Sensitivity To Chaos?

[c6ackp]

We know that the financial markets are not random in nature. A financial market is a critical/chaotic system (like earthquakes, which could be regarded as super-critical).

Do some people have a sensitivity to chaos?

A researcher at the University of Sunderland has performed a study which suggests that 25% of the population are sensitive to chaos. The researchers are interested in developing a reliable chaos-sensitivity test to identify these individuals. This test may be of interest to investment banks and hedge funds to find employees who have the potential to develop a greater performance edge.

Here's a short chaotic binary sequence:

1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0

Can you predict the next 4 digits?




P.S. Anyone have any other references regarding chaos sensitivity or testing?

 

[Glenn]

"Do some people have a sensitivity to chaos?"
Not clear what you mean. Do you mean some ability to see through the chaos and come up with some kind of structure ?

"1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0
Can you predict the next 4 digits?"

0000

Glenn

 

[fxmarkets]

0001 and thats a goer........ not sure if it ties in with your binary study. But I know why ive picked those digits but wont explain so others can form a view without any or less pollution maybe.....

wouldn't call it prediction though , observation of frequent behaviour digit 5 would be a pointer though at that point then it could be 1 or 0

Fx.

cool, do you get the same code in markets as you do in nature earthquakes then ? ooooerrr weird if so....

 

[trendie]

......
Here's a short chaotic binary sequence:

1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0

Can you predict the next 4 digits?

0 1 0 0

( There are only 10 kinds of people in the world. Those that understand binary, and those that dont. )

 

[Charlton]

The real answer lies in the question

We know that the financial markets are not random in nature. A financial market is a critical/chaotic system (like earthquakes, which could be regarded as super-critical).

Do some people have a sensitivity to chaos?

A researcher at the University of Sunderland has performed a study which suggests that 25% of the population are sensitive to chaos. The researchers are interested in developing a reliable chaos-sensitivity test to identify these individuals. This test may be of interest to investment banks and hedge funds to find employees who have the potential to develop a greater performance edge.

Here's a short chaotic binary sequence:

1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0

Can you predict the next 4 digits?




P.S. Anyone have any other references regarding chaos sensitivity or testing?

I would go, publicly, for the simplistic approach 0111 based on a repeating series, but I will give my real answer by PM


Charlton

 

[c6ackp]

Glenn - Yes, the contention is that some people are naturally sensitive to chaotic behaviour and can therefore see the hidden structure behind such systems.

Here's a quote from the researcher:

Some guys can't communicate what they are doing, but they make millions. They have some sort of intuition. My guess is that they are sensitive to subtle non-linear structures like chaos"

0000, 0001, 0100, 0111 are incorrect...

 

[fxmarkets]

"Some guys can't communicate what they are doing, but they make millions. They have some sort of intuition. My guess is that they are sensitive to subtle non-linear structures like chaos"


Are you sure those guys are just , refusing to tell people whats going on in the markets? I mean would you? Millions, Billions . hmmm.

 

[fxmarkets]

Thinking about it, it ties it with what frequently been written about some traders , something along the lines of the author summing up with "They just do what they do but cant explain it"

thats very diplomatic code for F*** Off you dont thinking im answering that one?


Enhancing or regaining our natural intuition though is a positive, but is there any place for it in todays production line of existence? Lordy..

Fx.

 

[chump]

"Sensitivity To Chaos? "

Sensitivity to chumps ...spot the difference ...LOL ...or should it be that one arises from the other.

 

[fxmarkets]

all brothers equal chump. Sensitivity though becomes a non issue, its probably up there as sensitive and as subtle as a gorilla dressing you with a sheath. Do we need intuition to become aware of that act... hence traders that cant explain it are........ what?

 

[Glenn]

OK I got stopped out on that one.
My premise was the series 1,2,4,8, etc doubling up each time. i.e.
1
00
1111
00000000
1111111111111111
etc.

No doubt there are other possibilities, and if they all comply with the data given then who is to say which is 'right' ?
Are the researchers good traders or just academics postulating theories to keep their research funding coming in?

Glenn

Glenn - Yes, the contention is that some people are naturally sensitive to chaotic behaviour and can therefore see the hidden structure behind such systems.

