Sensitivity To Chaos?

[SOCRATES]

Add this to the mix folks...

http://www.sheldrake.org/

The recorded debate between Professor Lewis Wolpert and Dr Rupert Sheldrake makes for very interesting listening.

 

[new_trader]

Regarding your latter question, I don't think so, because (regardless of whether anyone can do it in the first place) there is nothing chaotic about the progression of numbers on, say, a roulette wheel, as these are merely simple independent probabilities. If a 5 comes up on the wheel this doesn't affect the next spin. However if someone buys even just a 1 lot this will effect the market condition to some degree. Think of the 1 lot as as the humble butterfly flapping its wings: it may have more effect down the line than one would imagine. In this sense there is a feedback loop in the market which is absent from the casino.



Simple intro to chaos here: http://www.imho.com/grae/chaos/chaos.html

True. But I was thinking more about one of the main issues of chaos theory - Sensitivity to initial conditions, as explained in the article you provided

Another system in which sensitive dependence on initial conditions is evident is the flip of a coin. There are two variables in a flipping coin: how soon it hits the ground, and how fast it is flipping. Theoretically, it should be possible to control these variables entirely and control how the coin will end up. In practice, it is impossible to control exactly how fast the coin flips and how high it flips. It is possible to put the variables into a certain range, but it is impossible to control it enough to know the final results of the coin toss.

 

[c6ackp]

0110

Incorrect

 

[Tuffty]

Looks like to get the answer 'right' you only have to correctly guess the next two digits. The wording also infers that even this is not at a 100% accuracy rate; mentions 80% for the first day.

www.sunderland.ac.uk/caffairs/202mar4.htm



Yep, I'm very sceptical but open minded.

 

[c6ackp]

The correct answer is:

1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0

I bet you are kicking yourself now. It's a head 'n' shoulders followed by 1010 congestion...

 

[frugi]

Tintin?

Only 11 choices left.

Tin tin? Ixcellent. Forgive the South African accent.

 

[Racer]

The correct answer is:

1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0

I bet you are kicking yourself now. It's a head 'n' shoulders followed by 1010 congestion...

very good but who determined this was the correct answer and this sequence was chaotic in the first place?

 

[c6ackp]

The academic who conducted the study is Richard Heath at the University of Sunderland. He used a sequence of max. daily temperatures for his study - I'm not sure how the example binary sequence was derived...

 

[blackcab]

The correct answer is:

1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0

I bet you are kicking yourself now. It's a head 'n' shoulders followed by 1010 congestion...

I must be in the 75% AND very thick.

Try this one - have a go at predicting the next 7 numbers, or just describe the shape of the curve over the next 7 points. Like a price chart, the scale may, or may not, change when the next 7 points are plotted. I'll post the answer if a few people want to have a go and we'll see the results

 

[frugi]

Good old Google.

This seems to be a radio transcript where Heath describes his experiment.

http://www.fortunecity.com/emachines/e11/86/world/world50.rtf

Also an article here

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/science/thematerialworld_20020411.shtml

The equation was derived from the "Henon Attractor" which is a pair of deterministic equations.
Old values of x are fed back into the equation (with other variables) to create the new value of x.

http://hypatia.math.uri.edu/~kulenm/diffeqaturi/gregg442/gregghenon.html

http://chaos.ph.utexas.edu/research/dsane/slog.html

PS

Newtrader, sorry, I see what you meant about the casino now (I'm a bit slow) -

"Of course,in a game like Roulette where you can actually watch the game start before your place your bet, you might be able to make some useful prediction.

[In fact mathematician Doyne Farmer managed to exploit the Newtonian Rules of the Roulette wheel to bend the odds in his favour by exploiting a computer in his shoe- he's since been outlawed from Las Vegas -LB
Ref: Video N30 "The Numbers Game redicting the Future" ]"

So it is possible to predict the result of one spin from observing the initial conditions.

However I initially thought you were talking about being able to predict the next few results by simply observing the pattern of (random) numbers e.g. 5, 12, 16, 32 and this is what I referred to in my previous post.

Blackcab is your graph the result of a deterministic equation?

 

[c6ackp]

Try this one - have a go at predicting the next 7 numbers, or just describe the shape of the curve over the next 7 points. Like a price chart, the scale may, or may not, change when the next 7 points are plotted. I'll post the answer if a few people want to have a go and we'll see the results

If it was a cable tick chart, I'd short it! But the outcome would largely depend on the state of the 15min chart, can you post that too?

 

[pezzutti]

0110 but I guess this makes really no sense. Funny but it makes no sense

 

[SOCRATES]

0110 but I guess this makes really no sense. Funny but it makes no sense

Of course it doesn't make any sense, or have you just realised ? Otherwise I would have pounced on it several posts back. ....April fool leg pull, that's what it is...

 

[blackcab]

If it was a cable tick chart, I'd short it! But the outcome would largely depend on the state of the 15min chart, can you post that too?

Now I look at it again it was a **** poor attempt at a chaotic series and it all boiled down to y=sin(x)*cos(x)^2. I shouldn't have rushed it.

 

[cgoodwinca]

We know that the financial markets are not random in nature. A financial market is a critical/chaotic system (like earthquakes, which could be regarded as super-critical).

Do some people have a sensitivity to chaos?

A researcher at the University of Sunderland has performed a study which suggests that 25% of the population are sensitive to chaos. The researchers are interested in developing a reliable chaos-sensitivity test to identify these individuals. This test may be of interest to investment banks and hedge funds to find employees who have the potential to develop a greater performance edge.

Here's a short chaotic binary sequence:

1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0

Can you predict the next 4 digits?




P.S. Anyone have any other references regarding chaos sensitivity or testing?

1112......... 101 is sequential to 100 and 112 follows 111 with the 2 creating extreme chaos in the whole concept.