Retire out on this one trade.

[The Baptist]

Rob up

Just come back from Holidays and a lot of Buy Stops on Rob Coffee were tripped.

Will post Charts later but advise keeping this one on a watch list if not already. I am currently posting a journal update on the journal section of the board, as part of an aggressive target set for the year and its management.

This may mean I am a tad more scace but will lurk non the less inbetween trying to cover the new admin I have committed m trading too.

Good luck

 

[The Baptist]

Arabica on upleg for primary BO

Hi,

It is my view Arabica has taken stock and will break the 130 resisistance on this upleg and probably press a fair bit on.

DaveT I have linked in the chart below and hope my view cheers you up no end especially if right.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/...800x550&d=LOW&b=CANDLE&st=MA(4,9,18);RSI(14);

I have primed a few buy stops in anticipation, your 'buy on recent lows' could turn out highly +ve commentary.

 

[DaveT]

The Baptist -

Thanks. I agree Arabica is now ready to resume it's bull run, and soon break above 1300 basis March.

The Monthly Chart is looking very healthy, from a bull's point of view:

 

[..]

Coffee been

Posted Monthly Robusta Chart DaveT you may recognise' The baptist 3 point Flag formation marked with two blue lines.

Very similar to the 'wedge' you just witnessed and traded in Arabica.

Interesting to note current comparison in price action on your chart to that which occurred before earlier price spike.
:idea:

 

[The Baptist]

Interesting to note current comparison in price action on your chart to that which occurred before earlier price spike.
:idea:

Rob still feels relatively more bullish than Arab at the moment although Arabica continues to set up, could this be the lower cost bean benefits most initially?

 

[The Baptist]

High Volatility and big swings point to falls, I think current Rob Highs will prove S&R for awhile longer than expected, similarly the 130 level in Arabica may stand as Med term resistance.

Not sure to what extent the dollar rebound and Golds subsequent falls (ie. Commodities slump) are effecting Softs or whether the fundamentals are more locally driven.

Long term My primary view remains the same.

 

[TWI]

I have had a short Arabica long Robusta arb on since mid Dec and it is paying off quite nicely. Chart is still in strong trend so will probably stick with it a while longer.
Jan Robustas seems pretty well bid in cash market, Jan/Mar spread went to something like 30 back, would have been good to have some sheds full of that cr*p.

 

[The Baptist]

Robcoffee has made short term 'Baptist 123', expect upside today and next few days on a BO move.

While charts less positive for Arabica there should be some shoreing up after a weak indifferent spell.

 

[The Baptist]

Baptist Back with a 1-2-3, ala Liverpool vs PSV

Hi,

Following upgrading to Vista and losing all passwords, I had been in self imposed Exile.

I wished to post a possible trade on Rob, only to find getting clearance was a few days in getting sorted.

Following today this will now look like a hindinsight post, sorry for that you will need to take me at face value.

Anyway the Rob Coffee had set up with my favourite continuation pattern for upside, 'The Baptist 1-2-3.

I had placed Buy Stops at 1548 a 3 times tested and repellant price level (see chart).

These were stopped in today for a good run up. Although they went above 1584 (intraday) the obvious target point, from previous Support & resistance, I failed to place any limit sells in the system, which I should have done having recognised this level, the price withdrew intraday a fair way back, before closing at this resistance level.

It will be important for the early trade/open to breach and hold on else quick profits should be taken.

The next level for possible resistance have been detailed on the chart, at 1634 and a1682 if the move sustains itself past current resistance.

Note the set up was an upward leaning triangle base and flat top at the 1548. This trade illustrates the value of S&R and looking to the left of those charts for key levels.

Hope the chart comes thru to illustrate this OK.

On some other recent queries on the Board, I remain a long run bull on Rob Coffee for Pippin who noted the silence and abscence of cheerleading on the boards.

PS. Tried to get Chart up, but failed will look to post it tomorrow with help.

 

[The Baptist]

Chart

Hi,

Following upgrading to Vista and losing all passwords, I had been in self imposed Exile.

I wished to post a possible trade on Rob, only to find getting clearance was a few days in getting sorted.

Following today this will now look like a hindinsight post, sorry for that you will need to take me at face value.

Anyway the Rob Coffee had set up with my favourite continuation pattern for upside, 'The Baptist 1-2-3.

I had placed Buy Stops at 1548 a 3 times tested and repellant price level (see chart).

These were stopped in today for a good run up. Although they went above 1584 (intraday) the obvious target point, from previous Support & resistance, I failed to place any limit sells in the system, which I should have done having recognised this level, the price withdrew intraday a fair way back, before closing at this resistance level.

It will be important for the early trade/open to breach and hold on else quick profits should be taken.

The next level for possible resistance have been detailed on the chart, at 1634 and a1682 if the move sustains itself past current resistance.

Note the set up was an upward leaning triangle base and flat top at the 1548. This trade illustrates the value of S&R and looking to the left of those charts for key levels.

Hope the chart comes thru to illustrate this OK.

