Retire out on this one trade.

[DaveT]

Yep, the Arabica Bear Flag (WEEKLY) I highlighted appears to have broken out SOUTH today, with a big range down, and new lows for the move in the July - down 345 points.

However,we must always INTERPRET price action , not blindly forecaast, so how the market behaves from this breakdown will be key to whether we DO see another leg down from here, or a false break followed by recovery...

 

[DaveT]

Robusta continues to have much greater relative strength to Arabica.

We are practically at opposite ends of the chart!

Look at July Robusta - steep upchannel within broader upchannel.

If I was looking to be LONG Coffee IN THE SHORTER TERM, I would have to go with London....

 

[The Baptist]

Relative Strength - Mr Bean!

Robusta continues to have much greater relative strength to Arabica.

We are practically at opposite ends of the chart!

Look at July Robusta - steep upchannel within broader upchannel.

If I was looking to be LONG Coffee IN THE SHORTER TERM, I would have to go with London....

Agreed DaveT, This has been my contention for awhile.

Long term variable strength analysis was done about a year ago by myself, and I have been broadly mistified as to peoples interest on Longs on the US (arab) over Liffe (Rob beans).

I wonder if China are perking up first on the cheaper bean. Anyone know an employee in St*rBuck$ Beijing, It would be interesting to get a break down on their Blend on offer ie. % Rob to Arab in the general blend.

Speaking of St*rBuck$, they had a fall out with Ethipion farmers on there contract provisions and were accused of heavy handidness, which rubbed the 'Fair Trade' brigade up all wrong (rightly so IMO).

This could lead to upward pressure if The Coffee selling association presson this point. EU&UK consumers won't go for percieved 'bully boy Yankee companies' in this environment especially with many other options on hand in the high street.

In UK&EU it seems they are exclusively Arabica beans, stated on Mktg materials anyway.

For those with a passing interest, Arabica is a more temperamental tree and needs planting between certain height levels, It tastes more smooth and mild compared to Robusta's bitter taste and bigger kick, All though the roast also magnifies and tweaks the eventual blend.

I have begun noticing the variety of tastes, given the proliferation of coffee shops and my interest in the commodity. If you need to dump 1/2 kg of sugar in your cuppa, it may have Rob in it or it may just be a particularly strong roast.

Anyway enough fundamental waffle for a techincal trader!

I believe we may have a setting for another continuation pattern brewing on Rob I will post a chart later.Good Luck Coffee Bean traders, Especially Robusta un's.

 

[The Baptist]

Final Rob Downleg?

Final Rob Downleg? have we had it, or is there one still to come before break out?

See Chart.

Further divergence in fortunes for the two beans today...

 

[The Baptist]

Temprary respite

Hi Two daily candlestick hammers have formed on the arabica chart, temporaryusually point to a temporary or more permanent bottom .

Arabica has been one way down since testing the resistance at 130 and failing.

The second hammer is also an inside day with a higher close and finally the turn comes at support established in 1996 the last time we were this low.

Despite this further proof required to call end to this bear Arab 88.5 is alltime low over 30 years.

My favoured trade is to trade Robusta long which has been far more bouyant during this decline, it will be boosted further if Arabica ceases falling and even further if it climbs a bit.

I maintain that the premium will continue to close with Rob catching Arabica up, which it has tended to do in every Long run Robusta uptrend historically.

Chart below of weekly Arabica and Monthly detailing previous lows and the two hammers. With Relative Value to Gold in Purple at near all time lows over 40 years.

I am not yet convinced this is the begining of the mother of all runs as I still anticipate a Robusta Downleg before the set up is complete.

Also Chart showing relative outperformance of Rob in bull runs.

Enjoy along with The Cape Town sunset..http://www.trade2win.com/boards/images/icons/icon11.gif
Red face

PS it seems I have chart problems apologise I will endeavour to try upload them subsequently.

 

[The Baptist]

Temporary respite

Hi Two daily candlestick hammers have formed on the arabica chart, temporaryusually point to a temporary or more permanent bottom .

Arabica has been one way down since testing the resistance at 130 and failing.

The second hammer is also an inside day with a higher close and finally the turn comes at support established in 1996 the last time we were this low.

Despite this further proof required to call end to this bear Arab 88.5 is alltime low over 30 years.