Here's a quote from the researcher:




0000, 0001, 0100, 0111 are incorrect...

 

[c6ackp]

OK I got stopped out on that one.
My premise was the series 1,2,4,8, etc doubling up each time. i.e.
1
00
1111
00000000
1111111111111111
etc.

Glenn - you are looking at the problem from a logical (left brain) viewpoint.

The test is not a regular riddle or anything you are likely to see on a mensa quiz.

What the researchers are saying is that some people (25%) have the ability to predict future values of any chaotic sequence which lacks any perceptible pattern.

 

[frugi]

Tintin?

Only 11 choices left.

As might be expected:

"Mandelbrot has always modelled price fluctuations as a fractal but unpredictable process. He hasn't excluded the possiblity that price changes can be predicted, but none of his models or theories even attempt to provide any directional price predictions, or to suggest that such would even be possible". (ET)

Unless given a portion of the sequence some can do this intuitively. Patterns of choas appear throughout nature so perhaps it is possible we are subconsciously attuned to them, though it does sound unlikely.

Besides, I think that trying to predict prices through some use of chaos theory is perhaps akin to using a vernier caliper to crack walnuts. Can produce interesting results, but it's clearly the wrong tool.

 

[Racer]

A researcher at the University of Sunderland has performed a study which suggests that 25% of the population are sensitive to chaos. The researchers are interested in developing a reliable chaos-sensitivity test to identify these individuals.

What have they been doing for more than four years?

 

[new_trader]

Glenn - you are looking at the problem from a logical (left brain) viewpoint.

The test is not a regular riddle or anything you are likely to see on a mensa quiz.

What the researchers are saying is that some people (25%) have the ability to predict future values of any chaotic sequence which lacks any perceptible pattern.

Surely this is nothing more than luck. If were truly possible and as high as 25% don't you think all casino's would be bankrupt by now?

 

[frugi]

Regarding your latter question, I don't think so, because (regardless of whether anyone can do it in the first place) there is nothing chaotic about the progression of numbers on, say, a roulette wheel, as these are merely simple independent probabilities. If a 5 comes up on the wheel this doesn't affect the next spin. However if someone buys even just a 1 lot this will effect the market condition to some degree. Think of the 1 lot as as the humble butterfly flapping its wings: it may have more effect down the line than one would imagine. In this sense there is a feedback loop in the market which is absent from the casino.

The flapping of a single butterfly's wing today produces a tiny change in the state of the atmosphere. Over a period of time, what the atmosphere actually does diverges from what it would have done. So, in a month's time, a tornado that would have devastated the Indonesian coast doesn't happen. Or maybe one that wasn't going to happen, does. (Ian Stewart, Does God Play Dice?

Simple intro to chaos here: http://www.imho.com/grae/chaos/chaos.html

 

[fxmarkets]

What the researchers are saying is that some people (25%) have the ability to predict future values of any chaotic sequence which lacks any perceptible pattern.

Huh... why the dickens are they running that test on potential market traders then? do they want to send banks mystic meg types? are they not better filtering the ones who see the chaos,confusion and percetible patterns.? dont tell me they been doing that for years already? and still no joy?


Perhaps again further developing of intuition will help if you rely heavily on that if total clarity is not present. And perhaps intuitive states of mind may in some way open up conscious neutral perception of externals , assisting a trader to begin to ummm fill the lack of perceptible patterns



hmm, sounds like they are not the finder of lost children at this stage with it all.

Good luck to them.

Fx.

 

[SOCRATES]

all brothers equal chump. Sensitivity though becomes a non issue, its probably up there as sensitive and as subtle as a gorilla dressing you with a sheath. Do we need intuition to become aware of that act... hence traders that cant explain it are........ what?

Answer:~

Simple...protective of every aspect of every detail of what gives them and allows them to retain their portfolio of edges.

 

[Rich14304]

Perhaps again further developing of intuition will help if you rely heavily on that if total clarity is not present. And perhaps intuitive states of mind may in some way open up conscious neutral perception of externals , assisting a trader to begin to ummm fill the lack of perceptible patterns Fx.

Add this to the mix folks...

http://www.sheldrake.org/

 

[Windowsill]

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