On some other recent queries on the Board, I remain a long run bull on Rob Coffee for Pippin who noted the silence and abscence of cheerleading on the boards.

PS. Tried to get Chart up, but failed will look to post it tomorrow with help.

Also Note the big Volume day and Money Flow index break into the top 20% range.

Please exscuse the Cape Town Night skyline, I Have multiple screens and the printscreen function does not islotae the primary one but all, hence the picture on the left accompanying the chart.

 

[The Baptist]

Finally for Stops

Candlestick charting states place a Stop at 50% of a big belt hold days move. In This case at the 1564 pt (midway of belt at 1548 Low & 1580 Candle High).

Looking at the Intraday action there was only one major pullback after the initial break and sell off this made a low of 1564 in the afternoon, Double confirmation for stop placement just below this level.

Hope this aspect adds value to 'In trade ' management thinking, I found most literature get's hung up purely on entries and little is done on 'In trade' management.

the final chart Includes the stop placement tags plus an intraday Chart showing confirmation of Stop.

 

[TWI]

With any luck this could be the start of a break we have been waiting too long for. Been carrying some of this on my book for a while and taking pain. Yesterday I increased Arabica longs. Looking like it has the best chance in a long time here. With all the related products already taken up and commercials still hand to mouth, worth a go for sure.

 

[The Baptist]

Rob more Robust

With any luck this could be the start of a break we have been waiting too long for. Been carrying some of this on my book for a while and taking pain. Yesterday I increased Arabica longs. Looking like it has the best chance in a long time here. With all the related products already taken up and commercials still hand to mouth, worth a go for sure.

TWI - Arabica was close to previous support around 105 but generally in my view does not post as positive a chart as Robusta which is the cheaper bean.

We may need to see, in the initial instance, a narrowing of the premium of Arabica over Robusta, before Rob's upside is more evenly shared between the beans.

A relative performance chart shows Rob's strength over Arabica of recent. Whilst over the long run since 1979 Arabica has been the stronger, Since 2005 Rob has been in a steep ascendancy in perfomance to Arabica .

For this reason I trade Rob to the long side over Arabica. However this is only my view and over the long run18 months to 5 years I am bullish over the full range.

Good luck with your trade.

See Relative Chart performance

 

[TWI]

Thanks for the excelelnt analysis.
I will stick to Arabica this time because I think fundamentals at origin are supportive and it really is one of the cheap commodities now which has very little forward cover in commercial books.
As we come into frost season I will definitely be hoping some Brazillian farmers are shivering hard, about time we had a good frost and with the recent bizarre US wheat weather.....

On subject of grains, check out the Z/Z spread of Chicago/Kansas wheat.

 

[The Baptist]

Thanks TWI.

The Failure to close above 1584 on Rob, ( My selected resistance area) saw me take most of my position off, for profits.

Rob may proceed and climb further but given this latest days unconvincing price action so soon after a BO means it is probably not a high probability trade anymore, so short term caution advised 1548 should be first strong support after1564/6.

 

[TWI]

Yep, coffee never fails to disappoint. I think they may have a go at trashing it monday. I did not like Fridays action at all. I continue with the Arabica position but will not be building it .

 

[fastnet]

Thanks for the excelelnt analysis.
I will stick to Arabica this time because I think fundamentals at origin are supportive and it really is one of the cheap commodities now which has very little forward cover in commercial books.
As we come into frost season I will definitely be hoping some Brazillian farmers are shivering hard, about time we had a good frost and with the recent bizarre US wheat weather.....

On subject of grains, check out the Z/Z spread of Chicago/Kansas wheat.

Hi TWI - noticed your comment about the wheat spread.

I'm in the July spread which is ready for a move - I wondered why you favoured the Dec spread?

Grateful, as ever, for any insights . .

Cheers

FN

 

[DaveT]

Re: Arabica Coffee: Possible BEAR FLAG on Weekly Chart.

For TWI and others trading Arabica.

A short-term bottom has been made, it would seem.

However, it may only be very short-term, by the looks of this BEAR FLAG developing on the ARABICA WEEKLY chart.

Look at my attached chart. I've highlighted 2 previous Bear Flags (in 2005 and 2006) - each one formed during the March-may timeframe.

Here we are again in that Seasonal timeframe.

MACD looks about to cross below the 0 line, as it did on the Breakdown of the 2005 and 2006 Bear Flags.

Whilst we may get a little seasonal rally first, it may only be to the top of the flag, then down we go again to new lows for Harvest pressure, by July.

The July seasonal low looks the most probable time to load up with longs, not before.

I could be wrong, ofcourse. Markets can and do often surprise.

 

[TWI]

DaveT, thanks for your analysis. I will have a good look at that tomorow.

fastnet - N/N would be fine also as you may make when you roll to Z but it is something I am putting on to ride for a long time probably to Nov and I noticed in previous years the spread does not really start to get going, if close to par at this time of year, before Jun/Jul.

 

[TWI]

Well, it saw me off today...what a lovely way to start the week.