My favoured trade is to trade Robusta long which has been far more bouyant during this decline, it will be boosted further if Arabica ceases falling and even further if it climbs a bit.

I maintain that the premium will continue to close with Rob catching Arabica up, which it has tended to do in every Long run Robusta uptrend historically.

Chart below of weekly Arabica and Monthly detailing previous lows and the two hammers. With Relative Value to Gold in Purple at near all time lows over 40 years.

I am not yet convinced this is the begining of the mother of all runs as I still anticipate a Robusta Downleg before the set up is complete.

Also Chart showing relative outperformance of Rob in bull runs.

Enjoy along with The Cape Town sunset..http://www.trade2win.com/boards/images/icons/icon11.gif
Red face

PS it seems I have chart problems apologise I will endeavour to try upload them subsequently.

 

[The Baptist]

Charts

The robusta Charts has a relative to Arabica strength grey line and shows an uptrend, Although I only expect upside here if Arabica breaks upward, at the moment it appears to have stemmed its fall for now.

The Arabica S&R chart shows the level of a previous low and alltime low for 30 years.

Good Luck

 

[The Baptist]

Arabica

For those who look to trade Arabica, chart wise I think my initial suspicion will be confirmed, in that the descent has ceased for now, this may only turn out to be a short term counter trend upwards against the back drop of a bear market or it just might be something bigger.

I have been bumped long on Robusta, which while probably the more mature (tired), has moved up further on Arabs cautious bullishness/ceasasation of bearishness.

Good luck, Still having problems getting a 3rd chart up but will try prevail later.

 

[The Baptist]

Arab & Rob runs up! as they hinted they may.

 

[The Baptist]

Arabica

Both Coffees doing well.

Whilst I primarily trade Rob, I couldn't help a small tilt at Arab on the BO of the top of the hammers.

Note the two Hammers in the weekly first chart at Old resistance (viewable in the second chart which is Monthly).

The Arab Chart whilst strongly up at the monthly level is still broadly bearish in terms of dow theory and needs to post more higher Lows and Highs, otherwise it still may test the 88.5 level

 

[The Baptist]

whats the name of this desert?

this board sure has died down of late!

Rob Coffee has had a good run while Arab has base built and ceased its falls.

Hope there will be at least one other to join me making Gazillions when I call 'The Big Baptist BO'

 

[The Baptist]

Coffee Neutral Trade

There has been an opportunity to be Coffee neutral yet making money on a long Robusta short Arab trade.

I have analysed the last 1 year - 6 months period and discovered that the premium of arabica to Robusta is closing ie. in most 5 day trading periods Robusta climbed more than arab or dropped less than arab.

Having said this it has been really strong while arabica has been near all time lows so be careful when placing on your various legs, I still anticipate a down leg for robusta before its eventual break upwards.

I may post the spreadsheet showing the data later.

Good luck

 

[TWI]

OK, so after all the arabica longs have their **** in a sling what is the next great trade? To be honest I have lost patience with this market. I have been on the wrong leg i.e. long Arab and not robusta and now I am flat and wondering if Arabica can ever gets its act together.
What is your call?

 

[The Baptist]

OK, so after all the arabica longs have their **** in a sling what is the next great trade? To be honest I have lost patience with this market. I have been on the wrong leg i.e. long Arab and not robusta and now I am flat and wondering if Arabica can ever gets its act together.
What is your call?

My call apart from that stated above as an interim option. Is to remain weary of Arabica I have never really liked its chart, although you can try pick those occasional up spikes as I did with the two hammers post predicted awhile back.

But I personally do not see the point in this as Robusta is far more positively correlated to any move in Arab.

Si my sugestion is preferably tade Rob long if feeling bullish rather than Arab. Where bearish Arab's chart looks weak.

At the Macro level I still believe Rob may put in a downleg before setting up for a substantial up move, this to be viewed on quarterly / monthly charts some posted previously on this thread with expected course of direction. This long term view will require patience with the big moves possibly coming as late as 2009 or later if the downleg develops.

From the attached spreadsheet you may see in the top right that i have aclculated a 3,67% increase in Rob relative to Arab every 20 trading days overthe last 377 trading days (approx 18 months).

 

[The Baptist]

My call apart from that stated above as an interim option. Is to remain weary of Arabica I have never really liked its chart, although you can try pick those occasional up spikes as I did with the two hammers post predicted awhile back.

