price & stops

[Grey1]

Nice going at deviating from the subject. However, as memory doesn't fail me, you asked me to put on a swing trade where I clearly said I don't make calls, AND I only traded intraday. I joined in your party nonetheless and although that particular trade got stopped out, my technical analysis was spot on since it predicted the market would fall much further.

Let's not kid ourselves... the reason I got banned was because you couldn't believe what was happening when the market broke the March lows. Someone who is supposed to be such a proficient trader, seems to forget one cardinal rule: the market is always right, no matter how brazenly one might declare otherwise.

Now, I think it would be best to stay on topic and answer the question:
How much wider are the stops of you (or anyone else from TT) today compared to 6 months ago? And would you be able to trade with a 1 point stop on the ES?



I've yet to see a single trade live from you. But markets are open Monday, and this thread is fine for me! I'll be especially interested in the stop size.

Firstly I asked you to give a live call as you kept lecturing our trader and to prove to you that you would FAIL I asked you to give a LIVE call and you FAILED to perform .

You was behaving exactly the same way as you are doing now LOADS of TECHNICAL SOUND ALIKE comments with nothing to back it up with ,, YOUR STOP LOSS WAS FAR TOO TIGHT AND YOU FAILED TO perform , As simple as that.

You said you have not seen my LIVE calls,,

I have given 7 LIVE seminar with all LIVE CALLS on PALTALK TECHNICAL TRADER ROOM with 100s of traders from this BB with NO LOSING day ,, I have also had 100 of people again from this BB in my own house to watch me trading with NO LOSING day ,, I am also giving a LIVE trading day on 24th of OCT with another 100 members of this BB,,

NO way on the 24th of OCT i am going to lose either,,, Fancy a bet against me ? If yes the loser gives £1000 to T2W to be sent to a charity of their choice ,,, Good enough ?

grey1

 

[firewalker99]

Firstly I asked you to give a live call as you kept lecturing our trader and to prove to you that you would FAIL I asked you to give a LIVE call and you FAILED to perform .
grey1

I ran a live intraday trading forum here for 6 months and more... don't tell me about failing to perform.

I am trying to stay on topic, but you are very good at ignoring my questions. Not to mention very selective on answering the questions too. While you're at it, could you please explain how the DOW could fall below the March lows while you said for weeks and weeks people should not get worried and the DOW would quote "never" break lower? Or should I help refresh your memory? The posts are still in the public DOW thread, but I'll save you the embarrassment of pasting them here.

Instead of bragging, why don't you tell us why traders should place their stops based on the volatility, if they can - by studying the market - place them at a much closer safety level, putting much less money at risk?

I am not a good gambler, so I don't place bets. I'm sure you are a better one, since placing stops based on volatility is just calculated gambling...

Shame such an interesting topic goes to waste because of your personal issues with tight stops. You should know it's a statistical flaw to generalize things: it's not because you can't trade with a 1-2 point stop size, that it cannot be done. Good trading to you.

 

[Grey1]

So what it basically comes down to is measuring the ATR of your timeframe and putting it into a simple formula and placing the stop, am I right? Let me ask you, are the targets a measure of the ATR/volatility too? And if not, why not?

Both stop and target must be a measure of volatilty model you use. A simple model is ATR but I use other models to measure implied volatility

Now we are getting some where lol ##The more volatile the less pos size and wider stop to cater for the volatilty . This way the cost of tight stop wont affect the retrun distribution

grey1

 

[Grey1]

I am trying to stay on topic, but you are very good at ignoring my questions. Instead of bragging, why don't you tell us why traders should place their stops based on the volatility, if they can - by studying the market - place them at a much closer safety level, putting much less money at risk?

I am not a good gambler, so I don't place bets. I'm sure you are a better one, since placing stops based on volatility is just calculated gambling...

You probably are a bad gambler hence no betting against me

you ask ,,So why should traders adjust their stop based on volatility ? I am not going to anwer this question again and again if you care to search through my other posts..

In one simple explanation .. RISK managment starts with Volatilty . Volatility = RISK means money gone out of your bank means LEARN IT and TAME it

TAME volatilty and you have TAMED the market,, tight stop loss is not going to help you out if volatilty is not understood

Grey1

 

[firewalker99]

Both stop and target must be a measure of volatilty model you use. A simple model is ATR but I use other models to measure implied volatility

Now we are getting some where lol ##The more volatile the less pos size and wider stop to cater for the volatilty . This way the cost of tight stop wont affect the retrun distribution

grey1

Aha. Exactly as I thought. And I'm not ashamed to admit I used the same basic tool ATR for determining my stop & target when I set my first steps in the trading arena. But if, after watching a chart for some weeks, you are still convinced that this is the optimal way to 'catch a big swing' or to 'trade with minimal risk' then I am disappointed, frankly I rated you higher.

