S&P 500 cash weekly competition for 2013

[mike.]

1551 please atilla.

 

[Gaffs1964]

1577 for me this week please.

 

[wackypete2]

1548

Peter

 

[VielGeld]

1578, yo.

This bull's been gathering steam. Wouldn't be surprised to see it break to all-time highs this week.

 

[China Diapers]

1583 pls

 

[robster970]

1565

 

[Vicorka]

1540

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Strong start for this week, I could have undershot with a 1,575 estimate.

 

[Atilla]

Well, best of luck to you all for the final week of SPX500-2013-QTR1 competition.

Below are two views; first in terms of bulls-v-bears and the second in order of rank, highest to lowest.

With 4 points on the table the possible winners are Gaffs, China Diapers, Mr Weighted Avg and VieGeld. malaguti and mike. also stand a chance of drawing in top place.

I think it will be an exciting finish for the Easter Holidays.

I'm also hoping to do some calculations on improving the charts on how many pips made lost - in the absence of stops and limits.

There will also be a medals table so lots of things to look forward to.

But at the end of the day it is the Points EoW that will rock our world.

 

[Atilla]

Congratulations to carlosd who takes a 2nd gold this quarter. The 4th person to do so.

Big hand to lady Weighted Average and Isatrader too who come 2nd and 3rd on the podium this week.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . carlosd
Weighted Average . . . . . . . . . Isatrader

 

[Atilla]

Hi Everyone,
Weighted Average and Gaffs take joint first places in the S&P500 2013 QTR1 competiton.

China Dipers and VeiGeld take joint second place and Malaguti comes third.

So big hand for the winners this season. They get to walk the red carpet.

.............................Weighted Average
.................................Gaffs1964
.................China Dipers................... Malaguti
....................VeiGeld

Reflecting on the stats I think we genuinely have a great system here with the Weighted Average. Credit to all participants who really go to make it an amazing system imho.

Not only did Weighted Average have a game in hand, it also came tops on the medals table. Also, for those who have been participating for the last couple of years Weighted Average has been a consistent performer. This index was originally created by Pat and further enhanced by Robster's weighted formula. Who needs a black box when we have such talent in the team. Well done everyone. :clap:

 

[robster970]

I think you will find the Pat also came up with the weighted average too - clever bugger isn't he....

 

[Atilla]

I think you will find the Pat also came up with the weighted average too - clever bugger isn't he....

Sorry old fellow Pat and thank you for the correction Robster

Really has some legs that weighted average

 

[VielGeld]

Sweet, I made 2nd place. :cheesy:

Man, that Weighted Average guy is tough to beat. What he lacks in directional calls, he makes up for in sheer accuracy. Goddamn.

Thanks for all the work in handling the sheet as well, Atilla. Major props.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

MY guess for this week is 1,585.

 

[Pat494]

The power of the Weighted Average is thanks to everyone contributing to the competition.
There is just 1 more proviso that I feel I should mention before it happens. Is that occasionally a " spoiler " sort of person will enter a ridiculously high/low figure. I would suggest such an outlyier figure is ignored to keep the WT figure likely. But it is up to Atilla now of course.

 

[robster970]

The power of the Weighted Average is thanks to everyone contributing to the competition.
There is just 1 more proviso that I feel I should mention before it happens. Is that occasionally a " spoiler " sort of person will enter a ridiculously high/low figure. I would suggest such an outlyier figure is ignored to keep the WT figure likely. But it is up to Atilla now of course.

Just to add twopenneth - the weighted average favours those that are performing well and marginalises those that are performing badly over a long run average. It is not likely to respond materially with an outlier prediction unless that outlier comes from one of those performing well. I'm trying to say it self polices Pat and there isn't a need to be concerned about it. With the Mean, your assertion is certainly true but for the Weighted Average, the existence of an outlier as spoiler is very, very limited.

On another note, I have observed that Pete does v.well during bearish markets (as he is a perma-bear) and it is no surprise to me that Viel has done well as he is a perma-bull and conditions right now are bullish.

Over the weekend, I might take the 2012 results to see where in the bull/bear spectrum regular participants are in their predictions vs actual. Then I'll draw it up as a distribution which will be quite 'blocky' but probably quite entertaining to see.

 

[Pat494]

Just to add twopenneth - the weighted average favours those that are performing well and marginalises those that are performing badly over a long run average. It is not likely to respond materially with an outlier prediction unless that outlier comes from one of those performing well. I'm trying to say it self polices Pat and there isn't a need to be concerned about it. With the Mean, your assertion is certainly true but for the Weighted Average, the existence of an outlier as spoiler is very, very limited.

On another note, I have observed that Pete does v.well during bearish markets (as he is a perma-bear) and it is no surprise to me that Viel has done well as he is a perma-bull and conditions right now are bullish.

Over the weekend, I might take the 2012 results to see where in the bull/bear spectrum regular participants are in their predictions vs actual. Then I'll draw it up as a distribution which will be quite 'blocky' but probably quite entertaining to see.

True Rob. More likely to be a typo !

 

[robster970]

So here is the perma-bear vs perma-bull view for 2012.

Negative number = bear, Postive number = bull.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnFF2Rblu36wdGRNQjNXTzVjdldJb2dXdjRVTGs5VVE#gid=7

 

[robster970]

and now a graph demonstrating that your long run predictive bias has little to no bearing in how well you do in the competition annually........

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnFF2Rblu36wdGRNQjNXTzVjdldJb2dXdjRVTGs5VVE#gid=9

Discuss........