But I personally do not see the point in this as Robusta is far more positively correlated to any move in Arab.

Si my sugestion is preferably tade Rob long if feeling bullish rather than Arab. Where bearish Arab's chart looks weak.

At the Macro level I still believe Rob may put in a downleg before setting up for a substantial up move, this to be viewed on quarterly / monthly charts some posted previously on this thread with expected course of direction. This long term view will require patience with the big moves possibly coming as late as 2009 or later if the downleg develops.

From the attached spreadsheet you may see in the top right that i have aclculated a 3,67% increase in Rob relative to Arab every 20 trading days overthe last 377 trading days (approx 18 months).

As stated their is a minor reaction of relative arabica strength given how much further Rob has swung over the last year it may be the case for awhile but Long term Relative Rob should reassert.

 

[The Baptist]

Rob setting up for upside

Rob could recommense up move look for longs from 1832 thru 1850.

 

[The Baptist]

Keep watching Rob

I continue to be long this commodity.

Long term trading hewre will pay substantial dividend 6000+ within a few years, now broken 2000 level from prev post at circa 1500's.

Pile in.. if you play the long game...

 

[The Baptist]

Robusta Downleg done?

Hi Two daily candlestick hammers have formed on the arabica chart, temporaryusually point to a temporary or more permanent bottom .

Arabica has been one way down since testing the resistance at 130 and failing.

The second hammer is also an inside day with a higher close and finally the turn comes at support established in 1996 the last time we were this low.

Despite this further proof required to call end to this bear Arab 88.5 is alltime low over 30 years.

My favoured trade is to trade Robusta long which has been far more bouyant during this decline, it will be boosted further if Arabica ceases falling and even further if it climbs a bit.

I maintain that the premium will continue to close with Rob catching Arabica up, which it has tended to do in every Long run Robusta uptrend historically.

Chart below of weekly Arabica and Monthly detailing previous lows and the two hammers. With Relative Value to Gold in Purple at near all time lows over 40 years.

I am not yet convinced this is the begining of the mother of all runs as I still anticipate a Robusta Downleg before the set up is complete.

Also Chart showing relative outperformance of Rob in bull runs.

Enjoy along with The Cape Town sunset..http://www.trade2win.com/boards/images/icons/icon11.gif
Red face

PS it seems I have chart problems apologise I will endeavour to try upload them subsequently.

Hi All,

Been awhile since I posted on Rob. As alluded to in the above Post I was still awaiting a significant downleg to my Robusta Pattern.

Since this pattern we have had the credit crunch and the related deflationary effect.

As witnessed by Gold I believe the deflationary era if such existed for any sustainable period is/will be over shortly.

This is the final piece in the jigsaw for me in terms of a long run pattern on this commodity, which left the liffe boards for the US in the interim.

It has tried hard to shake me But I will not allow this!

I will be looking for an entry point over the next few weeks for a very long term hold in this commodity.

The Robusta Tree's take as long as Mines to mature to Bean producing age for any shortfalls in demand namely 5 years.

Thats 'Oil tanker turning' slow from when any shortfall is recognised.

Hope you will join me again on our Coffee watch.

 

[The Baptist]

Hello again first time in ages for me posting.

I have been further developing my macro view on all markets in the meantime.

I have come to the conclusion that the trade I called originally now well more than a year or so plus ago, along with stating Gold will hit 1300 Usd when it was then 962 Usd, see other older Gold threads, I all part of a major 'Hyperinflationary' cycle the Western world, particularly the USA, will face as part of this race to destroy currency as a tactic of reducing sovereign debt and QE is a method of doing this, also bailing banks out who then in term buy Gov debt keeping rates low, helps extend the Ponzi scheme a little longer.

As sugar, cocoa, wheat, Soybean complex areshowing all sifts will fly too, of which the Robusta Bean will be one of many. However because of the pattern probably one of the best to trade with a huge key target.

I will return to update on this theme, but look forward to confirming the final Relative 3 high point and loss stops for this trade so others can join me in the trade.

There was a lovely hedge fund short squeeze recently. So I will return with further details, of course as this trade may be inflationary lead (currency base being devalued) our Million quid may not buy what it used to upon target;-) we may just have to size up even more!

Speak soon.

 

[The Baptist]

New Short Term Target 1950

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzDG8duMT98