For the trader who is interested in entering and exiting where the market tells them to, any calculated method is nothing but a mechanical approach, denying himself the opportunity to squeeze more money out of the market. Let your eyes tell you when to enter and when to exit, not your calculator.

 

[firewalker99]

TAME volatilty and you have TAMED the market,, tight stop loss is not going to help you out if volatilty is not understood

Grey1

You see, that's not the purpose. Like Paul71 said, use volatility to your advantage. Don't fight it.

I couldn't have put it any better than wasp:
"If a trader feels his stop should be wider due to volatile conditions, perhaps they should actually be reevaluating their entries."

 

[Grey1]

Firewalker

Can i kindly ask you to come to PAL TALK room on 24th OCT and use your tight stop and call the market couple of times..
I am not being rude here I think you need to show traders of this BB that you are not bu** crapping and you know what you talking about all in REAL TIME.

DO we have a deal ? I am challenging your concept and not you as a person. So nothing personal ..

Grey1

 

[firewalker99]

Firewalker

Can i kindly ask you to come to PAL TALK room on 24th OCT and use your tight stop and call the market couple of times..
I am not being rude here I think you need to show traders of this BB that you are not bu** crapping and you know what you talking about all in REAL TIME.

DO we have a deal ? I am challenging your concept and not you as a person. So nothing personal ..

Grey1

Everybody who wants to see me trade live, can join the chatroom at TL where I am each day. Or they can check the history files right now, and see how I took a long on the NQ on Thursday (1211), with a one point stop, and a 25 point target (just to name a recent example).

This was logged on their servers:
[15:30:21] firewalker: long 1211
[15:30:49] firewalker: should break up to 23
[15:31:27] firewalker: stop breakven, straight away
[15:32:06] firewalker: this is what I'm talking about, this long didn't even go against me by a tick (so to speak)
[15:32:16] firewalker: and 1 minute later the stop was breakeven
[15:32:57] firewalker: [15:30:49] firewalker: should break up to 23 > here we are
[15:33:05] firewalker: half out +12
and so it goes on... until I closed the position later on locking in +25pts

You see? There is no need to risk 5 or 10 points, just because the volatility is that high.
And this example is even better, it shows how - if you are right - you can immediately protect your position by moving your stop to breakeven. Perhaps eventually it will all start to make sense to you.

Meanwhile you can review the 318 live trades I made on this forum. Most of them are, contrary to yours, open for review in the public DOW thread where everybody can still see them and could see them at the time I made them.

So if you are interested in this "concept", do your homework and read what I posted. It's all there for everyone to see.

And for the record, "tight stops" is not "MY" concept.
Good night.

 

[Grey1]

Everybody who wants to see me trade live, can join the chatroom at TL where I am each day. Or they can review the 318 live trades I made on this forum. Most of them are, contrary to yours, open for review in the public DOW thread where everybody can still see them and could see them at the time I made them.

And for the record, "tight stops" is not "MY" concept.
Good night.

Fair enough , so you are not coming ,, I knew you would not,, I rest my case young man . I will be in pal talk room to kick ass on 24th to make $$$ for my buddies . I just donot understand how you made 318 calls and not prepared to make it to 320 lol

Good night and sweet dream

 

[firewalker99]

Fair enough , so you are not coming ,, I knew you would not,, I rest my case young man . I will be in pal talk room to kick ass on 24th to make $$$ for my buddies . I just donot understand how you made 318 calls and not prepared to make it to 320 lol

Good night and sweet dream

Why use a chat room where no one else can see us except your buddies?

I suggest you show us your positions either here in the public BB (with moderation of a neutral person), or at the same place where I post them, where EVERYBODY can see them, completely anonymously, in a real time chatroom. Or do you only perform in front of a home crowd?

Shut up or put up. The choice is yours. If you choose not to accept, I think we can all draw our conclusions.

 

[Grey1]

Why use a chat room where no one else can see us except your buddies?

I suggest you show us your positions either here in the public BB (with moderation of a neutral person), or at the same place where I post them, where EVERYBODY can see them, completely anonymously, in a real time chatroom. Or do you only perform in front of a home crowd?

Shut up or put up. The choice is yours.

DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH,,

ALL my calls and TEXT are recorded on CD and is on Technical Trader BB for free down load,, with 100s people from this BB following my calls,, Ask them if any of them have ever lost a penny . They all made $$$ too,,

This is the LINK

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tec...-seminar-files-now-rapidshare-except-feb.html

So are ya going to come to pal talk or you need to take the dog for a wash on the 24th ?
I think if you do attend the seminar then even if ya fail to perform it does not mean jack **** because trading is a statistical game and 10 good or bad calls does not mean a thing but the fact that you donot want to come is more important to me than YOUR PERFROMANCE .



grey1

 

[firewalker99]

DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH,,

ALL my calls and TEXT are recorded on CD and is on Technical Trader BB for free down load,, with 100s people following my calls,, Ask them if any of them have ever lost a penny

This is the LINK

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tec...-seminar-files-now-rapidshare-except-feb.html

So are ya going to come to pal talk or you need to take the dog for a wash on the 24th ?
I think if you do attend the seminar then even if ya fail to perform it does not mean jack **** because trading is a statistical game and 10 good or bad calls does not mean a thing but the fact that you donot want to come is more important to me than YOUR PERFROMANCE .

grey1

Unfortunately I do not have permission to access that link. And as far as I remember, I never saw "live" trades in TT, only information at the end of the day to tell people "you closed out or sold out" and they should do the same. Meanwhile stocks went down a lot though.

As for someone losing their money, the people that disagreed apparently got expelled from the room (and I'm not talking about myself)... I'm not going to put names on it, just use the 'search' feature. I am curious though, with 100 people following your calls, not a single one lost money while they held on to their positions because you said the market would never go lower then March?

10 bad trades will still don't prove a thing, that's correct, since I probably lose as much on 10 trades as you do on one.

Anyhow, there's not much more I can say. The invitation if still open, should you reconsider and want to see how to trade with tight stops you know where to find me.

Otherwise, keep calculating where your stops need to be, I'll let the market tell me. It is intrinsically wiser than any calculator out there.

 

[Grey1]

Unfortunately I do not have permission to access that link. And as far as I remember, I never saw "live" trades in TT, only information at the end of the day to tell people "you closed out or sold out" and they should do the same. Meanwhile stocks went down a lot though.

As .

You have no access because members asked me to BAN you for fighting .

PAL TALK IS A REAL TIME CHAT ROOM , it is a VOICE AND VIDEO room .. when i call people follow , Nothing delayed or dodgy ,,,

Every calls was in real time and every body can testify this,, You see you donot even want to accept that and have no respect for 100 of people who attended my day ,

TO give you few names so you can PM them and ask them lol

BSD, TRADER333, Charlton ,, JAYJAY, TRENDI( adviserto T2W),sirlostmoney ,Belflan,leovirgo,evostic, Blue ray,JBZERO,Wheezgeezer and many many more , In fact their name is all on the BB

grey1

 

[Grey1]

firewalker,

This is a link to start you on the right path in understanding the risk managment,,
I apply the principle of diversification on my live trading day to reduse risk and hedge myself against the market spike,, For example

on my previous seminar we all went short RIMM and i called the market short,, My short call on the market was out by 20 points but RIMM did not follow the market which means bychoosing a weaker stock than the cash I can reduce risk
I also took more than 1 pos which means even if RIMM would have gone against me still i had not put my eggs in 1 basket hence risk reduction and all done in real time and every body else was in 2 trades too ,, some times in 3 trades (in my second seminar )

so what am i trying to say here,,

a) traders must learn to diversify risk
b) traders must trade a risk adjusted instrument against an index to reduce risk

This is risk managment,,,

Now what is the point of worrying about your stop when you can reduce risk in many other practical ways and easily implemented .
stop is stop and we all have it but if volatilty increases then a tight stop will cost you unless it is wide enough to cater for the volatilty .
Today's market is not same as 3 month ago,, much more volatile hence trader should understand the NEW risk attached to trading and reduce pos size till the dust settle but mean while look into risk reduction methodologies common amongst pros

this is the link

http://www.michaelwood.co.uk/newsletters/oct06news.pdf

Grey1

 

[new_trader]

24th of OCT I am giving my 7th LIVE trading seminar on pal talk with 100s of people from this BB. Are you going to come and show our traders how to catch a big move LIVE with tight stop or you washing your hair ? If you do come I can arrange so we both trade along side each other and our friends make money from our calls .


I appreciate if you say YES or NO ,,,

Grey1

No, I’m not washing my hair and this challenge means you fail to grasp what I am saying. For a start, I don’t trade in live chat rooms because it upsets my concentration and figuring, I’ve tried it before and lost money. I'm also not saying that you don't make money trading your way. I’ve tried and FW has tried and Wasp has tried to explain what SOCRATES explained - Stops are dependant on SKILL. This isn’t saying that everyone will always make money trading with a 1-2 point stop on the ES contract. However, in keeping losses small, it will allow an aspirant to make more trades and get a better understanding of when to go long, when to go short or when to abstain. As they progress and have new realisations and acquire more skill and understanding through study and practice, they will find that the losses they were once experiencing will become break even, and then profits. They will experience the market moving immediately in their favour as soon as they enter. The stop is to protect against misjudgement, not volatility.

The problem is (and trust me, I am still learning painfully) is that a trader will sometimes break their rules or abandon a robust methodology to test a new theory or audition a new idea and they will experience losses, but thankfully these are kept small.


