Shortin the Dow

mobanded said:
Hi

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...h-warns-SocGen-strategist-Albert-Edwards.html

This article is, to my mind, a very good analysis of today's financial world. Is it worth shorting the Dow continually (or one trade starting tomorrow) until such time it drops to, say, 5,500 ish?

Mobanded
Click to expand...


No. It's the purest gamble to try to pick the top of a market. There can be no evidence that we have reached a top until after we have actually passed it, as only downward price moves can confirm a top. If it's as significant a move down as commentators are suggesting, there will be ample time to get in.
 
My take is that when so many 'experts' are predicting something it's best to assume the opposite will happen. Going long and holding any index is far more likely to be profitable.
 
Ross Spur said:
My take is that when so many 'experts' are predicting something it's best to assume the opposite will happen. Going long and holding any index is far more likely to be profitable.
Click to expand...


I don't see this as a 'trading' option but if you want consistent dividends, buy and hold the index i-shares, time frame = never sell.
 
tomorton said:
No. It's the purest gamble to try to pick the top of a market. There can be no evidence that we have reached a top until after we have actually passed it, as only downward price moves can confirm a top. If it's as significant a move down as commentators are suggesting, there will be ample time to get in.
Click to expand...

tomorton

I agree that it's the purest gamble to pick the top or bottom in any given period. However, an awful lot of so called experts/pros are suggesting the possibility of the Dow ascending dramatically in the near future (up to October) is virtually zilch. I am content, for the time being, to follow the flow/majority opinion. Also, as you know from my other thread, I have a vested interest .

Mobanded

 
Ross Spur said:
My take is that when so many 'experts' are predicting something it's best to assume the opposite will happen. Going long and holding any index is far more likely to be profitable.
Click to expand...

Ross Spur

It takes a brave (stupid!) trader to go in the opposite direction to the experts, but, of course, they have been known to be wrong (I'm having my cake and eating it!)

Mobanded
 
mobanded said:
tomorton

I agree that it's the purest gamble to pick the top or bottom in any given period. However, an awful lot of so called experts/pros are suggesting the possibility of the Dow ascending dramatically in the near future (up to October) is virtually zilch. I am content, for the time being, to follow the flow/majority opinion. Also, as you know from my other thread, I have a vested interest .

Mobanded
Click to expand...


I love your attitude Mob, don't let the conventional wisdom beat you down. If it's money you can afford to lose, which I think you have said it is, and I don't think there's a huge risk anyway that the Dow might rise, you could make a killing.
 
mobanded said:
Ross Spur

You reckon the Dow could go up to by 10,000 from its current close to over 20,000. That is a brave forecast but I doubt it will happen in my lifetime.

Mobanded
Click to expand...

Maybe, but remember it's not that long ago that the Dow broke through 10k for the first time and then went on to 14k, even when there seemed to be no logical reason for a continued rise. No idea how far into the future, but it could hit 20k in the next phase of the boom and crash sequence.
 
tomorton said:
I love your attitude Mob, don't let the conventional wisdom beat you down. If it's money you can afford to lose, which I think you have said it is, and I don't think there's a huge risk anyway that the Dow might rise, you could make a killing.
Click to expand...

Hi tomortion

I suppose I can afford to lose it because it is profit from previous trades but nevertheless I wouldn't like to. I would not normally try second guess the direction of the Dow (my system does that for me) but indications are that it is going down before recovering in any meaningful way.

Mobanded
 
Ross Spur said:
Maybe, but remember it's not that long ago that the Dow broke through 10k for the first time and then went on to 14k, even when there seemed to be no logical reason for a continued rise. No idea how far into the future, but it could hit 20k in the next phase of the boom and crash sequence.
Click to expand...

I hope that come that day, I am Long, long, long.
 
mobanded said:
indications are that it is going down before recovering in any meaningful way.

Mobanded
Click to expand...

It depends what you think of as a recovery, I suppose, but Dow rising into the Friday close, no big news announcements, and just being Monday makes me think we'll have gains tomorrow. Double bottom, also.
 
Ross Spur said:
It depends what you think of as a recovery, I suppose, but Dow rising into the Friday close, no big news announcements, and just being Monday makes me think we'll have gains tomorrow. Double bottom, also.
Click to expand...

I can say with no more evidence than a gut feeling,that I think Friday's move up was caused by market makers/traders manipulation on low volume. If I am right the Dow should rectify the situation by going lower by 3 a.m. when most of the Asian markets are open.

As I said GUT FEELING only.

Mobanded
 
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