs I will grab it with both hands) Display the hourly candlestick chart. You will have to ZOOM in for particular days. Apart from M.A.s DO NOT use any other indicators. Dont just look at the graph willy nilly seek out correlations in price and/or time and/or individual bars. When you believe you have an idea start from the the first day of the hourly chart and forcast the second day for your entry,exit and stop loss. Continue to the last day and constuct a frequency table of your results.
Dont expect your first ideas to reap rewards. But the longer you try different ideas will come to you.
To summarise: Observation...>..method..>.trading plan.(includes money management).= confidence.
Send me a P.M. if you need clarification.
Good Luck

 

[commanderco]

They say that 95% of all Traders lose their funds.

Now turn that around.

5% of the people walk off with 100% of the money.

 

[JP1966]

I fail to see how that logic works. Traders don't trade with each other but rather with banks and brokers.

 

[commanderco]

I fail to see how that logic works. Traders don't trade with each other but rather with banks and brokers.

JP
Lighten up.
It is a figure of speech and an example of turning -ve thought into +ve thought.

 

[TWI]

Two things to look for Ranges and Break outs. that is it. No matter what time scale you use or what signals, this is what it comes down to. Personally I always assume the former and get forced into the latter.
Here is some other thoughts:
1. Never take a trade unless you have conviction, a reason and a well thought out plan with "what if's" BEFORE you enter the trade
2. Do not let a very profitable trade turn into a loss
3. Have a mental or actual stop for every trade
4. When a mental stop is hit, it is a market order with no exceptions
5. Trade so you feel you are trading too small and never take an initial position you are uncomfortable with. If you do then fear will eat you up and you are doomed from the start.
6. Trade smaller when losing, larger when on a roll
7. Do not be afraid to increase your position if you are right and profitable, this is hard to do.
8. Trade a variety of markets simultaneously
9. There is nothing wrong with doing nothing, wait for the right opportunity, these do not come along all the time.
10. Do not hesitate, if you are not confident, do nothing

 

[JP1966]

JP
Lighten up.
It is a figure of speech and an example of turning -ve thought into +ve thought.

Fair point, apologies!

 

[amir581]

Trading forex is extremely difficult. I used to trade stocks and options before I jumped into this market. I below up my forex account twice in the beginning but I never gave up. I attended almost every seminar and bought all different kind of systems from so called gurus. They all are scams, the only person who is making money from these systems is the person who is selling them. I tell you one thing, I put in a lot of time, money and efforts into this and now I am making profit on consistent basis. I don’t use these guru’s strategies, I follow the basic principle “Support and Resistance”. I use 100ema, 62ema, fibs values, trend lines, chart patterns and pivot points to identify support and resistance. If I can do it, anybody can do it.

 

[commanderco]

Trading forex is extremely difficult. I used to trade stocks and options before I jumped into this market. I below up my forex account twice in the beginning but I never gave up. I attended almost every seminar and bought all different kind of systems from so called gurus. They all are scams, the only person who is making money from these systems is the person who is selling them. I tell you one thing, I put in a lot of time, money and efforts into this and now I am making profit on consistent basis. I don’t use these guru’s strategies, I follow the basic principle “Support and Resistance”. I use 100ema, 62ema, fibs values, trend lines, chart patterns and pivot points to identify support and resistance. If I can do it, anybody can do it.

AMIR 581
I am glad that you are making steady pips ... it is the key to success in a highly leveraged
game.

May I suggest that the reason you believe "Trading forex is extremely difficult."
is because you make it difficult.
Firstly, continue doing what you do because you are succesfull.
And then, try to see that all the tools that you use are simply functions of HLC and
mostly lagging at that.
Pull them apart one by one and try reconstructing them by hand and you will come to
understand how the HLC actually works.
Bit by bit I am willing to bet that you delete most of these tools and that the EMA´s will be the last to surrender.
I am also willing to bet that your weekly pips and ratios settle down even further, thus
increasing your confidence to increase your trade sizing.

If I am interfering, just ignore this message.
If I am correct, you can buy me a beer as I am just down the road from you in
Buenos Aires.

 

[philhackett]

Forex is simple when you know how.

Email me and I will put you on course.

Phil

QUOTE=soccer_daemon]Hi I am a newbie in this and after having read many posts here
various
people's experience with different trading system (some sound like scams) they
bought and also various individual's experience/skiils in trading the forex and
also consider there are so many gurus out there claim to have the magic bullet
in trading forex, it makes me wonder there's got to be someone in this forum
who really trade very profitably and earning a decent living doing this (of couse
with all the hardworks before), and if so, could anyone give me a clue on who
these gurus are in terms of categories:

1) Professional trader working for banks/large corps with solid relevant
background and experience in the trading career ?
2) Professional fund managers, hedgers ?
3) Individual advanced traders who are not affiliated with any organisation ?
4) The so-called part-time trader who has a day-job and is embarkig on a long
painful journey to the trading arena ?
5) None of the above

Does anyone have an estimate of breakdown in percentage of the types of
participants in forex trading and the overall performance/result of their trading ?