What if someone took out a long trade on the FTSE 100 on Monday with a 3500 point stop? They would say that you are wasting your time with all your precious risk analysis etc. In time, they will prove that they were right and you are wrong.

 

[Paul71]

BSD, put up a thread on the general board yesterday, it started with a small piece from B Steinbarger. One of Bretts first sentences was about "the many paradoxes of trading", i repped BSD purely for this comment alone.

Human nature sees volatilty and thinks "...well, i'm not having that, i'll deal with you Mr volatility,...i'll just widen my stop..", that's a natural reaction and the paradox, it's fighting fire with fire and there's only one winner....it ain't the trader.

I think it was Livermore who said the public gets what the public wants.

 

[trader_dante]

I’ve tried and FW has tried and Wasp has tried to explain what SOCRATES explained - Stops are dependant on SKILL

Tight stops do not, firstly, reduce your risk.

Correct POSITION SIZING reduces your risk.

But I will concede with you in part: Risk aside, trading successfully with tight stops, if anything, defines, at some level, a skill in ENTRY.

But "skill" in trading is a very broad term.

The real outcome of a trade is only defined by the EXIT.

Arguing over stop placement is just a chance for all these "elitists" to prove how clever they are:

"I called the move with a stop of just 3 ticks using the DOM and T&S and Market Profile and the Charts...and then I caught a nice 25 point swing, aren't I clever?

Yes, you are much better than me. I got in a little later when I thought the probability was higher...and used a 50 tick stop to make 250 points off that swing."

P&L defines skill. Nothing more. Nothing less.

If we started with an equal amount and I make more money than you using 400 point stops whilst you use 5 point stops, I have traded more successfully. There is no room for argument on this.

Whether I blow up in the future does not come down to it. Current P&L is just a snapshot in time. But when that snapshot is made, current skill is assessed.

 

[Grey1]

The problem is (and trust me, I am still learning painfully) is that a trader will sometimes break their rules or abandon a robust methodology to test a new theory or audition a new idea and they will experience losses, but thankfully these are kept small.


.

My man ,,

learning is OK ,,, having a tight stop is fine as long as you know there is a premium to be paid for both wide and tight stop. They both are as ugly as each other,, How ever you need to have a meaning full stop level to pay the least premium . This level that we use in system trading comes from volatilty .

Wide stop is counter inititive and sound wrong and tight stop sound much more pro and relaxing but the fact remains that they both cost you ,, It is up to you to find the least costly level .


grey1

 

[Grey1]

New trader,

can I suggest next time you trade to reduce your pos size and have a wider stop loss and let your trade more breathing space. By reducing your pos size you reduce risk as i said before and then let your profit run MORE instead to cater for reduction in your position size.

Grey1

 

[firewalker99]

Tight stops do not, firstly, reduce your risk.
Correct POSITION SIZING reduces your risk.

Oh come on! If you put your stop at 10 points from your entry or 5, how much can you lose in both cases? Of course do tight stops reduce your risk exposure to the market! It's as simple as black and white. And yes, lowering your position size does the same thing. Which is what most people will do in volatile markets, denying themselves the opportunity to pick up more points when the market offers it.

The real outcome of a trade is only defined by the EXIT.

There is on one hand the skill in placing the stop, and in the other hand the skill in exiting. Exiting a positing profitable and at the right time, is a completely different matter on it's own. And I'm sure some people are more proficient in planning their exits then others. But this is completely irrelevant to the stop issue. The first thing traders should be concerned about is managing their entry: i.e. the risk. Later down the road, the reward will take care of itself (to a certain extent). It goes without saying that a lot of work should be put into planning the exit!

Arguing over stop placement is just a chance for all these "elitists" to prove how clever they are:

"I called the move with a stop of just 3 ticks using the DOM and T&S and Market Profile and the Charts...and then I caught a nice 25 point swing, aren't I clever?

DOM? T&S? MP? never used any of it. Glad I'm not elitist then

Yes, you are much better than me. I got in a little later when I thought the probability was higher...and used a 50 tick stop to make 250 points off that swing."

Show me any trade and I'll show you there was a way to place your stop closer.

If we started with an equal amount and I make more money than you using 400 point stops whilst you use 5 point stops, I have traded more successfully. There is no room for argument on this.

You will have had a better exit strategy. Which, like I said before, is a totally different matter and has nothing to do with how one approaches his entries. There is no reason you can't have both an optimum exit strategy ànd an optimum entry strategy.

Whether I blow up in the future does not come down to it. Current P&L is just a snapshot in time. But when that snapshot is made, current skill is assessed.

For someone who (used to?) give out very decent advice and information to newbies, this is disappointing to read. "Whether I blow up in the future does not come down to it." ??? Please... that's exactly the mindset that will get many killed.