S&P 500 Pivot Dates

[hwsteele]

We now have a lower low with todays low of around 827. Today's high puts the move up right at the 50% retracement of the first move down, If it is that and not just the latest pullback of a large uptrend.
Now the question is "up to a new high past 876 or down closer to the 775 area"?
The calculations currently show the 22, 23, and 24 to be pivot days with the 22 and 24 looking the strongest.





514

 

[hwsteele]

With the move up today and then the close down below the opening, today may have given us our first lower high in a new down trend. We will have to wait and see what happens tomorrow. With both tomorrow and friday showing to be pivot days it may be possible to just move sideways for the rest of the week. I tend to favor the downside at this point as tomorrows pivot looks weaker than fridays. We MAY move up a smaller amount tomorrow with a bigger move down again on friday.

 

[hwsteele]

Sorry it has been so long. I moved this last week and a half and it was great FUN. Just in case you're wondering that was a lie.:cheesy:

I have not been trading at all during that time and didn't look at the markets but about three times for a couple of minutes.

So just a quick pivot post today:

The low on April 21st gave today as a pivot day and then also next Monday (5-10-09).
The high on April 17th points to 5-6-09. The low back on April 7th also points to 5-6-09.
Remember that 920 is our next major resistance area in price on the up side.








538

 

[hwsteele]

We made it just a tad higher today than yesterdays high. Looking for monday to be a pivot day.
Remember that the March 6th low points to the May 11th or 12th as a bigger pivot in time.
We may now see the market head down for a while.
If it does then 875, 825, and then 800 would be the numbers to look for.
We also have what may turn out to be a good fold back on the daily chart.
If it holds true the market would bend back down.
We might even see 700 again. After that we could see the market head up for some time.
Time will tell.






545

 

[KTF]

Hey, can you explain fold back in more detail please as I'm not clued up with this term?

 

[hwsteele]

Hey, can you explain fold back in more detail please as I'm not clued up with this term?

A "fold back" is when the chart seems to be doing the same as it had done before but in reverse.
As a result if you find the correct point and "fold" the price action back over its self you can get an idea of what might happen next.

 

[KTF]

Would you expect prices now to move in a similar way as they did pre jan 09 or is it just the thought 930-40 will be strong resistance?
Thanks.

 

[koolblue]

 

[hwsteele]

Would you expect prices now to move in a similar way as they did pre jan 09 or is it just the thought 930-40 will be strong resistance?
Thanks.

The chart explains what I'm thinking about this fold back.

 

[hwsteele]

The market did turn down today now the question is if it will keep going down and stay true to the fold back or if this is just the next retracement for the current move up. I personally believe we have a good chance of retracing at least 50% of the move up from 667.
The 13th does show to be a pivot day.

 

[hwsteele]

The 13th was the low for the last two days.
The 15th shows to be a pivot also, so we may head back down lower again.

 

[hwsteele]

We made it lower again today.
Monday(18th) and Friday(22nd) both show to be pivot days.
My calculations show about 870-872 to be a support zone and then for longer time frame 800-810.
Looking at a price chart of the SPX we see that 870-875 played as resistance twice and then support once so I believe it is a logical next step down.
We will just have to see if the fold back keeps playing out.
Next Wednesday(20th) looks like a pivot also.

 

[hwsteele]

Today, the market made a nice move up to about the 910 level.
We did have a strong move so we may head higher still on Tuesday.
Keep an eye on Wednesday and Friday as both show up as pivot days.

 

[hwsteele]

Here is something I got in an e-mail from a yahoo group I joined along time ago.
It's very interesting, and could mean nothing.:cheesy:

Here is something that some of you probably figured out:

All time high in Cash S&P 500 = 1576.09
August 1982 low = 102.2
1982-2007 points = 1576.09 - 102.2 = 1473.89
61.8% retracement of 1982-2007 move = 1576.09 - 61.8% x 1473.89 = 665.23
March 2009 low = 666.79 a difference of 0.23% from the 61.8% retracement level

Perhaps that was a sheer coincidence!:whistling

 

[hwsteele]

Today does look like a nice pivot. It traded up to almost 925 and then down to close at about 903.50.
Keep an eye on Friday still.
Next friday is also shaping up to be a pivot day also.

 

[hwsteele]

Well now we know for sure that Wednesday was a pivot day. I calculate that the market could hit about 875 before a possible turn up on friday. If that area does not stop the decline then we may be headed back down as low as the 800 price area again.

 

[hwsteele]

Well let's see what the market has in store for us on Tuesday.
Wednesday does show to be a pivot day as does Friday.

 

[hwsteele]

And we move back down again.
Wednesday did turn the market now we shall wait and see about friday.
Thursday also shows a pivot could happen.
We may head back up tomorrow and then down again on Friday.
OR
We might head down more tomorrow and make a bottom and move up on friday.
Time will tell.

 

[koolblue]

I take note that low 662.75 to peak 929.50 =266.75 or 27 calendar days from the 929 top on 5-7.By my count that gives an H.W. Steele turn date of June 3rd. That seems to line up perfectly with Kools Tools cycle low due june 3rd

 

[koolblue]