My guess is that if category 4) is always the biggest loser among the categories
above, does it highlight the fact that perhaps it is indeed extremely difficult or
even impossible for one coming from a completely different background to hone
the right skills & experience within a reasonable period of time and be able to do
well in forex trading for a living ?

The reason I post this question is that I am sick of so called trading gurus who
are out there preying on these group of people (I will be one in the same group)
selling trading secrets/system/training/seminars where most of the time they
are either bogus or work less than half the time or too hard to implement in the
real world situation or it may just work occassional purely on luck or fluke.

I honestly don't believe anyone who has done it really well will spill the beans &
share it with the rest of the world just because they love sharing and helping
others ... call me cycnical but we are dealing with reality in trading money.

So if there are some among you who are perhaps not in category 4) but have
gone through the long painful process, what can you say and offer in as simple
as in one sentence valuable advise that is comprehensible, not ambiguous,
not abstract, not phillospohical but down to earth plain English for the newbies
the essential things to work on ?

Well, I am not asking for secret or tips or magic bullet or holly grail here. I am
asking for a piece of advise in formulating an approach/method in a systematic
way whose process is repeatable and objective, logical and not emotional
bias, what would you say ?

LOng winded I know ... if this is too much just give it a pass as I don't want
anyone wasting his/her time.

SD[/QUOTE]

 

[Dekoob]

soccer daemon.

I wonder did you ever find the answers to your questions ?

Dekoob

 

[soccer_daemon]

Hi Dekoob

I got many really good advises to say the least and now I am paying MUCH MUCH MORE
attention to S/R, HLC and Fib level and I also have the habbit to plot pivot point levels though
I tend not to use it much.

Whether or not I will succeed in the end is something I am working really hard at right now ..

soccer daemon.

I wonder did you ever find the answers to your questions ?

Dekoob

 

[commanderco]

Hi Dekoob

I got many really good advises to say the least and now I am paying MUCH MUCH MORE
attention to S/R, HLC and Fib level and I also have the habbit to plot pivot point levels though
I tend not to use it much.

Whether or not I will succeed in the end is something I am working really hard at right now ..

It is all in the mind.
"If I succeed" is not an option .... try harder

 

[Ross-G]

It is all in the mind.
"If I succeed" is not an option .... try harder

Is this really a wise motif?

Is it not the case that the counterparties love you to try harder and harder till you're bust?

Maybe it's better to try trading SMARTER not trying harder?

 

[tommog]

HI,

I have been trading forex for about a year (was stocks before that for a few years) and only now can i say that i am consistant trader (about as consistant as you can get, you will never be right all the time) and i have to say the "turning point" in my trading, which i think all experienced traders have had, was when i stopped trying to scalp the market, i think people fall in love with the buzz of lots of fast trades being made at the pulse of the market. I tried doing this for years but you have to be a far better man than me consistantly scalp a market at retail level (not saying it can't be done, just it is very very hard), as soon as i moved down to trading off an hourly chart, did i start making good money, its a fantastic feeling sitting on the sidelines watching all the poor inexperienced, over-leveraged traders killing themselves fighting for scraps in the "5 minute market" and you are able to hop on board the momentum of the trend when all the scalpers have finished deciding which way to push the market , only to get off again when it gets scrappy.

My advice is find a system that works pretty well on a 5 or 10 minute chart, then apply this to a longer time frame and guarantee you will be far more profitable.

I usually have one, sometimes 2 trades a day, which is nothing compared to how many i used to trade, but that one trade a day is designed to capture the trend of the day and when you think EUR/USD frequently moves over 100 pips in one direction in a day you can even make great money joining a trend late,

Also i would advise you pay attention to which hours of the day the market get choppy and stay well clear of them, i trade 6am-10:30am and 12pm- 5pm london time and find these hours fairly reliable

Good luck,

Tom

 

[gus]

AMIR 581
I am glad that you are making steady pips ... it is the key to success in a highly leveraged
game.

May I suggest that the reason you believe "Trading forex is extremely difficult."
is because you make it difficult.
Firstly, continue doing what you do because you are succesfull.
And then, try to see that all the tools that you use are simply functions of HLC and
mostly lagging at that.
Pull them apart one by one and try reconstructing them by hand and you will come to
understand how the HLC actually works.
Bit by bit I am willing to bet that you delete most of these tools and that the EMA´s will be the last to surrender.
I am also willing to bet that your weekly pips and ratios settle down even further, thus
increasing your confidence to increase your trade sizing.

If I am interfering, just ignore this message.
If I am correct, you can buy me a beer as I am just down the road from you in
Buenos Aires.

Enjoyed that - just down the road from you only 4,660 miles (air straight line - golly by road what would it be??)

 

[zhk]

Hi
I am a newbie, live in USA and want to know from traders which platform and broker would they recommend
Regards
Zhk